2022 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: February 1 Projection of the Field of 68

Welcome to February, otherwise known as March Eve. Only four short weeks stand between us college basketball fans and the greatest month on the calendar. And with Selection Sunday for the men's NCAA tournament rapidly approaching, the projected No. 1 seeds for the dance are Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor and Kansas.

It's a tough call for that final spot on the top line, though, and buckle up for potential upheaval this week. After a big UCLA-Arizona game Thursday night, Saturday will feature Baylor-Kansas, Duke-North Carolina, Kentucky-Alabama and at least half a dozen other clashes between projected tournament teams.

But if the season ended today, here's our best guess at what the brackets would look like.

For each of the four regions, we'll discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—perhaps isn't as good as we once thought.

Before that, we'll start with the bubble, like we always do. And after the region-by-region breakdown, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of overall seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.

One quick "glossary" note before we dive in: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which the Quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's Resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the Quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).

NET rankings update daily and can be found here. The others can be found individually at their various sources or masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik.

Last Team In: Wyoming Cowboys (17-3, NET: 35, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 79.3)

Four-bid Mountain West? Four-bid Mountain West! All four are in the Nos. 9-12 seed range, so it wouldn't take much wind for that house of cards to blow over. After an overtime win over Colorado State on Monday night, though, the Cowboys slide into our latest projection. And if they do end up making the tournament, watch out. The trio of Hunter Maldonado, Drake Jeffries and Graham Ike could make the Sweet 16.

Second-to-Last In: Stanford Cardinal (12-7, NET: 89, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 91.7)

At the start of the day Sunday, there were only eight teams in the country with more Quadrant 1 wins than Stanford, which polished off a season sweep of USC with a Thursday night road win. The Cardinal's predictive metrics are unsightly, in large part because their losses to Baylor, Arizona and UCLA were by a combined margin of 89 points. But with five wins over projected tournament teams and no downright terrible losses, they slide into the field for now.

Third-to-Last In: North Carolina Tar Heels (15-6, NET: 37, RES: 39.0, QUAL: 30.7)

North Carolina's scoring margin at home is plus-16.1 PPG. Away from home, it's minus-6.2 PPG. But the Tar Heels played a pair of home games this past week to sneak back into the at-large mix, this despite an 0-6 record against Quadrant 1. They have five road games left, plus the massive home game against Duke this coming Saturday. They better win at least three of those games (and all of the other home games) if they want to dance.

Fourth-to-Last In: San Francisco Dons (17-5, NET: 40, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 45.3)

After blowing a 23-point first-half lead in the home loss to Saint Mary's this week, San Francisco has fallen into the danger zone. Early wins over Davidson, UAB and Fresno State still look good, but the Dons cannot afford to tiptoe through WCC play without picking up any wins over BYU, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's. They are 0-1 against each of those squads, with a massive road game against BYU coming up Thursday.

Fifth-to-Last In: Oregon Ducks (13-7, NET: 58, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 43.7)

The home loss to Colorado was a Quadrant 3 misstep, but the Ducks are still in decent shape from the mid-January road sweep of UCLA and USC. They just about need to win these next five against Colorado, Utah, Stanford, California and Arizona State, though, or else they'll have some work to do during the subsequent three-game gauntlet against Arizona, UCLA and USC.

First Team Out: Creighton Bluejays (12-7, NET: 73, RES: 64.5, QUAL: 74.3)

Whatever halftime speech Greg McDermott is giving his guys, it isn't working. Within the first 10 minutes of the second half against Butler, the Bulldogs went on an 18-2 run. But that was nothing compared to the 29-2 run that Xavier put on Creighton after the intermission, turning a 17-point deficit into a 10-point lead in the blink of an eye. Those meltdowns decimated an already questionable resume, knocking the Bluejays out of the projected field.

Second Team Out: VCU Rams (13-6, NET: 56, RES: 40.5, QUAL: 57.3)

Both games came right down to the wire, but VCU picked up two of its best wins of the season in the past week at Davidson and at Richmond. The Rams still don't have anything close to a great win, but they do have five wins against the top two quadrants and have not suffered any horrendous losses. (Games against Wagner and St. Bonaventure weren't close, but those weren't resume killers.)

Third Team Out: Belmont Bruins (17-5, NET: 44, RES: 56.0, QUAL: 52.3)

While teams like Florida, Florida State and Texas A&M have at least temporarily played their way out of the conversation, Belmont has creeped back up the radar after three wins by a combined 71 points in the past week. The Bruins still feel like a long shot, though, because of the sheer number of Quadrant 4 games left on their schedule. That said, we have to get to 68 teams somehow, and these metrics aren't too shabby.

Fourth Team Out: Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-7, NET: 50, RES: 58.0, QUAL: 37.3)

The Bulldogs almost got what would have been a massive road win over Kentucky, but they ran out of gas in overtime. And then they got destroyed by Texas Tech in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. While road losses against teams ranked top-15 in the NET aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination, those were huge missed opportunities for what was the Last Team In one week ago. They still have road games against Arkansas, LSU and Alabama in the next 16 days to either make or break their at-large dreams.

Fifth Team Out: Michigan Wolverines (10-8, NET: 47, RES: 66.5, QUAL: 30.7)

If Michigan had won at Michigan State on Saturday, it was probably going to be time to put the Wolverines back in the projected field. But after that 16-point loss to the Spartans—their sixth double-digit loss of the season—the Wolverines are now 1-4 vs. Quadrant 1 and 2-7 against the top two quadrants. The Quality metrics refuse to give up on this team, but Michigan needs a few more quality wins to have any realistic hope for a bid.

Milwaukee

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 South Alabama
No. 8 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 9 Colorado State

Buffalo, New York

No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 Toledo
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 12 North Carolina / Stanford

Fort Worth, Texas

No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Oregon

Milwaukee

No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Princeton
No. 7 Connecticut vs. No. 10 Boise State

On the Rise: Boise State Broncos (Up Two Seed Lines)
17-4, NET: 32, RES: 30.0, QUAL: 41.0

Boise State has now reeled off 14 consecutive wins, but it has been a slow climb up the projected seed list for the Broncos, who have yet to beat a surefire NCAA tournament team and who constantly win games by the skin of their teeth.

That said, three of those last four nail-biters were Quadrant 1 victories at Utah State, at San Diego State and at Fresno State, and the other was a top-of-Quadrant 2 home win over Wyoming. Individually, those four wins (each by five points or fewer) didn't do a ton. However, the collective impact has been huge, pushing the Broncos above the bubble with some room to spare.

If they win at Wyoming on Thursday, it would take one heck of a collapse the rest of the way for them to fall out of the field.

Fading Fast: LSU Tigers (Down Two Seed Lines)
16-5, NET: 14, RES: 11.0, QUAL: 13.7

The Tigers got veteran point guard Xavier Pinson (MCL sprain) back in a limited capacity for Saturday's game against TCU, but they still suffered their fourth loss in the span of five games.

It's sort of an inverse Boise State situation in which none of the four losses was all that bad, but four losses in the span of 15 days eventually takes its toll on your seed.

The metrics are still great, though, and LSU should rally in the next few weeks. Getting Pinson back up to full speed against a six-game stretch of Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia and South Carolina sure sounds like six wins. By the time they play the rematch with Kentucky on Feb. 23, the Bayou Bengals might be back in the mix for a No. 3 seed.    

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Texas Southern / Nicholls State
No. 8 Davidson vs. No. 9 Oklahoma

Portland, Oregon

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Xavier vs. No. 12 Chattanooga

Pittsburgh

No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 14 Wagner
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 San Diego State

Indianapolis

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Liberty
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Iowa

On the Rise: Saint Mary's Gaels (Up Two Seed Lines)
17-4, NET: 24, RES: 29.5, QUAL: 26.0

Thursday's Saint Mary's at San Francisco clash might have been the most important bubble game of the season.

When the Gaels were down by 23 points in the first half, it sure looked like they were on the fast track for "play-in game" territory. Had they actually gotten blown out, not only would it have dropped them to 1-5 in Quadrant 1 games (with a road win over 12-9 Utah State as the lone victory), but it would have knocked them down a good bit in the Quality metrics.

Instead, they stormed all the way back for a 72-70 victory—bookended by wins over Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine by 32 and 24, respectively—to move into "just don't blow it" territory. Even if they lose their four remaining games against Gonzaga (two), BYU and San Francisco, they should enter the WCC tournament in good shape for the NCAA tournament so long as they handle their business against San Diego (two), Portland and Loyola Marymount.

Fading Fast: San Diego State (Down One Seed Line)
11-5, NET: 51, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 40.3

While SDSU's December neutral-site victory over Saint Mary's gained some value, they laid a great big egg in an 18-point loss at short-handed Utah State this past Wednesday.

That's a Quadrant 1 game, so it wasn't a backbreaker so much as it was a missed opportunity. San Diego State is now 2-5 vs. NET top 50, but also 2-5 vs. NET top 110, as its third-best win of the season came against UNLV.

The Friday game at Colorado State—whom SDSU defeated by 30 in San Diego on Jan. 8—could be a "loser drops out of the field" sort of affair.

Fort Worth, Texas

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Longwood / Colgate
No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Loyola-Chicago

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 San Francisco / Wyoming

San Diego

No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 14 New Mexico State
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Wake Forest

Indianapolis

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 UC Irvine
No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 BYU

On the Rise: Kentucky Wildcats (Up One Seed Line)
17-4, NET: 7, RES: 13.5, QUAL: 4.7

Three weeks ago, I had Kentucky projected for a No. 6 seed. (Facing No. 11 seed Marquette in the first round, no less. Those two teams sure have improved their national standing in the past 21 days.) At the time, the Wildcats were 12-3 with only one noteworthy win over North Carolina and a questionable loss to Notre Dame.

Since then, they have destroyed Tennessee and Kansas and put up one heck of a fight at Auburn in a game they might have won if TyTy Washington Jr. hadn't suffered an ankle injury late in the first half. (Kentucky was up by nine at the time and ultimately lost by nine.) Meanwhile, Notre Dame has crept back into the at-large conversation, making the one bad loss look not so bad.

I'd like to see one more quality win before we start seriously considering the Wildcats for a No. 1 seed, and the road game against Alabama this Saturday could do the trick. The Crimson Tide have been giant killers, though, already knocking off Gonzaga, Baylor, Houston, LSU and Tennessee and nearly beating Auburn. Should be another fun one for Oscar Tshiebwe and Co.

Fading Fast: BYU Cougars (Down Three Seed Lines)
17-6, NET: 33, RES: 41.0, QUAL: 40.7

Prior to Saturday night, Pacific was 1-13 against the KenPom.com top 340, with that lone win coming at home in overtime against UC Santa Barbara. Yet, the Tigers pulled off a stunning 76-73 upset of BYU.

That Quadrant 4 disaster came just two days after the Cougars lost at Santa Clara on a last-second floater by Jalen Williams.

The Cougars also previously suffered losses to Utah Valley, Creighton and Vanderbilt, so they now have quite the stockpile of not-great losses. But they also have 10 wins against the NET top 150, including that 81-49 road win over Oregon back in November that seems to keep paying dividends. Nevertheless, BYU has gone from comfortably in the field to likely needing to win one of the upcoming home games against San Francisco (Thursday) or Gonzaga (Saturday) to make the dance.

Portland, Oregon

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Seton Hall

Buffalo, New York

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 UAB
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Iona

Pittsburgh

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Towson
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 West Virginia

San Diego

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Weber State
No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 10 Arkansas

On the Rise: Arkansas Razorbacks (Up Two Seed Lines)
16-5, NET: 46, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 32.7

It has been a tale of three seasons for Arkansas. The Razorbacks went 9-0 in the first month, 1-5 for the next month and 6-0 since snapping out of that funk.

There's still not a whole lot of good on the resume outside of the Jan. 15 road win over LSU, but recent victories over Texas A&M, Ole Miss and West Virginia were all Quadrant 2 results. That was enough to beef up the metrics a bit across the board.

The Hogs should beat Georgia and Mississippi State in the coming week to push that record to 8-0 in the season's third month, but how will the fourth and final one shake out? Arkansas still has home games against Auburn, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee, as well as road games against Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Missouri. Things could unravel again in a hurry.

Fading Fast: West Virginia Mountaineers (Down Four Seed Lines)
13-8, NET: 64, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 54.3

Life in the Big 12 has been relentless on West Virginia, which did not do enough in nonconference play to be able to make much of an at-large case if it ends up with a 7-11 conference record.

The 'Eers are 2-6 in Big 12 play, they're on a six-game losing streak and seven of their eight losses have come by at least a nine-point margin. Those two wins were the home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State—otherwise known as the least difficult (but still quite difficult) games on their league schedule.

The only thing keeping West Virginia in the field at this point was that come-from-behind, three-point home win over UConn when the Huskies were without both Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. If the committee puts any sort of discount on that result, the Mountaineers are in major trouble.

No. 4: Kansas Jayhawks (17-3, NET: 9, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 9.7)

Despite getting smashed at home by Kentucky on Saturday night, Kansas' resume still looks a little better than those of Purdue, Arizona, Kentucky and Wisconsin. But it is a much tougher call for the final No. 1 seed right now than it had been for most of the season.

The Jayhawks are 5-2 vs. Quadrant 1 and 10-3 against the top two quadrants. Wisconsin has similar quadrant-based records (7-3; 10-3), but the predictive metrics are weighing the Badgers down (21st in NET; 25.0 QUAL average). Arizona doesn't have anywhere near as many quality wins.

And while Kansas does have that disappointing loss to Dayton, Purdue (Rutgers) and Kentucky (Notre Dame) also each had a loss to a non-tournament team, and they each have at least three fewer wins against the top two Quadrants than Kansas.

Again, it's a razor-thin margin right now. But Kansas has quite the opportunity to defend its seed this week, playing at Iowa State, vs. Baylor and at Texas before our next update.

No. 3: Baylor Bears (19-3, NET: 4, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 3.3)

Baylor lost at Alabama just before Kansas lost to Kentucky, but there's not much of an argument to be made for dropping the Bears a seed line. They have Wisconsin's quadrant-based records, but they have done so with excellent Quality metrics, too. Plus, they were a little banged up for all three of their losses, forced to play Saturday's game without LJ Cryer.

Win at Kansas on Saturday and Baylor will be right back in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed. Can't imagine the Bears would bypass Auburn unless the Tigers lose to Alabama or Georgia, but it would maybe be enough for them to leapfrog Gonzaga.

No. 2: Gonzaga Bulldogs (17-2, NET: 1, RES: 13.5, QUAL: 1.0)

Ho-hum. Gonzaga had a 34-point victory over Loyola Marymount and a 32-point victory over Portland in the past week. Since the Dec. 4 loss to Alabama, the Zags have now won 10 consecutive games by at least a 14-point margin. If that trend continues this Saturday at BYU, that might be enough to knock the Cougars out of the projected field.

No. 1: Auburn Tigers (20-1, NET: 6, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 8.0)

Auburn's first-ever game as the AP No. 1 team was almost a disaster. The Tigers went to Missouri and had to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in a 55-54 rock fight. But they looked more like their usual selves in an 18-point victory over Oklahoma in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. They should take care of business this week against Alabama and Georgia, although the Crimson Tide sure have been a menace for top teams this season.

In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. First five out teams are included in italics.

ACC (4): 13. Duke; 29. Miami; 42. Wake Forest; 46. North Carolina

Big 12 (8): 3. Baylor; 4. Kansas; 14. Texas Tech; 22. Iowa State; 24. Texas; 32. TCU; 36. Oklahoma; 41. West Virginia

Big East (6): 10. Villanova; 15. Providence; 18. Marquette; 20. Xavier; 25. UConn; 33. Seton Hall; 69. Creighton

Big Ten (7): 6. Purdue; 8. Wisconsin; 11. Michigan State; 17. Illinois; 23. Ohio State; 28. Indiana; 40. Iowa; 73. Michigan

Mountain West (4): 34. Colorado State; 37. Boise State; 43. San Diego State; 48. Wyoming

Pac-12 (5): 5. Arizona; 12. UCLA; 26. USC; 44. Oregon; 47. Stanford

SEC (6): 1. Auburn; 7. Kentucky; 16. Alabama; 19. LSU; 21. Tennessee; 39. Arkansas; 72. Mississippi State

West Coast (4): 2. Gonzaga; 27. Saint Mary's; 38. BYU; 45. San Francisco

Other (24): 9. Houston; 30. Davidson; 31. Murray State; 35. Loyola-Chicago; 49. Iona; 50. Chattanooga; 51. UAB; 52. Toledo; 53. South Dakota State; 54. Vermont; 55. New Mexico State; 56. Wagner; 57. Towson; 58. Oakland; 59. Weber State; 60. Liberty; 61. Princeton; 62. South Alabama; 63. UC Irvine; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Longwood; 66. Colgate; 67. Texas Southern; 68. Nicholls State; 70. VCU; 71. Belmont

Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference, KenPom and BartTorvik.com and are current through the start of play on Monday, Jan. 31, unless otherwise noted. Records are current through the start of play on Tuesday, Feb. 1.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.