NCAA Tournament 2022: February 19 Stock Watch for Men's Bubble Teams

Could you imagine if there actually was a stock market for the men's NCAA tournament bubble?

Yes, you can bet on championship futures, but I'm talking a full-blown stock market in which you can buy or sell shares in a team making the NCAA tournament.

Instead of the S&P 500, we could call it the CBB 358.

And over the past two weeks, the line graphs for Rutgers and Michigan would be looking like the GameStop spike of January 2021, while blue bloods Indiana and North Carolina would look more like Enron in 2000-01.

Those four teams have had the biggest swings in unofficial dancing odds over the course of their past four games, but there has been a ton of movement around the cut line lately.

It's downright comical to look back at tournament projections from early February, not because they were necessarily bad, but because so much has changed since then. (Remember when Oregon and Stanford were both more comfortably in the field than Wyoming?)

Whether these final three-plus weeks before Selection Sunday (March 13) will be as chaotic as the past three weeks remains to be seen, but these are the teams who have most improved or most diminished their tournament odds as of late.

Team resume data and Bracket Matrix projections current through the start of play on Friday, Feb. 18. Teams are listed in no particular order, save for oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down. 

Resume: 16-9, NET: 74, RES: 49.5, QUAL: 64.7, Second Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: W vs. Michigan State, W vs. Ohio State, W at Wisconsin, W vs. Illinois

While I'm sure it has happened once or twice before, I'm having a hard time coming up with a precedent for what Rutgers just accomplished, going from "absolutely no hope for a bid" to "definitely belongs in the field today" in the span of two weeks by winning four consecutive games against ranked opponents.

The reason the Scarlet Knights had no hope in early February is the same reason they could still be in danger of missing the tournament: seven losses to teams not projected to dance. One of those losses (in overtime at Northwestern) is actually a Quadrant 1 result and not a problem. But they've had to put in a whole heck of a lot of work to make up for the consecutive November losses to DePaul, Lafayette and Massachusetts.

Most of that work has come on defense as of late. Rutgers has held each of its last four ranked opponents to 65 points or fewer, stifling three straight Big Ten Player of the Year candidates in E.J. Liddell, Johnny Davis and Kofi Cockburn.

Even now that they have three wins against the top half of Quadrant 1 and a total of eight wins against the top 1.5 Quadrants, though, the metrics still are not a friend of the Scarlet Knights. They've climbed nearly 40 spots on KenPom since where they started the game against Michigan State on Feb. 5, but they're still not in the top 65.

But as long as they win at least two of their remaining five games—at Purdue, at Michigan, vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana, vs. Penn State—they should get into the dance for a second consecutive year. 

Resume: 16-9, NET: 44, RES: 53.5, QUAL: 39.7, No. 10 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: L vs. Illinois, L at Northwestern, L at Michigan State, L vs. Wisconsin

While Rutgers has risen like a phoenix from the ashes, its Big Ten counterpart Indiana has been more of a smoldering dumpster fire.

OK, that's a little harsh, but the Hoosiers sure have been crashing and burning in the second halves of games as of late.

With 13 minutes remaining against Illinois, Indiana led by four. It lost by 17.

Against Michigan State, the Hoosiers briefly took a 41-40 lead four minutes into the second half. They were outscored 36-20 the rest of the way.

At Northwestern*, Indiana led by seven early in the second half but trailed by seven less than seven minutes later and never recovered.

Perhaps worst of all was the late meltdown against Wisconsin, in which Johnny Davis scored 13 of the game's final 16 points, turning a five-point deficit into a five-point Badgers victory.

Hang onto any of those four second-half leads and Indiana would still be in reasonably good shape for a bid. Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves smack dab on the bubble with a 4-9 record against the top two Quadrants.

The good news is they haven't suffered any terrible losses, and there are still plenty of opportunities for quality wins. A road victory over Ohio State (Monday) or Purdue (March 5) would be a huge shot in the arm. But if we assume losses in both of those games and wins in the other three (vs. Maryland, at Minnesota, vs. Rutgers), Indiana would be headed for a photo finish.

*Five Hoosiers were suspended for the game against Northwestern, but I'm considering that a near-full-strength loss, because violating team rules isn't the same as an injury or a positive COVID test. 

Resume: 15-8, NET: 40, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 31.7, No. 11 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: W vs. UCF, W vs. Tulane, W at Houston, W at Cincinnati

Throughout Memphis' disappointing 9-8 start to the season, it was clear that the problem was not a lack of talent, but rather poor chemistry/coaching.

The absence of a true point guard, the willingness to let a 17-year-old freshman (Emoni Bates) play hero ball and just a general lack of discipline in both the turnovers and fouls departments led to things snowballing out of control at times. And then right as it seemed the Tigers were turning a corner, the omicron variant swept through the nation, forcing them to both postpone a handful of games and play others at considerably less than full strength.

But with DeAndre Williams, Landers Nolley II and Jalen Duren on the court and Bates (back injury) off it thus far in February, the Tigers have been a different animal. Not only are they a perfect 4-0 this month, but they have done so in convincing fashion against one of the tougher stretches of the schedule.

In particular, the 10-point road win over Houston was humongous, and one in which they showed a lot of discipline on the defensive end, forcing 19 turnovers while relenting just nine free-throw attempts.

It's going to be very difficult for the selection committee to take every team's injuries and COVID absences/pauses into consideration this year, simply because of the sheer number of asterisks they would need to put on games if they journeyed down that road. But Memphis has been exceptionally unlucky in that regard and should be a team that gets some benefit of the doubt for some of its bad losses—provided it continues to play well at close to full strength.

Two big games remain for the Tigers, at SMU this Sunday and at home against Houston on March 6. If they win the three games in between (Temple, Wichita State and South Florida) and at least don't get blown out by either the Mustangs or the Cougars, they figure to be just barely in the projected field at the start of the AAC tournament.

Iowa State's Resume: 17-9, NET: 43, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 48.3, No. 9 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Oklahoma's Resume: 14-12, NET: 38, RES: 63.0, QUAL: 31.7, No. 12 Seed in Bracket Matrix

TCU's Resume: 16-7, NET: 56, RES: 40.5, QUAL: 56.7, No. 9 Seed in Bracket Matrix

West Virginia's Resume: 14-11, NET: 68, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 54.0, 13th Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Each of these four Big 12 teams has gone 1-3 in its last four games, and two of the wins (West Virginia vs. Iowa State; Iowa State at TCU) were friendly fire. Take those two out of the mix and they're a combined 2-10 since early February.

While it's true that there's no such thing as a bad loss in this year's Big 12, there's certainly such a thing as too many losses, and they're all at, near or beyond that threshold.

West Virginia doesn't even belong in the conversation anymore after losing nine of its last 10 games, and Oklahoma is rapidly approaching that club with losses in nine of its last 11 contests. The Sooners did at least pick up a big win over Texas Tech during that time and had a pair of close calls against Kansas in addition to two other overtime losses. There's a reason they have the best quality metrics and NET ranking among these four teams, despite suffering the most losses.

TCU's record looks the best of the bunch, though that's largely because the Horned Frogs still have five games remaining against Kansas (two), Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas. In losing recent home games to Kansas State and Iowa State, the Horned Frogs have put themselves in a predicament in which they probably must win at least one of those five games, plus sweep West Virginia.

Iowa State is the conundrum.

The Cyclones have eight Quadrant 1 wins, including very nice home victories over Texas and Texas Tech. They also knocked off Xavier, Iowa, Memphis and Creighton in nonconference play. So if you completely ignore conference record like the selection committee claims to do, the Cyclones still look like a No. 7 seed. But they are threatening to finish in dead last in the Big 12 and recently suffered two of their worst losses of the season (at West Virginia, vs. Kansas State), so it feels wrong to have them comfortably in the field.

Iowa State has home games remaining against Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, though, so it should bounce back and at least improve that conference record to a more respectable 7-11. Lose any of those three, though, and the Cyclones might be taking their 13-0 nonconference record to the NIT.

Resume: 14-11, NET: 60, RES: 57.5, QUAL: 61.3, Eighth Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: W at TCU, L vs. Baylor, W at Iowa State, W vs. West Virginia

Can't very well have four Big 12 teams trending in the wrong direction without at least one on the rise, right?

Kansas State has been the biggest—and oftentimes direct—beneficiary of the recent struggles of Iowa State, Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia.

Five weeks ago, the Wildcats were about as close to the field as Rutgers was. They were 8-7 overall with six of those eight wins coming at home against the bottom half of Quadrant 4. The road win over Wichita State was the only remotely good thing on the resume, and even that was nothing special.

But Kansas State has won six of its last 10 games, including huge victories over Texas (road) and Texas Tech (home). In about a month's time, the Wildcats added four Quadrant 1 wins, and three of the four losses during that stretch came against Baylor (two) and Kansas (one)—and they really should have won the home game against Kansas, blowing a 16-point halftime lead in that one.

The metrics still aren't great. However, the worst number on K State's resume is the 11 losses. Even if they go 3-2 the rest of the way, which is a stretch with road games against Kansas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State still to come, the Wildcats would enter the Big 12 tournament at 17-13 overall. And, again, six of those 17 wins were against very poor competition.

Still, they're firmly on the bubble today and would probably move into the projected field if they beat Oklahoma State on Saturday. That hardly seemed possible in mid-January.

Resume: 18-8, NET: 45, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 40.3, First Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: L vs. Duke, W at Clemson, W vs. Florida State, L vs. Pittsburgh

Through its first 25 games of the season, North Carolina was this year's classic "No Great Wins, No Terrible Losses" bubble team.

The Tar Heels did blow out Michigan at home during the ACC-B1G Challenge, and they added some respectable wins in conference play against Clemson and Virginia Tech. But if you somehow haven't heard that this team is 0-7 against Quadrant 1, it's possible you've been living under a rock. People have been throwing that stat around on an hourly basis since the Feb. 5 loss to Duke.

However, up until game No. 26, the Tar Heels were also a perfect 18-0 against the bottom three Quadrants, blowing out the vast majority of subpar competition they faced. Even though several of their losses were by ugly margins, that consistent success against lower-tier teams was keeping the Tar Heels not only in the hunt for a bid, but in good shape for a No. 10 or No. 11 seed.

Then they lost a home game to Pittsburgh on Wednesday night, and now they are in serious bubble peril.

Before the NET refreshed on Thursday morning, that was a Quadrant 4 loss. Pittsburgh subsequently climbed just high enough (159th in the NET) to bump that up to a Quadrant 3 result for the Heels, but the moral of the story is it was a big no-no.

In my estimation, that loss was enough to knock the Tar Heels out of the projected field. At best, it bumped them down into "play-in game" territory. And they likely need to go at least 4-1 the rest of the way (and at least show up to some degree in the ACC tournament) to salvage a bid. That means either winning at Virginia Tech on Saturday or winning at Duke at the end of the regular season—and also winning the games in between against Louisville, NC State and Syracuse if they split the two road tests.

Murray State's Resume: 25-2, NET: 23, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 38.7, No. 8 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Belmont's Resume: 23-5, NET: 48, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 59.3, Sixth Team Out in Bracket Matrix

With the exception of games played against each other, opportunities for quality wins simply do not exist for Murray State and Belmont in the OVC. Games against the third-best team in the conference (Morehead State) are Quadrant 2 on the road and Quadrant 3 at home. Everything else is Quadrant 4.

But by not losing any of those games while countless bubble teams burn to the ground around them, the dream of a two-bid OVC—for what would be just the third time in the history of a league that dates back to the 1940s—is alive and well.

Since the beginning of December, the Racers and Bruins have a combined record of 37-3. One of those losses came in Murray State's win at Belmont. Another was Murray State putting up a respectable fight on the road against Auburn. And the third was Belmont losing at Morehead State, which, again, is a somewhat acceptable Quadrant 2 outcome.

Murray State, in particular, is in fantastic shape for a bid. The road win over Memphis just keeps looking better by the day, and even the bad loss (neutral vs. ETSU) is an obvious outlier in which they shot 1-of-16 from three-point range. Even if the Racers lost to Belmont this coming Thursday and lose to the Bruins again in the OVC title game, I like their chances of getting in—provided they don't lose either of the remaining games against Tennessee-Martin or Southeast Missouri State.

Belmont probably needs at least one win against Murray State to feel safe. (Obviously, it would be 100 percent safe if it gets that win for the auto bid in the OVC championship.) The Bruins are presently 4-5 against the top two Quadrants, and none of the wins—at Saint Louis, at Drake, vs. Chattanooga, neutral vs. Iona—were fantastic. So with metrics hanging around 50 across the board, finishing at 27-7 might not cut it.

They would at least have an at-large pulse, though, and would spend Tuesday-Sunday of Championship Week rooting like mad against any and all bid thieves.

While we're on the subject, here's a fun hypothetical: Belmont wins at Murray State on Thursday, but both Belmont and Murray State lose to Morehead State in the OVC tournament. That just might be the formula for a three-bid OVC.

Resume: 17-9, NET: 71, RES: 61.5, QUAL: 64.7, Third Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: W vs. Stanford, L vs. California, W vs. Washington State, L at Arizona State

The good news for the Ducks is that opportunity is at their doorstep. They'll play at Arizona Saturday night and then host both UCLA and USC next Thursday and Saturday. No time like the present to make a move in the right direction.

The problem is that after bad blowout losses to Cal and Arizona State, Oregon's doorstep reminds me of those episodes of Scrubs when JD bought a half-acre of land that only had a doorstep to no house.

The 14-point loss to the Golden Bears knocked the Ducks out of the projected field, and the subsequent 24-point loss to the Sun Devils effectively kicked them to the curb.

They're still hanging around as a "work to do" type of team, because those mid-January road wins over UCLA and USC look very impressive. If you're going to have a resume with just two Quadrant 1 wins, getting both of them on the road against NET Top 25 teams is the way to go.

But at this point, Oregon has three losses against Quadrant 2 and three losses against Quadrant 3, and having two really good wins is nowhere near enough to make up for that.

Heading into the game against Cal, it felt like Oregon would get in if it went 5-3 the rest of the way. The easiest path to that goal was to beat Cal, Washington State, Arizona State, Washington and Washington State again.

But now?

It's looking like the Ducks will need to win at least two of these next three games to have a real shot.

If they go 1-2 with the win coming on the road against Arizona, maybe that would still be enough, because that would be gigantic. Given how broken they looked against the Sun Devils, though, a road win over the Wildcats sure feels like a pipe dream.

Resume: 14-10, NET: 31, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 25.3, No. 11 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Four Most Recent Games: W at Penn State, W vs. Purdue, L vs. Ohio State, W at Iowa

The predictive metrics refused to give up on Michigan. Even when the Wolverines were sitting at 11-9 with little more than one road win over Indiana and one home win over San Diego State to their credit, they never dropped out of the KenPom top 50.

Granted, they did open the season at No. 2 on KenPom, so it was going to take a lot for them to fall that far. But it kept them on the radar in spite of the bad losses (by bad margins) to Minnesota and UCF.

Now that they've added two very good wins over Purdue and Iowa, this could be the most dangerous double-digit seed in NCAA tournament history.

As with Kansas State, though, the volume of losses is still more than a little concerning.

Ten losses certainly isn't a deal-breaker. Vanderbilt got in as a No. 9 seed with 15 losses in 2017. But 10 losses with five Quadrant 1 games and a home game against Rutgers still on the schedule is a precarious spot to be in.

Even if they win two of those games, the Wolverines would enter the Big Ten tournament at 16-14 overall with (based on current NET rankings) eight wins against the top two Quadrants. They would likely be the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in that tournament, which would mean a second-round game against a team like Indiana or Penn State to set up a quarterfinal against a team like Purdue or Illinois. They would probably need to win both of those games.

But if they can manage a 3-3 split the rest of the way, that would almost certainly do the trick.

As things stand, though, Michigan absolutely belongs in the projected field.

Creighton Bluejays (UP): It was a "just don't screw it up" 10-day stretch for Creighton, and it succeeded. The Bluejays survived a scare at home against Butler before winning three straight against Georgetown (two) and DePaul, each by double digits. None of those wins individually moved the needle, but the overall impact moved them a couple of spots further into the projected field. They need to finish strong against a tough remaining schedule, though.

Florida Gators (DOWN): After a four-game winning streak that gave them at-large life again, the Gators got trounced by Kentucky and suffered a not-good road loss to Texas A&M. They could still redeem themselves by winning one of the remaining home games against Auburn or Kentucky. For now, though, they have one Q1 win (Ohio State on a neutral floor) and one Q4 loss (vs. Texas Southern). They would be out if the tournament started today.

San Diego State Aztecs (UP): Relatively close wins over Nevada, San Jose State and Air Force didn't do much to help the Aztecs. It was better than losing any of those games, of course, but they actually slipped a bit in the predictive metrics during that stretch. But the 19-point win over Utah State on Tuesday was big. Just like Creighton, that four-game winning streak pushes them up a bit in advance of a brutal remaining schedule. They'll need to win at least one of the upcoming road games against Fresno State, Boise State and Wyoming.

SMU Mustangs (DOWN): Hard to believe the team that recently ended Houston's 12-game winning streak could be moving in the wrong direction, but SMU sandwiched that big victory in between losses to Wichita State and Temple. If the Mustangs don't win the home game against red-hot Memphis on Sunday, they pretty much have to beat Houston for a second time on Feb. 27.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (UP): Did you know Notre Dame has won 15 of its last 17 games and is tied for first place in the ACC? That impressive run includes recent road wins over Miami, Clemson and NC State. The Irish darn near gave away all the goodwill they earned in an overtime game at home against Boston College, but they survived, and so did their case for a bid. Gigantic bubble game at Wake Forest coming up on Saturday afternoon.

Saint Louis Billikens (DOWN): The bandwagon to a multi-bid A-10 acquired a flat tire when Saint Louis lost back-to-back games to St. Bonaventure in the past 10 days. The Billikens still have bubble-y metrics and a nice win at Boise State in November, but if they don't win at Davidson on Saturday afternoon, they're toast.