UFC on ESPN 40: Santos vs. Hill Odds, Schedule, Predictions
Jamahal Hill faces his toughest test to date against Thiago Santos in the main event of UFC on ESPN 40 from the UFC APEX Facility in Las Vegas.
Hill has steadily climbed the light heavyweight rankings since making his UFC debut in 2020. He has just one loss on his ledger but has rebounded with back-to-back first-round knockouts to set him up for his first main event.
In the other corner, he'll meet a Brazilian powerhouse in Santos. The 38-year-old has faced a litany of top names in the light heavyweight division and will pose a new challenge to the up-and-comer.
In addition to the light heavyweight main event, we will also see two champions crowned in The Ultimate Fighter 30 finales on the main card.
Here's a look at the complete fight card and a closer look at the biggest fights.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
Main Card (ESPN/ESPN+, 10 p.m. ET)
- Thiago Santos (+265; bet $100 to win $265) vs. Jamahal Hill (-320; bet $320 to win $100)
- Vicente Luque (-190) vs. Geoff Neal (+160)
- Zac Pauga (-275) vs. Mohammed Usman (+230) – TUF 30 heavyweight final
- Juliana Miller (-125) vs. Brogan Walker (+105) – TUF 30 women’s flyweight final
- Augusto Sakai (+250) vs. Serghei Spivac (-300)
- Priscila Cachoeira (+155) vs. Ariane Lipski (-180)
Prelims (ESPN/ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET)
- Sam Alvey (+450) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-600)
- Erick Gonzalez (+600) vs. Terrance McKinney (-850)
- Bryan Battle (-295) vs. Takashi Sato (+245)
- Josh Quinlan (N/A) vs. Jason Witt (N/A)
- Miranda Granger (+165) vs. Cory McKenna (-195)
- Stephanie Egger (-115) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+105)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Hill vs. Santos
The main event does pose some dangers for Jamahal Hill, but it feels more like a spotlight opportunity than a true test.
It's true that Santos has fight-changing power in his fists. The question is whether he can still unleash it. The 38-year-old has faded in recent fights. He has four losses in his last five fights, with a unanimous-decision win over Johnny Walker as the lone bright spot.
Walker is physically gifted fighter with a penchant for making costly mistakes.
If Hill can avoid doing the same things, he's likely to win this one in highlight fashion.
Santos has endured multiple knee injuries and doesn't move as quickly as he once did. Hill is still a good athlete capable of sticking and moving as well as landing hard strikes of his own.
The 31-year-old has come out aggressively in each of his last two fights and got the first-round finish. Santos is not going to be one to counter that strategy with grappling.
He's going to stand in the center of the Octagon, bite down on his mouthpiece and swing for the fences. That plays right into Hill's hands and should produce a familiar result.
Prediction: Hill via first-round TKO
TUF 30 Heavyweight Final: Pauga vs. Usman
Neither Zac Pauga nor Mohammed Usman are likely to stick at heavyweight in the long-term. Pauga has mostly fought as a light heavyweight before The Ultimate Fighter but jumped at the opportunity to compete on the show at the 265-pound limit.
Neither man came close to the maximum weight at the weigh-ins. Pauga tipped the scales at 239, while Usman came in at 236.5.
Regardless, they have an opportunity to make a splash and earn a UFC contract on Saturday night, joining a pretty illustrious group of fighters to have won the show.
Usman is the younger brother of UFC champion Kamaru Usman and has won a handful of fights with Titan FC before losing his one appearance with the Professional Fighters League. The Nigerian is a plodding wrestler who will look to close the distance and take Pauga to the ground.
Pauga is not a knockout artist by any stretch, but he has solid rudimentary boxing. He should be able use that to manage the distance and keep Usman from putting him on his back.
Prediction: Pauga via decision
TUF 30 Women's Flyweight Final: Miller vs. Walker
Juliana Miller and Brogan Walker ran through the competition on opposing sides during The Ultimate Fighter, now they'll battle it out to claim the title of Ultimate Fighter and the UFC contract that comes with it.
Both women rely heavily on their grappling skills. Miller was the only woman to get a finish on the show when she submitted Kaytlin Neil in the semifinals.
Miller's jiu-jitsu game can definitely play a factor. Walker likes to take her opponents down and wear them down with ground and pound. However, Miller can counter that game plan with a dangerous guard.
Ultimately, this one seems destined to go the distance unless Walker makes a colossal mistake and gets caught with a submission.
Miller is the younger fighter. She's 26 to Walker's 34. But that advantage in youth comes at the disadvantage of experience. This will just be her fourth professional fight but she seemed to grow in confidence through the tournament.
That could give her the edge she needs to outgrapple Walker on her way to a victory.
Prediction: Miller via decision