UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev Odds, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-in Hype
The recently vacated light heavyweight championship is on the line at UFC 282, with Jan Błachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev meeting in the main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
It's been a winding road to create this matchup. Champion Jiří Procházka was originally slated to meet Glover Teixeira in a rematch for his first title defense, but a serious shoulder injury forced him to relinquish the title.
Ankalaev was called upon to step into the title fight, but Teixeira declined the matchup. So, the UFC went to former champion Błachowicz to create the new title bout.
So, rising star Ankalaev now gets his shot at glory early, while the Polish fighter has a chance to regain what he lost to Teixeira in 2021.
Here's a look at the complete card and the latest from the high-profile fights before the weigh-ins.
UFC 282 Schedule, Fight Card and Odds
Main Card (10 p.m. ET ESPN+ PPV)
- Magomed Ankalaev -280 vs. Jan Błachowicz +235
- Paddy Pimblett -245 vs. Jared Gordon +200
- Santiago Ponzinibbio -180 vs. Alex Morono +155
- Dricus Du Plessis -180 vs. Darren Till +155
- Ilia Topuria -135 vs. Bryce Mitchell +115
Prelims (8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+)
- Raul Rosas Jr. -230 vs. Jay Perrin +195
- Jairzinho Rozenstruik -170 vs. Chris Daukaus +145
- Edmen Shahbazyan -295 vs. Dalcha Lungiambula +245
- Chris Curtis +140 vs. Joaquin Buckley -165
Early Prelims (6 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass)
- Billy Quarantillo -165 vs. Alexander Hernandez +140
- TJ Brown -110 vs. Erik Silva -110
- Vinicius Salvador -245 vs. Daniel Da Silva +205
- Cameron Saaiman -365 vs. Steven Koslow +300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Błachowicz Not Afraid of Ankalaev's Impressive Record
It might have taken an unconventional path, but it felt inevitable that Ankalaev would one day fight for the light heavyweight championship.
It's a division that has long been defined by many of the same names, so when a fighter like the 30-year-old comes along and strings together nine-straight wins, it's especially noteworthy. His only career loss came on a last-second submission from Paul Craig in his UFC debut.
That kind of introduction to the weight class has made him a bit of a boogeyman, but Błachowicz does not count himself among those who are afraid of the Dagestani fighter.
"Look at his record, 17-1, nine-win streak—so it's time to stop it and make his record 17-2," the 39-year-old told reporters. "But for sure he's one of the best. I have a lot of respect for his skills and it's going to be a tough fight. I expect tough fight, and I'm ready for this tough fight."
Błachowicz is correct in acknowledging it's a tough fight. Ankalaev is not a carbon copy of other Dagestani fighters such as Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev. The pressure wrestling is in his tool belt, but he's an adept striker with the ability to overwhelm on the feet.
At this point, that's enough to overcome the "Polish Power" of Błachowicz. The former champion's best shot in this one is to land one fight-changing punch, but he's going to be on the defensive too often to find it.
Prediction: Ankalaev via fourth-round TKO
Paddy Pimblett Looking to Clear a Championship Bar
Paddy Pimblett has all the makings of a UFC star and he knows it.
The 27-year-old from Liverpool, England has a huge social media presence, no shortage of charisma and continues to deliver in the cage.
The lightweight is 3-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins. On Saturday, he'll see a big elevation in stage as the co-main event and an opponent in Jared Gordon who has seen quality competition.
The New Yorker fought former champion Charles Oliveira in 2019 when Do Bronx knocked him out in the first round. Thus, that's Pimblett's expectation for himself.
"He got beat by former champ Charles (Oliveira) in the first. So that's what I plan on doing: Come on out and finish him in the first round because I aspire to be champion one day. So the former champions finish him in one. I'm going to finish him in one," Pimblett said, per Steve Lattrell of UFC.com.
Gordon, 34, most recently picked up a unanimous win over Leonardo Santos and has won four of his last five fights.
However, this does feel like a spot designed for Pimblett to showcase his abilities. Gordon is 11-0 in fights go to decision but just 8-5 in contests that finish before the distance.
Meanwhile, Pimblett has gone to the cards just six times in his career and is 15-1 in bouts ending in knockout or submission. In other words, he's an aggressive fighter who is able to get the finish more often than not.
That's not a good matchup for Gordon.
Prediction: Pimblett via first-round TKO
Santiago Ponzinibbio Looking to Prove Himself Despite Late Opponent Switch
The main event isn't the only fight that has seen several changes before Saturday's action. Santiago Ponzinibbio was supposed to face Robbie Lawler on this card, but he'll meet Alex Morono instead after the Californian was forced to withdraw with an injury.
It's a less-than-ideal scenario for the Argentine Dagger. Lawler was 1-5 in his previous six fights, while Morono is on a four-fight win streak.
Regardless, Ponzinibbio is determined to get the win and get his own career back on track.
"I didn't have the time to prepare for him but I have what it takes to beat him. Sometimes things don't happen the perfect way in life but we can make them perfect. When I enter the octagon and beat him and have my hands raised, everything will happen for the better," he told the Trocação Franca podcast (h/t Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting).
The 36-year-old has had an unfortunate career arc. After a few disappointing losses at the beginning of his UFC career, he put everything together and ripped off a seven-fight winning streak before an injury sidelined him from 2018 to 2021.
The Argentine hasn't really looked the same since making his return. He's 1-3 since coming back, with a knockout loss to Li Jingliang kicking off the skid in January 2021.
At this point, it's hard to ignore the decline in performance. Asking Ponzinibbio to beat someone with the momentum of Morono on a week's notice doesn't seem realistic.
Prediction: Morono via decision
Gambling Problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.