Projecting the Price Tags for Top MLB Free Agents of 2022-23 Class

The Major League Baseball offseason is approaching, and this time there won't be a work stoppage to disrupt the conducting of business on the free-agent market.

So, let's try to predict the contracts that the top players on the 2022-23 market will ultimately walk away with.

Any exercise such as this invariably involves guesswork, but we tried to make ours as informed as possible by consulting available reporting in some cases, and by considering relevant precedent in all cases.

On another note, we didn't worry ourselves about potential options and opt-outs. Those are bound to happen, but for now we kept things simple by thinking about years and dollars.

We have 15 players to get to, ranked in order of their prospective earning power.

2023 Age: 35

2022 Stats: 22 GS, 126.1 IP, 96 H (10 HR), 137 K, 23 BB, 2.28 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

It's not yet certain that Clayton Kershaw will return for another season. Given that he's already a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, it would be understandable if he didn't.

Nevertheless, his remarks following the Los Angeles Dodgers' defeat in the National League Division Series suggest he's leaning toward coming back:

The three-time Cy Young Award winner and 2014 NL MVP is clearly not what he once was, particularly in the sense that he last made over 30 starts in a season back in 2015. He's nonetheless remained highly effective in pitching to a 160 ERA+ over the last seven years.

If Kershaw could land a one-year, $17 million deal after putting up a 119 ERA+ in 2021, we're thinking he'll be able to do even better this time around. Especially if the Dodgers opt not to make him a qualifying offer again.

Best Guess Projection: 1 year, $20 million

2023 Age: 36

2022 Stats: 157 G, 679 PA, 15 HR, 0 SB, .304 AVG, .378 OBP, .446 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: No

Whoever signs José Abreu this winter, it won't be the only organization he's ever known in his nine years in the major leagues.

As reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Chicago White Sox are prepared to move on from the three-time All-Star and 2020 American League MVP.

Harsh, but understandable. It's arguably past time for the White Sox to open up first base for Andrew Vaughn, and Abreu's red flags aren't easy to ignore. He notably hit half as many home runs in 2022 as he did in 2021, with only four coming in the second half.

All the same, he still hit .304 and posted a 133 OPS+ that jives with his career average of 134. Nelson Cruz money seems to us like a solid baseline for his market, and it wouldn't be surprising if he one-upped the two-year deal that Anthony Rizzo found in March.

Best Guess Projection: 2 years, $34 million

2023 Age: 34

2022 Stats: 30 GS, 181.2 IP, 159 H (19 HR), 167 K, 49 BB, 3.42 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Take a quick look at Chris Bassitt's peripherals on Baseball Savant, and you might come away thinking that he's a mediocre hurler who punched above his weight in 2022.

The catch, of course, is that he's been doing this for several years. He's pitched to a 124 ERA+ across the last five seasons, good for a tie for 10th in the league among hurlers who've logged at least 100 starts.

Bassitt does have quite a few injuries in his past, including Tommy John surgery. Even still, that he's been so successful despite never really flashing great stuff theoretically makes him a better bet than most guys his age.

Hyun Jin Ryu's deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, which he signed after winning the major league ERA title in his age-32 season, could be a potential model for Bassitt in free agency. Even if he has to settle for something shorter, the money could be similarly good.

Best Guess Projection: 3 years, $60 million

2023 Age: 30

2022 Stats: 156 G, 647 PA, 17 HR, 0 SB, .266 AVG, .362 OBP, .422 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: No

Even though he saved some degree of face with some clutch hits in the playoffs, Josh Bell's time with the San Diego Padres hasn't exactly boosted his stock.

That he hit just .192 with three home runs in 53 games down the stretch would have been unfortunate enough even if it wasn't vaguely familiar. He's indeed known for his mercurial hitting, which is evident just from looking at his first- and second-half splits.

Bell nonetheless boasts a well-above-average 120 OPS+ for his career, with his only subpar year coming in the shortened 2020 season. Further, the last two seasons have seen him hit 44 home runs while balancing 146 walks against only 203 strikeouts.

Perhaps none of this precludes the possibility of Bell taking a one-year pillow contract. Yet the best-case scenario—particularly given that he's not eligible for a qualifying offer—is him getting Anthony Rizzo money on a longer deal.

Best Guess Projection: 4 years, $64 million

2023 Age: 31

2022 Stats: 113 G, 487 PA, 22 HR, 4 SB, .243 AVG, .349 OBP, .466 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Among catchers with at least 480 plate appearances, Willson Contreras had the best OPS+ this side of J.T. Realmuto in 2022.

Could that mean he's in for similar money to what Realmuto got from the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021? Probably not. There are two key differences between the backstops, with one being that Contreras is older and the other being that he's not a standout defender.

Still, catchers who can hit aren't to be taken for granted. It's also not like the 2022 season was Contreras' first as a dangerous offensive presence, as he finished under a 100 OPS+ just once in seven seasons with the Chicago Cubs.

A qualifying offer is still another thing that Contreras will have to worry about, but he should be able to find a multiyear pact that pays him near the top of the chart for average annual value among catchers.

Best Guess Projection: 4 years, $80 million

2023 Age: 40

2022 Stats: 28 GS, 175.0 IP, 116 H (12 HR), 185 K, 29 BB, 1.75 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: No

Justin Verlander earned $25 million this year, and he can earn another $25 million in 2023 if he exercises his player option. But why would he do that?

As a 38-year-old (soon to be 39) who was coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander was a major question mark this time last year. Not anymore, to say the least. He's likely to win his third Cy Young Award, and justifiably so given that he posted the lowest full-season ERA by an American League hurler since Pedro Martínez in 2000.

To be sure, some questions still linger. For instance, whether Verlander can avoid even minor injuries like the calf soreness that sidelined him for several weeks this year. And also, whether he can continue to be as dominant in the face of a below-average whiff rate.

Even still, we're thinking the Cooperstown-bound righty has a shot at matching or even breaking Max Scherzer's record-setting average annual value in a multiyear deal.

Best Guess Projection: 2 years, $88 million

2023 Age: 30

2022 Stats: 151 G, 673 PA, 16 HR, 3 SB, .274 AVG, .367 OBP, .433 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Ever notice that Brandon Nimmo is kind of underrated?

His .388 on-base percentage over the last five seasons ranks sixth among hitters who've taken at least 2,000 plate appearances. It's always good to have a guy like that, especially when he also offers occasional power and adequate defense at a premium position.

About the only red flag on Nimmo's track record is health-related. He's missed 256 days to injuries since 2017 for all sorts of ailments, including neck and finger injuries that cost him substantial time in 2019 and 2021. And no, we're not forgetting the chicken incident either.

An inevitable qualifying offer will also hinder Nimmo's negotiating power, but probably not enough to keep him from a lucrative multiyear deal. Starling Marte's deal with the New York Mets is a potential model, and Nimmo might beat it on account of his youth.

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $100 million

2023 Age: 29

2022 Stats: 61 G, 49 GF, 62.0 IP, 34 H (3 HR), 118 K, 18 BB, 1.31 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Where does Edwin Díaz's "Narco" entrance rank among all-time closer entrances? Up there with Mariano Rivera for "Enter Sandman" and Trevor Hoffman for "Hells Bells?" We think so.

As far as opposing hitters are concerned, Díaz coming into a game is less exciting and more just terrifying. He's struck out 40.3 percent of the batters he's faced throughout his career, and this year saw him peak with a rate of 50.2 percent.

Díaz's track record is nonetheless short of spotless. As much as his ups stand out, so do downs like his dismal Big Apple debut from 2019 and his good-not-great performance to the tune of a 117 ERA+ just last season.

ESPN's Jeff Passan has nonetheless floated the possibility of Díaz becoming MLB's first $100 million relief pitcher. It's bound to happen, and it's frankly hard to imagine a better candidate to take the baton from Aroldis Chapman's record-setting deal from 2016.

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $100 million

2023 Age: 30

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 178.0 IP, 131 H (12 HR), 237 K, 52 BB, 2.88 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Carlos Rodón earned the right to opt out of his contract with the San Francisco Giants as soon as he reached 110 innings pitched in July. Whether he would was only a question of him staying healthy.

Sure enough, he did en route to a career-high 178 innings. He was also dominant throughout, finishing with a 2.88 ERA and a league-best rate of 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

The injury issues that Rodón had earlier in his career—culminating with Tommy John surgery in 2019—won't be forgotten this winter. But nor will it be ignored that he's been perhaps the most dominant pitcher on a rate basis over the last two seasons, as his 2.42 FIP leads all hurlers with at least 300 innings.

Save for the fact that he's a year older, Rodón's profile is similar to that of Patrick Corbin after 2018. The contract that the latter signed with the Washington Nationals should thus bode well for the former.

Best Guess Projection: 5 years, $120 million

2023 Age: 35

2022 Stats: 11 GS, 64.1 IP, 40 H (9 HR), 102 K, 8 BB, 3.08 ERA

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

When Jacob deGrom signaled back in March that he would be exercising the opt-out in his contract, he had no way of knowing what would happen next.

Namely, that he would miss the first four months of the season with a bad shoulder and that he would have some hiccups after he returned. Of particular note is his home run rate, which was more than twice as high as it was in 2021.

Still, this is the extent to which we can kid anyone. This is a two-time Cy Young Award winner we're talking about, and one whose fastball and slider remained a weapons-grade combination in 2022. Plus, he might have the best command of any power pitcher ever.

There would seem to be little question that Scherzer's contract with the Mets is the target for deGrom, specifically pertaining to its average annual value. He should be able to beat it, especially if Mets owner Steve Cohen remains true to his commitment to retaining his ace.

Best Guess Projection: 3 years, $135 million

2023 Age: 29

2022 Stats: 162 G, 696 PA, 25 HR, 18 SB, .277 AVG, .329 OBP, .447 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

There will be better shortstops than Dansby Swanson on the offseason market, but don't let that fool you into thinking he's not a good one.

Though Thursday's reveal caused confusion in some cases, Swanson surely deserves to be a finalist for the National League Gold Glove for the work he did at shortstop this season. Far from a one-note player, he also provided power and speed to go with a 115 OPS+.

As far as where Swanson falls short, it really comes down to the question of whether 2022 is a sign of things to come or a mere outlier. To wit: The 5.7 rWAR that he accumulated this year is about equal to what he did across the previous three seasons combined.

It nonetheless bodes well for Swanson that Trevor Story and Javier Báez were similarly saddled with question marks coming off their age-28 seasons last year, yet both still cashed in.

Best Guess Projection: 6 years, $140 million

2023 Age: 30

2022 Stats: 150 G, 631 PA, 15 HR, 8 SB, .307 AVG, .377 OBP, .456 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

Xander Bogaerts still has another three years and $60 million left on his current contract with the Boston Red Sox, but there's little question that opting out is the way to go for him.

Bogaerts has posted a 133 OPS+ on average over the last five seasons, and with remarkable consistency. He's hovered between 128 and 135, making him the only shortstop to go at least as high as the former annually in this stretch.

The knock against Bogaerts typically has to do with his defense, but not right now. He's a finalist for a Gold Glove, and deservedly so based on better-than-usual metrics that include positive marks for defensive runs saved, ultimate zone rating and outs above average.

Relative to Story, Báez and Swanson, Bogaerts' age limits his earning power somewhat. But if Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager were deemed worthy of contracts that will run through their age-37 seasons, Bogaerts should be as well.

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $240 million

2023 Age: 28

2022 Stats: 136 G, 590 PA, 22 HR, 0 SB, .291 AVG, .366 OBP, .467 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: No

The odds of Carlos Correa opting in for another season with the Minnesota Twins always seemed between slim and none. As of Oct. 13, they're officially zero.

In some ways, Correa isn't in as strong a position as the one he was in on last winter's market. He's a year older, and he's not coming off a career-high 7.2 rWAR. That's in part because his defensive metrics took a turn for the worse in 2022.

He nonetheless had a better offensive season, finishing with a 140 OPS+ and 22 home runs. He also doesn't have qualifying offer constraints to worry about this time, which will make him an exception among the other top shortstops on the market.

Correa was reportedly seeking a deal in the $330-350 million range last winter. He didn't get that then, and it's doubtful he'll get it this winter. A nine-figure deal that starts with a three shouldn't be ruled out, though, and he should at least land above Bogaerts on the pay scale.

Best Guess Projection: 9 years, $270 million

2023 Age: 30

2022 Stats: 160 G, 708 PA, 21 HR, 27 SB, .298 AVG, .343 OBP, .466 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

On talent alone, Trea Turner is the best of the four name-brand shortstops who are about to come available.

All he's done over the last four seasons is hit at .311 with 162-game averages of 26 home runs and 35 stolen bases. The latter is ripe for an improvement, as his elite sprint speed and the upcoming increase in the size of the bases are a match made in heaven.

So, what's not to like? Though he won't actually turn 30 until June 30, 2023, his age is one thing. And nobody will accuse him of being an elite defensive shortstop, particularly not after the display he put on in the National League Division Series.

Turner is such a dynamic offensive player, however, that he should still be able to command a Lindor-ian average annual value in his next deal. And maybe in a deal that will end in the same age range as the one that the Mets shortstop is currently serving.

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $272 million

2023 Age: 31

2022 Stats: 157 G, 696 PA, 62 HR, 16 SB, .311 AVG, .425 OBP, .686 SLG

Eligible for Qualifying Offer: Yes

As seasons go, Aaron Judge's 2022 campaign was hero-tier in general and downright god-tier as a walk year. The American League MVP is the least he deserves.

Regarding what kind of contract he should get, that's where there are more questions. His history of injuries is no secret, and the combination of his size (6'7", 282 pounds) and age (31 on April 26, 2023) don't diminish the risk of future injuries.

And yet...62 home runs! And a 211 OPS+! And 10.6 rWAR! And all of it underscored by truly spectacular metrics, including 100th percentile marks for exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. He also just missed with a 99th percentile walk rate.

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Judge is expected to fall somewhere in the $300-400 million range with his next contract. Unless somebody's going to give him a 10-year deal, that would require him to smash Mike Trout's AAV record for position players.

Best Guess Projection: 8 years, $300 million

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.