Packers' Betting Guide Ahead of 2022 NFL Season

The kickoff of the preseason also means the start to betting season for those who are so inclined to place some wagers.

Betting on preseason games can be a bit dicey given the general unpredictability of which players will get reps, who is sitting out and how aggressively coaches will approach the game.

However, it's a good time to start looking at season-long wagers, and there's value to be found on team-specific prop bets.

The Green Bay Packers are an interesting case. The team again profiles as the favorite to win the NFC North and will have a high win total, but there are questions about the offense after the departure of Davante Adams and a rebuilding of the receiving corps.

Here, we'll take a look at the Packers odds to win the division, season win total and some intriguing prop bets ahead of the new NFL campaign.

Only the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have better odds to win their division than the Packers.

It makes sense. Green Bay has won the NFC North for three consecutive seasons and sealed it by five games last season. The Vikings came the closest to the Packers' 13-4 mark and they didn't even have a winning record at 8-9.

They figure to again be the biggest threat. They return the nucleus that flirted with .500 last season but will now have Kevin O'Connell at the helm instead of Mike Zimmer. The different perspective at the top might unlock an offense that has plenty of skill with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

The Chicago Bears don't figure to be a factor. They traded away Khalil Mack and lost Akiem Hicks in free agency. Roquan Smith has requested to be traded, and new general manager Ryan Poles is trying to rebuild the roster.

The Detroit Lions should be improved in 2022, though. Dan Campbell has a season under his belt as head coach, and they have a great offensive line. But they aren't going to jump from three wins to a division championship.

Unless O'Connell makes a case for Coach of the Year, this is the Packers' division to lose, so this feels like a safe bet even if there isn't a ton of value at the current odds.

After three-straight 13-win campaigns for the Packers, the oddsmakers are calling for a slight downturn in 2022. The over/under line has been set at 11 for them, which is probably a direct reflection of the uncertainty the team has on offense.

Without Davante Adams, and to a lesser extent Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay has a lot to figure out in terms of who is going to be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.

Those concerns are valid but might be a little overblown.

For starters, the Packers still have options at receiver. Allen Lazard returns and has been a consistent deep threat for Rodgers. Randall Cobb is back and has a proven chemistry with the veteran signal-caller. The team drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, with the latter drawing rave reviews from camp.

But even if the receivers take a while to acclimate or don't rise to the occasion, they have one of the best backfields in the league and all the makings of a top-five defense.

The offense might look different, but a bet that head coach Matt LaFleur, reigning NFL MVP Rodgers and A.J. Dillon are going to figure out how to make it work is a smart one.

Expect them to exceed the current number.

Aaron Rodgers Under 4,050.5 Passing Yards

Aaron Rodgers has surpassed this number two seasons in a row. In back-to-back MVP seasons, he threw for 4,299 and 4,115 yards, respectively. So, even with his favorite receiver healthy for the entire season, he only cleared it by 64.5 yards.

The 38-year-old is now going to be without Adams. While there's enough talent in the receiving room for the Packers to continue to win games, it might come with a bit more reliance on the run game.

According to Statmuse, Rodgers has played 11 games without Adams since 2015. In those games, he averaged 30.5 pass attempts. He's averaged around 33 per game over the last two seasons.

The slight decrease in volume may keep him under the total.

AJ Dillon Over 775.5 Rushing Yards

The Packers were 11th in rushing play percentage in 2020, proving that Matt LaFleur is fine with leaning on the run game when appropriate.

That number slipped to 16th in 2021, meaning the coach remained relatively balanced even while Rodgers was putting up MVP numbers.

Reading the tea leaves, the Packers are going to be closer to 11th again in 2022. That means increased volume for their backs, which is good news for AJ Dillon. The powerful back was instrumental in the offense last season with 803 yards on the ground.

Given that success, it's hard to believe his over/under has been set lower than what he accomplished last season on 187 carries.

Aaron Jones is still likely to see the most carries, but he's also going to be called upon as a receiver more often. He already topped all running backs in targets more than 10 yards down the field, per Dwain McFarland of PFF.

That could mean even more Dillon as the traditional between-the-tackles runner and a rushing total he could easily crush.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.