Biggest Potential Busts of the 2021-22 MLB Free-Agency Class

The 2021-22 lockout gets longer with each update and there is no apparent end in sight. But there was plenty of action before the work stoppage, and expect the remaining top free agents to be signed at a breakneck pace once the game is back. 

In this exercise, we take a look at the biggest potential busts of this free-agent class. 

It is important to keep the term "bust" in its proper context. Most of the players listed here are signed to reasonable deals, or are expected to be, and they are largely proven players. 

We're taking into consideration the age, contracts, health and injury history, and the sustainability of their most recent play in comparison to the expectation with the contract. 

So let's get right into it.

Once the dust settles with collective bargaining, Castellanos is expected to command a contract worth more than $100 million as one of the best hitters available in free agency this winter.     

Of course, it could be spring by then. But once this finally happens, this is another player who will have sky-high expectations for whichever team he lands. 

It helps that the universal DH is coming, because it minimizes his exposure as one of the worst fielders at his position. 

Castellanos was the second-worst right fielder in baseball by Outs Above Average last year, according to Statcast. No one is paying that much money for his glove, though. 

The expectation is for Castellanos, who turns 30 in March, to continue slugging the way he has the past several years. In each of the last six seasons, Castellanos has ranked among the top 11 percent of all qualified batters in expected slugging percentage. 

That's what the new team will be expecting.

It was a bounceback year for Semien after a major regression in 2020. Just looking at 2019 and 2021, Semien is the only MLB player to produce at least 6.0 bWAR in multiple seasons during that time span.     

The Texas Rangers are paying $175 million over seven years for an elite competitor, but how sustainable is the 31-year-old's play? How well will this contract age in four to five years when Semien's in his mid-30s. 

It helps that Corey Seager is joining him in Texas, allowing Semien to slide over from shortstop to second base defensively. That gives him a better defensive fit and the expectation is he continues to crush the baseball as he did in 2021 (.265/.334/.538, 45 home runs and 7.1 WAR in 162 games).

But it's still striking to think he landed a one-year deal last offseason and gets $175 million over seven years just one offseason later. 

This is less about Melancon underperforming as it is him being wasted on a team going nowhere anytime soon.    

The Arizona Diamondbacks undoubtedly needed to address their bullpen, which had the lowest WAR of any other team, according to FanGraphs.

But it's reasonable to question why last year's MLB saves leader is worth $14 million over two years to one of baseball's worst teams.

He turns 37 in March, and by the time Arizona is good again, he's probably retired or signing another short-term deal elsewhere.

Melancon went 4-3 with a 2.23 ERA in 64.2 innings for the San Diego Padres last year. He has 244 career saves, which ranks fourth among active pitchers. 

His salary figure makes sense on a contender, but for a rebuilding squad like Arizona's, this could come up empty. 

The larger sample size of Cruz indicates he's aging gracefully, but the way his production trailed off after being traded from the Minnesota Twins to the Tampa Bay Rays has to be cause for concern.    

Cruz hit just .226/.283/.442 over the last 55 games with Tampa. Of his 42.4 career WAR, Cruz has amassed 20.8 since his age-35 season, but how sustainable is that for the 41-year-old slugger? 

It's a major question mark for any team interested in signing him, and there should be many more interested now with the universal designated hitter. 

This past season was Cruz's worst since 2013, as he'd been 150 wRC+ in the two previous seasons.

Kershaw is only included here if he lands a multi-year deal. Despite his Hall of Fame resume, the steep decline was evident this past year as his average fastball velocity dipped and he dealt with forearm issues.     

Kershaw probably re-signs with the Dodgers on a one- or two-year contract, but if any team goes over that, the health risk is clear. He will be 34 in March and had a PRP injection for a flexor issue in his left elbow last October. 

He hasn't started more than 30 games since 2015. Last season was cut short by the elbow and forearm injuries. In his abbreviated 2020 season, when he helped the Dodgers win the World Series, Kershaw dealt with back issues. Those back problems go back to 2018, when he missed nearly a month. 

If Kershaw's body is breaking down, it should not matter that he's one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball history. 

Since Greinke just turned 38 and his strikeout numbers are down significantly, it's reasonable to wonder how much longer he can pitch at a high level. Or, better yet, whether he can pitch at a high level consistently.

Don't be mistaken. Greinke can manipulate a baseball as well as anyone from his generation. His peers marvel at him, both as a baseball player and quirky personality.

But father time is undefeated. No one has pitched more than Greinke, as he's the leader among all active pitchers in career starts, innings pitched and batters faced. 

Greinke's 120 total strikeouts in 2021 were his lowest total in a full season since 2005. 

Signing Greinke to a multiyear deal would make the bust potential higher. 

Since Marte was clearly the best center fielder on the free-agent market this offseason, it made sense for the New York Mets to pay him a four-year, $78 million deal.     

Marte produced a career-best 134 wRC+ and was MLB's most valuable baserunner in 2021, according to FanGraphs. He led the league with 47 stolen bases and was only caught stealing five times. 

At 33 years old, there is the chance Marte's athleticism could wane in the coming years, which would take away some of his effectiveness as a baserunner.

Another question here is whether he benefited from a scarce center field market in free agency, and whether the Mets may have overvalued him after failing to land George Springer the previous offseason. 

The expectation is going to be high for Marte, given the contract, his production from last season and the way the Mets have gone all-in this offseason. So there's inherent pressure to live up to the hype.

The knock on Baez has always been his plate discipline. He chases pitches out of the zone more than most (42.5. percent for his career) and his walk rate is among the lowest for batters with at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2019.    

His career slash line is .264/.307/.477 (104 OPS+), with 149 home runs and 23.4 WAR in 862 games. He is one of the more exciting players to watch, known for some jaw-dropping plays in the field and on the basepaths.

Put simply, Baez is a risky long-term investment considering his boom-or-bust tendencies and the amount of money he commanded. 

Six years, $140 million is a reasonable amount to pay for Baez, who is a significant defensive upgrade for Detroit at shortstop. 

Baez's bust potential depends largely on his plate discipline issues, which should concern Tigers fans in the long term. 

Last year, Rodon's contract for one year, $3 million turned into one of the best bargains of the offseason. After four injury-plagued seasons, Rodon returned for a breakout year with the Chicago White Sox in 2021.    

Rodon led American League pitchers who threw at least 130 innings in strikeouts per nine innings (12.6), strikeout rate (34.6 percent), K-BB% (27.9%), ERA (2.37) and ERA+ (183). 

Rodon is on this list because he's just realizing his potential, and this high level of production has not been seen over a long period of time. 

Rodon has had Tommy John and shoulder surgeries that bring into question whether he's up for a full-season workload. His questionable status before ultimately making a start in the ALDS last year could end up being somewhat of a cautionary tale.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of how sustainable Ray's American League Cy Young season is.     

Before the 2021 season, Ray was decidedly unremarkable, walking batters at a high rate and mostly considered to be a salary dump when he was traded from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Toronto Blue Jays in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. 

The Blue Jays saw enough in Ray to sign him to a one-year, $8 million deal, which would contend with Carlos Rodon (one year, $3 million) for the bargain of the previous offseason.

All of a sudden, Ray became the AL strikeout and ERA leader, which was keyed by a drastically lower walk rate (6.7 percent last year, compared to 11 percent rate for his career entering 2021).

So the question is whether the Seattle Mariners are paying $115 million over five years for what may have largely been an anomaly. 

Stats via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.