Dear Abbey: Grading Your Vladimir Tarasenko Trade Proposals

Dear Abbey: Grading Your Vladimir Tarasenko Trade Proposals
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1What Would a Trade Package Look Like?
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2It Leaves Them in Limbo
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3Taylor Ham Tarasenko
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4Loyal to the Oil
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5Putting the Isles over the Top
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6Heading North
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Dear Abbey: Grading Your Vladimir Tarasenko Trade Proposals

Aug 7, 2021

Dear Abbey: Grading Your Vladimir Tarasenko Trade Proposals

Welcome to another edition of Dear Abbey. I don't give life advice like the real Dear Abby, but I do answer hockey questions.

We have entered the dog days of the NHL offseason. If it feels like they sneaked up quickly, it's because they did. It's a short offseason this year. The draft was only two weeks ago, and free agency began as recently as July 28. A few teams are still making moves, like the revamped New Jersey Devils and the Edmonton Oilers, but for the most part, this is the slow part of the silly season. It's cottage season in Canada and baseball season in the United States.

But there are two teams that need to make moves and make them soon: the Buffalo Sabres and St. Louis Blues.

The two biggest prizes on the trade market this summer are Sabres center Jack Eichel and Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko. The longer these teams wait to deal their disgruntled stars, the more their values will plummet. Plus, the longer each man is retained by his club, the more he will grow to resent said club. What a mess.

Back in June, we asked readers to submit their best trade proposals for Eichel. Some of you clearly did your homework. Some of you missed a few days of class. That's OK. We've all cut class a time or two.

This time around, we asked for trade proposals for Tarasenko.

What Would a Trade Package Look Like?

Just like last time, we will start by looking at what it might take to trade Tarasenko. I asked an industry source earlier in the summer, shortly after news broke that he was requesting a trade out of St. Louis.

The trade template for Eichel (first-round draft pick, high-end prospect or high-end NHLer, back-end NHL veteran) seemed like a little more than what the Blues might be able to get for Tarasenko. The 29-year-old winger is five years older than Eichel and has had three shoulder surgeries, though Eichel would like to have neck surgery.

Their contracts also differ: Eichel is owed $10 million in each of the next five seasons, while Tarasenko is only under contract for two more campaigns, with a cap hit of $7.5 million in each and a no-trade clause. 

But that was before the Blues failed to find a trade partner. That was before he was left exposed in the expansion draft and the Seattle Kraken passed on him. That was before defensemen became the hot commodity on the offseason market and forwards took a backseat.

All of the teams that were linked to Tarasenko earlier this summer, like the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights, have already made moves to upgrade their rosters and won't be able to fit Tarasenko under the cap.

Where does that leave the Blues?

It Leaves Them in Limbo

A lot of readers didn't leave trade proposals but instead their prediction: The Blues will hang on to Tarasenko until the 2022 NHL trade deadline.

The Blues don't have to trade Tarasenko, but they should. Even general manager Doug Armstrong recently  suggested to reporters that Tarasenko should prepare for the season as if he's going to return to St. Louis. If they don't trade him, he probably won't report to camp. He will get a nice offer from some powerhouse KHL team, and he might be inclined to take it.

According to Spotrac, St. Louis has a little more than $3.5 million in salary-cap space, which is not a lot to work with, so getting him off the books would be ideal. But at this point, they will probably have to retain some salary.

So let's say a package looks like this: a high-round draft pick (1-3) and an established NHL player or a prospect either in the NHL or who is NHL-ready. If no salary is retained, a player on an entry-level contract would make more sense, and it might require another player in the deal.

Keep in mind, this is all just for fun. We don't even know which teams are on Tarasenko's no-trade list.

So let's get started. Class is in session.

Taylor Ham Tarasenko

@notsharangovich

Blues get: Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Boqvist, 2022 third-round pick

New Jersey Devils get: Tarasenko

Look, first of all, great handle. New Jersey forward Yegor Sharangovich is going to be a fun player to watch. He just got a new contract, and he'll be a key player for the Devils next season.

But even with Tarasenko's injuries, this offer isn't enough for a 30-goal scorer. I know Devils fans don't care for Johnsson, a bottom-six role player who probably needed to score like a top-six winger last season.

It surprises me that Boqvist is someone fans want to see elsewhere after they were hyped about him two years ago. The forward spent time on the taxi squad and in the AHL last season, getting into only 28 NHL games. But the smooth-skating center/winger is 22, he's cheap and he's still a good depth piece.

You can't just ship out players you don't like and expect a star in return, though it won't stop fans from trying.

The Devils do make sense for Tarasenko because they need a top-six winger, and no, Johnsson isn't the answer. Maybe Sharangovich is one of them. Defenseman Dougie Hamilton will help Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier make some nifty plays, but they need some wingers to pass to. New Jersey has a ton of cap space ($15.7 million).

But this isn't sufficient. If you switch Pavel Zacha for Johnsson, then maybe it would be enough. But as it is, this won't get it done.

Final grade: C-

Loyal to the Oil

@thedudeyaknow

Blues get: Zack Kassian, Warren Foegele, rights to Kailer Yamamoto

Edmonton Oilers get: Tarasenko

This might be a little much. I'm not sure the Blues would want to take on the salaries of both Kassian and Foegele, but they could if Edmonton were willing to pay Tarasenko the entirety of his salary. Yamamoto is a talented prospect, but he's an undersized forward at just 5'8". The Blue have a lot of big, heavy players, and Yamamoto might not fit in with that style of play.

However, it would be exciting to watch Tarasenko play in the same lineup as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Dude, you're on the right track, but I'm just not sure this is the right mix of players. 

Final grade: B-

Putting the Isles over the Top

@blues7281

  • Blues get: "Jack" Mayfield, 2022 second-round pick or 2022 third-round pick
  • New York Islanders get: Tarasenko, $3.5 million

@bfrey1

  • Blues get: Kieffer Bellows, third-round pick (no year specified), retain $2 million of Tarasenko's salary
  • Islanders get: Tarasenko

@Rustler46

  • Blues get: Josh Bailey, Kieffer Bellows, third-round pick (no year specified), Blues retaining half contract 
  • Islanders get: Tarasenko    

The Islanders were so close to defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup semifinals, but they didn't have nearly the amount of offensive weapons as Tampa Bay. Adding Tarasenko would give them the depth they need to continue contending in the Eastern Conference.

I'm going to assume our buddy @blues7281 meant Scott Mayfield, a defenseman who turned into a star during the postseason. I know the Blues like Mayfield, so maybe he's the one to build a package around. But you lost me at $3.5 million. Is this how much the Blues are retaining, or are they just shipping some fat stacks of cash in a briefcase out to the Island?

Apparently, Isles fans aren't high on Kieffer Bellows. A first-round pick in 2016, he's played mostly in the AHL over the past two seasons. He's a skilled power forward who could still emerge as an NHL regular, but the 23-year-old is not a top-six forward right now. So trading only Bellows and a draft pick won't get a deal done, especially if the Blues are retaining salary.

Adding in Josh Bailey still won't get it done. Mayfield and Bellows plus the draft pick might, though.

Collective grade for Islanders fans: C- 

Heading North

@deanO58

  • Blues get: 2022 first-round draft pick, 2023 fourth-round draft pick, [Nick] Suzuki
  • Montreal Canadiens get: Tarasenko

@sportfan13

  • Blues get: Jonathan Drouin and a third-round pick (no year specified)
  • Canadiens get: Shea Weber on LTIR, Tarasenko

There is a big problem with both of these trades: The Canadiens have almost no cap space.

Nick Suzuki was Montreal's breakout player of the postseason, so I doubt the Habs are looking to give him up, but the center has the size (5'11", 183 lbs), skating and passing ability that would qualify him as a high-end prospect. The Blues would be pretty deep up the middle with Suzuki if they kept him at center, but he's versatile enough to play on the wing as well.

But this makes no sense since he's still on his entry-level contract. Clearing $863,333 of cap space won't get the Habs far enough to get Tarasenko.

Getting Drouin off the books (two years remaining at $5.5 million AAV) will help. And it appears the Habs and Drouin are going to part ways. The reasons he took a leave of absence in April remain confidential, and according to Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin of The Athletic, he intends to play next season.

The third overall pick in the 2013 draft has shown flashes of being a dominant player, but he has yet to become that with the Canadiens. He has question marks attached, so Drouin and a third-round pick alone wouldn't be enough to get Tarasenko, especially if salary is retained.

Long-term injured reserve for captain Shea Weber or even goalie Carey Price might alleviate some cap concerns, but none of these packages are going to work.

Collective grade for Habs fans: D

(Sorry, Montreal. St-Viateur bagels still get an "A" no matter what, if that makes you feel better!)

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