Fantasy Football 2022: Dynasty Players to Trade for Before They Break Out

Finding success in dynasty fantasy football requires patience, timing and a little bit of luck.

The excitement that comes with snagging a promising prospect in rookie drafts can be difficult to hang onto when that player underperforms coming out of the gate.

But smart managers know progression in the NFL isn't always linear. In fact, sometimes it is exponential as players find their footing in the league and can improve suddenly without much warning.

The key in dynasty formats is identifying who those sudden-risers are going to be before it happens and getting them while their value is low.

These first-, second- and third-year players might not have fully blossomed yet, but they should be on your trade radar—their breakouts are coming.

ADP information via Fantasy Football Calculator.

There's a good chance the Rashod Bateman manager in your league is frustrated with the Ravens wideout.

Bateman was drafted as WR18 in startup dynasty drafts this summer, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Thus far, his usage hasn't lived up to that kind of hype. He only saw five targets in the first game of the season before rebounding with a 7/108/1 stat line in Week 2.

But he was a non-factor in Week 3, catching two of his four targets for 59 yards and losing a fumble. Through three weeks, Bateman is WR30.

Meanwhile, Devin Duvernay has looked like an absolute steal. He's WR21 in PPR formats heading into Week 4.

Those rostering Bateman in your leagues right now might believe Duvernay is going to continue to outscore his teammate. That's highly unlikely, though. Duvernay has only seen eight targets all season. He's happened to catch all eight and scored three touchdowns.

That's unsustainable efficiency.

Bateman, on the other hand, is sixth in the league in yards per route run, sixth in fantasy points per target and 14th in deep targets, per Player Profiler.

Now is the time to get Bateman before Lamar Jackson throws him a few touchdowns and his value goes back through the roof.

There are probably some Treylon Burks drafters that are worried about their investment after he saw just two targets in Week 3. The Arkansas product has been a disappointment in general, with just eight catches for 115 yards and no touchdowns through three games.

But this is a case where fantasy players need to remain patient.

It isn't as though Burks is stuck behind a dominant receiver in the Titans offense. Robert Woods is the only one with more targets (16 to 13), and he has just nine catches for 137 yards.

Turron Davenport of ESPN had this to say regarding whether fantasy managers should panic on Burks:

"Offensive coordinator Todd Downing wants to get him more opportunities with the ball in his hands to take advantage of his yards after the catch ability. Downing said Burks has been growing every week and generating confidence with the coaching staff because of how he's taken advantage of the opportunities that have come his way."

Ryan Tannehill is not holding Burks back. He's ranked fourth in target quality ranking, per Player Profiler. He just needs more looks to come his way.

With Woods not really taking over as the No. 1 receiver and the coaching staff gaining confidence in Burks, the time to buy the rookie is now after his slow start.

For those who may have spent a first-round rookie draft pick on J.K. Dobbins in 2020, it's been a bumpy ride.

As a rookie, Dobbins flashed the potential to be a top fantasy back. He averaged six yards per carry, scored nine rushing touchdowns and caught 18 of 24 targets in the passing game.

It wasn't hard to imagine him being a top-12 running back in his second season. Unfortunately, a knee injury in the final preseason game last year forced him to miss all of 2021.

His rehab for that injury continued into this season, until he made his debut in Week 3. For Dobbins managers, it was another reminder that coming back from an injury isn't like flipping a switch.

Dobbins saw just seven carries for 23 yards and made two receptions for 17 yards. His smaller workload is not an indication of his talent, but rather a sign of where he is in his recovery.

The former Ohio State back is still just 23 years old and in a productive offense that needs someone to take some pressure off Lamar Jackson in the run game.

A healthy Dobbins is obviously the answer, and he could be the perfect fit for a lot of dynasty teams with a long-term outlook.

Breece Hall's value is likely as low as it's ever going to be right now. The Jets running back was the most popular No. 1 pick in rookie drafts this offseason.

However, there might some impatient players who aren't happy with their choice at this point.

Hall is just RB17 in PPR leagues and has struggled to separate himself from Michael Carter. The second-year back is actually leading the team in carries with 28.

The share of the carries isn't necessarily what's important here. It's the fact that Hall has yet to see 10 carries, and he's still managing to put up RB2 numbers because of the work he can do in the passing game.

Hall is the most-targeted running back in the league with 22. He's turned that into 101 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Carter might be outpacing Hall in carries right now, but he also has a year of experience as an advantage. As the coaching staff gets more comfortable with what Hall can do, the second-round pick should overtake Carter.

That's going to lead to some big games, and Hall will be a nearly unattainable asset.

The Arizona Cardinals are third in the league in passing play percentage. With a defense that is last in the league in yards allowed per play and gives up 29.0 points per game, that's not likely to change.

What is going to change is the weaponry that's available to quarterback Kyler Murray.

So far, he's had to lean heavily on new addition Marquise Brown, 31-year-old Zach Ertz and former undrafted free agent Greg Dortch. The 24-year-old Dortch has been the most interesting of the three. He has seen 23 targets, including 10 in Week 3, and caught nine for 80 yards.

Rondale Moore has missed the first three games because of a hamstring injury, but it sounds like he's getting close to making his 2022 debut after returning to practice this week.

"It's great. I'm excited to be back, healthy and ready to compete," Moore told Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic.

Moore took a backseat to Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and Ertz last season, but Kirk is gone, Green is injured and Ertz is another year older. With the Cardinals throwing the ball to stay in games, the Purdue product could be in line for a much bigger role in his second season.

The Indianapolis Colts offense is in dire need of a second receiver to pair with Michael Pittman Jr. to bolster the passing game. In Week 3, we got our first sign that rookie Alec Pierce can be that guy.

Pierce got off to a slow start. He was held without a catch in his NFL debut despite playing 51 percent of the offensive snaps. Then he missed Week 2 with a concussion.

With the Colts looking to earn their first win of the season in Week 3, Pierce was more involved in the game plan. He snagged three of his five targets for 61 yards, including one on a fade when Indy was backed up on its one-yard line, showing the kind of confidence quarterback Matt Ryan already has in the rookie receiver..

Pierce fits the mold for what Indianapolis has looked for in its pass-catchers. He's a big-bodied receiver (6'3", 211 pounds) with elite athleticism (9.82 relative athletic score). The only thing missing is a steady volume of looks his way.

The Colts are perceived as a run-heavy team because of Johnathan Taylor, but in reality, Ryan is ninth in passing attempts this season. When Pierce becomes the consistent second option behind Pittman, he's going to see enough targets to produce on a weekly basis.