Keep or Ship Out? Making the Tough Call on MLB's Top Rumored Trade Candidates

A fast-moving market in free agency could mean the MLB trade scene is more active than normal over the next few weeks and into January.

Now that Carlos Rodón has made his choice and signed with the New York Yankees, all that remains of free agency's top tier is shortstop Dansby Swanson, so for teams still looking to plug holes, the solution could be on the trade block.

Ahead we've highlighted each of the biggest rumored and speculative trade candidates from around the MLB landscape, from the Toronto Blue Jays' abundance of catching talent to the recent rumblings that Atlanta Braves ace Max Fried could become available.

From there, we gave our take on whether those players should be shipped out or held heading into the 2023 season.

The emergence of Daulton Varsho and Jake McCarthy in 2022, coupled with the arrival of top prospects Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas, has created a logjam in the Arizona Diamondbacks outfield.

Not surprisingly, the team is entertaining the idea of dealing from that strength, though Carroll is "off-limits" in trade talks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Rosenthal goes on to note that Varsho is the least likely of the three remaining outfielders to be moved. That makes sense given the fact that he's the most established of the three and offers the added value of handling occasional starts behind the plate.

The D-backs' best choice would be to flip Thomas while his upside is still high enough to drive his value. That's not to say the 22-year-old can't still be an impact player, but he looked overmatched in his first taste of the big leagues with a 76 OPS+ in 411 plate appearances, and his batted-ball metrics are not pretty.

A team in need of center field help could place a premium on his standout defense, and that would help Arizona maximize its return.

Verdict: Trade Alek Thomas

The Toronto Blue Jays have two of the best all-around catchers in baseball, with Alejandro Kirk (No. 4) and Danny Jansen (No. 12) both earning a place on our ranking of the top 25 players at the position based on 2022 production.

They also have an exciting young up-and-comer in Gabriel Moreno, who began the 2022 season as the No. 7 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America. The 22-year-old hit .319/.356/.377 for a 111 OPS+ in 73 plate appearances in his first MLB action.

With top free agents Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez both signed and Sean Murphy traded by the Oakland Athletics, the Blue Jays organization is an obvious place for teams that still need catching help to turn to.

Hot take: Toronto should keep all three of them.

The best DH option for the Blue Jays is whoever is not catching that day, but teams are usually hesitant to use their backup catcher in that role in case something happens to the starter.

Keeping all three and relying on two to handle the starting catcher and designated hitter roles each day is a great way to keep all three fresh without stretching the roster too thin or entering a situation where an emergency catcher is needed.

Established catching talent will always be in demand, so if a pressing need arises at midseason, the Blue Jays can always revisit trade talks. For now, they should hold their most obvious trade chips.

Verdict: Hold all three

The Tampa Bay Rays had a difficult time finding at-bats for all of their infielders last year, and that was with starting second baseman Brandon Lowe suiting up for just 65 games while battling injury.

With Lowe and Wander Franco expected to be the everyday double-play tandem and Yandy Díaz likely to be an everyday guy at one of the corner spots, the remaining playing time will be sparse.

Jonathan Aranda, Isaac Paredes, Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján are all projected for a spot on the Opening Day roster, while top prospect Curtis Mead is also expected to be MLB-ready at some point in 2023.

Walls has limited value as a glove-first player, Aranda is the least established of the bunch and Paredes was one of the team's best power threats in 2022 with 20 home runs in 381 plate appearances.

That leaves Bruján as the most logical trade chip, and he happens to be out of minor league options.

The 24-year-old earned a spot on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list each of the past four seasons before finally exhausting his prospect status in 2022. A career .288/.371/.424 hitter with 221 steals across 565 games in the minors, he has the hit tool and elite speed to be a table-setter at the top of the lineup.

Verdict: Trade Vidal Bruján

The Miami Marlins have one of baseball's best collections of young starting pitchers, but that doesn't mean much if you don't have the offensive firepower to give them enough run support to succeed.

Last season, the Marlins starting pitchers ranked eighth in the majors with a 3.70 ERA, yet they won just 69 games due in large part to an offense that checked in near the bottom of the league in batting average (.230, 27th), OPS (.657, 27th), home runs (144, 24th) and runs scored (586, 28th).

This report makes perfect sense, then:

Pablo López (32 GS, 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 174 K, 180.0 IP), Jesús Luzardo (18 GS, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 120 K, 100.2 IP), Braxton Garrett (17 GS, 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 90 K, 88.0 IP) and Edward Cabrera (14 GS, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 75 K, 71.2 IP) all have multiple years of club control remaining.

From that group, López is the closest to reaching free agency with two years of arbitration left, but he also has the best track record of MLB success, making him the safest target for contenders.

It would hurt to lose their No. 2 starter, but the Marlins are not going anywhere without significant offensive upgrades.

Verdict: Trade Pablo López

The Chicago White Sox sent one high-priced closer packing last offseason when they flipped Craig Kimbrel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for AJ Pollock, and they could deal from the back of the bullpen once again this winter.

"The White Sox have fielded numerous calls on their All-Star closer [Liam Hendriks], and although Chicago isn't actively shopping Hendriks, there is a realistic possibility he could be moved," Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote.

From a trade-target standpoint, the 33-year-old is still guaranteed $29.3 million over the next two seasons in the form of a $14.3 million salary for 2023 and a $15 million option for 2024 that automatically vests if he is traded or turns into deferred money if the option is declined.

An All-Star for the third time in 2022, he converted 37 of 41 save chances with a 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in 58 appearances.

It's been a quiet offseason for the White Sox aside from signing Mike Clevinger to a one-year deal, and it's fair to ask whether they view themselves as contenders in 2023, or if this will be more of a retooling year.

Either way, if the right offer comes along, they shouldn't hesitate to move their high-priced closer. Kendall Graveman has the stuff to slide into the closer's role, and the bullpen is still deep enough to not be a glaring weakness.

Verdict: Trade Liam Hendriks

This month, Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Minnesota Twins were receiving calls on veteran outfielder Max Kepler.

Now, after missing out on re-signing Carlos Correa, the Twins might be more open to discussing trades as their outlook for the upcoming season has taken a hit by losing their star shortstop.

Kepler, 29, is entering the final guaranteed season of the five-year, $32.1 million extension he signed with the Twins. He also has a reasonable $10 million club option for 2024, so he could be more than just a one-year rental.

While he has produced a middling 96 OPS+ in 936 plate appearances over the last two seasons, Kepler is not far removed from a 36-homer, 4.0-WAR campaign in 2019, and with the outfield market dwindling in free agency, he represents an intriguing buy-low target.

Meanwhile, the Twins have Byron Buxton in center field and Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino and the versatile Nick Gordon all in the mix for playing time at the corner outfield spots.

The New York Yankees are one team that has shown interest in the Twins' outfield surplus, per the New York Post's Joel Sherman. Kepler would solve their need for another corner outfielder, while Yankee Stadium offers an ideal backdrop for a bounce-back season. Even if it's just a flip for prospects, trading Kepler makes sense for the Twins to open up playing time for the young guys.

Verdict: Trade Max Kepler

After trading second baseman Kolten Wong to the Seattle Mariners for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro, the Milwaukee Brewers front office quickly threw water on the idea of a fire sale, though general manager Matt Arnold stopped short of specifically calling anyone untouchable.

That's the right thing to say, but the Brewers have given no indication they are willing to do what it takes to field a contender as they sit on their hands and cry poor while a golden opportunity in the NL Central passes them by.

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff will both reach free agency after the 2024 season, and history tells us there's no chance the Brewers can afford to keep both of those pitchers long term.

There's also something to be said for maximizing a player's value by trading him before he is simply a one-year rental. However, the Brewers are still good enough to contend for a playoff spot, and the right move would be to start the year with all of those core pieces intact.

They can always pivot at the deadline if things aren't going as hoped, and either Burnes or Woodruff could still bring back a major haul as a midseason trade chip controllable for one additional year.

Verdict: Keep Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff

Since the start of the 2021 season, only Aaron Judge (16.6), Juan Soto (12.7), Kyle Tucker (10.9), Mookie Betts (10.6) and Cedric Mullins (9.5) have produced a higher WAR total among outfielders than the 8.9 logged by Pittsburgh Pirates star Bryan Reynolds.

It makes sense then that the Pirates would place a high premium on their best player when other organizations come calling, but the team lost significant leverage when he publicly requested a trade this month.

Recent examples of high-profile players wanting out of town include J.T. Realmuto, who requested a move after the Miami Marlins roster was dismantled around him, and Nolan Arenado, who was unhappy after the Colorado Rockies unexpectedly placed him on the trade block. Both players were traded.

One rival executive told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the Pirates are seeking a "Soto-type package" for Reynolds, while others called him "super expensive" and unlikely to move this offseason.

Another interesting wrinkle to all of this is that the Pirates offered to make Reynolds the highest-paid player in team history, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which would mean exceeding the $70 million extension given to Ke'Bryan Hayes.

If the small-market Pirates were already willing to shell out that kind of money, perhaps they'll be willing to go even higher to appease the closest thing they've had to a face of the franchise since Andrew McCutchen left town in 2018. That possibility is reason enough to say no to trading him, unless things devolve even further.

Verdict: Keep Bryan Reynolds

One of the more surprising nuggets to emerge from the rumor mill this offseason came via Jim Callis of MLB.com a few days ago on Hot Stove.

"With the Braves' payroll climbing, climbing—who knows if they will sign [Sean] Murphy to an extension—I'm hearing some Max Fried rumors on the block," Callis said. "They may not be able to sign him long term. Don't be shocked if we see a Max Fried trade this offseason."

For what it's worth, ESPN MLB insider Buster Olney quickly rebuffed that speculation.

Nor should they entertain the idea.

It's not like the Braves have a stockpile of viable rotation options. If they were to trade Fried this offseason, it would mean relying even more heavily on Mike Soroka in his return from an Achilles injury while slotting Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Kolby Allard into a regular spot in the rotation.

Concerns about the rising payroll in Atlanta are also unfounded. They could trim $48 million next offseason simply by declining club options on Charlie Morton, Eddie Rosario, Travis d'Arnaud, Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. Another $16 million will come off the books the following winter when Marcell Ozuna becomes a free agent, assuming the team declines his 2025 option.

Fried is not going anywhere.

Verdict: Absolutely keep Max Fried

Adding Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to the back of the bullpen and overpaying Japanese standout Masataka Yoshida to take over in left field is not enough to move the needle for the Boston Red Sox in the AL East. If the season started today, I'd pick them to finish last in the division without a second thought.

They lost star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, have done nothing to address catcher and still have a patchwork rotation that is poised to lean entirely too hard on Chris Sale and Nick Pivetta.

Even if they made a last-ditch push and signed Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson in free agency, this team is still facing an uphill battle in a loaded AL East, and there have been no indications Boston is ready to make a splash with either top free agent.

So why not just blow it up?

Third baseman Rafael Devers is entering a contract year, and the last rumblings of extension talks back in October had the two sides still far apart in negotiations, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

It's easy to envision this quickly turning into Bogaerts 2.0 and his leaving for nothing, so if the team is not going to make the necessary moves to contend in 2023, it might as well flip him for a massive haul and get the ball rolling on a rebuild.

Verdict: Trade Rafael Devers

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.