Fresh Predictions for Top Remaining MLB Free Agents

After waiting until a month after the World Series for the winter meetings to get the ball rolling, Major League Baseball's free-agent spending spree has been something of a runaway freight train.

There have already been 30 free agents who signed contracts with an average salary of at least $10 million.

And, no, we're not just talking about the New York Mets, though Steve Cohen's club is responsible for six of those deals.

But a bunch big names remain available, most notably Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson. Where will those dominoes land? How pricy will they be?

Based on a combination of latest rumors and an updated look at team needs, we've offered projected contract figures and landing spots for 13 of the top players left on the market.

Players are presented loosely in descending order of how big the news will be when they sign their contracts.

2022 Stats: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 5.4 bWAR

Carlos Rodón is the crown jewel among pitchers left on the market. He has finished top-six in back-to-back Cy Young votes and led the majors in both strikeout rate and FIP in 2022.

Rodón just turned 30 on Saturday, so it's no surprise he's looking for a seven-year deal, as was reported by the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser. While he probably won't get a deal quite as lucrative as the seven-year, $245 million contract Stephen Strasburg signed with Washington a few years ago, Rodón feasibly could fetch $30 million per year over the course of that seven-year deal for $210 million total.

There has been a lot of Yankees-Rodón scuttlebutt over the past week, and one can never rule out the possibility of the Yankees landing a big fish. But after re-upping with Aaron Judge, would they really invest that much money in yet another player who was a regular in injury reports prior to 2021?

The Giants have also been mentioned often as a candidate to re-sign Rodón, but since that whole Barry Zito mess, they've been reluctant to sign pitchers to deals longer than three years.

It's more likely that this is where the Los Angeles Dodgers finally enter the free-agency conversation.

In Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, the Dodgers had $107 million in 2022 payroll come off the books, and all they've really done thus far is sign Jason Heyward to a minor-league deal. They can and will swing big to bring in a new ace.

Prediction: Seven years, $203 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers

2022 Stats: .291/.366/.467, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 5.4 bWAR

Trea Turner signed an 11-year, $300 million contract in Philadelphia. Xander Bogaerts went to San Diego on an 11-year, $280 million deal.

But if you told us two weeks ago that a shortstop was going to get an 11-year guarantee, the smart money would have been on Carlos Correa. Bogaerts is already 30 and Turner turns 30 in June, but Correa turned 28 in September.

The expectation for Correa heading into the offseason was something in the vicinity of eight years, $250-$260 million, but the deals for Turner and Bogaerts make it feel like Correa is destined for at least a 10-year deal—maybe even 12 years.

The most likely teams that could make that happen are the Giants and Cubs, with the Twins lurking as an option to re-sign their 2022 star.

The Giants went into the winter meetings with Correa atop their list of shortstops, per NBC Sports' Alex Pavlovic. And in the aftermath of missing out on Aaron Judge, the Giants should probably be considered the favorite for Correa.

They've shown they're willing to spend, and here's the chance to lock down a shortstop for a decade. San Francisco is our projected landing spot for Correa.

But the Cubs won't go down in this shortstop arms race without a fight after MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported last week that they were trying to sign both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. If nothing else, Chicago might drive up the cost to San Francisco.

Prediction: 10 years, $295 million with the San Francisco Giants

2022 Stats: .277/.329/447, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 18 SB, 5.7 bWAR, Gold Glove

Dansby Swanson picked one heck of a great time to have the best season of his career, more than doubling his previous best in bWAR in his contract year.

And with both Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts off the board, the growing desperation among teams that wanted to sign one of the top four shortstops available might further drive up Swanson's salary.

MLB.com's Mark Bowman reported on Wednesday evening that the four teams with the most interest in Swanson were the Cubs, Cardinals, Twins and Red Sox.

Most likely, it will be a bidding war between the Cubs and Red Sox.

The former has been involved in basically all of the shortstop rumors this offseason, and the latter is trying to recover from whiffing in its negotiations to re-sign Bogaerts. Though, if Boston brings in an expensive free-agent shortstop before inking Rafael Devers to a long-term deal, those calling for Chaim Bloom's job will just get louder.

It would be fun to see Minnesota pull off what would be one of the biggest contracts in franchise history. It could rival, perhaps even eclipse, the eight-year, $184 million contract the Twins gave Joe Mauer over a decade ago.

But the pick here is Chicago. The Cubs aren't leaving the table without a shortstop.

Prediction: Seven years, $175 million with the Chicago Cubs

2022 Stats: 15-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 bWAR

Chris Bassitt doesn't get the attention he deserves for his impressive recent run.

Per Baseball Reference, Bassitt is one of just 17 pitchers who has been worth at least 9.0 WAR since the beginning of 2020. He received Cy Young votes while with Oakland in both 2020 and 2021. And though the result wasn't what the New York Mets had in mind, Bassitt got the start in the do-or-die Game 3 of their wild-card series against the Padres.

But in a free-agency cycle where Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodón were all available, the soon-to-be 34-year-old righty has flown a bit below the radar.

Still, he's likely headed for a three-year or four-year deal worth over $20 million per season.

A return to the AL West seemed plausible a couple of weeks ago. But after the Rangers landed deGrom and Andrew Heaney while the Angels signed Tyler Anderson to a three-year deal, we can probably take both of those teams out of the running.

Maybe he goes to the NL West instead, as both the Dodgers and Padres figure to be in the market for a starter.

But the best fit could be in Baltimore, if the Orioles are actually serious about wanting to get a top-of-the-rotation starter.

There have been a lot of folks saying the O's should/will make a push for Rodón, but jumping from years of penny-pinching straight into that type of splurge seems unlikely. But getting Bassitt on a less expensive, shorter contract might be in the cards.

Prediction: Four years, $88 million with the Baltimore Orioles

2022 Stats: Did Not Play (Shoulder Injury)

Now that Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo have officially re-upped with their respective New York clubs, has Michael Conforto ascended to the top of the outfield wish list?

Considering he missed all of last season with an injury and had a disappointing campaign in 2021 (.232 AVG, 14 HR), it's hard to imagine Conforto will get an expensive, long-term contract.

But there are a bunch of teams who would be interested in, say, a two-year, $40 million gamble on a left-handed bat that clubbed 88 home runs from 2017-19.

Atlanta is surely interested after spending all of last season trying to find a solution in left field. Tampa Bay would also love to add a left-handed bat with some pop, especially now that it has lost both Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier as free agents. We've also mentioned Minnesota several times already as a suitor for a big name, and maybe this is where the Twins make their splash. They could certainly use the help at corner outfield.

But we're going with Houston, which in the fall was rumored to have extended Conforto a two-year, $30 million deal to try to get him onto the roster in time for the postseason.

The Astros had Yordan Alvarez, Aledmys Díaz and Trey Mancini splitting left-field duties at the end of last season. But Díaz is in Oakland now, Mancini's a free agent and they would prefer to let Alvarez serve as just the DH.

As such, Conforto would be a good fit, if they can find room in the budget after signing José Abreu and after the substantial spike in Alex Bregman's salary (from $12.67 million in 2022 to $30.17 million in 2023).

Prediction: Two years, $40 million with the Houston Astros

2022 Stats: 10-10, 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 bWAR

Noah Syndergaard stayed healthy throughout the 2022 campaign. He only logged 134.2 innings pitched across 25 appearances, but he avoided the IL and even started Game 5 of the World Series.

After missing basically all of 2020 and 2021 following Tommy John surgery, showing durability was the main goal of the one-year, $21 million "prove it" deal he signed with the Angels last November. He should have no problem securing a multiyear contract now.

However, "Thor" was nowhere near the same pitcher he used to be.

From 2015-19, the average velocity on his fastball was 98 mph, as he struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings pitched. He was hovering at 94.5 mph on the fastball in 2022, and his strikeout rate plummeted by more than 30 percent.

He might get a four-year deal for staying healthy, but the 30-year-old might also get paid like a No. 4 starter, since that's what he appears to be at this point.

If they don't get Chris Bassitt, the Baltimore Orioles would be a great fit for a four-year, $56 million type of deal for Syndergaard.

But what if he bets on himself again with a one-year deal, hoping to prove 2022 was just about rebuilding strength and confidence in an arm that still has top-notch stuff?

Maybe that wouldn't decrease Baltimore's interest level, but it would significantly increase intrigue from the Giants, who have done nothing thus far to replace Carlos Rodón in their rotation. While they probably wouldn't want to commit to Syndergaard through 2026, a one-year deal would figure to be right in their wheelhouse.

And if he can make it through another year without any significant injury, Thor could then sign a four-year (perhaps more lucrative) deal next offseason at the still-young age of 31.

Prediction: One year, $21 million with the San Francisco Giants

2022 Stats: 6-3, 3.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.5 bWAR

For his sake, it's a shame Nathan Eovaldi didn't hit free agency last offseason.

He was great in 2021, making 32 starts and finishing fourth in the AL Cy Young vote. Conversely, in 2022, he made two separate trips to the IL and had a difficult time keeping the ball in the yard, allowing 1.73 home runs per nine innings pitched with the Red Sox.

For the third consecutive year, though, the soon-to-be 33-year-old right-hander did a fine job of limiting free passes. In fact, among pitchers who have logged at least 200 innings pitched since the beginning of 2020, only Jacob deGrom (1.48) and Clayton Kershaw (1.53) have a lower walk rate than Eovaldi (1.64).

That factoid alone is sure to generate interest in a two-year or three-year deal worth $15-$18 million per year.

And the most interest figures to come from Boston.

The Red Sox extended Eovaldi the qualifying one-year, $19.65 million offer, but he turned it down in pursuit of a multiyear deal. Rob Bradford of WEEI reported in mid-November that the Red Sox made Eovaldi a multiyear offer.

The fact that he didn't sign elsewhere (or even really get publicly mentioned) during winter meetings probably bodes well for a reunion.

Prediction: Two years, $35 million [with a vesting, innings-based option for a third season] with the Boston Red Sox

2022 Stats: .304/.373/.399, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, 3.2 bWAR

Five years ago, Andrew Benintendi finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year vote thanks in large part to 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. But the outfielder who originally looked like a 30/30 candidate has become much more of a singles hitter who is nowhere near as aggressive on the basepaths.

He's still providing good value, though, and with the possible exception of Michael Conforto, he's pretty clearly the top outfielder left on the market.

The Giants stand out as the most logical external suitor for Benintendi. Even though they'd probably be OK with an outfield nucleus of Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater, they tried to sign Aaron Judge, tried to sign Brandon Nimmo, and they might as well keep working their way down the outfield wish list.

But returning to the Yankees on a multiyear deal might make even more sense.

Yes, they re-signed Judge, but that only takes care of right field. Giancarlo Stanton can only start somewhere other than DH on occasion. Harrison Bader only has one year left before free agency. Aaron Hicks is virtually unplayable. And though Oswaldo Cabrera had an impressive 44-game MLB debut in 2022, is he really the answer?

At least Benintendi has a good glove and can hit for average. Pencil him into left field, place him in front of Judge in the batting order for the next few years and reap the benefits.

Prediction: Five years, $75 million with the New York Yankees

Joey Gallo (LF): Gallo is the biggest wild card in free agency. He won two Gold Gloves for his work primarily in right field in 2020 and 2021 and homered at a 162-game pace of 43 from 2017-21. But he also batted .208 for that half-decade before devolving into a mess at the dish in 2022, batting .160 with a nearly 40 percent whiff rate. Got to think he'll land on a smaller-market team on a one-year deal. Could be Colorado, but we'll say Cincinnati scoops him up with hopes of flipping him for prospects at the trade deadline. Prediction: One year, $9.3 million with the Cincinnati Reds

Sean Manaea (LHP): Manaea had a brutal one-year stay in San Diego, posting a 4.96 ERA. But over the prior six seasons in Oakland, he was a serviceable left-handed starter with a 3.86 ERA. Someone is bound to buy "low" on him, and if I'm wrong about the Giants getting Noah Syndergaard, Manaea returning to the Bay Area would make a lot of sense. San Francisco could even grab both Syndergaard and Manaea and plan to go with a six-man rotation if and when they're healthy. Prediction: Three years, $39 million with the San Francisco Giants

Trey Mancini (1B/OF/DH): The market for first basemen got a little wild, with Anthony Rizzo (two years, $40 million), José Abreu (three years, $58.5 million) and Josh Bell (two years, $33 million) each signing multiyear deals for over $16 million per season. And despite his poor showing in Houston, Mancini shouldn't be far behind that pace. I haven't seen any reports connecting him to Minnesota, but he could be a great fit there, as the Twins neither have an everyday first baseman, nor a solid corner outfield situation. Prediction: Three years, $45 million with the Minnesota Twins

J.D. Martinez (DH): He's strictly a DH at this point in his career, and he has definitely tapered off since shining in 2018 and 2019, but Martinez can still hit at a respectable level. The White Sox, Mariners and Guardians could all use an upgrade at DH, but there's just something about Martinez that screams "St. Louis Cardinals." He isn't chasing 700 career home runs, but he could fill that Albert Pujols-sized void in their lineup. Prediction: Two years, $23 million with the St. Louis Cardinals

Taylor Rogers (LHP): There are a lot of big-name relievers still out there like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, but the most coveted bullpen domino yet to fall is probably Rogers. The lefty closer had a rough 2022 campaign, but he has a 3.37 ERA and 2.72 FIP dating back to the beginning of 2018. The Arizona Diamondbacks desperately need some affordable relief help after Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy were of basically no use in 2022. Prediction: Three years, $30 million with the Arizona Diamondbacks