Predicting Boldest Roster Moves for the 2022 NFL Offseason

While the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals prepare to face off in Super Bowl LVI, the league's other 30 teams are deep in offseason planning mode. 

For some, the first order of business is getting out of salary-cap trouble and figuring out how to bring back impending unrestricted free agents.

For others, all their eggs are carefully stacked in the NFL draft basket as they hope the right rookie can come along and turn their franchise around.

And still others are hoping a splashy trade can put them on the road to success in 2022. 

Whether it's via free agency, trades or the draft, there's plenty of potential for surprising moves this offseason. 

We've made some particularly bold predictions—meaning trade destinations outside the typical chatter (see: Aaron Rodgers to Denver), big-name cuts and draft prospects bucking the conventional wisdom of where they should be selected and shooting up into Round 1.

It's official. After ESPN's Adam Schefter jumped the gun in announcing Tom Brady's retirement, the reigning Super Bowl MVP announced it himself Tuesday. 

The move leaves the Bucs in bad shape. The team has only $7.7 million in cap space and several impending free agents, including defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul, center Ryan Jensen, running backs Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard, tight end O.J. Howard and wideout Chris Godwin. 

In addition to those decisions, Tampa Bay must find a new quarterback since rookie Kyle Trask is the only one signed beyond this season. BetOnline.ag has current San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as the most likely option for the Bucs…but why not Derek Carr? 

After Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, Carr is the best quarterback whose name is frequently mentioned in trade rumors, and it's hard to imagine the Seattle Seahawks or Green Bay Packers trading their respective signal-callers within the conference if they can help it.  

Carr played all 17 games in 2021, throwing for 4,804 yards and 23 touchdowns against 14 picks. 

The Bucs currently own draft pick Nos. 60 and 91 overall, which could be packaged in a trade (however many firsts Wilson and Rodgers command, if they are traded, would likely set the market for Carr).

And with Brady retiring, the Bucs can push most of his salary save for his base pay of $8.9 million onto the 2023 cap, freeing up another $12.3 million to get themselves a new quarterback (and help retain key free agent Godwin). 

What, you ask, will the Raiders do at quarterback if they trade Carr? We address that in our next prediction. 

Sending Derek Carr to the Bucs is crucial to our hypothetical quarterback carousel because it frees the Raiders up to trade for the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo. The move reunites Garoppolo with his former offensive coordinator in New England and new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels. 

After the 49ers lost to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco general manager John Lynch gave Garoppolo a long, heartfelt hug, which many assume means Jimmy G has played his last game in a 49ers uniform. Trey Lance is waiting in the wings to kick off a new era.

Some don't see the marriage working out. "You think Josh wants Jimmy to run his two-minute offense after Sunday?" a league executive said, according to The Athletic's Mike Sando. 

Despite (most likely) ending his career in San Francisco on a low note, Garoppolo is far from damaged goods. While saying he "took" the franchise to a Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Games in the last three years might be a tad overblown, lesser quarterbacks have gotten credit for more. 

As McDaniels looks to install his offense in Las Vegas, Garoppolo may not be a long-term solution. But he could certainly help get things off the ground.

So much of what the Green Bay Packers choose to do with their roster this offseason will depend on whether Aaron Rodgers is returning—we'll address that later. 

When it comes to which free agents to re-sign and which bloated salaries to cut, the Packers need to know if they're standing on the edge of a rebuild or getting the gang back together for one more run. 

Either way, although it would not be an easy decision, it might be time to part ways with outside linebacker Za'Darius Smith. Smith is a fan favorite and a crucial part of the Packers' defensive resurgence, with 13.5 sacks in 2019 after arriving via free agency and 12.5 in 2020. 

However, despite having the second-highest cap hit on the team ($27.7 million), Smith played in only one regular-season game in 2021 before having back surgery. He returned in the playoffs to register a sack and a hit on Jimmy Garoppolo in the Packers' divisional-round loss to the 49ers. 

The Packers are currently $48.5 million over the cap; only the New Orleans Saints are in worse shape. Though there are many options on the table, including restructuring Rodgers' contract if he returns and franchise-tagging wideout Davante Adams, they still have to make big moves to clear space. Releasing Smith alone could clear $15.3 million off the books.

With trade scenarios for Aaron Rodgers dominating the NFL discourse now that the Packers' season has ended, Vegas believes Rodgers is more likely to suit up for another team in 2022. DraftKings provided odds to SB Nation's Justis Mosqueda indicating that Rodgers is more likely to be a Bronco (+200) or a Buccaneer (+250) than a Packer (+300) next season. 

Rodgers himself said on The Pat McAfee Show that "everything is definitely on the table" as he weighs his career options, and he also noted, in a change from last offseason, that he's "in a good place" with the team and general manager Brian Gutekunst. 

If you're a betting person, the odds of Rodgers heading to Denver look pretty good right now. The Broncos just hired Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach, and the organization, which has plenty of cap space and three draft picks in the first two rounds this year, could make an attractive offer.

That's why it would be most surprising for Rodgers to remain in Green Bay.

The team's shocking early exit from the postseason and Rodgers' controversial stance on vaccines, which he spoke about publicly this season, left a bad taste in many fans' mouths. But there's no question that with Rodgers and Adams back, even if they lose other impending free agents, the Packers could make another run, especially as the balance of power in the NFC continues to shift. 

With a new contract and deferred signing bonuses for Rodgers, the Packers could (once again) kick the can down the road and free up around $20 million in cap space this year to re-sign Adams and other free agents, like tight end Robert Tonyan, cornerback Chandon Sullivan and outside linebacker De'Vondre Campbell.

The Pittsburgh Steelers own the 20th overall pick in this year's draft. They're also without a clear starter at quarterback, with Ben Roethlisberger announcing his retirement and Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins not having proved they're up to the task. 

Rather than hope a clear front-runner emerges in training camp, the Steelers could take matters into their own hands and draft hometown hero Kenny Pickett from Pitt. 

Pittsburgh isn't known for wheeling and dealing draft picks, but when it's for the right player, the club has pulled the trigger. In 2019, the Steelers traded the 20th overall pick to the Denver Broncos to move up 10 spots and draft Devin Bush. It was Pittsburgh's first top-10 pick since 2000. 

Pittsburgh may not have to move up that far to snag Pickett, but standing pat at No. 20 would be a risk. B/R NFL scout Nate Tice ranks Pickett as the No. 2 quarterback in this year's class behind Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder. The latter comes in at No. 17 overall on B/R's big board, with Pickett at No. 43. 

But Houston, Carolina, Atlanta, Denver and Washington all pick before the Steelers in this year's draft and also qualify as QB-needy. Even if some of those teams address this via free agency, the Steelers can't count on Pickett being on the board at No. 20. 

The New York Jets, who have two top-10 picks in this year's draft (Nos. 4 and 10), are a prime candidate to make a trade with the Steelers at that No. 10 spot. That leaves Houston, Carolina or Denver to potentially snipe Ridder and Pickett at Nos. 3, 6 and 9, respectively, but we can assume at least one of them will trade for a signal-caller this offseason. 

As we'll establish in our final prediction, there's also another quarterback prospect who could shoot up draft boards as all these teams search for their franchise star.

We've already established that multiple teams picking in the first half of Round 1, including the Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers, need an infusion of young quarterback talent. And though this year's quarterback class is regarded as weaker than past years, not all those teams will be able to solve their QB problems through free agency. 

Quarterback prospect rankings are tricky. It's the one position where teams draft according to need, as opposed to taking the best player available regardless of position. B/R's big board gives only one signal-caller a first-round grade: Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder. But the B/R scouting department's recent mock draft has two quarterbacks, Ridder and Pitt's Kenny Pickett, going in the first round. 

If he can impress at the Senior Bowl, Liberty quarterback Malik Willis could elbow his way into Round 1 as well.

B/R NFL scout Nate Tice gave Willis a 7.1 grade as a potential starter/third-rounder. 

But ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay has been vocal about Willis being his QB1, recently saying on an episode of First Draft that Willis is the "most dynamic athlete in his class." And ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has Willis as the first quarterback coming off the board in his latest mock draft. 

The Senior Bowl this week is Willis' first opportunity to make his status as a first-rounder conventional wisdom rather than a bold prediction.

Salary cap and contract figures via Spotrac.