Fresh NBA Playoff Predictions and Championship Odds

The All-Star break is behind us, which means it's officially sprint-to-the-finish time in the NBA.

Remember, this isn't the halfway point of the season. Many teams have already played nearly 75 percent their games, so this chunk of the year is the equivalent of the fourth quarter. The playoffs are less than two months away.

Here, we'll use FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR record projections to set playoff seeds and matchups as we forecast what shape the postseason will take. The top of the East and bottom of the West remain a parity-riddled traffic jam, so it'll help simplify things to lean on those projections—rather than try to guess how hot streaks, injuries, schedules and late-season games against non-contending tankers might affect the final standings.

The tricky part comes next, as we'll pick winners from each hypothetical series all the way through the Finals. FanDuel's title odds offer some context, but they won't determine who wins each individual series matchup.

We can't let the computers decide everything.

Entering games on Thursday, February 24, FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR record projections have the following teams outside the play-in picture (title odds via FanDuel are in parentheses):

        

Eastern Conference

11. Washington Wizards (+50000)

12. New York Knicks (+50000)

13. Indiana Pacers (+50000)

14. Orlando Magic (+50000)

15. Detroit Pistons (+50000)

            

Western Conference

11. Portland Trail Blazers (+50000)*

12. San Antonio Spurs (+50000)

13. Sacramento Kings (+50000)

14. Oklahoma City Thunder (+50000)

15. Houston Rockets (+50000)

        

*The Blazers and Pelicans have identical projected records (34-48), but FiveThirtyEight gives New Orleans a 13 percent chance of making the playoffs, while Portland is at 6 percent. That's a big enough difference to break the tie here, putting the Pels in the play-in round and leaving the Blazers out.

FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projects the following order for the NBA's playoff seeds (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses).

          

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat (+1000)

2. Philadelphia 76ers (+750)

3. Milwaukee Bucks (+650)*

4. Boston Celtics (+2700)

5. Chicago Bulls (+2700)

6. Cleveland Cavaliers (+5000)

7. Toronto Raptors (+10000)

8. Brooklyn Nets (+550)

9. Atlanta Hawks (+16000)

10. Charlotte Hornets (+24000)

              

Western Conference

1. Phoenix Suns (+410)

2. Golden State Warriors (+410)

3. Memphis Grizzlies (+3000)

4. Utah Jazz (+1500) 

5. Denver Nuggets (+3300)

6. Dallas Mavericks (+4200)

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (+10000)

8. Los Angeles Clippers (+10000)

9. Los Angeles Lakers (+4200)

10. New Orleans Pelicans (+50000)

         

*Boston and Milwaukee have identical record projections, and a negligible difference in their chances of making the playoffs (Boston is at 99 percent; Milwaukee is at 98 percent). To break this tie, we'll go with current record, giving the 36-24 Bucks the edge over the 34-26 Celtics.

(7) Toronto Raptors vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets

If you could bank on everything going right for the Nets, they'd be the pick here. But Kyrie Irving won't be allowed to play in Toronto or Brooklyn unless both locales amend their vaccination requirements.

Add to that the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Durant's knee (or whatever malady crops up next), Joe Harris' bum ankle and the challenge of building chemistry on a roster remade at the deadline, and there are just too many potential downsides in play. The upside is also, admittedly, huge.

The Raptors have four players—OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and Thaddeus Young—who can alternate harassing a hypothetically healthy Durant, and the Nets will struggle to contain Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. on the other end.

Prediction: Raptors

          

(9) Atlanta Hawks vs. (10) Charlotte Hornets

If you're hankering for buckets, this'll be the play-in game for you. The Hawks are third in offense, and the Hornets are 12th with the added bonus of being among the most efficient and electrifying transition attacks in the league.

Nobody's going to play any defense in this one.

Two factors ultimately give the Hawks an advantage: Trae Young and experience. Charlotte is in happy-to-be-here territory, while Young and the Hawks have already seen the conference finals. It's possible LaMelo Ball uses this game as a springboard, similar to how Young's 2021 postseason felt like a grand arrival. But it's not likely.

Prediction: Hawks

           

(8) Brooklyn Nets vs. (9) Atlanta Hawks

The postseason magnifies every weak point, and Atlanta's No. 28 defense is a red flag big enough to be visible from space.

Young is capable of taking over in a single-elimination situation and rendering his team's lack of stopping power meaningless, but even he's not as dangerous in that regard as Durant.

The same concerns apply here for the Nets as they did against the Raptors, but Atlanta simply isn't as complete or experienced as Toronto. Brooklyn's margin for error is greater in this matchup than the previous one.

Toss in Ben Simmons as an option to make Young work against size and length, and the Nets feel like the easy pick to secure the final playoff seed.

Prediction: Nets

(7) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (8) Los Angeles Clippers

I'd give the Clippers even odds to get past the Timberwolves if Paul George is healthy enough to play in April. That might even undersell it; Los Angeles went 3-0 against the Wolves in three matchups before George's elbow knocked him out of action in late December. Kawhi Leonard seems like the longer shot to return, but his involvement in a hypothetical play-in matchup would give the Clips an even greater edge.

This pick, then, hinges mostly on whether the Clips intend to push for success this season or continue operating as if 2021-22 is a gap year. George could return by the second week of March. If he does, lock the Clippers in to advance on the strength of their defense and star power.

Prediction: Clippers

             

(9) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (10) New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have played .500 ball following a 3-16 start, Brandon Ingram is enjoying another miniature leap, deadline acquisition CJ McCollum adds reliable shooting to a roster that needed it, and rookie Herb Jones is already among the league's very best wing defenders. He won't stop LeBron James, but he'll disrupt everything L.A. does on offense.

Maybe Zion Williamson will even play basketball this year! OK, probably not. But still: New Orleans has a few things going for it.

Throw in Anthony Davis' latest foot injury, which will sideline him for at least four weeks and force James to shoulder a heavier load in an already exhausting age-37 season, and it almost starts to feel like New Orleans is (gulp) the safer pick.

And yet...I still can't do it. Bet against James figuring out how to beat a wildly inexperienced 10th seed all by himself if you want. Just know wagers like that tend to put you on the wrong side of history.

Prediction: Lakers

           

(7) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (9) Los Angeles Lakers

Minnesota is a wrecking ball with its three best players on the floor. Even if games like this depend largely on matchups, it's hard to look past the plus-12.0 net rating when Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell play together—which they figure to do more than usual in a win-or-go-home situation.

Contrast that with the negative net ratings L.A. produces in James-Davis minutes—with or without the damaging presence of Russell Westbrook—and the cold analytics don't sugarcoat it: Minnesota should be the favorite here.

Getting past the Pels is one thing, but the Wolves pose the kind of legit challenge you can't just brush past with a "LeBron will find a way" dismissal. We haven't seen a Wolves-Lakers game with both teams at full strength this season, but Minnesota is 2-1 with a couple of blowout wins, and Towns has dominated in both games he's played.

Prediction: Timberwolves

(1) Miami Heat vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets

You won't find many eighth seeds scarier than these Nets, who head into any series with a chance to win as long as Kevin Durant can walk upright. Brooklyn's addition of Goran Dragic, who showed out for the Heat in their 2020 Finals run, adds a fun layer of double-agent intrigue as well.

Brooklyn's defense has been abysmal for weeks, dragging its full-season ranking on that end into the league's bottom 10. Ben Simmons should help in that regard, and he's as good of an option to throw at Jimmy Butler as anyone. But it still feels like Brooklyn is a one-sided operation that tilts even more toward offense if it puts all its best players on the floor. Lineups with some combination of Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Patty Mills, Durant, Joe Harris (if healthy) Simmons and LaMarcus Aldridge just don't have enough collective stopping power.

It's possible KD goes for 50 a couple of times and helps Brooklyn steal this series, but that's not likely. The Heat are more balanced (top seven on offense and defense), more familiar with one another, grittier and less dependent on any one player to carry them than the Nets are. 

Prediction: Heat in six

            

(2) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (7) Toronto Raptors

This thing where Toronto trots out a bunch of 6'8" guys is fun, but the Sixers are the absolute worst possible opponent for that approach. Joel Embiid eats conventional centers for breakfast (after which he, presumably, wrestles grizzly bears to burn off the calories), so he might not even notice a handful of small forwards buzzing around him like gnats.

Toronto never hesitates to junk up its defense, but even Nick Nurse can't create the gimmicky tactic that both gets the ball out of Embiid's hands and somehow prevents James Harden from carving up a compromised and scrambling second side.

Prediction: Sixers in five

          

(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs have played with an oversized frontcourt all year, making them among the teams best equipped to build the wall playoff opponents annually construct against Giannis Antetokounmpo.

That'd be great if it were 2020. Nowadays, Giannis gets off the ball immediately when he sees that familiar obstruction, and the Bucks can get him touches in other ways—on the block, at the elbow, in a deadly pick-and-roll with Khris Middleton—that negate the strategy that used to work against Milwaukee.

Jrue Holiday will make Darius Garland's first playoff visit a difficult one, and Cleveland's lack of a proven wing defender could produce some big nights from Middleton. Evan Mobley can guard everybody, but not all at the same time.

The Cavs have had a feel-good season, and they'll be a playoff fixture for years to come. The defending champs don't care about any of that.

Prediction: Bucks in four

           

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Chicago Bulls

I got almost nothing right about this year's Bulls, a squad I thought overspent on DeMar DeRozan as part of a broader, ill-advised future-mortgaging gambit that would peak with a first-round exit. DeRozan is an MVP candidate, and the Bulls, when healthy, have been among the league's best teams this season.

Oops.

Still, that first-round out remains in play. Boston caught fire heading into the break, propelled by the pass-first version of Marcus Smart and a revamped defense that has unlocked a dominant Robert Williams III off the ball. Smart is on the short list of players you'd most want to defend DeRozan and his mid-range arsenal.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are problems the Bulls and their suspect wing defenders aren't equipped to solve. New addition Derrick White keeps the Boston offense moving, and the Celtics feel like locks to end the year as the league's No. 1 defense.

Even if Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball get healthy, they're point-of-attack ball hawks best used against conventional pick-and-roll point guards. Boston doesn't typically play with one of those, which deadens one of Chicago's greatest strengths.

Prediction: Celtics in six

(1) Phoenix Suns vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves

Chris Paul's fractured thumb comes with a six- to eight-week recovery timeline, which puts his availability for some portion of the playoffs in jeopardy. If he's not back in action for this first-round series, Cameron Payne and Elfrid Payton will occupy larger roles than Phoenix would like.

Devin Booker can take on more playmaking duties when necessary, and though the Suns haven't exactly fallen apart without CP3 on the floor this season, they own a plus-3.7 net rating in nearly 1,600 possessions with Paul on the bench.

Even if Phoenix's offense doesn't run as smoothly as usual, it will be able to compensate on the glass. Minnesota allows the highest offensive rebound rate in the league, and everyone in the Suns' center rotation is an ace on the offensive boards. Close your eyes, and you can see Deandre Ayton softly tipping in two or three extra buckets per game.

With or without CP3, this is a short series.

Prediction: Suns in four

                   

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) Los Angeles Clippers

If Draymond Green isn't all the way back by the first round, an upset is absolutely on the table—particularly if the Clips have one or both of their All-Star wings in the lineup. There might not be a team in the league with better personnel to short-circuit the Dubs' off-ball movement than a healthy Clippers squad that loves to switch screens away from the action.

Golden State went into the break a loser in four of its last five games as Green's absence loomed large. The ball stuck on offense, and the back line of the defense crumbled. These Clippers pasted a 15-point loss on the Warriors on Feb. 14.

Golden State has more top-end talent, though, and between Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andre Iguodala, Jonathan Kuminga and Otto Porter Jr., it boasts just as many big, switchy wings as the Clippers. Toss in Gary Payton II as a stopper and Jordan Poole as a spark-plug scorer who could win a game on his own, and the Dubs have more paths to victory.

We haven't even mentioned Stephen Curry yet. His All-Star Game explosion was a good reminder that nobody gets hotter when the lights are bright.

Prediction: Warriors in five

           

(3) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic has been up to something lately, cranking out at least 45 points in three of his last four games prior to the break. Between that and the fact that Dallas has beaten the Grizzlies by an average of 16 points in the three games Doncic has played against them this year, Ja Morant and Co. should be a little nervous.

Memphis has a great chance to climb the standings with Green and Paul out for extended stretches, and that should be a major priority because this matchup looks like one to avoid.

Doncic finally appears to be in shape, and the departure of Kristaps Porzingis further clarifies that this will be a one-man show for the foreseeable future. It just feels like Doncic is primed to produce the best playoff run of his career. That's saying something for a guy whose postseason track record includes averages of 33.5 points, 9.5 assists and 8.8 rebounds.

Quietly, Dallas has also climbed to sixth in defensive efficiency. Some of that is based on poor opponent three-point shooting, but the Mavs have been good at limiting attempts from deep as well. This isn't all luck.

A capable defense and Doncic peaking down the stretch is a tough combo to beat.

Prediction: Mavericks in six

          

4. Utah Jazz vs. 5. Denver Nuggets

It's tempting to go back to the well and pick Nikola Jokic to single-handedly upset the Jazz like we did with Doncic versus the Grizzlies. But Utah is longer on experience and perhaps more desperate to succeed—especially with a potential Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert breakup looming in the event of a playoff disappointment.

In 2020, these teams gave us one of the more electrifying series in recent memory. Jamal Murray and Mitchell traded 50-point games throughout, as Denver squeaked past with a two-point victory in Game 7.

The difference this time: Murray and Michael Porter Jr. may or may not be back from injury, and both will certainly be dealing with some rust. If Jokic is the best player in this series, Utah has at least the next three top talents in Mitchell, Gobert and Mike Conley. You could make a strong case Bogdan Bogdanovic makes it four of the top five for Utah.

We'll call for a long series, just to acknowledge Jokic's greatness and the possibility he'll have reinforcements. Utah is just the better team.

Prediction: Jazz in seven

(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Boston Celtics

Who's ready for a rock fight?

We've got a couple of top-five defenses squaring off here, complete with plenty of high-minute players on both sides who either don't shoot threes or haven't shot them well. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Robert Williams III, Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White all hit the break shooting under 32.0 percent from deep.

This feels like a series that will hinge on collective grit and offensive resourcefulness, so the team with Butler, Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker seems like the right pick.

Miami has more shot creation than Boston, with Butler, Adebayo, Lowry and Tyler Herro providing a quartet of scorers who can facilitate. Don't overlook Tucker's improved assist rate this season, either. And, rock fight jokes aside, the Heat are actually third in three-point percentage. If Duncan Robinson can stay on the floor defensively, he and Herro will provide enough stretch for Adebayo to get into his handoff game while Butler works inside the arc.

Boston has been great lately, but Miami has been a terror all season.

Prediction: Heat in seven

           

(2) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks

It'd be nice if the Bucks could count on Brook Lopez being healthy for this one. He wouldn't stop Embiid, but at least his size would present some resistance and spare Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from getting mauled down low.

The deeper we get into the playoffs, though, the more likely it is that Embiid's annual physical breakdown will be in effect. He has yet to play a fully healthy postseason.

Last year, he struggled with a torn meniscus. In 2020, an ankle hampered him. The year before that, his left knee betrayed him, with an upper respiratory illness piled on for good measure. Go all the way back to 2018, and you'll recall Embiid sporting a mask to protect an orbital fracture.

That last one was just bad luck, but you really can't ignore how Embiid's body has betrayed him so consistently. Maybe that changes in this postseason. It'll have to for the Sixers to beat Milwaukee.

Jrue Holiday guards James Harden well, limiting the 2017-18 MVP to 14-of-44 shooting with 21 assists against 20 turnovers in their one-on-one matchups over the last four seasons. If Embiid isn't totally dominant, the Sixers won't have the offensive punch they need to dethrone the defending champs.

Prediction: Bucks in six

(1) Phoenix Suns vs. (4) Utah Jazz

Start here: Phoenix has won all five of its matchups with the Jazz over the last two seasons. Head-to-head samples are always going to be small and suspect, but a 5-0 mark is compelling.

The Suns are well-constructed to continue that run, as Paul's pick-and-roll mastery will produce quality shots against Rudy Gobert whenever the Jazz utilize conventional drop coverage. CP3's right-elbow jumpers will rain down with regularity, and Devin Booker is just the kind of self-sufficient wing the Jazz's shaky perimeter defense dreads.

Mikal Bridges will hound Donovan Mitchell, Ayton will hold his own on the glass, and Conley will need to be at his absolute best just to play Paul to a draw in the point guard matchup.

Prediction: Suns in five

          

(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs will need Stephen Curry to put up a few more 5-of-24 shooting nights to have a chance in this series. That's what it took for Dallas to beat Golden State on Jan. 5, but the result was much different on Jan. 25 when Curry was more accurate and the Dubs had seven players in double figures during a 130-92 thrashing.

Ascendent rookie Jonathan Kuminga led the way with 22 points in that one, illustrating how Golden State has dangerous weapons up and down the depth chart.

Kevon Looney is one of the better perimeter-defending bigs around, but with Green back, the Warriors can downsize and switch everything. That'll force Doncic to do too much in isolation, a strategy that has worn him down and contributed to two straight first-round outs.

It's easy to forget now, with Green missing so much time and the Warriors slumping. But Golden State still has all the ingredients that made it a title fave for much of this season. Dallas doesn't have the scoring depth or strategic malleability to match the Warriors on either end.

Prediction: Warriors in five

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee made short work of the Heat in last year's first round, but the orneriness upgrades provided by Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker will surely prevent another sweep. At worst, the Heat are going to collect a win or two on competitiveness and willpower alone.

Strategy-wise, it'll be fascinating to see which of these two teams figures out how to keep its best shooters on the floor. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are integral to Miami's spacing, but both will be targets on defense. Likewise for Grayson Allen—and to a lesser extent, Bobby Portis in pick-and-roll coverage.

Postseason basketball tends to bog down, which puts greater emphasis on half-court scoring, an area in which the Bucks have been better than Miami this year. The Heat's struggles could compound, as Milwaukee is also better than anyone else at limiting opponent transition opportunities. There weren't going to be many easy breakouts for the Heat anyway, but the Bucks are particularly good at forcing teams to score against a set defense.

Miami also turns the ball over a ton, though the Bucks' conservative coverage doesn't produce mistakes very often. The Heat might be dodging a bullet in at least one sense with this matchup, as the Bucks don't play the kind of defense that exploits clubs with turnover issues.

In the end, we'll dispense with the matchup data and decide what will be a close series simply. Giannis is the best player involved, and the rest of the rosters feel relatively even in terms of talent. When it's close like this, go with the biggest star.

Prediction: Bucks in six

(1) Phoenix Suns vs. (2) Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green's back injury looms larger than any other factor in this matchup.

Golden State was 29-8 on Jan. 5, the date of Green's last game (not counting the seven seconds he ceremonially played in Klay Thompson's return on Jan. 9). The Suns had an identical record on that date but trailed the Dubs by 1.6 points per 100 possessions in net rating.

That's a good argument for Golden State being the better team at full strength, and we have to trust it more than usual because all three head-to-head matchups this year (of which the Warriors won two) featured key absences on both sides.

Klay Thompson wasn't back for Phoenix's 104-96 win on Nov. 30, and it didn't help that Curry shot 4-of-21 from the field. Devin Booker didn't play when the Warriors thumped Phoenix by a final of 118-96 on Dec. 3. 

The most informative meeting was the Dubs' 116-107 win on Christmas that didn't involve Thompson, Andrew Wiggins or Jordan Poole. The Suns were at full strength in that one, and Golden State proved it could keep Ayton off the glass with a combination of Kevon Looney and active small-ball looks. For the Suns to win this series (with Green involved), Ayton must prove he can dominate the interior.

Chris Paul's thumb injury may or may not be an issue when these teams meet, but it warrants mention if we're being thorough. Let's assume both he and Green are fit and ready.

In that case, this feels like it's going the distance and will be decided by either Curry or Thompson catching fire in the fourth quarter of Game 7, giving Golden State one of those rare road wins in an elimination game.

Prediction: Warriors in seven

If it comes down to experience, Milwaukee has more recent reps at the highest level, having won last year's title on the strength of a bravura 50-point closeout from Antetokounmpo.

The Warriors, however, have a handful of players who spent half a decade visiting the Finals annually. Maybe when you've got that kind of a track record, the three-year layoff between trips to the decisive round doesn't matter.

There's no solution for Antetokounmpo, and Golden State's lack of interior size could make it vulnerable against his downhill attacks. The Dubs were a top-five rebounding team until Green got hurt, which suggests Milwaukee's length won't necessarily lead to dominance on the boards.

Milwaukee will deploy Holiday to track Curry off the ball, and he might be one of the two or three players best suited for that grueling task. But then, teams have thrown the kitchen sink at Curry throughout his career, and he's averaged 26.5 points on a 45.0/40.1/90.6 shooting split in 112 playoff games. He's won 18 of the 22 series in which he's played. As is the case with Giannis, there's no solving for Steph—not without yielding clean looks for Wiggins, Thompson, Poole and the relentless off-ball cutters in Golden State's perpetual-motion attack.

The Warriors are much deeper than Milwaukee, with Poole bringing instant offense off the bench, Otto Porter Jr. excelling as a small-ball 4 and Jonathan Kuminga taking off. Gary Payton II puts out fires with the best on-ball backcourt defense in the league (with apologies to Holiday), and you just know Andre Iguodala is going to step out of the cryo-chamber the Warriors have kept him in for most of this year to register a handful of timely strips and perfect passes.

Other than Curry, who has long since shed his reputation as a defensive minus, the Bucks don't really have anyone to target. Meanwhile, the Dubs will drool over opportunities to go at Allen, Portis and Brook Lopez—if he's involved.

That'll be enough to swing things, narrowly, in the Warriors' favor. Title No. 4 is in the offing, and the dynasty that defined last decade will resume in a new one.

Prediction: Warriors in six

               

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 23. Salary info via Spotrac.

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