The Top 10 Landing Spots for Dodgers' Trea Turner in MLB Free Agency

Just like a year ago, there is plenty of attention this MLB offseason on a talented crop of free-agent shortstops.

Only this class might be even better than the last one. It includes Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa (again) and Trea Turner, one of the fastest players and best contact hitters in baseball.

You will read this part a ton throughout the piece. Turner wants to return to the East Coast, where he won a World Series with the Washington Nationals. But there will be teams across the country vying for his services, and we all know money talks.

With that in mind, here are the top free-agent landing spots for Trea Turner.

Turner addresses obvious needs the Marlins have at shortstop and offensively. The Marlins' shortstop position was bottom seven in wRC+ last year. As a team, they had the fourth-lowest OPS.

This seems like the least likely place Turner ends up, given Miami's unwillingness to spend big bucks on top free agents.

Turner is widely considered the best among a crew of superstar free-agent shortstops in back-to-back offseasons. In other words, over two offseasons when teams could sign players Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner makes a case for the best one.

Among shortstops, his 14.0 rWAR since 2020 ranks first.

Now, it's just a question of how serious the Marlins are about becoming a serious franchise. Pursuing the South Florida native would be a nice step.

Unlike the Marlins, the Orioles actually have some talent already at shortstop. It just pales in comparison to what they could have in Turner.

The Orioles made a remarkable turnaround last season, going from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022. That's the kind of improvement that makes an impression on free agents. There's no way the Orioles would have been in this conversation a year ago.

But as it stands, Baltimore could be a real threat in the AL East next season, either as a division winner or wild card, especially with Turner.

Their 2022 success was largely achieved without household names—unless you count young players like rookie Adley Rutschman, who is certainly on his way to stardom.

Adding Turner would signal a true change in organizational trajectory for the Orioles.

What's better than having one really good shortstop? Having one who is great enough to bump the good one over to second base.

That's exactly what could happen if the Cardinals and Turner saw themselves as a good fit. Tommy Edman took a major leap last season, finishing with a career-high 6.3 rWAR.

Edman split time between shortstop and second base with a few brief stints at third and in the outfield this past season.

But he spent most of his time in 2021 at second base, where he was the MLB leader in outs above average (13) and runs prevented (10).

This would have a chance to be the best middle infield combination in baseball if it happened.

It's well understood the Red Sox would like to bring back Xander Bogaerts, who in turn would like to continue his career in Boston. The only thing that appears to be stopping them is agreeing on the right price for them to continue what's been an outstanding partnership for about a decade.

One of the biggest offseason questions for the Red Sox is who will be their shortstop in the future and how much will he cost? Bogaerts would clearly cost more than $20 million annually, given that he opted out of his deal with hopes of signing for more money.

What if the Red Sox decide that paying Bogaerts his own perceived market value would instead warrant flat out upgrading at the position? In other words, if you're going to pay $25-30 million a year for Bogaerts, why not just pay $35 million and call it a day?

With reports of Turner preferring the east coast, it seems to give the Red Sox a leg up.

This is technically the south, but in the eastern time zone. Is that good enough to fulfill Turner's desire to head back east?

As The Athletic's Jim Bowden pointed out, Atlanta makes geographical sense for Turner, who went to high school in Florida and college at North Carolina State. His place in a batting lineup featuring Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Austin Riley and Matt Olson would be scary for opposing pitching staffs.

It would make Atlanta favorites to repeat as NL East champions with an opportunity to win a second World Series title in three seasons. With all of that young talent, it would be positioned to compete for more than that.

Last year, when Atlanta lost franchise icon Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers in free agency, there was a contingency plan to trade for Matt Olson as his replacement.

This offseason could be similar, whereas if Atlanta loses Dansby Swanson in free agency, replacing him with Trea Turner is the next logical conclusion.

The Giants are in the market for just about everything you could think of, including a marquee free-agent shortstop like Turner.

Yes, they would like to replace their ace Carlos Rodon and will probably have to pay a high price to do it.

Yes, they have realistic sights set on Aaron Judge, probably the most important free agent available.

But they also need a shortstop and have watched Turner’s brilliance up close the past two years.

This would go against the East Coast destination theory so often thrown out there with Turner, but the Giants could outbid others and sell the stability of their franchise.

If there is a rebuilding team that makes the most sense for Turner, it has to be the Cubs.

They have deep pockets and high ambitions, and they’ve been in the free-agent shortstop market since last offseason.

Like Atlanta, this is not exactly the East Coast. But would the Midwest suffice?

Also, does it matter to Turner whether he joins another readymade contender, or might he be intrigued by a franchise’s potential turnaround?

As a key member of the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals and the Dodgers of the past two seasons, Turner is well aware of how quickly a team’s fortune can change.

If the Dodgers come away from the 2021 trade deadline with just half a season of Max Scherzer, one-and-a-half seasons of Trea Turner and no World Series appearances to show for it, that would be a massive disappointment.

Fortunately for Dodgers fans, it’s not quite to that point. The Dodgers still have as much financial wherewithal and competitive credibility as any team in baseball, probably the best combination of both.

With the Dodgers, Turner can feel good about getting paid and consistently competing for a championship. That’s the case for most of the places vying for his services, but none are more pronounced than the Dodgers.

Turner was brought in as the likely succession plan to Corey Seager’s departure. It will be interesting to see how the Dodgers would respond to losing Seager and Turner in consecutive offseasons.

But his time there has been nothing short of successful. Turner was third in WAR and fourth in wRC+ among shortstops, per FanGraphs.

It's worth pointing out anytime we do landing-spots articles for free agents that the Yankees are impossible to rule out, especially for the top players.

It's the same case here with Turner, who addresses an immediate need for the Yankees.

This is a team that was too reliant on the home runs, and here is a player who had the second-most singles and doubles among shortstops to go along with 21 home runs.

There also is not much of a comparison between Turner and the Yankees' incumbent shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The East Coast theme throughout the Turner free-agency narrative can't be overlooked, either. If Turner wants around $300 million and prefers this part of the country, the Yankees are among the favorites to make it happen. That's especially likely considering, like other teams on this list, they have been looking to fill a void at shortstop since the 2021 offseason.

The Phillies are already paying $20 million or more to several players in 2023. They have room for one more, especially if it’s one who could get them over the hump.

Is Trea Turner the difference between the Phillies losing to the Astros in six games or beating them in the World Series?

Probably not, and that’s far too simplistic a way to look at it. But he certainly makes their lineup stronger and improves their defense. He’s also an upgrade from either Bryson Stott or Edmundo Sosa.

Add this to Turner’s East Coast preference, Philly checks all the boxes. It spends money, has recently competed for a World Series, sits geographically in a place Turner would like to be and has a rabid fanbase.