College Football Picks: College Football Bowl Game Picks, Part I
It's the most wonderful time of the year for college football teams that had the type of seasons worthy of bowl games.
While, in a lot of cases, the postseason has become a glorified showcase of depth and future talent as NFL-caliber players sit out non-playoff contests, there are still some terrific matchups full of good players and teams you may not often see.
The first wave of bowls (Dec. 16-26) doesn't feature a bunch of marquee teams, but if you love the sport and realize this is this year's swan song, you're going to tune in.
History tells us you're probably in store for some excellent games too.
It's our job to get you prepped with predictions for every early game on your television menu this holiday season, so here we go.
All times Eastern. All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
First Slate: Dec. 16, Early Dec. 17 Games
Bahamas Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB
When: Friday, December 16, 11:30 a.m. (ESPN)
Line: UAB (-11)
The story surrounding this game is how the UAB Blazers will play following the controversy regarding their coaching vacancy. The players wanted interim head coach Bryant Vincent, but the program elected to hire Super Bowl-winning quarterback and Lipscomb Academy (Tennessee) coach Trent Dilfer instead.
Aveon Smith took over for the RedHawks for transferred signal-caller Brett Gabbert, and while he stabilized things and helped them win their last two games to get bowl-eligible, he's far from a dynamic quarterback. The Blazers have DeWayne McBride, who has 1,700-plus rushing yards, and a decent defense led by Devodric Bynum. They are the better team.
Will they show up in Vincent's last ride? The guess is yes.
Prediction: UAB wins 28-17
Cure Bowl: No. 24 Troy vs. No. 25 UTSA
When: Friday, December 16, 3 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Troy (-1)
Whoever said the early bowl campaign wasn't going to give us some doozies didn't look closely enough.
The Cure Bowl played at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida, is going to be a fun one to watch between two conference champions. Who could ask for more than that before we even expected to pay attention?
Troy dominated Coastal Carolina—with Grayson McCall playing after returning from injury—in the Sun Belt title game, and first-year coach Jon Sumrall capped an outstanding 11-2 season. Quarterback Frank Harris, meanwhile, is a UTSA legend who has multiple school records and will be back for a seventh season after another Conference USA title.
First up, he'll spearhead an explosive group of playmakers for head coach Jeff Traylor, and he'll need them all to win this one. It will be close, but we're leaning Roadrunners.
Prediction: UTSA wins 38-35
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville
When: Saturday, December 17, 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Line: Cincinnati (-1.5)
This is another game worth watching. My esteemed colleague, David Kenyon, aptly named this matchup the "Awkward Bowl" between the Bearcats and Cardinals at Fenway Park in Boston. Why is it uncomfortable?
Well, as if the expected close matchup wasn't enough, former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield heard his name mentioned as a hot-seat candidate all year. So, after a strong close to the season, winning five of the last seven with the Cardinals, Satterfield jumped ship for the Bearcats, who will be coached by interim Kerry Coombs in the bowl game.
Brock Domann will lead the Cardinals under center before the Jeff Brohm era begins, replacing Malik Cunningham, who declared for the 2023 NFL draft. I don't expect them to muster enough offense against a strong Cincy D. Plus, Satterfield may have inside knowledge that can help. Will he share it?
Prediction: Cincinnati wins 28-27
Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
When: Saturday, December 17, noon (ABC)
Line: Jackson State (-15.5)
Since 2015, the Celebration Bowl has been played between the champions of the MEAC and SWAC. According to ESPN, the game celebrates "the heritage, legacy, pageantry and tradition of historically Black colleges and universities."
Everybody knows by now the story of head coach Deion "Prime" Sanders leaving the Tigers for Colorado. So, even though Jackson State has a bunch more talent than NC Central, the question is how the players will handle this being Prime's last game.
The Tigers have too much talent, and he will have them ready to go. But it will be closer than some think.
Prediction: Jackson State 40, North Carolina Central 31
Rest of Dec. 17 Games
Las Vegas Bowl: No. 14 Oregon State vs. Florida
When: Saturday, December 17, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Oregon State (-10)
Florida wasn't ever going to be favored to beat a strong Oregon State Beavers team because this first season for head coach Billy Napier has not gone the way he'd hoped after a season-opening win over then-No. 7 Utah, the team that ultimately won the Pac-12.
Now, he will close the season against another team from that conference, but he'll have to do it without an established quarterback. Anthony Richardson will not play after declaring for the 2023 NFL draft. Backup quarterback Jalen Kitna was dismissed from the team after being arrested on child pornography charges.
Ohio State transfer Jack Miller will make his first start.
The Gators simply don't have enough weapons to keep up with an Oregon State offense that improved once quarterback Ben Gulbranson and running back Damien Martinez were the bell cows. The future is brighter for Florida with the way it's recruiting, but it won't be evident here.
Prediction: Oregon State wins 41-23
LA Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State
When: Saturday, December 17, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Fresno State (-3)
This is going to be another fun game that you may not have circled as being one of the best of the bowl season. But the bottom line is Washington State head coach Jake Dickert's team is fun to watch, with high-profile quarterback Cameron Ward making the leap from the FCS in 2022 and improving as the season progressed.
Once Fresno State senior and leader Jake Haener got healthy, the quarterback led the Bulldogs to the Mountain West title, so you'd think this would be a shootout between two excellent signal-callers.
Don't forget these two teams have strong defenses too. This has the potential to be a very good, evenly matched game. I'll lean Washington State on this one.
Prediction: Washington State wins 30-27
LendingTree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Mississippi
When: Saturday, December 17, 5:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Southern Miss (-7)
On paper, this looks like the "meh" bowl between two teams that aren't very good. But, then again, those are the ones that normally give us some postseason classics.
Rice is one of the few teams in this bowl season with a losing record (5-7), and the Owls are heading to Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, to take on a Southern Mississippi team that has played much better at times than its 6-6 record. Head coach Will Hall's Golden Eagles go the way running back Frank Gore Jr. does. Yes, he's the son of the longtime NFL runner.
He will probably be able to find room against a Rice defense that ranked 91st against the run this year. Expect this game to be low-scoring and for the Owls to keep it close. But not close enough.
Prediction: Southern Miss 28, Rice 23
New Mexico Bowl: SMU vs. BYU
When: Saturday, December 17, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Line: SMU (-3)
This is a game between two teams that have looked pretty good at times this year and at others felt like a bit of a disappointment.
In Rhett Lashlee's first year replacing Sonny Dykes as head coach in Dallas, the Mustangs retained their high-flying offensive antics, but there were also games in which they couldn't stop anybody. They're 118th in total defense, and they are equally awful against the run (No. 121) and the pass (No. 92).
BYU was thought to potentially be the class of non-Power Five programs at the beginning of the year, but the Cougars dealt with injuries and faltered to 7-5. Dynamic quarterback Jaren Hall has been at the forefront of the injuries, and his ankle could keep him sidelined in this one. How he goes, BYU will go.
Is he going to play? We'll pick like he is and give head coach Kalani Sitake's team the edge.
Prediction: BYU wins 43-37
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs. North Texas
When: Saturday, December 17, 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Boise State (-10)
What a weird finale to North Texas' campaign. Though the Mean Green didn't have quite the season they'd hoped, they made it all the way to the Conference USA Championship Game and played UTSA fairly close in an ultimate loss that dropped them to 7-6.
The program rewarded head coach Seth Littrell for the accomplishment by showing him the door. Now, North Texas is looking for a coach to bring to Denton while preparing for the postseason. That'll almost certainly affect the team.
Boise State turned the corner when it found freshman quarterback Taylen Green. The Broncos may have laid an egg against Fresno State in the Mountain West title game, but they're the better team here and will prove it.
Prediction: Boise State wins 37-21
Dec. 19-21 Games
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall vs. UConn
When: Monday, December 19, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Marshall (-10)
What UConn has been able to do this season under first-year head coach Jim Mora is nothing short of remarkable, especially when you consider starting quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson was lost for the season in Week Zero.
Despite ranking 129th out of 131 teams in yards per pass attempt (5.2), UConn moved from being one of the worst FBS programs into a bowl game. Just phenomenal. The Huskies went 6-6 and actually beat Liberty and Boston College.
But they don't have the horses to hang with the 8-4 Thundering Herd. Running back Khalan Laborn and an exceptional rushing attack will be able to put points on the board, and a Marshall defense that ranked 10th nationally will do the rest. But still, what a first step back for Mora.
Prediction: Marshall wins 24-13
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
When: Tuesday, December 20, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: San Jose State (-3.5)
It's difficult at times to know what you're getting with MAC teams. They beat up on one another throughout the year, and sometimes, they go to bowl games and shock the world with how they play.
San Jose State knows this firsthand. A couple of years ago, head coach Brent Brennan enjoyed his best team with quarterback Nick Starkel at the helm. And then the Spartans went to the Arizona Bowl, and MAC squad Ball State blew them out of the water 34-13.
It's been an uneven year for San Jose State, which has had games in which it has looked sharp offensively and contests where it struggles to score at all. Eastern Michigan has the same problem.
This is going to be a low-scoring affair, and it's anybody's guess who wins. We'll go with MAC history over SJSU.
Prediction: Eastern Michigan wins 24-23
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo
When: Tuesday, December 20, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Toledo (-5)
Liberty is moving on from the Hugh Freeze era, and while the Flames probably hate that considering how well the new Auburn head coach had them moving, they fell flat in the season finale against New Mexico State to drop three straight to close the year.
Maybe it's time for a new direction.
New head coach Jamey Chadwell will have a nice building block in Tennessee transfer Kaidon Salter at quarterback, and Salter will have a good opportunity to shine against the MAC champion Rockets, who shocked Ohio 17-7 in the conference title game.
We expect Liberty to get back on track, but it's one of those games that could go either way, especially if Toledo can get another big day out of quarterback DeQuan Finn.
Either of these teams can make big plays on defense, and Liberty will have a game-changing one to seal the victory and prepare the program for Chadwell's arrival.
Prediction: Liberty wins 30-27
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky
When: Wednesday, December 21, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: South Alabama (-8)
The Hilltoppers haven't been the same team in the post-Bailey Zappe era, failing to score with the video game numbers they did a season ago. But they are still a capable offensive team that is playing much better late in the season, winning three of their final four to move to 8-5 on the year.
But South Alabama had an exciting season under second-year head coach Kane Wommack, who has started his career nicely with a 10-2 record in 2022 after a 5-7 showing in his first year resurrecting the Jaguars.
A one-point loss to UCLA and a four-point defeat to Sun Belt rival Troy are the only things standing between the Jaguars and an unblemished record. Toledo transfer quarterback Carter Bradley is the catalyst that makes them tick, and he will put up a big game in his finale.
Prediction: South Alabama wins 34-24
Dec. 22-26 Games
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force
When: Thursday, December 22, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Baylor (-6.5)
One of the most interesting early bowl-season matchups is between the Baylor Bears and the Air Force Falcons in the Armed Forces Bowl. The reason being is this Air Force team is exceptional at defense, leading the nation in total defense and ranking ninth against the run and second against the pass.
If anybody can appreciate that, it's longtime defensive coordinator and third-year Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, who has brought a hard-nosed mentality in his program too.
This hasn't been the repeat year the Bears hoped for after winning the Big 12 in 2021, but they slogged through the grind and finished with a 6-6 record to make it to the bowl.
They'll meet a 9-3 Falcons team that could secure a big win by beating a Power Five foe, but it's still hard to pick against the Bears here.
Prediction: Baylor wins 26-20
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri
When: Friday, December 23, 6:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Wake Forest (-1)
All eyes are going to be on Wake Forest senior quarterback Sam Hartman in the Gasparilla Bowl, because he has some big-time decisions to make following the game.
He could play another season for head coach Dave Clawson and the Demon Deacons, but he also could head to the NFL. Perhaps the most likely scenario is a transfer to the SEC, where he's been linked with Florida, Tennessee and others.
Could this showdown against Missouri be a sign of things to come?
Weapons like wide receiver Dominic Lovett have entered the portal. With Luther Burden expected to take a heavier load and quarterback Brady Cook playing better, though, Missouri should win.
Prediction: Missouri wins 37-34
Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana
When: Friday, December 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Houston (-6.5)
Before the season started, with Clayton Tune back at quarterback, a bevy of offensive weapons and a defense under acclaimed coordinator Doug Belk, I predicted Houston would be the best Group of Five program in the nation. The Cougars instead fell flat.
A 7-5 record is disappointing, and while Louisiana-Lafayette is back in a bowl game for the fifth straight year, the Ragin' Cajuns were also not happy with a 6-6 record in the first season following head coach Billy Napier's departure for for Florida.
Houston hasn't been what it hoped to be, but there is enough firepower for head coach Dana Holgorsen to post a big finale and promote hope for next year. Expect that to happen against an outmanned Cajuns team at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana, even if Louisiana will be playing not too far from home.
Prediction: Houston wins 38-27
Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State
When: Saturday, December 24, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: San Diego State (-7)
The highlight of the season and probably one of the biggest shockers was when Middle Tennessee went to Miami and shocked the Hurricanes, sending head coach Mario Cristobal one of the most embarrassing losses of his career.
What made it worse is the Blue Raiders were just a middle-of-the-row Conference USA team, finishing the year at 7-5. With Chase Cunningham throwing the ball, they can put up points, but can they stop anybody?
That clash of styles will be tested by the defensive-minded Aztecs, which also finished 7-5 but didn't suffer any bad losses, with setbacks to Arizona, Utah, Boise State, Fresno State and Air Force. Head coach Brady Hoke's team is going to get a bowl win.
Prediction: San Diego State wins 27-24
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State
When: Monday, December 26, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Bowling Green (-3)
This line is a bit puzzling. The Bowling Green Falcons have been up-and-down this year, and they finished with a 6-6 record. The Aggies are also 6-6, but they are on a tremendous heater.
After a surprising domination of Liberty ended coach Hugh Freeze's run as Flames coach, the Aggies added a season-ending 65-3 rout of FCS opponent Valparaiso, and they are going bowling after filing an appeal to the NCAA to count two FCS victories.
This will be the second bowl game in the past 62 years for the woebegone Aggies, and Jerry Kill has done a great job of turning around the program during his first year at the helm. I like New Mexico State to get a big victory to finish with a winning record.
Prediction: New Mexico State wins 24-23
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference. Player rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.