Remaining 2022 Regular-Season CFB Games That Could Upend the Playoff

The 2022 college football regular season is nearing its end. Heading into Week 12, there are only two weeks left before conference championship week.

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its latest Top 10 on Tuesday night:

1. Georgia 
2. Ohio State 
3. Michigan 
4. TCU 
5. Tennessee
6. LSU 
7. USC
8. Alabama 
9. Clemson 
10. Utah 

With the exception of Alabama and Utah—both of whom have two losses—all of these teams hypothetically could still make it into the playoff. But plenty of potential upsets could drastically change who ends up in the final four.

Here, we'll run through the games that could have major playoff ramifications in the last two weeks of the season. While some are more likely to happen than others, most playoff hopefuls can't afford to lose another game.

We'll list these games in chronological order.

When: Nov. 19 at 7 p.m. ET

It's a bit surprising that the Tennessee Volunteers, whom the Georgia Bulldogs dominated in Week 10, are still right outside of the Top Four. But since that was Tennessee's only loss and Georgia is the top-ranked team, it makes sense.

If chaos were to engulf the teams above Tennessee, the Vols could still find their way into the playoff. That might be unlikely, but it's possible.

That's why Tennessee's game at South Carolina is so important.

The Vols are a 22-point favorite over the Gamecocks, and they have won the last three straight meetings between the two. Still, South Carolina is 4-2 at home, and there's no question that upsetting a potential playoff team would make head coach Shane Beamer's second year a success.

Even if Tennessee wins a close one over South Carolina, that may hurt its playoff chances. The Vols' best bet is to blow out the Gamecocks, as losing or winning a close one probably won't cut it for the committee.

When: Nov. 19 at 8 p.m. ET

USC is 9-1, with only one road loss to Utah on its resume. The Trojans are seventh in the latest CFP rankings, which means they have a great shot of making the playoff if they win out.

Meanwhile, UCLA looked like one of the strongest teams in the Pac-12 earlier this season. The Bruins were undefeated before losing 45-30 to Oregon on Oct. 22. Arizona also upset them last week, 34-28.

Since 2018, this series is split at two games apiece. The Bruins won 62-33 last year, but USC won in 2019 and 2020. UCLA beat USC for the first time in three seasons back in 2018.

Both of these offenses can put up points. UCLA is averaging 39.5 per game. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 2,385 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season, while running back Zach Charbonnet has rushed for 1,145 yards and 13 scores.

But the USC offense, led by Heisman candidate Caleb Williams, is more explosive than UCLA's. The Trojans are averaging 42.4 points per game, which ranks third nationally.

If this game ends up being a shootout, USC's red-zone defense may be the deciding factor. The Trojans are tied for 18th nationally, allowing opposing offenses to score on only 76.2 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line.

If USC loses another game, it would knock the Pac-12 out of the playoff entirely.

When: Nov. 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Although North Carolina is 13th in the latest CFP rankings—the lowest-ranked one-loss team in the nation—it still has an outside chance to secure a playoff bid. If UNC beats Clemson in the ACC championship game, that might be enough.

The Tar Heels lost 45-32 earlier in the season to Notre Dame, in a game that was much more competitive than Clemson's loss to the Irish. UNC will also have played against three teams in the current CFP rankings in Notre Dame, NC State and Clemson.

The Tar Heels have to get past NC State first before they look ahead to the ACC championship game. The Wolfpack beat the Tar Heels 34-30 last season after a thrilling back-and-forth finish.

UNC has one of the most explosive offenses in the country this season at 40.1 points per game. True freshman quarterback Drake Maye leads the nation in total offense with 3,996 yards. But NC State will be one of the toughest defensive units UNC has faced all season.

The Wolfpack are tied for 13th in scoring defense at only 18.1 points allowed per game. NC State is also 18th in third-down conversion rate, allowing opponents to convert only 31.1 percent of their third-dow attempts.

This should be a fun matchup between a high-scoring offense and a stingy defense. If the Tar Heels lose to NC State, even a win over Clemson won't be enough to give UNC a playoff bid.

When: Nov. 26 at 4 p.m. ET

The Horned Frogs are on track to make it into the playoff as long as they remain undefeated. Led by quarterback Max Duggan, TCU's offense is averaging 486.1 yards per game, which ranks 12th nationally. The Horned Frogs' defense is equally impressive, having forced 14 turnovers so far this year.

The biggest hurdle standing in the way of an undefeated season for TCU is its game against Iowa State in the last week of the regular season.

The Horned Frogs have lost three straight games against the Cyclones. Last season, Iowa State beat TCU 48-14.

But 2022 has been going quite differently than years past for Iowa State under head coach Matt Campbell.

With the exception of Campbell's first season in Ames in 2016, the Cyclones have finished above .500 every season. Iowa State's best finish came in 2020, as the Cyclones went 9-3 with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon.

This year, Iowa State is 4-6, including losses in six of its last seven games. Depending on what happens this week against Texas Tech, Iowa State could be playing for bowl eligibility against TCU. Dashing the Horned Frogs' playoff hopes would also be the silver lining to a down year.

If TCU stumbles at home against Iowa State, that might knock it out of the playoff. The good news for TCU is that Iowa State no longer has Breece Hall. Last year, Hall rushed for 242 yards and three touchdowns against the Horned Frogs.

When: Nov. 26 at Noon ET

For the second straight season, The Game between Michigan and Ohio State has massive playoff implications. Both teams look likely to enter this game undefeated, and the winner will win the Big Ten East and play in the Big Ten championship game.

Last year, Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since 2011. However, that game was played in Ann Arbor, whereas this year's will be played in Columbus. Michigan hasn't beaten the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe since 2000.

Both of these offenses can score a lot of points. The Buckeyes are second nationally in scoring offense at 46.8 points per game, while Michigan is fifth at 41.4 points per game.

Both teams' quarterbacks have played well this season, too. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, who was a Heisman finalist last year, has thrown for 2,750 yards and 34 touchdowns, tied for the most in the country. Michigan's J.J. McCarthy has thrown for 1,744 yards and 14 touchdowns.

But these offenses have had success on the ground as well. Michigan's Blake Corum is fifth nationally with 1,349 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. OSU's Miyan Williams and TreyVeyon Henderson have combined for 1,335 yards and 19 touchdowns on the year.

Michigan's defense might have the edge in this one. The Wolverines rank first nationally in total defense, allowing only 232.8 yards per game. Ohio State is giving up only 271.5 yards per game, though, so both defenses have played well.

While the Big Ten West is still up for grabs between Illinois, Iowa, Purdue and Minnesota, whoever goes to the Big Ten title game representing the East will likely be heavily favored.

Ohio State and Michigan currently ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. The loser of a close game here could still end up with a bid, but that would likely require a lot of two-loss conference champions.

Considering how well these two have played all season, it would be hard to keep one of them out of the playoff if this game comes down to a last-second field goal.

When: Nov. 26 at 7 p.m. ET

It may seem like a long shot, but LSU could still make it into the playoff. Although the Tigers have two losses to Florida State and Tennessee on their resume, it would be hard to keep them out if they upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

A two-loss team has never made it into the playoff, but the SEC champion has also never missed out on the playoff. It helps that LSU's two losses are to currently ranked teams.

Before LSU has a chance to upset Georgia, it has to get past Texas A&M first. A three-loss conference champion certainly would not make it into the playoff, especially since A&M will finish below .500 this season.

LSU beat Texas A&M last season 27-24. The Aggies took a 24-20 lead with 7:33 left, but LSU scored a touchdown in the game's final minute to escape with a victory.

The home team has had an edge in this series recently. Texas A&M won 20-7 in College Station in 2020. The Aggies also beat LSU in College Station in 2018, winning 74-72 in a seven-overtime thriller that led the NCAA to change its overtime rules.

LSU should be heavily favored in this one. But Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher, who is now squarely on the hot seat, would assuredly like to ruin LSU's playoff chances to get back in fans' good graces.

When: Nov. 26 at 7:30 p.m.

USC's game against UCLA isn't the only chance for its playoff hopes to get ruined. To close out the regular season, USC has to go on the road to face Notre Dame.

Since losing to Ohio State, Marshall and Stanford earlier in the season, ND has been on a 4-0 run. Notre Dame's biggest win came on Nov. 5 when it upset undefeated Clemson 35-14 in South Bend. The week before that, the Irish beat then-No. 16 Syracuse 41-24 on the road.

Irish running back Audric Estime has rushed for 276 yards and three touchdowns in the past three weeks. Quarterback Drew Pyne, who started the season as the backup behind the since-injured Tyler Buchner, threw for a season-high four touchdowns and completed 81.0 percent of his passes last week against Navy.

Notre Dame hasn't had to do much on defense over the past four weeks since the offense has averaged 38.8 points per game. But the Irish rank 26th nationally both in total defense and opponent third-down conversion, allowing teams to convert only 33.1 percent of their third-down attempts.

Notre Dame is also riding a four-game win streak over the Trojans dating back to 2017.

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