2022 NFL MVP Odds: Buying or Selling Jalen Hurts as the New Front-Runner

Five players still have reasonable odds of taking home the NFL MVP award going into the final four games of the 2022 season.

Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa are the only players with +2000 odds or better—implying probability of approximately 5 percent or better—of winning the award.

Geno Smith is a distant sixth at +8000, giving him just a shade over 1 percent chance of being named the league's Most Valuable Player.

While it is still conceivable the Seattle Seahawks signal-caller caps off his wildly unexpected breakout campaign with an equally unlikely piece of hardware, it's almost certain that one of the five players ahead of him will earn it.

With that in mind, here's a look at the latest odds for each realistic MVP candidate and whether you should be buying or selling their chances of claiming the honors.

NFL MVP odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of December 13.

MVP Odds: +2000

The Miami Dolphins fully committed to Tua Tagovaila this offseason and the third-year quarterback rewarded the franchise by developing into one of the game's top options at his position.

While Tagovailoa has played the best football of his burgeoning career, the 24-year-old hasn't been on the field enough to win an MVP award (missed two full games and parts of others with various injuries) and has had some issues with consistency even when he's been healthy.

Tagovailoa has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 3,004 yards and 22 touchdowns against a mere five interceptions in 11 games.

Although those are respectable numbers, the 'Phins signal-caller has been prone to poor showings such as the one he had in Week 14 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

In a game that the team needed to win to keep pace in a tight AFC East race, Tagovailoa completed a season-low 35.7 percent of his throws for only 145 yards and one touchdown.

The performance resulted in a 23-17 defeat, leaving Miami (8-5) two games back of Buffalo in the division and could eventually lead to the Dolphins missing the playoffs entirely, as there are three 7-6 teams behind them.

Factor in that Tagovailoa has added little value with his legs—rushing for just 63 yards and zero scores on 21 carries this season, and it's easy to see a scenario in which the Dolphins quarterback fails to garner even a single MVP vote.

Selling Tua Tagovailoa's 2022 MVP chances.

MVP Odds: +2000

The Buffalo Bills are sitting atop the AFC standings and are a great candidate to secure a first-round playoff bye, but even with this stellar team performance, it isn't looking likely that quarterback Josh Allen will take home his first MVP award.

Allen has unquestionably been the catalyst for Buffalo's success on the offensive side of the ball, but his 2022 season isn't even the best of his young career.

The 26-year-old has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,553 yards and 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in 13 games. He's also had another quality year on the ground, piling up 628 yards and six scores on 99 rushes.

While Allen has equaled his rushing touchdown total, has a slightly higher completion percentage and is on pace for more passing yards than his 2021 season, he's on pace for fewer touchdown passes.

The fifth-year veteran had his best chance of earning MVP in 2020 when he finished second in voting following a 4,544-yard, 37-touchdown, 10-interception performance through the air and chipped in eight scores on the ground.

He was still well behind Aaron Rodgers in the race, however, and it appears he'll once again finish with only a few votes at best in 2022.

It would take a truly herculean final month for Allen to usurp the three players currently ahead of him and become a serious contender for this hardware.

Selling Josh Allen's 2022 MVP chances.

MVP Odds: +750

Joe Burrow cemented himself as a superstar when he led the Cincinnati Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance last season, but it will be tough for the young quarterback to take home his first MVP award this year.

While Burrow has been playing fantastic football over the last few months, a sluggish start to the campaign likely doom his chances.

Over the five weeks of the season, Burrow was performing at a rather pedestrian level. He racked up 1,316 yards and nine touchdowns in that span, but also threw five interceptions and led his team to just two wins.

Since the start of Week 6, Burrow has been firing on all cylinders and once again has the Bengals looking like a championship contender. The club has lost just once since then while the quarterback has tallied up 2,369 yards and 18 touchdown passes against a mere four interceptions. He's also rushed for 149 yards and four scores on 42 carries.

Had Burrow kept that pace for the entire year, he'd have a much better chance at earning the MVP award. But the two players ahead of Burrow—Mahomes and Hurts—have been far more consistent in 2022, a factor that will almost certainly come into play when voters make their selection.

While the Bengals are once again a force to be reckoned with heading into the postseason, late MVP bettors will want to stay away from Burrow when making their wagers.

Selling Joe Burrow's 2022 MVP chances

MVP Odds: +200

Patrick Mahomes has done an incredible job elevating his play to an MVP level during a season in which it appeared he could take a step back.

Mahomes lost his top weapon in Tyreek Hill in the offseason and went into the campaign with a slew of unproven wideouts that he lacked rapport with, but the Kansas City Chiefs star has answered the call to put together one of his finest years yet.

The 27-year-old is leading the league by a wide margin in both passing touchdowns (33) and yards—his 4,160 passing yards puts him in striking distance of Peyton Manning's single-season record of 5,477, although Mahomes will get the benefit of an extra game—but he still has work to do if he's going to claim his second MVP award.

It won't help Mahomes' case if his Chiefs finish anywhere other than first in the AFC this year. If the playoffs began today, Kansas City would have the No. 2 seed behind the Buffalo Bills on a tiebreaker with both teams owning identical 10-3 records.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are running away with the NFC and are the only team in the league with more than 10 wins at 12-1. Given Philadelphia's success, voters may give Hurts the nod in a tight race simply for leading his side to a better record.

One area Mahomes won't be able to contest Hurts in is on the ground. The Eagles quarterback is making a massive impact with his legs this year, amassing 686 yards and 10 touchdowns on 139 totes.

While Mahomes has flashed some scrambling ability, he has just 280 yards and a pair of scores on 47 carries this year.

Factor in the way that Hurts has managed to defy expectations even more than Mahomes has—Philadelphia even reportedly tried to bring in Russell Wilson and considered other veteran signal-callers following a playoff loss last year—and it's easy to see voters leaning toward the Eagles' signal-caller and the exciting narrative surrounding his incredible rise.

That could make all the difference if both players finish out the season on their current trajectories and claim the top seeds in their respective conferences.

Selling Patrick Mahomes' 2022 MVP chances.

MVP Odds: -175

After trailing Patrick Mahomes in the MVP race all season—at least according to the odds at DraftKings—Hurts finally pulled ahead in Week 14.

With his latest showing, the rising Philadelphia Eagles star is now up to 3,157 passing yards and 22 touchdowns with a 68 percent completion rate and a mere three interceptions.

Hurts had another strong outing on Sunday, this time against the New York Giants in a key rivalry matchup. The quarterback led his team to a statement 48-22 victory while completing 21-of-31 passes for 217 yards and two scores while adding 77 yards and another touchdown on seven carries.

While it wasn't Hurts' top statistical performance of 2022, he gained ground in a week when his main competition for the MVP honor faltered.

Mahomes put up some big numbers in Week 14 but also had a season-high three interceptions, which gave the lowly Denver Broncos life in an eventual 34-28 Chiefs win.

Joe Burrow, the other main competitor for the MVP hardware, failed to separate this past weekend as well. He helped guide the Cincinnati Bengals to their fifth straight victory, but he also posted his lowest completion percentage of the year (54.6) and had his lowest yardage total since Week 9 (239).

Considering how well Hurts is playing and how he's showing no signs of stopping, it's going to be tough for anyone to catch him over the last month of the season.

Buying Jalen Hurts' 2022 MVP chances.

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