MLB Players Most Likely to Be Dangled in Trade Chatter

With noteworthy deals involving Teoscar Hernández, Jake Odorizzi, Gio Urshela and others having already happened, Major League Baseball's offseason trade market is up and running.

So then, which players are likely to be next?

In coming up with a list of 10 names to keep an eye on, we figured it was best to focus on players whose teams might actually want to trade them. You know, for reasons relating to positional surpluses, payroll constraints and, in one case, bad chemistry.

We'll start with a list of players that other teams would love to get their hands on but who don't seem to be "available," per se. We'll then count down the top 10 in order of our speculative estimation of their trade likelihood.

RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

With Bieber's 2023 salary projected at $10.7 million, there's been some speculation about the Guardians shopping him. However, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM on Nov. 13 that the 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner "will be a big part" of the team next year (h/t Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors).

RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

Speaking of Cy Young Award winners whose salaries are rising, we're as intrigued by the possibility of the Brewers trading Burnes as anyone. The concept is a bit of a reach, however, and Robert Murray of FanSided says an actual deal is "highly unlikely" to happen.

3B Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been unable to extend Devers with his walk year looming, which invariably invites comparisons to the Mookie Betts situation from a couple of years ago. This time, though, the Red Sox have a ton of payroll space and truly seem determined to get something done.

DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

Seemingly everyone wants the Angels to trade Ohtani, and there's certainly logic behind the idea. But general manager Perry Minasian is a hard no on it, and it's that much easier to take his word for it after the Urshela trade and the Tyler Anderson signing.

CF Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Here's what Jon Morosi of MLB.com had to say about Reynolds' status with the Pirates on Nov. 8:

Honestly? Fair enough. The Pirates have indeed lost 100 games in back-to-back seasons, but there's more where Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz came from.

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 30 GS, 161.2 IP, 171 H (24 HR), 177 K, 61 BB, 4.90 ERA

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2023

Lucas Giolito surfaced as a trade candidate on Nov. 10 courtesy of Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who reported that "teams are asking" about the ace right-hander:

Granted, there are good reasons for the White Sox not to listen. If they were to trade Giolito now, they'd be selling low and opening up another hole in a starting rotation that already has a big one.

Yet the White Sox are also looking at something of a payroll crunch. James Fegan of The Athletic has reported that the South Siders are eyeing $180 million for their 2023 expenditures, which is just $8 million above where they're presently projected.

As such, it's not the biggest reach to think that the White Sox could eventually find themselves amenable to saving a projected $10.8 million by offloading Giolito.

For other teams, the risk of taking him would come with an obvious reward. Though Giolito has velocity in need of recovering, this is the same guy who pitched to a 3.47 ERA over 427.2 innings across 2019 and 2021.

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 2 GS, 6.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 10 K, 2 BB, 1.35 ERA

Contract Status: Signed through 2024

As the Nov. 15 deadline for teams to protect players from the Rule 5 draft loomed, Morosi had an interesting report on Nov. 13 about other teams trying to acquire Rays pitchers:

The Rays ultimately did trade away some pitching, but not Tyler Glasnow. Yet if there's a reason to think such a deal could still happen, it has to do with his upcoming salaries:

• 2023: $5.4 million
• 2024: $25 million

That's a huge leap, and it's frankly shocking that the Rays agreed to it when they extended Glasnow back in August. He was, after all, not even back from Tommy John surgery yet.

Though Glasnow still had the hard fastball and hammer curveball that brought him success prior to the procedure—which he notably blamed on MLB's sticky stuff crackdown—he also didn't throw more than 64 pitches in any of his three outings after his return, which included one start in the postseason.

If Glasnow's durability doesn't make a full recovery in 2023, his 2024 salary would become immovable. So if the Rays are ever going to cash him in, this winter may be their last best chance to do so.

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 158 G, 641 PA, 17 HR, 9 SB, .271 AVG, .342 OBP, .440 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2023

If notions of the Cubs trading Ian Happ don't come true, well, it wouldn't be for the first time.

The North Siders went against expectations when they held on to Happ at the Aug. 2 trade deadline. It wouldn't be surprising if they did so again this winter, as it's generally a good idea for teams to keep Gold Glove-winning All-Stars if they're looking to contend.

And yet, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported on Nov. 9 that Happ is "likely to start '23 in a new uniform."

If this does prove to be the case, it could be because the Cubs don't see their contention window being realistically open just yet, especially if they miss out on Carlos Correa in free agency, just as they did last winter.

Or, maybe the Cubs will trade Happ simply because they see this winter as the right time to sell high. Though Happ has had plenty of good moments, it took until this year for him to actually have a good season. Considering his age, it could prove to be an outlier.

Age: 25

2022 Stats: 140 G, 572 PA, 24 HR, 10 SB, .257 AVG, .310 OBP, .451 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2024

Within the same MLB Network segment in which Heyman floated Giolito as a trade candidate, Joel Sherman of the New York Post said he expected the Yankees to "try to move a middle infielder."

That means Isiah Kiner-Falefa or, even better, Gleyber Torres.

It wasn't long ago that the Yankees made a real effort to trade the two-time All-Star second baseman. Heyman reported they came "somewhat close" to moving Torres to the Miami Marlins for right-hander Pablo López in August.

There are forces at work that make a trade of Torres seem less likely now. At least until they can re-sign Aaron Judge, the Yankees simply can't spare any bats from an offense that was last seen getting shut down in the American League Championship Series.

Yet if the Yankees do re-sign Judge, a Torres trade would at least be worth exploring. If not as a way to land a necessary piece, such as a late-inning reliever, perhaps New York could seek a trade to free up a roster spot and extra money for one of the big-name shortstops in free agency.

Age: 30

2022 Stats: 125 G, 522 PA, 29 HR, 1 SB, .255 AVG, .315 OBP, .492 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2023

If not Corbin Burnes, it sure would be something if the Brewers traded one of their other stars. Say, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames or even 2018 National League MVP Christian Yelich.

Yet this also seems to be wishful thinking. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote on Nov. 14, the Brewers are looking to "reconfigure" their payroll, with Kolten Wong or Hunter Renfroe as the likely trade chips.

Though the former is a decent trade candidate in his own right, a trade of the latter may be more to the Brewers' advantage.

For one thing, they would be ducking a walk-year salary projected at $11.2 million. The Brewers could reinvest those savings into some of their more pressing needs, such as pitching depth and somebody who specializes in defense.

That's something that Renfroe does not do despite his excellent arm, but there's plenty of appeal in his bat. He can hit you 30 home runs, and guys like that are going to be in demand even if the new rules on deck for 2023 shift the game away from the three true outcomes.

Age: 26

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 157 H (21 HR), 174 K, 53 BB, 3.75 ERA

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2025

Stop us if you've heard this one before, but Heyman reported on Nov. 8 that the Marlins are shopping Pablo López once again:

The Marlins' embarrassment of riches on the pitching front is not what it once was. Top prospect Max Meyer had to have Tommy John surgery in August, while Sixto Sánchez had his second shoulder surgery in as many years in September.

All the same, the Marlins indeed need more oomph for an offense that's fresh of ranking last in the NL in scoring. And with their 2023 payroll already set to surpass what they spent in 2022, trades seem like a more practical path to acquiring oomph than free agency.

To this end, López is a sensible sacrifice.

He exists in that sweet spot of being an effective pitcher without being No. 1 material. He's thus a fair deal more expendable than newly minted NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, and his two remaining years of club control should have as much appeal as his talent for prospective buyers.

Age: 25

2022 Stats: 99 G, 354 PA, 8 HR, 23 SB, .283 AVG, .342 OBP, .427 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2028

Though this past season was an otherwise forgettable 74-88 affair, the Diamondbacks came away from it with a surplus of left-handed-hitting outfielders. Cue Mike Hazen getting an idea.

"You take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together," Arizona's GM told reporters in October.

Granted, this was before the Diamondbacks made an upside-play trade with the Seattle Mariners for Kyle Lewis, who seemed well on his way to becoming a right-handed slugger as he was winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2020.

But if the Snakes have it in mind to get someone more established, they might still look to trade one of their lefty-hitting outfielders. None threads the "valuable, yet expendable" needle quite like Jake McCarthy, who just finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

His profile comes with questionable metrics, but his 98th-percentile sprint speed will be that much more of an asset if the pitch clock, larger bases and limits on pickoffs lead to an increase in stolen base attempts. Plus, six more years of club control is a lot.

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 136 G, 547 PA, 14 HR, 0 SB, .219 AVG, .344 OBP, .344 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2023

Even after the Lewis trade diminished their outfield depth, Morosi reported on Nov. 15 that the Mariners are still willing to move Jesse Winker:

It was only in March of this year that the Mariners acquired Winker from the Cincinnati Reds, but it's not strictly because of this year's poor offensive production that he's fallen out of favor in Seattle.

Take it from Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, who said in an October radio interview on the Brock & Sock show (via Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com) that Winker had become "a tired act" and that his teammates "were just tired of putting up with him" by the end of the year.

That's a yikes, but one can still view Winker as a worthwhile change-of-scenery candidate.

To wit, he posted an excellent .945 OPS across 2020 and 2021. If he were to return to that level of production, his new team would be able to be that much more patient with whatever act he brings to the table.

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 72 G, 248 PA, 15 HR, 1 SB, .260 AVG, .339 OBP, .516 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2024

There's perhaps nothing rarer in baseball than a surplus of talented catchers. Yet that's what the Blue Jays have, and Morosi reported on Nov. 8 that they may turn to the trade market to ease the logjam:

There's no real weak link between Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno, specifically to the extent that all three can hit. As evidenced by the .663 OPS collectively posted at the position in 2022, most catchers can't.

But if it's a question of who's going to be the odd man out going forward, the scales would seem to tip toward Jansen.

Kirk, who's perhaps best described as "enterprising," got the bulk of the reps amid an All-Star campaign in 2022. Moreno, meanwhile, entered this year as a top-10 prospect and ultimately hit .319 in 25 games with the big club. To call his future "bright" would be understating it.

Rather than for prospects, it seems within the realm of doable that the Blue Jays would be able to flip Jansen for a player (or players) that could step in and help right away, such as a mid-rotation starter or a late-inning reliever.

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 148 G, 612 PA, 18 HR, 1 SB, .250 AVG, .332 OBP, .426 SLG

Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible through 2025

It might be a reach to suggest that the Athletics also have a catching surplus. But with Shea Langeliers already in the majors alongside Sean Murphy and top prospect Tyler Soderstrom standing by in the minors, they are trending toward one.

That's one reason why the A's could seek a taker for Murphy, with another being that it would be a means for them to cut their payroll even more after this year's fire sale. He's projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration.

There's also, of course, the reality that other teams seem desperate to get their hands on Murphy.

"He's obviously a popular topic of discussion when I talk to other clubs," A's GM David Forst said of Murphy on Nov. 8. "But that was the case last offseason and at the Deadline. He still remains an A, and we'll see where the offseason goes."

Between his Gold Glove-winning defense, his prodigious power and his three years of team control, Murphy ought to have enough trade value to score the A's a haul of prospects. With the team's rebuild still in its early stages, they need as many of those as they can get.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.