Ranking NBA Players Most Likely to Average 30 Points Per Game

The start of the 2022-23 NBA season has been defined by buckets.

Glorious, magnificent, often magical buckets—a whole heap of them.

Entering Friday night, nine different players are averaging 30-plus points. If you folks will allow me to venture out on this unbreakable tree branch, I'll make the anti-bold prediction that this season won't produce nine 30-point scorers, since no campaign has ever produced more than six—and that season, 1961-62, was the only one with more than three.

Saying all of that, regression won't rid this season of 30-point scorers entirely. If the last few campaigns are any indication, we should plan on seeing at least one and possibly two or three.

The task here is identifying which of these net-shredders is most likely to make the cut. Consulting the always reliable crystal ball is one option, but let's try to make this a tad more scientific. To craft—and rank—this list, everything under the sun is being evaluated, from track record and efficiency (i.e., should we trust these stats?) to usage and position within the offensive hierarchy (i.e., will their roles stay big to net that may points?).

Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

Phoenix's resident flame-thrower has never burned hotter than this, and he has no major threats for cutting into his offensive chances. If anything, the Suns might have to lean even harder on him with 37-year-old floor general Chris Paul starting to show his age.

Still, Booker's strong start is largely fueled by absurdly hot shooting (53 percent overall, 48 from distance), and his track record remains dubious about his sustainability. He's actually averaging a pinch fewer shots than last season and handling his lowest usage percentage (29.9) since 2016-17.

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Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

Durant might be the most skilled scorer this sport has ever seen, and the Nets are hoping he can single-handedly correct some of their roster flaws. He's playing over 37 minutes per game for the second consecutive season—a workload he hadn't previously handled since 2013-14—and his 20.6 field-goal attempts are the second-most of his career.

If both of those things hold true, he'll have a good shot at averaging 30-plus points for the third time. Brooklyn has to have some worry about burning him out, though, right? He might seem superhuman on the floor, but he's still a 34-year-old with a torn Achilles in his not-so-distant past. If the Nets get healthy, they should have enough offense to not need quite so much from Durant.

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Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid netted an Association-best 30.6 points per tilt last season, and he's seeing more floor time now than he did then, despite his offseason conditioning being limited. With an absurdly deep bag for a 7'0", 280-pounder, his argument as a potential 30-point scorer is one of the easiest to make, even if he's the lone player mentioned who's not scoring at that clip (27.6).

So, why am I not fully committing to it? Because I'm not convinced he'll see the usage needed to hit that mark. With two other 20-point scorers in the starting lineup (James Harden and Tyrese Maxey), Embiid doesn't need to carry the club on his shoulders. In fact, his 19.3 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes are the second-fewest of his career.

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De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

A huge hat tip is owed to Fox for stunningly joining this season's ranks of 30-point scorers. Through four outings, the sixth-year speedster is shattering his previous personal best—and even the most optimistic expectations—with 30.5 points per tilt.

Is this sustainable? In a word: nope. He has never previously shot better than 48 percent from the field and is suddenly canning 59 percent of his shots. His 42.3 percent perimeter splash rate also jumps off the page for the wrong reasons, since he's a career 32.2 percent shooter from three. Still, this out-of-nowhere wild run deserves some acknowledgement.

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Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

Tatum was an impact playoff performer as a rookie, an All-Star by his third season and an All-NBA first-teamer by his fifth campaign. It shouldn't be this easy to show perpetual improvement while starting from such a prominent place, and the fact that he has made constant growth so routine makes it tricky to doubt he's capable of anything.

Yet Boston's depth looms as a massive obstacle standing between him and a 30-point scoring average. He's basically burying everything he throws at the rim (55.6/37.5/90.3 slash), and the Celtics are still spreading it around because they can. Tatum's 20.3 shots per game are his fewest in the last three seasons and the same amount averaged by Jaylen Brown. If (when?) Tatum's shooting cools, he may not have the touches to keep scoring at this clip.

While Damian Lillard's 2021-22 campaign was an injury-riddled mess, the 2022-23 season has been a welcome return to Dame Time.

He's playing as if on a personal mission to vanquish all memories of Portland's second-half tank job. It took him all of two games to notch his first 40-point outburst. His second came his next time out. He has yet to score fewer than 20 points, despite an early exit from his last outing with a calf injury he fortunately isn't worried about.

This version of Lillard renders opposing defenses powerless. Give him an inch, and he'll pull from anywhere. Crowd him, and he'll explode to the rim before you can react. Throw the kitchen sink at him, and he'll either manage to score anyway or punish you with his passing.

Assuming good health, all of the ingredients are present for a 30-point average.

He has no major threats for touches. Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are heavily involved, but they won't seize control away from Lillard. He has never averaged fewer than 35 minutes per game, and Portland probably doesn't have the depth to make that cut now.

While his shooting percentages are up (49.5 overall, 39.2 outside), they don't feel unsustainably elevated.

Holy basketball brilliance, Beale Street.

Ja Morant has wowed with his aerial artistry before, but he seemingly spent the summer outfitting himself with a three-point cannon. Sure, he'll inevitably cool at some point, but his current rate of 2.6 threes per game on 56.5 percent shooting gives him enough cushion to potentially emerge from the other end of regression with a 30-point scoring average still intact.

While Desmond Bane might be in the midst of an All-Star leap and Jaren Jackson Jr. will command a not-insignificant number of shots upon his return from foot surgery, there are zero questions about who tops the Grizzlies' food chain.

Morant has a monstrous 35.3 usage percentage. The only other rotation regulars clearing 20 percent are Bane, Dillon Brooks (who has one above-average player efficiency rating in six seasons) and Tyus Jones (Morant's backup).

The biggest question for Morant is the sustainability of his torrid-hot shooting. His 52.9 percent field-goal rate isn't that far above last season's mark of 49.3, so that feels reliable enough. His 87.5 free-throw percentage is a sizable jump from his previous best (77.6), although his career-high 9.6 free-throw attempts could be here to stay given his ability to pressure opponents off the dribble and at the basket.

Still, his perimeter splash rate (56.5) is so far from his norm (career 33.5 percent) that a steep decline should surprise no one. Similarly, he's probably not going to keep dropping 48.3 percent of his jumpers a year after only connecting on 38.3 percent of them. If something pulls his scoring average south of 30, this will be the culprit.

If you run through the checklist for a 30-point scoring average, it's hard not to notice how many boxes Stephen Curry checks.

The first question worth asking is whether anything is happening outside of the norm. Not at all here. He's a two-time scoring champ who has twice averaged 30-plus points. His shooting rates are great (48.6/45.8/92.6 slash line), but that's to be expected from the top marksman in league history.

Then, you start poking around for potential obstacles, and there aren't many to name. Yes, the Golden State Warriors have other scorers—most notably Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson—but none are so incendiary that they'll often force the ball out of Curry's hands for extended periods.

Could injuries get in the way? Sure, but they aren't any more of a threat to Curry than they are your run-of-the-mill pro hooper. His ankle issues are thankfully a distant memory at this point. Throw out the hand injury that effectively erased his 2019-20 campaign and you have to log serious mileage in the way-back machine to find any alarm sirens on the health front.

OK, so why isn't Curry No. 1 then? Great question. A few things come to mind, not least of which is the extraordinary caliber of the players slotted at Nos. 2 and 1. Still, the degree of difficulty on his scoring chances—his average attempt comes 19.1 feet from the basket—could create more variance with his scoring than it does for some other elites. Finally, the combination of Golden State's depth and its egalitarian system could see the ball spread around to too many players for him to author this kind of herculean scoring feat.

If you're ever bored and seeking a mind-boggling experience, try poring through one of Giannis Antetokounmpo's box scores.

The enormity and versatility of his stat lines are almost always staggering, but his scoring has reached a new level of absurdity. It's not just that he's going for a wholly ridiculous 36.0 points per game, it's also that he's doing it on 67.7 percent shooting (not a typo) with a 40 percent success rate from three (neither is that).

No matter the method used against him, teams cannot keep him away from the hoop—or stop him from scoring down there. He's averaging an Association-best 11.7 buckets inside of five feet per game and converting those looks at an 87.5 percent clip. For context, he's a stone's soft-toss away from the entire output of certain teams (Toronto Raptors, 14.6 per game; Philadelphia 76ers, 14.8) and trouncing the connection rates of anyone (only his own Bucks are clearing 70 percent from that range).

"I think there's just adding layers to his finishing game," Bucks skipper Mike Budenholzer said, per Eric Nehm of The Athletic. "Obviously, he's got a ton of power, he's got a ton of finishing with dunks and everything, but I think when he adds the touch, he adds those, I think he can get some and-1s. I think it gives the defense another thing they have to think about and consider."

So, what could prevent Antetokounmpo from his first 30-point average? Probably nothing, if we're being honest.

However, the ranking aspect forces one to split hairs, so his denial of the top spot comes down to supporting casts. Once Khris Middleton returns from his wrist injury, Antetokounmpo will have more scoring support than the top-ranked player, so if Milwaukee moves to keep him fresh for the postseason (his 20.7 attempts per game are easily a career high), that could be the one obstacle he struggles to overcome.

Look, you always hope to maintain some semblance of suspense in these exercises, but did anyone doubt how this ranking would finish?

Tabbing anyone other than Dončić, who holds pole position in the scoring race with an astronomic 36.3 points per game, would be, at best, contrarian, or, at worst, simply foolish.

His three-balls aren't even falling yet—he's launching a career-high 9.5 attempts per night but hitting a career-low 26.3 percent—and he's still scoring at will. He has yet to put up fewer than 32 points in a game, and he even packed that 32-piece inside of a sub-30-minute night.

"He's just having fun with it, and that makes it hard to defend because you think you take one move away and there's no escape and no other move, no countermove, no nothing," Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber told ESPN's Tim MacMahon. "And all of a sudden, he finds a way to spin out and somehow shoots left-handed over his head—and he makes those shots."

Dončić, who incredibly won't even turn 24 until February, has skills so advanced that defenses are powerless to stop him. Once those triples start finding their mark—and they will; he was a 35-plus percent perimeter shooter in each of the past two seasons—it will be game over. All of his other shooting zones—inside of three feet, three-to-10 feet, 10-to-16 feet and 16 feet to the three-point arc—are at 50 percent or better.

Tack on his upward trajectory, a supporting cast who won't challenge him for shots (Dallas' next-best scorer is sixth man Christian Wood) and the Mavs' willingness to let him run wild (his 42.0 usage percentage tops Russell Westbrook's all-time mark of 41.7), and all arrows point toward Dončić being the safest bet to notch 30-plus points per outing.

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Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Oct. 27.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.