Waiver Wire Week 4: Fantasy Projections for Top Pickups and Sleeper Targets
Perhaps it's the rookies who are doing unexpectedly well through the first three weeks of the NFL season, or maybe it's the result of coaching changes and new schemes.
Whatever the reason, there has been a surprising number of breakout fantasy stars and sleeper options to target on waivers week after week.
For example, who would have guessed that among running backs over the first three weeks of the season, the Detroit Lions' Jamaal Williams and Chicago Bears' Khalil Herbert would be fifth and sixth in scoring, respectively?
How about the fact that the Baltimore Ravens' Devin Duvernay is sixth among wideouts in touchdowns scored?
There are plenty of gems available on waivers in fantasy, if you know what you're looking for. We'll go into detail and scoring projections on three options for this week. To count as a sleeper, a player must be rostered in 40 percent of leagues or less.
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 4 projection: 4.5 rec, 45.5 yds, 0.3 rec TD, 10.7 pts
Zay Jones isn't necessarily a sleeper, in that the fantasy world paid close attention to what he did in Week 3—which included 10 receptions (on 11 targets), 85 yards and a touchdown, showing a strong connection with young quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
However, if we consider any player who is rostered in less than 40 percent of leagues a sleeper candidate, then Jones fits the bill. As of this writing, he's rostered in just 11 percent of Yahoo leagues.
While Christian Kirk is clearly WR1 in Jacksonville, Jones has established himself as WR2 and a go-to target for Lawrence. Now that he's found the end zone for the first time this season, we can assume more scores will follow.
It's rare to be able to add anyone but a WR3 or RB2 on waivers at this point in the season, and you likely have someone on your bench you could drop for a claim for Jones.
The Jaguars face the Eagles—which are favored by 7—in Week 4, but that could mean they'll be playing from behind, which would provide more opportunities for Jones.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
Week 4 projection: 3 rec, 38.6 yds, 0.3 TDs, 8.5 points
The Green Bay Packers offense has traditionally been a tricky one when it comes to flex players.
On one hand, Aaron Rodgers can light it up like few signal-callers can, and the team marries the passing and running games well; on the other, the veteran quarterback typically has a stable of receivers and tends to pass the ball around.
Well, in 2022, that's not necessarily the case. In fact, when Rodgers connected with rookie wideout Romeo Doubs eight times (on eight targets) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it was the first time he had thrown to a single receiver other than Davante Adams since Week 1 of the 2018 season, when he did so to Randall Cobb (h/t Rob Demovsky via Matt Schneidman).
The 22-year-old impressed in Week 3, and that goes a long way in Rodgers' book. Even though wideouts Sammy Watkins and rookie Christian Watson were injured and didn't play against the Bucs, Doubs has an opportunity to become WR2 in Green Bay. That means a lot more targets (and touchdowns) to come.
The Nevada product is currently rostered in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears
Week 4 projection: 10.9 att, 48 rush yds, 0.3 rush TD, 9.3 pts
Rostered in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues as of Tuesday night, Khalil Herbert isn't exactly a sleeper by our definition, but he's likely to be available in your league...this week. If you don't submit a waiver claim for him ahead of Week 4, someone else will.
The Chicago Bears are still trying to find their organizational identity, but having a balanced attack is critical, no matter the scheme. Herbert appears to be able to give them that.
The 24-year-old may have stepped in for an injured David Montgomery in Week 3, but he made the most of his opportunity, amassing 157 rushing yards on 20 carries and scoring twice in the Bears' 23-20 win over the Texans.
Even if you were handcuffing Herbert and Montgomery, there's value in having them both, given how the Bears use their backfield.
However, with more opportunities, it's not hard to see Herbert forcing the team to give him more snaps if he remains anywhere near this productive.
Projections and rostered percentages via FantasyPros.