College Football Odds Week 4: Picks Against the Spread for Updated Top 25 Games
The Tennessee Volunteers have scored at least 30 points in 12 of their last 16 games dating back to the start of the 2021 season.
Josh Heupel's team knows how to find the end zone, but there is one thing it has not done a lot of lately that could change on Saturday.
Tennessee comes into Week 4 of the college football season with a five-game losing streak to the Florida Gators, which have won all but one meeting between the SEC East programs since 2005.
Florida was one of a few opponents that held Hendon Hooker and the Vols offense under 20 points last season.
The Gators have the capabilities to match what the Vols put out on offense, but they have struggled with consistency in their first three games.
Florida opened the season with a win over the Utah Utes at home, but then it fell flat in a loss to the Kentucky Wildcats and underperformed in a win over the South Florida Bulls.
Both the Gators and Vols have something to prove on Saturday. Florida needs to show it can win on the road, while Tennessee has the pressure of a lengthy losing streak to its rivals hovering over it.
Florida-Tennessee is one of two Top 25 matchups taking place in the SEC in Week 4 and one of three ranked matchups across the country.
The Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks renew their rivalry in a SEC West clash, while the Clemson Tigers visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in an early-season test for both ACC programs.
Week 4 Schedule and Odds
Saturday, September 24
Kent State at No. 1 Georgia (-45) (O/U: 62.5) (noon ET, ESPN+/SEC Network)
Maryland at No. 4 Michigan (-17) (O/U: 65) (noon ET, Fox)
No. 5 Clemson (-7) at No. 21 Wake Forest (O/U: 56) (noon ET, ABC)
Central Michigan at No. 14 Penn State (-27.5) (O/U: 63) (noon ET, BTN)
No. 17 Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5) (O/U: 45.5) (noon ET, ESPN2)
Rhode Island at No. 24 Pittsburgh (N/A) (noon ET, ACC Network)
No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee (-10.5) (O/U: 62) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 22 Texas (-6.5) at Texas Tech (O/U: 59.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Middle Tennessee at No. 25 Miami (-25.5) (O/U: 52.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
No. 15 Oregon (-6.5) at Washington State (O/U: 57.5) (4 p.m. ET, Fox)
Tulsa at No. 16 Ole Miss (-21.5) (O/U: 65) (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Northern Illinois at No. 8 Kentucky (-26.5) (O/U: 53.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (-1.5) (O/U: 48.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Alabama (-40.5) (O/U: 58.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (-19) (O/U: 57) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
UConn at No. 12 NC State (-38) (O/U: 49.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Kansas State at No. 6 Oklahoma (-12.5) (O/U: 53) (8 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 7 USC (-6) at Oregon State (O/U: 71) (9:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
Wyoming at No. 19 BYU (-21.5) (O/U: 49.5) (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 13 Utah (-15.5) at Arizona State (O/U: 54) (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stanford at No. 18 Washington (-13.5) (O/U: 63.5) (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 20 Florida (+10.5) at No. 11 Tennessee
Florida may not come away from Neyland Stadium with another victory over Tennessee, but it will certainly keep the game within one score.
Tennessee's defense gave up over 30 points in each of its last four meetings with the Gators, and the unit has not been great against top-tier opposition recently.
The Vols ceded 27 points to the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 2 and allowed 41 to the ACC team last season. Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia all posted totals above 30 points against the Vols as well in 2021.
Tennessee is coming off one of its best defensive showings of the Josh Heupel era, but that result does not say much since it beat the Akron Zips, 63-6, to prepare for the Gators.
Anthony Richardson and the Florida offense should move the ball on the Tennessee defense, which will force Hendon Hooker and the Vols to surge down the field.
The over of 62 points may end up being the best bet in this SEC East showdown. Tennessee is 8-2 to the over in its last 10 games, which is a sign of where its offensive and defensive units stand at the moment.
The lack of defense displayed against Power Five teams in the last two seasons means you can't put full trust behind Tennessee to cover a 10.5-point spread no matter how iffy Florida's offense has looked at times early in the season.
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (-1.5)
Defense should also play a key role in the most important SEC West clash of the weekend.
The Texas A&M Aggies allowed 301.7 total yards per game and 8.7 points per game to start off the season.
They fell into the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons two weeks ago when they lost to the Appalachian State Mountaineers at home, but that defeat was more on the offense for failing to move the ball.
Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher brought in Max Johnson to start in Week 3 against the Miami Hurricanes. The 21-year-old wasn't phenomenal in the pocket, but he did enough to allow his team go ahead of its ACC foe and let the defense take over.
The Arkansas defense has allowed at least 24 points to all three of its opponents, including the Missouri State Bears out of the FCS last week. That is a change from the end of last season, when the Razorbacks held three of their last four opponents under 20 points.
Defense has not been the star of the show since the Texas A&M-Arkansas rivalry was renewed when the Aggies landed in the SEC. Both teams have scored over 20 points in seven of the last nine meetings.
The one common thread for most of those results is the Aggies coming out on top. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus Arkansas.
If the Texas A&M defense continues its current pace, it should hold down the Arkansas offense and allow Johnson and Co. to produce two or three touchdowns to win the contest inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
No. 5 Clemson (-7) at No. 21 Wake Forest
The ACC showdown between the Clemson Tigers and Wake Forest Demon Deacons is a prove-it game for both programs.
Clemson has been out of the national spotlight since its Week 1 win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Its offense struggled to get going in that contest behind quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei.
The Tigers have scored 83 points in the last two weeks against lesser opposition, and Saturday is their chance to prove the offense can thrive in important games.
Clemson's defense conceded just 42 points in the first three games, while Wake Forest allowed 36 points last week against the Liberty Flames.
The Demon Deacons arguably have the better offense with Sam Hartman at the helm, but their defense has been unable to stop Power Five opponents from scoring this season. The Vanderbilt Commodores put up 25 points against them in Week 2.
Hartman and his team were unable to match Clemson's pace last year in what ended up as a 21-point blowout in favor of the current kings of the ACC.
Wake Forest also came up short against the North Carolina Tar Heels and Pittsburgh Panthers in the back half of last season, so there is concern that the team will fail to deliver again in a big spot.
Clemson's defense is the most trustworthy unit on either side and that should be the strength that powers the Tigers to victory.
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