Stock Up, Stock Down on College Football Playoff Hopefuls

We've made it to the midway point of the college football season. There are still a lot of games left to be played that will shape the College Football Playoff, but we have a good idea of which teams are contenders, and which ones might be.

Before we dive into the second half of the season, we're checking in on both preseason favorites and surprise contenders to see who is still in the playoff race and who has fallen flat. Some have drastically underperformed from their expectations, while others have played as expected through six weeks.

Most of these teams were included in our preseason list of contenders, but there are some new teams. We'll take a look back at what Athlon Sports and College Football News had to say about these teams before the season began, and then see if these teams are still in the playoff hunt heading into Week 7.

What they said in the preseason

Athlon Sports: "The Utes won their first Pac-12 championship last year by pounding Oregon 38-10 in the conference title game and lost by three to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. A repeat of that success—or perhaps even more—is within reach in ’22 for coach Kyle Whittingham’s team."

B/R's Brad Shepard: "This team has the players in place to win out in the Pac-12, and if the Utes can guard against the early-season slumber they experienced this year, they always seem to get better as the season progresses. This is a CFP sleeper for sure."

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What happened?

Utah suffered its first blow to its playoff hopes in the first week of the season against an unranked Florida Gators team. Playing in a hostile environment Week 1 is a tall task, but Utah was still a slight favorite to get a big win on the road.

But the Gators upset Utah 29-26 with help from quarterback Anthony Richardson, who finished with 274 yards of offense and three touchdowns.

Still, the Utes had a Pac-12 title to play for, and one loss isn't enough to keep a team out of the playoff. The Utes rattled off five straight wins following the Florida loss to Southern Utah, San Diego State, Arizona State and Oregon State. They beat those teams pretty handily, too, winning by an average margin of almost 35 points.

But in Week 6, UCLA put Utah's playoff hopes to rest. The game was relatively close, but the Bruins offense scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to put the game away and secure a 42-32 win in Los Angeles.

Utah's defense is giving up 19 points per game, which ranks 30th nationally. Utes quarterback Cameron Rising has been just as productive as he was last season as well, already having thrown for 1,440 yards and 13 touchdowns with three interceptions.

The one piece on offense the Utes seem to be missing is the running game. Starter Tavion Thomas has rushed for just 386 yards and five touchdowns and has just one game eclipsing over 100 yards rushing, against Florida in Week 1.

The Pac-12 title looks like it will come down to USC or UCLA this season. Although Utah had high preseason expectations, head coach Kyle Whittingham might not reach double-digit wins in 2022.

What they said in the preseason

Athlon Sports: "The season opener at Ohio State is a huge test right out of the gate for [head coach Marcus] Freeman’s squad, but if the Fighting Irish lose that game and win the next 11 (not a far-fetched scenario), a trip to the playoff is likely in order."

College Football News: "Now it’s up to Freeman to go from being the hot head coaching prospect everyone likes, to the one who can take Notre Dame that one extra step and turn a College Football Playoff-caliber team into a true national title contender."

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What happened?

Notre Dame won't be going to the playoff in Marcus Freeman's first season in South Bend. In Week 1, Notre Dame lost 21-10 to No. 2 Ohio State. But the Fighting Irish led 10-7 at halftime, and a road loss to one of the top teams in the country wasn't going to keep the Fighting Irish out of the playoff.

But in Week 2, disaster struck for Notre Dame. In ND's home opener against Marshall, the Thundering Herd upset the Irish 26-21. Heading into the game, Notre Dame had a 42-game win streak vs. unranked opponents as a ranked team. It also marked the firs loss to an unranked, non-Power Five team as a Top 10 team since 1996 (Air Force) for Notre Dame.

If the defeat wasn't bad enough, Notre Dame lost starting quarterback Tyler Buchner to a shoulder injury against Marshall. His backup, sophomore Drew Pyne, will likely be ND's quarterback for the rest of the year.

Notre Dame is out of the playoff with two losses. But a ton of credit has to go to Freeman for how this team shifted gears after starting the year 0-2. In Week 3, Notre Dame beat Cal 24-17 at home, overcoming a three-point in the fourth quarter to do so. In Week 4, the Irish went on the road and beat an undefeated North Carolina team 45-32. After failing to score in the first quarter and trailing 7-0, Notre Dame pulled level and then took control with a 24-point second quarter.

Following a bye, Notre Dame played No. 16 BYU in Las Vegas in Week 6. While BYU's loss to Oregon earlier in the season paired with Notre Dame's two losses put a bit of a damper on this matchup in terms of national implications, Notre Dame pulled off a 28-20 upset.

Down eight with 6:07 left, BYU drove down to ND's 27, but the Irish stuffed running back Lopini Katoa on 4th-and-1.

Coming off the bench, quarterback Drew Pyne has played great for the Irish so far. He's thrown for 721 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions. ND has remaining games against Syracuse, Clemson and USC—all three of which are undefeated. Notre Dame won't make the playoff this season, but it could upset one of those teams down the line.

What they said in the preseason

Athlon Sports: "Momentum is high in College Station after coach Jimbo Fisher inked the No. 1 recruiting class for ’22. The next step: Win the West Division and get to the CFB Playoff."

College Football News: "All of the things the program has done to get this point is to position itself as the SEC’s next top dog once Alabama finally takes a step back. But for now, just getting to an SEC Championship and being a part of the College Football Playoff chase would do."

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What happened?

There are a lot of reasons why Texas A&M is out of the playoff halfway through the season already. But the biggest one? App State.

The Mountaineers went into College Station in Week 2 as 18-point underdogs and upset the Aggies 17-14. The score of this game makes it seem close, but App State had 315 total yards to TAMU's 180. App State's defense only let Texas A&M have the ball for under 19 minutes and forced two turnovers.

After the loss, head coach Jimbo Fisher opted to make a change at quarterback, starting Max Johnson over Haynes King in Week 3.

Johnson threw for 140 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions in a 17-9 victory over then-No. 13 Miami at home. The Aggies then came from behind against Arkansas, winning 23-21 in Week 4.

The Aggies could have run the table following the App State loss to have an outside shot at the playoff, but they lost 42-24 to Mississippi State in Week 5. The Aggies were never in the lead and only pulled within 11 points twice after halftime. Johnson suffered a broken hand in the loss, so it was King's job once again.

A close loss to Alabama left A&M at 3-3 midway through the season, which is a far fall for a team that was considered a legitimate playoff contender heading into 2022. Fisher's future in College Station will likely come into question this offseason.

What they said in the preseason

Athlon Sports: "Oklahoma is a program in transition. But there’s also a strong track record of success and talent when it comes to the Sooners."

B/R's Brad Shepard: "Don't feel sorry for Oklahoma. The Sooners have talent, and they've got two brilliant minds running the program in Venables (defense) and Lebby (offense). This wagon train may just keep rolling."

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What happened?

Oklahoma fans are dealing with something they haven't in quite a while—mediocrity under a new head coach. In Bob Stoops' first season in 1999, the Sooners went 7-5 with a loss to Ole Miss in the Independence Bowl. Stoops' successor, Lincoln Riley, led Oklahoma to a 12-2 season and a playoff berth in his first season.

Midway through Brent Venables' first season, Oklahoma is 3-3 with three straight losses to Kansas State, TCU and a 49-0 crushing loss to rival Texas.

The loss to Kansas State was the closest of the three. The Sooners trailed 24-17 at halftime, and it was 27-20 K-State after the third. The Wildcats scored two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but Oklahoma made it 41-34 game in the game's final minute. In Oklahoma's next two losses to TCU and Texas, however, the Sooners trailed at halftime by a combined score of 69-17.

The biggest problem for Oklahoma is on defense. It's a bit surprising, given the stifling units Venables oversaw for several seasons while at Clemson. The Sooners rank 117th—yes, 117th—in total defense, giving up 450 yards per game. Oklahoma is 122nd in rushing defense, 88th in scoring defense and 79th in passing defense.

The Sooners came into the season returning just five starters on defense from last season, so lack of experience is an obvious factor. Oklahoma also lost starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel to a concussion during the TCU loss, and he missed the Texas game.

Venables is a talented coach who should have things figured out over the next couple of seasons. But since Oklahoma fans haven't had much mediocrity with their last two head coaches, it'll be interesting to see just how long Venables gets.

What they said in the preseason

B/R's Brad Shepard: "Now, the Ducks are rebuilding with new coach Dan Lanning, currently Georgia's 35-year-old fiery, competitive defensive coordinator who has never led his own program. Questions abound, sure, but with the way Cristobal has recruited, the cupboard is stocked with elite potential."

College Football News: "The Georgia game to start the season is unfortunate, but win that, and the bar goes from just getting the Pac-12 Championship to owning a spot in the College Football Playoff."

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What happened?

Oregon got clobbered 49-3 by Georgia in Week 1, but the Ducks have rebounded impressively in the weeks since then. Oregon is 5-1 through six weeks, with wins over BYU and conference foes Washington State, Stanford and Arizona.

The Ducks have scored at least 41 points or more in all of them, and the offense ranks in the top 10 in scoring and total offense, averaging 42 points per game.

The biggest reason for Oregon's success on offense? Bo Nix.

Nix, who transferred from Auburn this offseason, has thrown for 1,526 yards and 12 touchdowns with just three interceptions, and he has rushed for 331 yards and eight touchdowns, too.

If Oregon keeps playing like this, there's an obvious case with one loss for them to make it into the playoff. The Ducks will face their toughest test yet this week against No. 11 UCLA at home. The Bruins are undefeated, but the offense sits just behind Oregon in scoring offense with 41.5 points per game. It should be an intriguing quarterback battle between Nix and UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

If the Ducks can get past UCLA, the rest of the schedule is pretty manageable. Oregon's remaining games include Cal, Colorado, Washington, Utah and Oregon State. The Ducks should be favored in all of those games.

If Oregon loses to UCLA this week, that would bounce the Ducks from playoff contention. But if Oregon runs the table and wins the Pac-12 Championship, it might be interesting to see a Ducks-Dawgs rematch in a playoff semifinal.

What was said in the preseason

Athlon Sports: "Jim Harbaugh got Michigan over the hump last season by defeating Ohio State, winning the Big Ten title for the first time since 2004 and earning a trip to the CFB Playoff. However, the Wolverines have some retooling to do in order to reach that level once again this fall."

B/R's Brad Shepard: "With the Ohio State monkey off Big Blue's back, there are a lot of reasons to like the makeup of what's returning. If Harbaugh can dial up the right chemistry again, there's no reason to believe the Wolverines can't be right back in the playoff picture."

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What happened?

Michigan is still undefeated through the first six weeks of the season. The Wolverines defeated Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn pretty handily in the first few weeks. Michigan then opened conference play with a 34-27 win over Maryland, followed by back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Indiana.

Yes, Michigan is undefeated, but the first half of the Wolverines' schedule was pretty light. The true tests for Michigan begin in Week 7, as the Wolverines will face Penn State at home on Saturday. Penn State is also undefeated, and Michigan is just a 7-point favorite on DraftKings.

After Penn State, the Wolverines have a bye followed up with a home game against Michigan State. After Sparty is where Michigan's schedule gets pretty tough. On Nov. 5, Michigan will go on the road to face an improved Rutgers squad, followed by a home game against Nebraska. The Wolverines close the regular season out with a home game against a 5-1 Illinois team, then Ohio State on the road.

It seems like a tough ask for Michigan to go undefeated the rest of the year, especially when Ohio State should be favored in The Game. Not to mention Michigan hasn't defeated OSU in back-to-back seasons since 1999 and 2000 under Lloyd Carr. Even if they get past Ohio State, the Wolverines still likely have to win the Big Ten Championship to make it into the playoff.

Michigan returned nine starters from last year, but Jim Harbaugh went with J.J. McCarthy over Cade McNamara at quarterback for 2022. On the season, McCarthy has thrown for 1,152 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception. That's 166 yards and four touchdowns more than McNamara had through six games last season.

Michigan running back Blake Corum is also on pace to have his biggest season yet. He's averaging 122.5 yards per game and has 11 touchdowns on the season.

For Michigan to make it back to the playoff, getting past Ohio State is the first step. Let's see if Harbaugh can do just that.

These four teams were the overwhelming favorites to make it into the playoff in the preseason. If the season ended in Week 6, those four teams would be in the playoff as undefeated teams. But of course, there are 12 games in a regular season, so there's still a long way to go before their playoff tickets are punched. Let's run through them to see what they've done so far, and which teams might ruin their playoff chances.

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Stock steady: Georgia Bulldogs

The Dawgs survived a scare in Week 5, escaping a road game against Missouri 26-22. But Georgia looked more like the offensive juggernaut we've become used to this season last week, beating Auburn 42-10.

Georgia's defense was what made the Dawgs so good last year. This year, it's Georgia's offense. The unit is averaging 39.5 points per game and ranks fourth in total offense.

Biggest tests remaining: The annual cocktail party in Jacksonville against Florida is always an important one. But after Florida, Georgia has a tough stretch ahead of it. The Dawgs face No. 6 Tennessee at home on Nov. 5, followed by a road trip to No. 16 Mississippi State to face a one-loss Bulldog team.

Georgia then goes on the road to play Kentucky before finishing the season at home against Georgia Tech. Florida, Tennessee and Mississippi State can all score points, so those will be the toughest hurdles.

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Stock steady: Alabama Crimson Tide

Thanks to quarterback Bryce Young suffering a shoulder sprain in Week 5 against Arkansas, the Tide have looked vulnerable. The Aggies nearly knocked off Alabama last week. In Week 7, Alabama faces its toughest test yet, going on the road to face No. 6 undefeated Tennessee.

It's been 15 long years since Tennessee last beat Alabama, but the Vols look primed to break that streak on Saturday. Tennessee's offense, led by quarterback Hendon Hooker, ranks first in total yards, and the team is second in scoring, putting up 46.8 points per game. Alabama is a seven-point favorite on DraftKings.

Even if Bama loses to Tennessee, its SEC Championship and playoff hopes would still be in play. But the Tide still have to get past Mississippi State, undefeated Ole Miss and Auburn before they can punch their ticket to Atlanta. If Alabama plays like it did against Texas A&M and loses a couple games, it could miss the playoff entirely.

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Stock steady: Clemson Tigers

Clemson looks primed to make it back to the ACC Championship and playoff once again after missing out last season. The Tigers have passed some impressive tests so far this season, too. Clemson defeated Wake Forest on the road in double overtime in Week 4. In Week 5, Clemson took care of an undefeated NC State team 30-20.

Clemson's toughest remaining opponents include Florida State, Syracuse and Notre Dame. Even if the Tigers drop one of those games, they will still be fine to make it to the ACC Championship.

Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is a big reason why Clemson has looked so consistent so far this season. He struggled mightily last season, but he's played quite well in 2022. On the season, he's thrown for 1,462 yards and 14 touchdowns with two interceptions. That's a vast improvement from his 9:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year, and Uiagalelei has also rushed for 311 yards and three touchdowns.

Defensively, Clemson has done an outstanding job at stopping the run this year. The Tigers rank second nationally in rush defense, giving up just 63.67 yards on the ground per game.

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Stock Steady: Ohio State

It wouldn't be too surprising if Ohio State finished the regular season unbeaten. With the exception of the 21-10 victory over Notre Dame in Week 1, the Buckeyes have dominated every game this season. The closest margin of victory for OSU came last week against Michigan State—the Buckeyes won 49-20.

Ohio State, led by Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud, ranks second in total offense, first in scoring and is 14th in both passing and rushing offense. Stroud has thrown for 1,737 yards and 24 touchdowns—the most in the nation— so far this season. The Buckeyes run game has also gotten quality production out of backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson, who have combined for 933 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season.

The Buckeyes also rank seventh in total defense and give up 15.7 points per game. Ohio State's offense is so good that it doesn't really need a dominant defense, but the unit has been solid through the first half of the season.

As for the rest of the season, Ohio State should be heavy favorites for each of its remaining games. On Oct. 29, Ohio State will face Penn State on the road. The Buckeyes have beaten the Nittany Lions in five straight seasons. The last test on Ohio State's schedule is against Michigan at home, and The Wolverines haven't beaten Ohio State in Columbus since 2000.

These teams weren't necessarily preseason CFP contenders, but they could break into the playoff after getting off to hot starts.

Tennessee can do so by winning the SEC East. Beating Alabama on Saturday would be a great first step in making a case for the playoff, too.

In the SEC West, Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss team is undefeated. The Rebels' Week 5 victory over then-No. 7 Kentucky vaulted Ole Miss into the Top 10. Still, the Rebels' toughest opponents are still on the schedule.

On Oct. 29, Ole Miss plays at Texas A&M, followed by a home game against Alabama. The Rebels close the season out with a road trip to Arkansas, followed by a home game against Mississippi State. Ole Miss wasn't expected to win the SEC West this year, but beating Alabama and Mississippi State would be huge.

Oklahoma State is undefeated. If the Cowboys go unbeaten and win the Big 12 Championship, it would be tough to argue against them getting in. The same goes for TCU, which is also undefeated in the Big 12.

In the Big Ten, all signs are pointing for the conference title to going to Ohio State or Michigan. But Penn State is still undefeated, and if the Nittany Lions knock off both the Buckeyes and Wolverines, a playoff berth is definitely on the table.

Illinois leads in the Big Ten West, sitting at 5-1. If the Fighting Illini pulls off an upset in the Big Ten title game, a playoff berth wouldn't be out of the question assuming Illinois still has one loss at that point.

In the Pac-12, USC and UCLA look like the best teams in the conference. An undefeated or one-loss Pac-12 champion has a shot, but it might need a two-loss champion in one of the other Power Five conferences to make it in.