NBA Free Agents Ready for Career Years

Certain NBA free agents are signed knowing they've reached their peak—that the money they're getting is more for what they've already done rather than what they'll do. Even if those apexes are expected to hold firm, the expectation, in many instances, is said player will never provide more bang for their buck than they did on their previous contract.

But that's not always the case.

Other free agents are signed based on potential—on what might be. This usually applies to the 25-and-under club but can cover slightly elder statesmen who have unlocked something within their game. Some free agents are inked as upswing dice rolls—journeymen or fringe-roster guys who just showed something worth a larger monetary and developmental investment.

Every one of these players, no matter how old, are also usually in position to assume bigger roles. Opportunity is often the jet fuel that powers career performances, and it will factor into who gets the nod here.

To make this more of an exclusive clique, anyone chosen must have at least four years of NBA experience under their belts. Predicting that Talen Horton-Tucker (restricted) will improve as a professional junior is the opposite of spicy. Selected players must not have seen their stocks torpedoed by injuries, either. Zach Collins (restricted) will blow his best year out of the water if he's healthy, but he's also missed exactly 50 percent of the Portland Trail Blazers' regular-season games since he was drafted in 2017.

And finally, we're on the prowl for the most notable names who will fall under this umbrella. Defaulting to players who have nowhere to go but up is disingenuous. (Shoutout Frank Ntilikina anyway.)

It turns out a free agent can at once be a gamble and on track for another leap. The risk factor on Lonzo Ball has more to do with his potential cost. Netting him for anything under $20 million annually would be a legitimate shock, and that's a lot to pay someone who has finite utility as an offensive initiator.

Task Lonzo with QB-ing hit-aheads and transition attacks, and you'll be fine. Ask him to go at set defenses more methodically, and things get dicey.

He isn't the most willing downhill attacker and tends to bail out opponents with in-between jumpers or ultra-long layups when he does dribble north-south. Among everyone who finished 200 drives this season, his 37.9 percent clip in those situations ranked 163rd, and the frequency with which he attempted looks at the rim placed in the 18th percentile for his position. The New Orleans Pelicans did not saddle him with substantial pick-and-roll volume, either.

Still, Lonzo is just 23. He has the runway to get better. The Pelicans also weren't set up to give him more half-court responsibility. Zion Williamson absorbed more on-ball reps midstream, and New Orleans' spacing wasn't exactly conducive to Lonzo running through the motions.

Give him more influence over the offense and wider lanes, and he will have a better chance at cooking in the half-court. He has shown he's comfortable going into pull-ups and step-backs and should be more inclined to attack the rim if opponents aren't gathered so tightly around it. 

Even marginal improvement in that area goes a long way. Marginal improvement may need to be the expectation, too. Lonzo isn't guaranteed to get priced out of New Orleans, so he could encounter the same volume and spacing dilemmas.  (But: It'd be fairly bizarre for the Pelicans to pay him $20 million annually and not expand his mode of operation.)

That's fine. Lonzo showed out elsewhere most of the season and doesn't need to author a megaleap. His passing wizardry endures, and he is officially a proven shooter. After getting looped into early-season trade talk, he averaged 15.3 points and 6.0 assists while hitting 39.8 percent of his 8.6 three-point attempts per game. Malik Beasley and Stephen Curry were the only players to match his long-range efficiency and volume over this span.

Whether he stays in New Orleans or ends up elsewhere, Lonzo is primed to ride this upswing to an even more impactful 2021-22.

John Collins turned down a $90 million extension from the Atlanta Hawks before the start of the season. This is to say: John Collins knows what he's doing.

His regular-season display alone coupled with a shallow free-agency pool already ensured he'd get closer to—if not actual—max-contract offers. He saw his playing time decline in a more crowded frontcourt rotation but still averaged 21.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes while downing 61.5 percent of his twos and 39.9 percent of his triples. No other player has ever hit all of those benchmarks in as much playing time.

And yet, Collins' postseason performance is even more impressive. He hasn't always shot the three-ball so well, and his scoring is down, but he's finding ways to impact the game despite an at times awkward role.

Playing next to Clint Capela so much means Collins cannot be the primary screener as often. He has supplemented that responsibility by relocating to the corners in volume—he's converting 56.3 percent of his corner triples—and remaining opportunistic on the offensive glass. The Hawks don't win Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals if he doesn't punish the Milwaukee Bucks' smaller lineups down the stretch by creating second-chance opportunities.

Collins' defense has also been rock solid. He's fared better as a rim protector in the past, but any "decline" there has more to do with his spending more time guarding away from the basket. His highest-volume defensive assignments so far have been Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Julius Randle—three players who can handle the ball and attack like wings.

Sticking with Atlanta—the most likely outcome to his free agency—could leave Collins to exist inside an offensive gray area, particularly if rookie Onyeka Okongwu gets a larger role. That's not a big deal. He'll be more accustomed to it, and the Hawks should be able to let him plumb his floor game a little more often. 

In the event he leaves—which, let's face it, will only happen by sign-and-trade—it'll no doubt be for a team prepared to drum up his offensive volume and pepper in more minutes at center. Either way, based off how hard he's worked to fill gaps during the playoffs, Collins looks set to have the best season of his career.

Choosing someone who will turn 30 next season and is coming off the best year of his career would typically amount to a risk. With Doug McDermott, it feels like a given.

Opportunity fuels his candidacy. He has never averaged more than the 24.5 minutes per game he did this season, in part because of the challenges he presents defensively on the wings, but also because he's never been this damn good.

Consider this a hunch that teams willing to pay him enough to leave the Indiana Pacers would plan to throw him more court time. Also consider this a guess that the Pacers will do the same should they go through the necessary trouble to re-sign him. His return would have luxury-tax implications; they'd be more likely to pay it or need to move off some money to duck it while still paying him market value.

Anyway...McDermott's home doesn't matter too much. He's an eminently scalable offensive player, someone who opens the floor for his team's primary ball-handlers and doesn't cannibalize touches.

Almost 85 percent of his made buckets this season were assisted on, and nearly 82 percent of his attempts came while taking no more than one dribble. His 38.8 percent three-point clip sustains as both a standstill and motion shooter, and he's become a reliable finisher when putting the ball on the deck in open space. His 1.57 points per possession on cuts look like a typo.

Mikal Bridges and Michael Porter Jr. were the only other players to shoot better than 60 percent on twos and 38 percent on threes while burning through as many attempts. McDermott's off-ball motion, outside touch and open-space drives will pique attention around the league—and, regardless of where he signs, earn him the extra run necessary to follow up this season's career year with another one.

Prior to suffering a sprained right ankle near the end of the season, Malik Monk tantalized with a 40-plus three-point clip, an extra layer of shot creation and positional flexibility on defense that belies his 6'3" frame. Turning next season into a career year isn't necessarily about his making stark improvements or changes. It's about his doing more of the same in a bigger role.

All 42 of Monk's appearances came as a reserve this season. (He's started just one game his entire career.) This was also the second successive year in which he missed more than 15 games. (He was suspended in 2019-20 for violating the NBA's anti-drug policy). Though he has limited control over where he lands, as a restricted agent, he's due for a significant raise. And that higher pay grade should guarantee him noticeably more than 20 to 21 minutes per game.

This includes a scenario that keeps him with the Charlotte Hornets. They have LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier under contract for next season, but Devonte' Graham will join Monk in restricted free agency. The Hornets don't seem built to handsomely pay two guards. If they bring back Rozier, it'll probably be in a role that has him subsuming some of Graham's minutes.

Monk might also be assured more playing time by virtue of open-market interest. His initiation bandwidth is limited, but he blends plug-and-play scoring with on-ball skill. While more than 60 percent of his made baskets this year came off assists, he hit a sound 48.2 percent of his looks on drives and banged in 37.2 percent of his off-the-dribble threes.

Teams should also be intrigued by rolling him out at the 3 in pocket-sized combinations. Monk is neither big (6'3") nor long (6'4" wingspan), but he's sturdy enough to tussle with bigger guards and some wings who aren't built like an Adonis. 

Envisioning a personal-best campaign from him isn't especially hard if we presume he's headed for more burn. He soaked up extra minutes between Feb. 1 and his right ankle injury, during which time he averaged 15.2 points and 1.9 assists while splashing in 41.4 percent of his treys. The way he plays can hold up in a larger role. He's shown it. And next year, he should get to show it again.

Cameron Payne's incandescence in the Disney bubble last season didn't protect him against skepticism. Eight games is a teensy-tiny sample size, he was out of the NBA for most of 2019-20, and it still seemed like he—a score-first attacker not known for his table-setting—would be overstretched as the Phoenix Suns' primary backup point guard.

Nearly every concern held entering this year has been roundly debunked. (Note: He did leave Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals with a left ankle injury.) Payne's 8.4 points and 3.6 assists don't seem like much at first glance, but they came on a hyper-efficient 51.5 percent shooting inside the arc and a 44.4 percent clip from behind the rainbow. His methods of attack also injected a nice change of pace into the Suns offense.

Where Chris Paul and even, to some extent, Devin Booker aren't actively looking to reach the basket, Payne offers more downhill electricity. Just 26 percent of his shots came at the rim this season, which ranks in the 41st percentile among his position, but that's more than triple CP3's at-the-hoop share.

There is likewise a different cadence to his drives. He isn't explosive, but he's a touch more abrupt, someone more likely to throw up floaters and longer-range scoop layups, and he won't pull back just to fry bigs on switches. He definitely enjoys hoisting off-the-dribble treys more than CP3 and, as somebody almost a decade younger than 36, moves away from the ball more often.

None of which is the most impressive part of Payne's continued emergence. That honor belongs to his acuity as a floor general.

His 7.2 assists per 36 minutes were a career high and represented a huge uptick over his rate inside the bubble (4.7). The Suns easily won the minutes he played without Booker and Paul, and yes, that's a huuuge deal. He does a nicer job finding shooters in motion when he's coming around screens or navigating the teeth of the defense—his composure as the primary initiator has skyrocketed—and he's developed enviable chemistry with Deandre Ayton during the postseason.

Ah, yes: The postseason. Payne remains just as valuable in the pressure-cooker even if his efficiency hasn't perfectly translated. In Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, he led all players from both teams in points and assists—and, for good measure, blocks.

Gauging Payne's value as a potential starter is tough. He won't be one if he stays in Phoenix. If the Suns find a way to keep him (they own his Early Bird rights), they should be more inclined to nudge up his minutes. CP3 (player option) isn't getting any younger, after all. If Payne leaves, on the other hand, it'll certainly be for a more prominent role—something he has both earned and is capable of handling.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by NBA Math's Adam Fromal.