Predicting the Most Likely Trade-Up Spots in the 2022 NFL Draft

The 2022 NFL draft is going to be an interesting one. With no consensus top prospect and several teams with multiple first-round picks, we're likely to see a few surprises and perhaps even a few more trades.

No two draft boards will look exactly alike, and there's a good chance we see a franchise move up for a prospect it values more than other organizations do. This may be especially true when it comes to quarterbacks, as several franchises picking near the top have signal-callers in place.

Whet positions are most likely to become trade points in the draft? That's what we're here to examine. Below, you'll find a look at five Round 1 draft spots that appear primed for trades. Factors like team needs, draft capital, franchise outlook and expected prospect pool were considered here.

First, though, let's take a look at the full first-round order.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

2. Detroit Lions

3. Houston Texans

4. New York Jets

5. New York Giants

6. Carolina Panthers

7. New York Giants (from Chicago)

8. Atlanta Falcons

9. Denver Broncos

10. New York Jets (from Seattle)

11. Washington Commanders

12. Minnesota Vikings

13. Cleveland Browns

14. Baltimore Ravens

15. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami)

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Indianapolis)

17. Los Angeles Chargers

18. New Orleans Saints

19. Philadelphia Eagles

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

21. New England Patriots

22. Las Vegas Raiders

23. Arizona Cardinals

24. Dallas Cowboys

25. Buffalo Bills

26. Tennessee Titans

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

28. Green Bay Packers

29. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco)

30. Kansas City Chiefs

31. Cincinnati Bengals

32. Detroit Lions (from Rams)

There isn't a "can't-miss" prospect sitting at the top of the 2022 class, which means a trade all the way to No. 1 feels unlikely. That could change, of course, during the predraft process.

Once the first pick is off the board, however, teams may be eager to move up for a position-specific prospect.

According to the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest big board, offensive line and edge-rusher are the two deepest positions at the top of the draft. Four offensive linemen—Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Tyler Linderbaum and Charles Cross—and three edge-rushers—Kayvon Thibodeaux, George Karlaftis and Aidan Hutchinson—rank inside the top 12.

Depending on who comes off the board first, the fear of a positional run could cause a team to jump to get the prospect it covets. If, for example, the Jacksonville Jaguars take Hutchinson and a team loves Thibodeaux, then the No. 2 pick becomes an obvious trade target for a pass-rusher.

The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, already appear willing to make a deal.

"I'm never scared to move around, you know, so we're definitely open for business, always," Lions general manager Brad Holmes told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

The New York Giants have two top-10 selections thanks to last year's draft-day trade with the Chicago Bears. With the new regime of general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll publicly backing Daniel Jones, it feels highly unlikely that one of those selections will be used on a quarterback.

This makes the No. 5 pick a logical target for quarterback-needy teams willing to move up. Why? Because the Carolina Panthers are presenting the idea that they want Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett at No. 6.

"Word is, the Panthers are taking a strong shine to Pickett, which makes sense on multiple levels," Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports wrote.

"I don't think he makes it past the Panthers," one evaluator said, per La Canfora.

While Carolina's interest may be a smokescreen, a team infatuated with Pickett cannot take that chance. If, for example, the Denver Broncos have Pickett ranked significantly higher than guys like Liberty's Malik Willis and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, then they could look to jump the Panthers at No. 6.

The fifth pick could also become a very coveted trade spot if two of the top three edge-rushers are off the table by then. Michigan's David Ojabo (25th) is the only other edge-rusher ranked inside the top 32 on the B/R board.

The Giants also have the No. 7 selection. If they don't trade out of the No. 5 spot, they may still find trade partners as a result of Carolina's reported quarterback interest.

If the Panthers do take a quarterback at No. 6, it could potentially spark a run at the position. While this isn't viewed as a particularly strong QB class, the value of finding a franchise signal-caller is second to none.

Multiple teams are likely to roll the dice on quarterbacks in the first round. NFL Media draft analyst Chad Reuter recently mocked five quarterbacks—Pickett, Willis, Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell—in Round 1.

With the Broncos selecting ninth overall and the Atlanta Falcons a potential wild card at No. 8 considering 36-year-old Matt Ryan has just two years left on his contract, both spots could be ones to jump.

It would be mildly surprising if New York didn't trade out of one of its two first-round selections to acquire more capital. This is a franchise that hasn't been above .500 at any point in the last five years and one that will have to rebuild using draft capital: The Giants are currently projected to be $11.6 million over the cap.

Like the Giants, the New York Jets have two top-10 selections, with their second coming from the Seattle Seahawks in the Jamal Adams trade. While the Jets are armed with a projected $44.7 million in cap space and can afford to be free-agency players, they may still look to increase their draft capital with a trade.

New York's 10th overall pick could become a pivot point in the draft for multiple reasons. The quarterback market is one, with the Commanders sitting at No. 11 and still seeking a franchise player. New York took Zach Wilson second overall last year and won't be targeting a signal-caller again this year.

The aforementioned offensive-line and edge-rusher pools could be in play, depending on how the first nine picks unfold. Teams could also look to trade up to grab their top-ranked prospect at positions like defensive back, defensive line and wide receiver.

The B/R board has two receivers (Drake London and Chris Olave), one safety (Kyle Hamilton), one cornerback (Derek Stingley Jr.) and one defensive lineman (Jordan Davis) ranked in the top 10. Teams could be eager to move up to nab the top prospect on their positional board.

Jets general manager Joe Douglas will almost certainly listen to offers. In his first two drafts with New York, he traded down four times and up only once.

The bottom of Round 1 is always a spot to watch for trades because of the fifth-year options. First-round contracts come with an option year that, if exercised, provide a team with an additional season of control at a below-market price.

The fifth-year option is especially valuable when it comes to quarterbacks. 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield, for example, is set to play on his fifth-year option next season. He'll earn $18.9 million, which is below the going rate for a mid-level starter—Jimmy Garoppolo and Ryan Tannehill are both making more than $27 million annually.

The fifth-year option can provide an extra year of financial flexibility and an additional season of evaluation before franchises must choose between extending a player or moving on. If a team is thinking about taking a quarterback prospect like Corral or Howell early in Round 2, it makes perfect sense to trade up a few spots and make the pick on Day 1 instead.

The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, are well-suited to trade down from 31st overall. Unlike the Lions, who own the 32nd pick, Cincinnati has a Super Bowl-caliber roster. The Bengals can augment that roster in free agency with a projected $48.8 million in cap space.

Cincinnati should head into the draft with a fairly complete team and a focus on depth over any one position of need.

The Bengals will almost certainly have their phone lines open as the first night draws to a close.

      

Draft order via Tankathon. Cap and contract information via Spotrac.