BS Meter on Latest NHL Trade Rumors

The approach of Thanksgiving weekend is usually a time when the NHL rumor mill begins grinding a little faster. This year is no exception as several notable players have surfaced in recent trade gossip.

Sometimes a team's struggles can spark media speculation about the possibility of a star getting traded ahead of the March 3 deadline. That's what recently spurred chatter over Erik Karlsson's future with the San Jose Sharks. At times, it can be about whether an impending free agent, such as the St. Louis Blues' Ryan O'Reilly, could get shopped if his club remains out of playoff contention.

It can sometimes be difficult to determine whether these rumors have any legitimacy. That's what we'll attempt to sort out by assessing the latest noteworthy conjecture to determine where they place on our BS meter.

As always, you can weigh in with your thoughts in the comments.

A surplus of forwards has resulted in the Montréal Canadiens becoming a hot spot for trade speculation. On Nov. 3, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported the Canadiens spoke with the Washington Capitals and several other clubs, listing Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Drouin and Mike Hoffman as trade candidates.

Nothing came of the rumored talks with the Capitals, and Dadonov, Drouin and Hoffman remain on the Canadiens roster. The trio has not played well this season, though Hoffman has shown some improvement of late with four goals in his last five games entering Thursday.

Other Canadiens have also been proposed as trade options. Montreal Hockey Now's Marco D'Amico suggested Christian Dvorak on Nov. 5 and Sean Monahan on Nov. 10 as candidates, while his colleague Marc Dumont pitched Josh Anderson's name last Friday.

BS Meter: Not BS

Struggling players such as Dadonov and Drouin, who is sidelined with an upper-body injury, will be difficult to move. However, those with value such as Dvorak, Monahan, Anderson and perhaps Hoffman could garner interest from clubs seeking experienced top-six forwards.

It might take some time to move them. Nevertheless, the rebuilding Canadiens will likely remain open to offers.

After stumbling through October with a record of four wins, four losses and two overtime losses, the Toronto Maple Leafs went 5-1-1 in their first seven games in November. However, they also learned that sidelined defenseman Jake Muzzin will be out until at least late February with a cervical spine injury.

Before that news, there was some speculation proposing the Leafs place Muzzin and his $5.6 million cap hit on long-term injury reserve (LTIR). That would free space to pursue a defenseman. On Monday, The Athletic's Jonas Siegel suggested they have to assume he won't return this season and find a suitable replacement for Muzzin.

When announcing Muzzin's status, Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas told reporters he wouldn't explore the trade market yet. He instead prefers to give younger defensemen such as Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin an opportunity. However, he didn't rule out shopping for help if necessary.

BS Meter: Not BS

The Leafs have since placed Muzzin on LTIR. Losing their best shutdown defenseman could prove costly. However, pursuing a replacement now would force Dubas to clear cap space in February to make room for Muzzin if he gets clearance to return.

Liljegren and Sandin could buy Dubas time until February. If Muzzin is ruled out for the rest of the season, then the Leafs can use the LTIR relief to bolster their blue line.

For the second straight year, the Vancouver Canucks are stumbling through the season's opening weeks . Mired near the bottom of the Western Conference with just five wins in their first 17 games, they're in danger of falling so far behind in the playoff race that they'll be unable to overcome the deficit.

Jim Rutherford, Vancouver's president of hockey operations, has been openly critical of his club's performance. On Nov. 7, the Vancouver Province's Patrick Johnston noted Rutherford told Sportsnet 650 that he wants more accountability from his players. “We'll have to take the necessary steps to try to get the players' attention,” he said.

A big trade would make them take notice. Last Friday, Sportsnet's Rory Boylen observed Bo Horvat and Thatcher Demko have become unexpected early-season trade candidates. He speculated those two key players could be in play if the Canucks continue to slide

BS Meter: Not BS for Horvat, BS for Demko

Horvat is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and could be expensive to re-sign. It's unlikely he'll be shopped this early in the season. However, he could be peddled by the March 3 trade deadline if the Canucks are out of playoff contention and he hasn't signed a new contract by then.

Demko is signed through 2025-26 at a reasonable annual cap hit of $5 million. It would be folly to move their starting goalie because of one difficult season, considering how poorly his teammates are playing in front of him this season, especially on the penalty kill.

After winning their first three games of the season, the St. Louis Blues went on to lose eight straight. On Nov. 8, The Athletic's Jeremy Rutherford examined the options facing general manager Doug Armstrong, which included trading impending free-agent forwards Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Both players carry annual average values of $7.5 million, but Tarasenko carries no-trade protection. On Nov. 10, Rutherford's colleague Pierre LeBrun suggested O'Reilly could be a good fit as the Colorado Avalanche's second-line center.

Rutherford cited sources claiming O'Reilly and Tarasenko would draw plenty of interest if made available in the trade market. However, he felt it was too early in the season for either player to be moved. In the meantime, the Blues have rallied to win four contests in a row heading into Thursday.

BS Meter: Not BS

Whether O'Reilly and Tarasenko get traded depends on where the Blues are in the standings by the March 3 deadline. If they're still in the hunt, Armstrong will likely hang on to the duo for one more playoff run even if they haven't re-signed.

If the Blues are out of contention, however, Armstrong could peddle one or both. Tarasenko could be the most likely candidate considering he requested a trade in May 2021.

A difficult start to the season led to some San Jose Sharks popping up in trade rumors.

On Oct. 27, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported general manager Mike Grier is willing to entertain offers for “pretty much everyone on their roster other than perhaps Tomas Hertl.” While LeBrun believed it could be challenging to move Erik Karlsson, that hasn't kept the 32-year-old defenseman out of media trade chatter.

Unlike his team, which was 6-9-3 entering Thursday, Karlsson is off to a blazing start, leading all blueliners with 10 goals and 24 points in 18 games. On Nov. 1, the Toronto Star's Kevin McGran suggested the veteran looked like he was auditioning for a trade. His colleague, Nick Kypreos, wondered if the Sharks would retain up to half of Karlsson's $11.5 million annual cap hit to facilitate a trade.

On Tuesday, Grier told reporters he would listen if any team made an offer for Karlsson. However, he stressed a lot would depend on the blueliner, who carries a full no-movement clause. He also sang Karlsson's praises as one of the three best offensive defensemen in the league.

BS Meter: It's BS

There's a big difference between entertaining offers for Karlsson and moving him. It doesn't sound like Grier is pressing to trade his top defenseman but is merely stating he's willing to listen if a rival club comes calling with a pitch.

Karlsson's full no-movement clause and the average annual value of his contract are significant stumbling blocks. Retaining half his annual cap hit as Kypreos suggested would cost the Sharks $5.75 million in each season until his contract expires at the end of 2026-27. That's a long time to carry that much dead cap space.

Stats (as of Nov. 16, 2022) via NHL.com and Hockey Reference. Salary info via CapFriendly.