Bold Predictions Between Now and the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline

Major League Baseball's August 2 trade deadline is still a long way off. But the past two months of action have set the table enough for us to throw down some bold predictions regarding what type of chaos awaits in two months.

Just so we're clear from the outset: We're aiming for bold but realistic predictions.

I'm not here to make up some outrageous idea like the Angels and Phillies trading Mike Trout for Bryce Harper. However, I will make the argument for the Phillies trading one of their other big contracts, as well as the argument for the Angels frustratingly doing nothing at the deadline.

The following seven predictions are presented in no particular order, outside opening the discussion with a guess at when the first major domino will fall.

June is almost always the calm before the trading storm. Most of the moves that do happen in the month tend to be of the "Team A sends player you've never heard of to Team B for cash and/or a player to be named later" variety. There's nothing bold about expecting things to stay quiet for the next four-plus weeks.

But few semi-significant moves usually happen within the first three weeks of July. Last year, the Brewers traded for Rowdy Tellez on July 6, and the Braves traded for Joc Pederson on July 15. And in 2018, the big Manny Machado trade between the Orioles and Dodgers went down July 18.

This year, however, we'll get all the way to one week before the August 2 deadline before the first of many eyebrow-raising moves transpires.

The reason for that delay is postseason expansion, which will keep more teams clinging to unrealistic World Series dreams for longer than usual.

No one is more than 10 games out of the wild-card picture. And most of the teams that are in the seven- to 10-games-back range don't have a lot to offer as far as impending free agents are concerned.

The Washington Nationals are the exception, with Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz (2023 mutual option) among their long list of players in the final year of their contracts. But between Stephen Strasburg rehabbing for a return and this franchise rallying from a 19-31 start to win the World Series three years ago, I can't imagine they will be in any rush to start selling the team for parts.

Here's the fun part of this prediction: I'm not sure whether the Chicago White Sox will be a buyer or a seller.

If the first big splash comes at the beginning of June, they would absolutely be buying—most likely a second baseman (Adam Frazier? Cesar Hernandez?) or a starting pitcher (Martin Perez? Zack Greinke?). And if I had to put a percentage on it, there's a 90 percent chance that Chicago will be a buyer in two months' time.

However, we're talking about a team that enters June with a .500 record, a negative-45 run differential and a fair amount of work to do to get into playoff position. And with a relatively difficult schedule over the next five weeks—six games against the Blue Jays, three games each against the Dodgers, Angels, Astros, Giants, Rays and Twins and a combined 10 games against the Tigers, Rangers and Orioles from which they darn well better get at least seven wins—things could get ugly in a hurry.

And if the heavy preseason favorites to win the AL Central get to a point of resignation, they do have one extremely intriguing impending free agent to sell: Jose Abreu.

It has been a rough season for Abreu. He's batting .236 and is on a 162-game pace of just 18 home runs and 74 RBI, compared with what was a career 162-game pace of 33 home runs and 115 RBI over the previous eight years. He has received at least one vote for AL MVP in six of the past eight years and won that award in 2020.

Even with his struggles this season, he would instantly become one of the hottest commodities available, if he does, in fact, become available.

Bryce Harper isn't going anywhere. No chance. No how.

But the Philadelphia Phillies also have $264.6 million tied up in Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber from 2022 to 2024. They also owe Schwarber another $20 million in 2025, Realmuto another $23.9 million in 2025 and another $40 million to Castellanos for 2025-26.

The one thing they can't buy, however, is a win. The Phillies have one of the highest payrolls in the majors but a 21-28 record to show for it. And if that doesn't improve soon, they could go on quite the selling spree.

Didi Gregorius, Zach Eflin (mutual option), Corey Knebel, Kyle Gibson, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand could all be unrestricted free agents after this season. Jean Segura ($17 million with a $1 million buyout) and Aaron Nola ($16 million with a $4.25 million buyout) both have team options for 2023. But unless they can package Schwarber or Castellanos while trading one/some of those eight guys, does it really do anything to help them rebuild for next year?

The tricky part for the Phillies is the schedule gets extremely favorable after the All-Star break.

From July 22 through August 31, they'll play seven games against the Reds, seven against the Pirates, five against the Braves, four against the Nationals and three each against the Cubs, Marlins and Diamondbacks. It's a 39-game stretch in which the only contests they play against a team that is currently .500 or better is seven games against the Mets, which is a direct opportunity to gain ground on the NL East leader.

But if someone swoops in and offers to take one of those unfavorable long-term contracts, they'd have to listen.

Fact No. 1: With the exception of Arizona's Daulton Varsho—who has made more starts in center field (22) than he has made at catcher (14) this season—not a single catcher entered Memorial Day with a FanGraphs WAR as high as that of the Chicago Cubs' Willson Contreras (1.3).

Fact No. 2: Contreras will be a free agent this offseason, and the Cubs are already 10 games below .500, rapidly trending toward another summer as a trade-deadline seller.

Fact No. 3: The Astros have been a train wreck at catcher, ranking behind all teams except for the Orioles in FanGraphs WAR at that position. Both the Mets and Yankees figure to be looking for an upgrade as well, as they have each gotten two home runs and roughly a .200 batting average from their backstops.

Fact No. 4: The only other even remotely noteworthy catchers hitting free agency this offseason and playing for teams likely to be sellers are Pittsburgh's Roberto Perez and Detroit's Tucker Barnhart—and calling Barnhart "remotely noteworthy" when he sports a .531 OPS this season is mighty generous.

Add up all those facts, and the bidding war for two-plus months of Contreras' services could be quite the spectacle.

My unnecessarily specific prediction is that he ends up going to the Yankees for shortstop Oswald Peraza. MLB.com ranks Peraza as the No. 54 prospect in baseball, but the Yankees already have the highest-rated shortstop in Anthony Volpe. And the Cubs could certainly use a promising middle infielder.

The Cubs will probably need to give up more than just Contreras to get Peraza, but they do have plenty of impending free agents, including former Yankee David Robertson. There could be some interest in another reunion there.

It is way too early to say with any certainty that the Arizona Diamondbacks will be sellers. Even after recently getting swept in a four-game series against the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks are only 3.5 games back in the NL wild-card picture and have a lot of upcoming games against sub-.500 teams.

But if they eventually settle into the "one of the worst in the National League" role that was expected of them before the season, they might be able to get out from under the rest of that five-year, $85 million contract they signed Madison Bumgarner to before the 2020 season.

Bumgarner was woeful in 2020 (6.48 ERA) and nothing special last year (4.67 ERA), but he has been respectable this season (3.35 ERA)—this in spite of already allowing nine home runs. And while he's nowhere near the durable strikeout machine he was from 2013 to 2016, the 32-year-old lefty (with a career 2.11 ERA in the postseason, by the way) could be of value to a lot of teams.

The problem will be the contract. Bumgarner is owed $18 million this year, $18 million next year, $14 million in 2024 and $5 million in deferred money each year from 2025 to 2027. Arizona will likely need to agree to retain a significant chunk of that $65 million to pique anyone's interest.

Then again, the list of starting pitchers hitting free agency on teams that will most likely be sellers is quite limited this year. Unless Boston drops out of contention, the best names appear to be Zack Greinke, Martin Perez, Jordan Lyles and Michael Pineda—and paying extra for several years of Bumgarner doesn't sound too bad when juxtaposed with those options.

There always seems to be a team or two that didn't get the memo about the trade deadline. Last year, the Rockies failed to move Trevor Story, while the Mariners wouldn't commit to being either buyers or sellers. And in 2019, both the Red Sox and Yankees did virtually nothing to improve despite being in the thick of a postseason race.

Our projection as to who fits that description this season is the Los Angeles Angels.

Long story short: The Halos are in a weird spot.

Their farm system is arguably the worst in the majors, and their payroll is already at nearly $200 million, making it unclear what they would even be able to offer for a player who could help them win it all this season.

But if you didn't have that information, you would unquestionably assume this team would be a buyer.

The Angels enter June with the second-best run differential (plus-42) in the AL but sit four games behind Houston in the AL West. They would be the No. 6 seed if the postseason began today. They last won a postseason game in 2009, so there's some more-than-a-decade-old frustration/desperation at play. Plus, they want to prove to Shohei Ohtani that they're committed to winning a World Series, lest he walk as a free agent after next season.

Maybe they make one semi-significant move to try to improve the bullpen, but I suspect the Angels will be the least active among the contenders and will subsequently get dragged through the mud for it.

At 23-26, the Boston Red Sox haven't had things go according to plan.

Even with the bats catching fire in May, they barely cobbled together a winning record, going 14-13 and book-ending the month with series-losing losses to the Baltimore Orioles.

We'll assume that they'll be in no rush to give up on this season, but things could get worse in a hurry. From June 27 to July 24, they will play a combined 20 games against the Yankees (seven), Rays (seven) and Blue Jays (six).

If they go 14-6 in those 20 games, they'll most likely be a buyer, and one who could desperately use some bullpen help. It's not clear who the best closer available will be—perhaps Atlanta's Kenley Jansen or Philadelphia's Corey Knebel if either of those teams throws in the towel and sells off its impending free agents—but you better believe the Red Sox would target that guy.

Conversely, if they go 6-14 in those 20 games, the Red Sox could have a fire sale that's even bigger than what the Cubs and Nationals had last summer.

J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Vazquez and Jackie Bradley Jr. (mutual option) could all be unrestricted free agents this offseason. James Paxton has a $13 million team option which, if declined, will become a $4 million player option. And where things really could get wild is that Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts have both a player option for next season and a full no-trade clause. If the team falls apart and either of those multiple-time All-Stars wants out, oh my.

Roughly a million different things over the next two months will dictate how this year's trade deadline will play out, but there is no bigger variable than the moment at which Boston commits either to buying or selling.

(And because this is a predictions piece, my prediction is Boston goes the 6-14 route in advance of a great big fire sale.)