Top Offseason Issues for Mets, Braves and Dodgers After Early MLB Playoff Exits

The 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets combined for 313 regular-season wins and nary a game played in the NLCS or World Series.

What sort of decisions and offseason issues lie ahead for those teams as they try to put together a team that they hope is better equipped to survive the randomness of playoff baseball next year?

Atlanta doesn't figure to have a very tumultuous offseason. General Manager and President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos has savvily signed so many guys to long-term deals over the past few years that there are only a couple of significant things even remotely up in the air for that franchise heading into 2023.

Los Angeles and New York, however, each have a ton of key players hitting free agency, which means tough decisions to make and a lot of money to spend.

For each too-early exit from the postseason, we've identified one massive offseason issue to address, as well as at least one other pressing concern with the free agency window fast approaching.

Atlanta is in pretty fantastic shape heading into this offseason.

With the exception of midseason acquisition Jake Odorizzi—who made 10 starts with a 5.24 ERA and who does have a $12.5 million player option for next season—the entire starting rotation returns intact. And of the 14 players who recorded at least 100 plate appearances this season, the only ones hitting free agency are Adam Duvall (no big deal), Robbie Grossman (even less of a big deal) and starting shortstop Dansby Swanson.

By all accounts, Atlanta would love to bring back Swanson. Since the start of 2017, he has played in 789 regular season games for the Braves, which is way more than any other player. And the 28-year-old just had the best season of his career.

Even with Vaughn Grissom sitting right there as the long-term replacement option, letting Swanson walk would be a real bummer for this franchise and its fans.

However, if and when Odorizzi opts in for that $12.5 million, Atlanta is already on the hook for $159.3 million to 15 players for next season, plus whatever one-year amounts Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek get in their arbitration-eligible negotiations. Factor in the team-control, low-cost deals for the likes of Grissom, Kyle Wright, William Contreras and Dylan Lee and they're probably close to $190 million even if they let Swanson walk.

And that's if they bring in nobody in free agency. Start replacing the likes of Kenley Jansen and other bullpen arms and you're talking about a payroll in the low $200 million range.

That's chump change to the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers, but Atlanta's highest Opening Day payroll prior to 2022 was just $131.4 million in 2021. And if they manage to re-sign Swanson, they're going to go from $131.4 million to $177.8 million to somewhere in the vicinity of $225 million in the span of two years, which is quite the aggressive escalation.

Got to give it the ol' college try, though, right? Swanson has been too pivotal to this five-year run of NL East titles to just extend him a one-year qualifying offer before wishing him luck in his new home.

The Kenley Jansen experience was a wild one-year ride for Atlanta.

The former long-time Dodger led the NL with 41 saves, including closing the door on all three of those critical games against the Mets in the final week of the regular season. But Jansen also blew seven saves, racking up a 3.38 ERA.

Do they want to bring the 35-year-old free agent back for another season? And is there room in the budget to make it happen?

If the answer to either question is "no," where does Atlanta turn to protect its 9th-inning leads in 2023?

The obvious choice is Raisel Iglesias. He's entering the second season of a four-year, $58 million contract, so he's certainly making closer money. He also had a 0.34 ERA in 28 appearances after getting traded to Atlanta. But he was a bit of a mess in the 9th inning for the Angels in the first half of the season, blowing three saves and losing three other games in which he was called upon to preserve a tie.

If Iglesias is Plan A, might not hurt to at least have a back-up idea in place.

A.J. Minter (2.06 ERA with five saves and 34 holds this season) can probably serve that purpose. Collin McHugh (2.09 ERA since the beginning of 2021) is also an option. Or maybe they re-sign former closer Luke Jackson, who is hitting free agency after missing this entire season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Braves almost have too many options, but it will be interesting to see which direction they decide to go.

In July 2021, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent two of their top prospects (Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz) and two other minor leaguers (Donovan Casey and Gerardo Carrillo) to the Washington Nationals for two months of Max Scherzer and a year and a half of Trea Turner's services.

They failed to re-sign Scherzer this past offseason, and they could be on the verge of watching Turner also make his way back to the NL East, as our Zach Rymer had the Philadelphia Phillies listed one month ago as the top landing spot for Turner.

The Phillies do have Bryson Stott as a capable, up-and-coming shortstop, but if they decline Jean Segura's $17 million club option ($1 million buyout) for next season, they'll be desperate to add at least one free agent middle infielder, if not two.

But surely the Dodgers can win that bidding war if they want.

Including Turner, they have well over $100 million in 2022 salary hitting free agency. It's really just a question of where they want to spend that money, and for how many years they want to invest in Turner.

It's unlikely this 29-year-old gets one of those 10-year, over $300 million mega contracts that we've seen go to Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager in recent years. However, a repeat of the seven-year, $245 million deals ($35 million per year) that Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg signed in 2019 could be on the table—even though those have turned out to be two of the worst contracts in all of baseball.

Should they fail to re-sign Turner, at least there are other candidates. Carlos Correa has already declined his player option for 2023. Xander Bogaerts is expected to do the same. And we've already mentioned Dansby Swanson as a free agent. But after what figures to be a third consecutive season finishing top 10 in the NL MVP vote, hanging onto Turner should be the preferred course of action.

We've come to think of the Dodgers as this team that simply buys all of its talent, but they actually have arguably the most loaded farm system in the majors right now.

Per MLB.com, seven of the top 77 prospects belong to the Dodgers.

Two of those seven guys (RHP Ryan Pepiot and 3B/OF Miguel Vargas) did have a cup of coffee in the big leagues this season. Three others (RHP Bobby Miller, 2B/OF Michael Busch and RHP Gavin Stone) could be ready to make their MLB debuts by Opening Day.

With so many Dodgers (pitchers in particular) hitting free agency this offseason, there's certainly an opening to turn the page to some of these younger budding stars.

They could legitimately let Clayton Kershaw ($17.3 million in 2022), Tyler Anderson ($8.5 million) and Andrew Heaney ($8.5 million) leave and still win a whole lot of games with a starting rotation of Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and two of the three right-handers listed above—especially if they re-purpose those savings to keep Trea Turner and/or add one more big bat.

Are they willing to go that route, though, when they could take that money (plus the $48 million from David Price and Craig Kimbrel coming off the books) and instead go get a Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodón?

And if they do add one (or more) of those big-name pitchers, do Miller, Pepiot and Stone become trade chips?

Maybe one of them plays the type of role that Keegan Thompson had with the Cubs or Spencer Strider had with the Braves, opening the year as a long reliever before replacing the inevitable struggling/injured veteran after a month or two?

But which rookie gets that gig?

There's a lot of offseason intrigue for this team coming off yet another great regular season that did not end in a World Series title, but how it decides to handle this pipeline surplus might have the biggest ripple effect.

Jacob deGrom has a player option for $30.5 million in 2023. If exercised the Mets will then have a $32.5 million club option for 2024.

Thus, he could stay in Queens on what amounts to a two-year, $63 million deal. Or, he could opt out and try to get a contract on par with (or better than) the three-year, $130 million deal that Max Scherzer signed last November.

It's a foregone conclusion he'll go the latter route, because he has been the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.

Since the beginning of 2018, deGrom has made just 102 starts to Scherzer's 125 and Gerrit Cole's 140, but FanGraphs has deGrom as the leader in pitching WAR over the past half-decade.

Can the Mets afford to pay him, though?

They already have Scherzer making over $43 million in 2023 and Francisco Lindor at over $34 million, while both Starling Marte's salary and Robinson Canó's retained money clock in at over $20 million.

If we assume deGrom signs a three-year, $131 million deal (just to one-up Scherzer), that's a little over $162 million just for five players—only four of whom are actually playing.

And considering three of the other starting pitchers (Carlos Carrasco, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker) and most of the bullpen (Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams and Mychal Givens) is either definitely hitting free agency or has a player option to do so, they have a lot of holes to plug elsewhere.

They went big with a $264.5 million Opening Day payroll in 2022, but re-signing deGrom would basically be a commitment to opening next season at or above $300 million.

Edwin Díaz (62.0 IP), Adam Ottavino (65.2), Seth Lugo (65.0) and Trevor Williams (51.0) led the Mets in relief innings pitched. Trevor May (25.0) and Mychal Givens (19.2) also played key roles in the bullpen, although the former was limited by injury and the latter was a midseason acquisition.

All told, they combined for 288.1 of New York's 560.2 relief innings pitched this season before hitting free agency, leaving the Mets with some serious, 51-percent-of-the-bullpen holes to fill.

Díaz is, of course, the big one. He had a 1.31 ERA and a 17.1 K/9, thriving in the closer role. He was undeniably the most valuable reliever in the majors in 2022. But Ottavino and Lugo were doggone important in their own right with a combined 34 holds and six saves. And while Williams was a mop-up guy as opposed to a high-leverage reliever, his 2.47 ERA in 21 relief appearances was also critical.

The Mets now have more questions than answers in the bullpen with Joely Rodríguez and Drew Smith basically the only known commodities heading into the offseason.

Granted, they got along just fine after needing to replace Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia from last year's bullpen. But at least they still had their closer in place. It's a much bigger deal and a larger undertaking this time around, possibly needing to replace 40 of 41 saves as well as 46 of 76 holds.

And, again, if they re-sign Jacob deGrom, they have to compromise somewhere, right?

Unless you're the Tampa Bay Rays, spending big on a closer is just one of those things you have to do if you want to be taken seriously as a contender.

So, is there a world in which the Mets manage to keep both deGrom and Díaz?

And if so, what are they going to do about pitching in the seventh and eighth innings?

For a team with an astronomical payroll, the Mets didn't put very many balls into orbit.

Yes, Pete Alonso clubbed 40 home runs and Francisco Lindor added 26, but only six Mets finished the season in double digits, one of whom (Brandon Nimmo) is now a free agent.

Presumably having Francisco Álvarez (51 HR in the minors between 2021-22) at catcher to start the season should be a huge help. Still, they need a DH who can actually H, and, ideally, an outfielder with some pop to replace Nimmo. And they need to do it on a budget, given the aforementioned pitching needs.

So...options?

They could go the ultimate budget route and put rookie Brett Baty in left field with Mark Canha taking up permanent residence in center. Baty hit 19 home runs in 89 Double-A games played this season, and added two more during his 11-game stint in the majors before having season-ending thumb surgery.

The other inexpensive option is to bring back Dan Vogelbach on his $1.5 million club option and hope for the best at DH.

But those feel like back-up plans for if they are unable to bring in—or unable to get much production out of—guys like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sanó, who used to be legitimate sluggers, but who might be gettable for relatively cheap after a rough showing in 2022.

Sure, they both strike out a ton, but like deep-pocketed owner Steve Cohen, they swing for the fences.