Bleacher Report's Expert Week 15 NFL Picks

Last week, the underdogs barked loudly, but our NFL experts didn't hear the call and paid the price with a 3-9 consensus record. However, you can bet your bottom dollar that they're set to bounce back in Week 15.

NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O'Donnell and B/R Betting host of "Winners Only Wednesdays" Greg Ivory flushed their analyses from the previous week like teams do tapes from bad games. They're not discouraged, though—winners continue to take shots through slumps and turn their fortunes around. Our crew broke down a full 16-game slate to provide a strong batch of picks against the spread.

Before we get into our selections for Week 15, take a look at the leaderboard with last week's records in parentheses. O'Donnell remains in the top spot over Davenport and Moton, who are tied for second. Following our worst week, we're still in the green for the season with consensus picks.

1. O'Donnell: 104-98-6 (2-11)

T-2. Davenport: 102-100-6 (6-7)

T-2. Moton: 102-100-6 (6-7)

4. Ivory: 97-105-6 (5-8)

5 Sobleski: 94-108-6 (5-8)

6. Knox: 91-111-6 (3-10)

Consensus picks: 93-89-6 (3-9)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Dec. 14, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

Editor's Note: 49ers defeated the Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday night.

DraftKings Line: 49ers -3.5

Last week, Brock Purdy had an efficient starting debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, throwing for 185 yards and two touchdowns; he also scored on a two-yard run.

Purdy looked the part of a lead signal-caller, and the 49ers shellacked the Buccaneers without wideout Deebo Samuel (MCL sprain and high ankle sprain) for an entire half, which raises optimism for San Francisco's playoff hopes.

Moton believes the 49ers will put a stronghold on their NFC West division lead with a win over an inconsistent Seattle Seahawks squad.

"Geno Smith deserves Comeback Player of the Year votes. He's the league leader in completion rate (71.5 percent), and his passing production (25 touchdowns and eight interceptions) has fueled Seattle's playoff push. With that said, the Seahawks will stumble into this matchup after losing three of their last four games with a porous defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per contest.

"Anyone who's watched the 49ers under head coach Kyle Shanahan long enough knows that he's going to find effective ways to run the ball. Similar to last week, Purdy, who has an oblique injury, won't need to throw for 200-plus yards in a hostile environment at Lumen Field. He just needs to make timely and accurate throws. Running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason will do the heavy lifting on the ground in a decisive win for San Francisco."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Ivory: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

Consensus: 49ers -3.5

Score Prediction: 49ers 29, Seahawks 23

DraftKings Line: Vikings -4

The Minnesota Vikings have three double-digit losses, and their defense continues to sputter, giving up 458-plus yards in four of the last five weeks. They're a vulnerable 10-3 squad with a minus-one point differential headed into Week 15.

Even though 40 percent of the Vikings' wins wouldn't have covered this point spread, our crew seems fairly confident that Minnesota will beat the Indianapolis Colts by more than four points at home Saturday.

Moton expects the Vikings to run through the Colts run defense, which went on the decline before the team's Week 14 bye.

"The Vikings can control this game with their ground attack. Dalvin Cook may run for 150-plus yards against the Colts, who have surrendered an average of 177.7 rushing yards between Weeks 11 and 13. With the three-time Pro Bowl running back going downhill, Minnesota can keep the Indianapolis offense on the sideline to protect its 32nd-ranked pass defense.

"If the Vikings gain a decent lead, they can tee off on quarterback Matt Ryan, who, along with Joe Burrow, has taken the fourth-most sacks (35). Minnesota will bounce back from defeat with a comfortable win over a club that's lost six of its last seven contests."

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Ivory: Colts

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Vikings

Consensus: Vikings -4

Score Prediction: Vikings 30, Colts 24

DraftKings Line: Browns -3

Last week, the Baltimore Ravens had to send out third-string quarterback Anthony Brown after Tyler Huntley went into concussion protocol, but they still came out on top over the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-14.

Huntley opened the week at practice, and head coach John Harbaugh told reporters that the quarterback "seems good to me." The Ravens signal-caller has a shot to make his second start of the season this week.

Knox broke away from our consensus pick because he believes the Ravens' injuries hurt their chances to win the game. He also thinks the Cleveland Browns will correct mistakes from a Week 7 loss to Baltimore.

"If the Ravens were healthy, there's no way I would take Cleveland as a home favorite in this AFC North battle. However, Lamar Jackson appears to be unlikely to play, and while J.K. Dobbins played well last week, he did not look to be at 100 percent. That's enough to give the Browns a legitimate chance here.

"Cleveland's offense has not looked good since Deshaun Watson joined the lineup (one offensive touchdown in two games), but that could change against a Baltimore defense that's ranked 26th against the pass and 21st in yards per attempt allowed. The key for Cleveland will be avoiding turnovers. The Browns committed two of them in the last meeting and lost by a field goal. I think they'll do a better job of protecting the ball the second time around and squeak out a four-point win."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Ivory: Ravens

Knox: Browns

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Ravens

Consensus: Ravens +3

Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Browns 19

DraftKings Line: Bills -7

The Miami Dolphins don't have a lot of time to lick their wounds after a 23-17 Sunday night loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. They'll play the Buffalo Bills in the final game of a tripleheader on Saturday.

Left tackle Terron Armstead missed practice Tuesday because of pectoral, toe and knee injuries. Running back Jeff Wilson Jr., who exited the previous game with a hip injury, also missed the first practice of the week. Wideout Tyreek Hill has gone through drills with limitations because of an ankle injury.

The Dolphins offense operates at its best when the unit can go up and down the field with speed, but it may not look like the same offensive track team with three key injuries, which is why half of our panel went with the Bills.

Knox provided an opposing opinion for the other half of our group. He highlighted the Bills' tendency to turn the ball over and the Dolphins' impressive record when they register a takeaway.

"With Hill and Wilson ailing, I don't expect the Dolphins to actually win this game. Their offense didn't look good against the Chargers last week, and Buffalo boasts a much better defense than L.A. However, I do think Miami can keep it relatively close in this divisional matchup.

"This is a large line for any divisional matchup, and Buffalo hasn't been particularly great at protecting the football. The Bills offense has committed 20 turnovers this season (fourth-most in the NFL) and has been turnover-free in just three contests. Miami is 5-1 when forcing a turnover, and while I expect that record to fall to 5-2 this week, I see the Dolphins capitalizing enough to remain within striking distance. As the New York Jets did against Buffalo last week, Miami will narrowly cover in a loss."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Ivory: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Dolphins

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 21

DraftKings Line: Jets -1

The Detroit Lions have garnered playoff buzz with five wins in the last six weeks, and Jared Goff may have done enough to prove he's the team's franchise quarterback.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Lions intend to keep Goff for the long-term future. He's fueled Detroit's hot streak, throwing for seven touchdowns without an interception over the past three weeks.

Moton provided a warning to the public about the Lions after their three-game homestand. He picked the New York Jets with the assumption that Mike White will play after the signal-caller told reporters that he's "ready to roll" for Sunday's game.

"Bettors should be careful about their wagers for the Lions while they're on the road," he wrote. "In five games away from Ford Field, Goff has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions. Furthermore, Detroit will face New York's sixth-ranked scoring defense that also allows the third-fewest yards per contest.

"While the Jets defense slows down the Lions offense, White, if healthy, should be able to move the ball against a unit that allowed 394 passing yards last week. Gang Green will win a slow-paced game to snap a two-game skid."

Predictions

Davenport: Jets

Ivory: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Jets

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

Consensus: Lions +1

Score Prediction: Lions 24, Jets 22

DraftKings Line: Eagles -9

Over the past two weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles have kicked into high gear as they knocked off the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants by a combined score of 83-32. Jalen Hurts looks like the front-runner for league MVP, and the Chicago Bears lost six consecutive games before their Week 14 bye.

So, the Bears have no shot to cover a nine-point spread, right?

Sobleski says not so fast, my betting buddies. Though most of our crew disagrees with his pick, he made a great point about how Chicago matches up well against Philadelphia on the ground.

"Yes, the 12-1 Eagles are clearly the NFL's best team, and the 3-10 Bears own one the league's worst records. But three factors are working in the Bears' favor with this particular selection," he said.

"First, Chicago is coming off its bye with two weeks to prepare for this contest. Two, Justin Fields is dynamic under center and capable of making enough plays as a passer and runner. Finally, a rather large spread makes this a possible cover, since the Bears own the league's No. 1 rushing attack and the Eagles are in the bottom half of the league defending the run."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Ivory: Bears

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Bears

Consensus: Eagles -9

Score Prediction: Eagles 31, Bears 20

DraftKings Line: Saints -4.5

The Atlanta Falcons will take a good look at third-round quarterback Desmond Ridder. The rookie will take over the huddle after head coach Arthur Smith's decision to bench Marcus Mariota, who will undergo season-ending knee surgery.

The Falcons will go all in on Ridder, who completed 34 out of 56 passes for 431 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in three preseason games. He also ran for 58 yards.

Moton isn't concerned about Ridder's first start against a division rival, and he backed the Falcons.

"Ridder will make his first start, but the Falcons didn't demand a lot of Mariota as a passer in his 13 starts this season. Going into Week 15, Atlanta has the second-fewest pass attempts and the third-most carries. The Falcons try to win games with their fourth-ranked ground attack, and that's not going to change this week.

"Smith will devise a game plan that allows Ridder to play off an effective rushing offense. He'll pick and choose his spots to target wide receivers Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus downfield. Atlanta can keep the score close or outright win this contest with its running game. The New Orleans Saints rank 19th against ground attacks, and they've surrendered 4.5 yards per carry (ranked 20th) this season."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Ivory: Saints

Knox: Falcons

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Falcons

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Saints 21

DraftKings Line: Panthers -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers may not have quarterback Kenny Pickett for this game. He's suffered two concussions over the past two months. The rookie signal-caller didn't miss an outing after his first head injury in Week 6, but his second run through the concussion protocol could cost him a game.

Moton has serious concerns about the Steelers' backup quarterback situation in a matchup with the Carolina Panthers, and he seems impressed with how the NFC South club has rebounded after it fired head coach Matt Rhule.

"After the Panthers dismissed Rhule, they've established a hard-nosed identity under interim head coach Steve Wilks. Since Week 10, they've allowed 15.5 points per contest while averaging 169 rushing yards per game, with D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard splitting the workload. In that same stretch, Carolina has won three out of four outings.

"Meanwhile, the Steelers still need to find their winning formula with Pickett, who may not play Sunday. If he's out, Pittsburgh will turn to Mitch Trubisky or Mason Rudolph. The former has thrown for four touchdowns and five interceptions in six appearances, and the latter hasn't played since last year. Both could struggle against a pass defense that's surrendered 194 or fewer yards in three of its last four contests.

"Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has allowed an increasing number of rushing yards, and that total reached 215 yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week. The Steelers don't match up well with the scrappy Panthers. Foreman and Hubbard carry Carolina to a narrow victory that covers the spread."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Ivory: Steelers

Knox: Panthers

Moton: Panthers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Panthers

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Panthers 20, Steelers 17

DraftKings Line: Cowboys -4

As the biggest favorite last week, the Dallas Cowboys failed to cover a 16.5-point spread at home against the Houston Texans and nearly lost the game. Because of that result, bettors may be wary about the Cowboys as they go against Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who's turned the corner over the past month.

Since Week 9, Lawrence has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Though he's lost a couple of fumbles in that stretch, the second-year quarterback looks sharp in the pocket, completing at least 71.4 percent of his passes in four of his last five games.

As of Wednesday, the public leans slightly toward the upstart Jaguars (53 percent of wagers), but we're going against the masses with our consensus pick, and Davenport explained why.

"The Jaguars looked great in dispatching the Tennessee Titans last week, and the Cowboys nearly laid the egg of the season against the Texans. But the Jaguars have struggled this season with stacking good performances, and the Dallas defense will be amply motivated to show that last week's shaky outing was a fluke.

"The ability of Micah Parsons and Co. to harass Lawrence will play a big part here, with the Cowboys forcing a couple of miscues that pave the way for a seven-point win."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Ivory: Cowboys

Knox: Jaguars

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Jaguars

Consensus: Cowboys -4

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Jaguars 23

DraftKings Line: Chiefs -14

We must always think carefully about double-digit lines, especially when oddsmakers provide a two-plus-touchdown spread.

Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs went up 27-0 on the Denver Broncos but allowed their division rival back into the game with turnovers and poor pass coverage. Keep in mind that the Broncos have scored the fewest points per game this season.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans went on the road and nearly upset the Dallas Cowboys (27-23). Sobleski can see them covering another double-digit spread this week.

"At this point...why not? A two-touchdown spread probably indicates a sucker's bet since the Texans are the NFL's worst team going against a league MVP candidate in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Yet the Texans have found ways to keep games semi-close. Despite losing eight in a row, only two of those games came by more than 14 points.

"Furthermore, Houston is coming off one of its best performances of the season, albeit in another defeat to the Cowboys. No expectation exists of Houston actually being able to upset Kansas City. This choice is based purely on the spread and the Texans doing just enough to make it interesting."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Ivory: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Texans

Consensus: Chiefs -14

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Texans 17

DraftKings Line: Broncos -3

Welcome to a battle between two teams that fell well short of expectations. After a playoff appearance in 2021, the Cardinals won't finish with a winning record. As for the Denver Broncos, they're not a quarterback away from Super Bowl contention, and Russell Wilson suffered a concussion last week.

Last Monday, the Cardinals' season went from bad to worse when Kyler Murray tore his ACL. Backup quarterback Colt McCoy can hold down the fort, but he's thrown for just one touchdown and two interceptions in three games (two starts).

Moton expects both teams to struggle with points, so he took the better defense in a game that may feature McCoy and Brett Rypien under center.

"Murray tore his ACL, and Wilson must pass concussion protocol to suit up for this contest. Whether the Broncos have their starting quarterback or not, bettors should prepare for a low-scoring battle that features the kickers. In that scenario, with a thin point spread, you should always take the better defense.

"Denver's defense ranks fourth in scoring while Arizona allows the most points per game. Cardinals wideouts DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown won't break off big plays against the league's seventh-ranked pass defense with McCoy's limited arm. Broncos win a field-goal battle with a defensive touchdown to seal the victory against a Cardinals team that's turned the ball over twice in each of its last three contests."

Predictions

Davenport: Cardinals

Ivory: Cardinals

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Broncos

Consensus: Broncos -3

Score Prediction: Broncos 19, Cardinals 13

DraftKings Line: Patriots -1

Even in a 27-13 win over the Arizona Cardinals, the New England Patriots offense looked clunky. Quarterback Mac Jones continued to show frustration with offensive play-caller Matt Patricia. The Patriots turned the ball over once and scored a touchdown on two out of four red-zone trips.

The Patriots may have to keep pace with the Las Vegas Raiders' 11th-ranked scoring offense if they're able to get running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams going early. Moreover, tight end Darren Waller and wideout Hunter Renfrow will return to practice after about a month on injured reserve.

Nonetheless, Moton thinks the more disciplined club wins this toss-up contest.

"How can anyone confidently bet on the Raiders? Last week, they lost their fourth 13-plus-point lead in an embarrassing fashion. Up 16-3, the Silver and Black gave up 14 points within three minutes and nine seconds in the fourth quarter thanks to a stagnant offense, costly defensive penalties and poor coverage design on the Los Angeles Rams' go-ahead touchdown.

"The Raiders allow teams that trail to hang around late in games and commit far too many penalties (fourth-most leaguewide) to beat a well-coached Bill Belichick squad. Coming off dominant performances against the Cardinals, edge-rushers Matt Judon and Josh Uche will wreak havoc on Vegas' offensive line and lead New England to victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Ivory: Patriots

Knox: Patriots

Moton: Patriots

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Patriots

Consensus: Patriots -1

Score Prediction: Patriots 26, Raiders 23

DraftKings Line: Chargers -3

Between Weeks 3 and 11, the Tennessee Titans won seven out of eight games, but they're on a three-game skid with uncertainty around their future following the team's decision to fire general manager Jon Robinson last week.

While the Titans seem out of sorts, the Los Angeles Chargers are trending in the right direction with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy after the trio dealt with injuries early in the season.

Last week, in a 23-17 win over the Miami Dolphins, Herbert threw for 367 yards and a touchdown, threading the needle to Allen and Williams, who recorded a combined 18 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. Moton thinks we'll see the Chargers' aerial attack carve up another bottom-tier pass defense.

"Bettors must answer one question before they place a wager on this matchup. Which team will do a better job at exploiting the opponent's glaring weakness? Los Angeles' third-ranked aerial attack could get a bunch of chunk plays against Tennessee's 31st-ranked pass defense.

"On the other hand, running back Derrick Henry, who's second across the league in rushing with 1,199 yards, should have a productive day against the Chargers' 28th-ranked run defense that's tied with the New York Giants' unit for most yards allowed per carry (5.4).

"The Titans' winning formula didn't slow down the Jacksonville Jaguars, though. Last week, Trevor Lawrence threw the ball all over the field against Tennessee, going 30-of-42 passing for 368 yards and three touchdowns.

"Herbert will feast on the Titans secondary as the Chargers' explosive aerial attack headlines another win for the surging AFC West squad."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Ivory: Chargers

Knox: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Titans

Sobleski: Chargers

Consensus: Chargers -3

Score Prediction: Chargers 30, Titans 24

DraftKings Line: Bengals -3.5

Just when you thought the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally figured it out, they took a step backward again.

Since their Week 10 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Munich, Germany, the Buccaneers have alternated wins and losses, but they looked absolutely awful last week in defeat. The San Francisco 49ers throttled them 35-7 with rookie seventh-round quarterback Brock Purdy under center.

Now, the Buccaneers will face arguably the hottest AFC team in the Cincinnati Bengals, who have won five consecutive games.

Most of our crew doesn't see how the Buccaneers and their 28th-ranked scoring offense can cover a 3.5-point spread against the Bengals, who are seventh in points per game. However, Davenport gives Tampa Bay a chance to cover because Cincinnati has lost one of its best defensive playmakers for an indefinite period.

"I'm admittedly not sure if this is an example of Einstein's definition of insanity or just denial about the sorry state of the Buccaneers after San Francisco waxed them last week. The Bengals are smoking hot right now, but the loss of edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson is going to matter defensively.

"This is one of those picks that I regret from the moment I make it, and maybe I'm living in the past. But I think that at home against a banged-up defense, Tom Brady can at least keep the Buccaneers close."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Ivory: Bengals

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

Consensus: Bengals -3.5

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Buccaneers 16

DraftKings Line: Commanders -4.5

Two weeks ago, these NFC East rivals battled to a 20-20 tie.

Coming off a bye week, with three wins in their last four games, the Washington Commanders will look to push the New York Giants further into a downward spiral. The Giants have dropped three of their last four contests by at least eight points, and they've lost all five of their games by seven or more points.

Moton thinks Big Blue goes down in defeat by another sizable margin in terms of point spreads.

"This season, the Giants have relied on running back Saquon Barkley to pump life into their offense. Unfortunately for them, he's rushed for 63 yards or fewer in four consecutive games and played through a neck injury last week. Don't expect him to break out of a funk Sunday night because the Commanders rank ninth against the run, and they've allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns.

"Though wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins has come along in the passing game, recording nine catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks, he also faces a tough test against the Commanders' eighth-ranked pass defense.

"In contrast, the Commanders match up well with the Giants. They can take a page out of the strategy from their Week 10 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner may call for about 50 runs with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson attacking New York's 29th-ranked rush defense that is tied with the Los Angeles Chargers unit for most yards allowed per carry."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Ivory: Commanders

Knox: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Giants

Sobleski: Commanders

Consensus: Commanders -4.5

Score Prediction: Commanders 27, Giants 20

DraftKings Line: Packers -7

Within a 55-hour span, the Los Angeles Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers, and he put together one of the most memorable regular-season comebacks against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Mayfield helped engineer two scoring drives in the fourth quarter and finished 22-of-35 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown in an absolute stunner when you consider his quick turnaround on a short week with a new team.

This week, Mayfield will have a better grasp of the playbook, but Moton thinks the Packers will extinguish the buzz around the Rams signal-caller with a decisive victory.

"Don't let Mayfield's Thursday night magic against the Raiders fool you. Vegas has squandered four 13-plus-point leads, and it has the 29th-ranked pass defense. He's going to face a Green Bay Packers team that's coming off a bye week and allows the fifth-fewest passing yards. Remember, the Rams won't have All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp or fellow starting wideout Allen Robinson II.

"The Packers will do what the Raiders should've done and dominate the Rams from start to finish. Head coach Sean McVay told reporters that All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald is week to week with a high ankle sprain.

"If he's out, running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon could rack up big numbers on the ground while Aaron Rodgers attacks Los Angeles' 21st-ranked pass defense. On the flip side, the Rams won't get enough chunk plays out of its 30th-ranked ground attack to take advantage of the Packers' 30th-ranked run defense.

"Last Thursday, Mayfield had a great finish, but he comes back down to earth against the Packers on Monday night."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Ivory: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Rams

Consensus: Rams +7

Score Prediction: Packers 21, Rams 17

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