NCAA Men's Bracket 2021: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship

Two years removed from one of the chalkiest Sweet 16s of all time, this year's men's NCAA tournament has been more like a game of Bracket Whack-a-Mole.

In 2019, all 12 of the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds made it to the second weekend.

This year, we're down to three No. 1s, two No. 2s and just one No. 3 seed (Arkansas). There are four double-digit seeds, the most improbable of which is No. 15 Oral Roberts.

There will be an obnoxious number of articles written about how the coronavirus pandemic and the stuck-in-the-hotel-at-all-times conditions contributed to this year's madness, but it sure has been fun thus far.

Now what, though? We've got our 16, but who becomes the one?

And are you finally ready to take the "Gonzaga or Baylor" portion of the annual "or the field" debate?

Our national championship odds for each of the remaining 16 teams are based on a combination of how good each squad looked through two (or three) games and how difficult its remaining path is.

Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood to win the title. Odds sum to 100 percent and are not intended to reflect actual betting lines in Vegas, which tend to sum to around 135 percent.

The Road Ahead

Oral Roberts has done incredible work just to get to this point, starting the NCAA tournament with a win over a team that had been ranked in the AP Top 10 since the beginning of February. But the road ahead is nothing short of brutal. The Golden Eagles draw a legitimate Final Four-caliber team in Arkansas in the Sweet 16 for the right to likely face Baylor in the Elite Eight. If Houston comes out of the Midwest Region and Gonzaga comes out of the left side of the bracket...it's a lot.

Reason to Buy

Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor can score on anyone. The duo went for 59 against Ohio State and 54 against Florida. They also had 55 earlier this season against Wichita State and 52 against Oklahoma State. Even if no one else on the team gets to double digits—as was the case against both the Buckeyes and the Gators—they've got a chance.

Reason to Sell

It somehow hasn't buried them yet, but this defense is awful, as is the overall rebounding margin. Even with Abmas and Obanor putting up more than 50 combined points, there's always the possibility that it won't matter in the slightest during a game in which Oral Roberts gives up 90.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

They somehow defy the improbable odds for two more weeks. Florida is weaker than any team Oral Roberts is likely to draw from this point forward, and it still needed to erase an 11-point second-half deficit to pull off a second miracle. It should only be a matter of time before some opponent gets ahead and stays ahead. But magic can happen when you have the two best scorers on the floor.

Title Chances: 0.1 percent

The Road Ahead

In NCAA tournament history, 21 No. 12 seeds have reached the Sweet 16. Twenty of those teams drew a No. 1 seed and lost in the regional semifinal. But the lone time a No. 12 faced a No. 8 or No. 9 in the Sweet 16, No. 12 Missouri beat No. 8 UCLA in the 2002 dance. That's pertinent information with No. 8 Loyola-Chicago up next for Oregon State. Get by the Ramblers and the Beavers would likely need to go through Houston and Baylor to reach the national championship game.

Reason to Buy

Oregon State only allowed one opponent to make 10 or more threes against it all season, and its past five foes have shot a combined 25.2 percent from distance. Three-point defense is usually more than a little random—in the exception to the rule, Oregon shot 15-of-23 against the Beavers—but this team has done well along the defensive perimeter all year. Oregon State is also a great free-throw shooting team, as demonstrated in the 32-of-35 effort against Oklahoma State on Sunday night.

Reason to Sell

Even after this five-game winning streak, Oregon State is still just barely a top-50 team on KenPom.com. Its shooting percentages are below the national average, it commits way too many fouls, and until two weeks ago, it only had two wins (vs. USC, at short-handed Oregon) against tournament-caliber opponents all season. It has been a great run thus far, but four more wins are unlikely.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The recent three-point percentages get even better. From the beginning of December through the end of the regular season, Oregon State shot 33.1 percent from distance while allowing 32.4 percent on the other end. Since the beginning of the Pac-12 tournament, though, those numbers have been 42.1 and 25.2, respectively. An even hotter streak with a 50/20 split could result in more magic.

Title Chances: 0.3 percent

The Road Ahead

First up is Alabama, which is a likely loss right off the bat. Then it's either Michigan or Florida State, which should be another L around 65 percent of the time. Survive that weekend and UCLA probably needs to get through Gonzaga and Baylor to win it all. Good luck with that path. That would be even more impressive than when Arizona beat three No. 1 seeds to win it all in 1997.

Reason to Buy

This offense is cooking with gas. Thus far in the tournament, UCLA is shooting well, grabbing offensive rebounds at an impressive clip and rarely committing turnovers. The Bruins don't get heralded as a great offense because of their slow pace of play, but when the double-J brigade of Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. plays as it has been, UCLA can score in bunches.

Reason to Sell

The defense hasn't been a major problem yet in the tournament, but give it time. UCLA's defensive effective field-goal percentage is slightly below the national average, and the Bruins don't force many turnovers. This team scores well, but it probably does not score well enough to make up for all the points it is liable to allow against Alabama or Gonzaga.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Mick Cronin miraculously gets this team to defend as well as some of his Cincinnati teams of yore. Winning six games (let alone seven, as would be the case for the Bruins) in this tournament while playing suspect defense is effectively impossible. But maybe these Bruins could shoot their way to a title.

Title Chances: 0.5 percent

The Road Ahead

KenPom only gives Creighton a 14 percent chance of beating Gonzaga, so that's not a great start. Win that game and the Bluejays would be a coin flip against the USC-Oregon winner, a sizable underdog against Michigan or Alabama in the Final Four and a sizable underdog again against Baylor or Houston in the national championship. This is a solid team, but that's a brutal draw.

Reason to Buy

As far as shooting percentages are concerned, Creighton ranks top-60 in the nation both on offense and on defense for both two-point and three-point shots. The Bluejays also do a fine job avoiding turnovers and don't commit many fouls. That's a lot of key categories in which they are well above the national average, and star guard Marcus Zegarowski is playing his best basketball of the season as of late.

Reason to Sell

Creighton doesn't force many turnovers, it is dreadful from the free-throw line, and by not regularly playing anyone taller than 6'7", it routinely loses the rebounding battle. The edge in shooting percentages is great, but the Bluejays often give it back and then some by struggling in those other areas.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

It shoots at least 49 percent from the field in each remaining game. The Bluejays are 11-0 when hitting that mark with an average margin of 23.4 points in those contests. It might take more like 59 percent to knock off Gonzaga, but Creighton has enough shooting prowess to potentially go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs in a barn-burner.

Title Chances: 0.7 percent

The Road Ahead

Syracuse's first two games were against teams that struggle to defend the perimeter, and the Orange capitalized on that opening to the tune of 29 three-pointers. Up next, though, is a brutal matchup with an outstanding Houston defense. And if they survive that game, they might run into an even stingier defense in Loyola-Chicago. That's just to reach the Final Four.

Reason to Buy

Buddy Boeheim and Co. basically cannot miss. Since the start of the ACC tournament, Syracuse is 51-of-109 from three-point range. That's an average of nearly 13 triples per game, which is "Villanova during its national championship runs" territory. And that 2-3 zone flummoxes opponents on a regular basis.

Reason to Sell

Syracuse hasn't gotten destroyed on the glass yet in the tournament, but it does happen on a fairly regular basis. In particular, Houston is a team equipped to crush any defense that struggles to prevent second-chance opportunities. The 2-3 zone also invites a lot of three-point attempts. If Syracuse was to run into Baylor in the Final Four, the Bears could win by 30 on account of their prowess both on the offensive glass and behind the arc.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Buddy Boeheim keeps channeling his inner Buddy Hield. After shooting just 29.5 percent from three-point range through the first 13 games of the season, Boeheim is sitting at 49.5 percent since Feb. 8, averaging 4.4 makes and 22.5 points per game. Syracuse could always have a dud on defense during one of his great games, but this team has championship potential if he remains hotter than the sun.

Title Chances: 1.0 percent

The Road Ahead

After knocking off No. 2 Iowa, Oregon will draw its conference rival, USC, in the Sweet 16. The Ducks lost 72-58 in their only regular-season meeting with the Trojans, and that was a 17-1 blowout after about six minutes. They might want to get out to a better start this time. The reward for beating USC is a likely showdown with Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Just getting to the Final Four will be a stiff challenge here.

Reason to Buy

Oregon's five-wings approach on offense is beyond difficult to defend. The Ducks don't have a true point guard. After losing N'Faly Dante just six games into the season, they don't have a true center, either. But what they do have is a starting lineup in which everyone can shoot, pass, rebound and defend to a respectable degree.

Reason to Sell

Without conventional big men, Oregon can be beaten inside. Luka Garza got anything he wanted Monday. In the February loss to USC, the Trojans dominated on the glass, and it was a similar story in the early-January loss to Colorado. In the final two games of the regular season, UCLA and Oregon State shot a combined 49-of-75 (65.3 percent) on twos against Oregon. If the Ducks run into Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, we wish them luck against the most lethal two-point offense in at least two decades.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The offense simply outpaces the defensive lapses. Oregon has allowed at least 73 points in four of its last five games, but it also averaged 87 points on offense in the four wins during that stretch. The Ducks need to avoid one of their occasional duds on offense, though, like the 58 points in the loss to USC or the 75-64 loss to Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament.

Title Chances: 1.25 percent

The Road Ahead

First up for USC is the rematch with Oregon. They only met once during the regular season, and the Trojans won by 14, so that's promising. The winner likely draws Gonzaga next, which is much less promising. However, it's not hard to envision USC's frontcourt causing problems for the favorites to win it all.

Reason to Buy

If defending in the paint is the key to stopping Gonzaga, USC just might win that projected Elite Eight showdown with its nation-best two-point defense. Evan Mobley's shot-blocking range is at the heart of that defense, but it's hard to score anywhere inside the arc against a team that starts four guys 6'7" or taller. That size also makes USC strong on the offensive glass.

Reason to Sell

USC was red-hot this past weekend, but it backed into the NCAA tournament. The Trojans went 4-4 in their last eight games with one of the wins coming in double overtime against Utah and another on a last-second miracle shot against UCLA. It was primarily poor luck with three-point defense that buried USC during that late-season stretch. (Colorado shot a combined 24-of-46 in two games against the Trojans.) If and when that flares up again, they're in trouble. USC is also terrible at the free-throw line (64.3 percent).

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Opponents continue shooting 27.1 percent from three-point range. The Trojans don't need to be quite that stingy from the perimeter. They're actually 16-0 when opponents shoot 36 percent or worse from downtown. However, there were 15 other games in which their opponent did shoot well, and that led to seven losses and overtime wins over UC Riverside and Cal Baptist. Banking on three-point defense is always rough, but such is life for USC.

Title Chances: 1.75 percent

The Road Ahead

Villanova looked great against a pair of mid-majors, but it's time to start playing the game on a much harder difficulty level in a Sweet 16 showdown with Baylor. The Wildcats have done well to avoid turnovers thus far during life after Collin Gillespie, but Baylor's swarming defense is going to put them to the test and then some. If they happen to survive the Bears, they would likely then need to get through Arkansas and Houston just to reach the title game. For a team from the super-broken half of the bracket, that's a brutal remaining draw.

Reason to Buy

The three-point shooting disappeared for a few weeks, but it was back with a vengeance (15-of-30) in that 23-point win over North Texas in the second round. Dating back to the beginning of December 2012, Villanova is 184-16 when shooting better than 32 percent from three-point range, and it is 98-2 during the last 100 games in which it shot at least 40 percent from downtown. If the shots keep falling, Villanova can keep winning.

Reason to Sell

Villanova's defense is nowhere near what it used to be. From 2014-18, the Wildcats finished five consecutive seasons ranked in the top 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency. This year, they've been hovering down in the No. 65-75 range and just allowed North Texas to score on 10 of its first 11 possessions. They eventually shut down the overmatched Mean Green, but a top-notch offense (see: Baylor, Arkansas or Gonzaga) is likely to be a major problem.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The three-point fire becomes an eternal flame. In both 2016 and 2018, Villanova had a good enough all-around game to withstand an off shooting night in the Elite Eight. This year's team probably cannot do that. But the Wildcats are plenty capable of draining a dozen triples against any opponent. If they can do that for four straight games, they'll at least have a chance.

Title Chances: 2.0 percent

The Road Ahead

While Michigan isn't quite as formidable without Isaiah Livers, the Wolverines are more than good enough to be the deserved favorite in the Sweet 16 matchup with Florida State. If the Seminoles get through that game, they'll probably run into Alabama's outstanding defense and three-point attack. Florida State can be a great team when it wants to be, but its path to a championship is going to be brutal.

Reason to Buy

Much like USC, Florida State's size is a huge advantage. The Seminoles rank top-20 in offensive rebounding, block percentage and two-point field-goal defense. In each of their first two games (UNC Greensboro and Colorado), the 'Noles made better than 62 percent of their two-point attempts and held their opponent below 55 points. It's pretty hard to lose while getting that combination.

Reason to Sell

Also much like USC, Florida State backed into the dance. The Seminoles lost three of their final five games, struggling to get stops on defense and avoid turnovers on offense. This team has been painfully inconsistent throughout the season. While they looked great this past weekend, we might see a completely different and worse version of the Seminoles in the Sweet 16.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

"Good Florida State" shows up with more regularity. The Seminoles had a few impressive spurts of offense against UNC Greensboro and Colorado, but they didn't have anywhere near their usual edge in threes and rebounds. If this team plays more complete games the rest of the way, it has the size, depth and talent to beat anyone.

Title Chances: 3.0 percent

The Road Ahead

After knocking out Illinois, it almost feels like smooth sailing for Loyola-Chicago next weekend. The Ramblers will draw No. 12 seed Oregon State on Saturday before facing the winner of Houston-Syracuse two days later. Houston would obviously be a challenge, but the Cougars would be more than content to join Loyola in a slow-paced defensive war either side could win. If Baylor and Gonzaga both get to the Final Four, though, the Ramblers would be significant underdogs in the tournament's final weekend.

Reason to Buy

This isn't your average No. 8 seed. Loyola-Chicago has the stingiest defense in the country, holding each of its last 20 opponents to 65 points or fewer. And if you thought it was just a Missouri Valley Conference problem, the list of teams shut down by the Ramblers now includes the ACC tournament champion and the Big Ten tournament champion. This team is also lethal in the paint because of Cameron Krutwig's prowess initiating offense near the free-throw line.

Reason to Sell

The defense is great, but it's mostly predicated on limiting fouls and second chances. Loyola's offense doesn't offer much of a cushion if an opponent has a hot shooting night, either. The Ramblers are 0-3 this season when allowing 67 or more points. And best of luck holding Baylor or Gonzaga below 67.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Defense wins championships this year. Similar to Virginia in recent seasons, this team could defend its way to a title. It's that good on defense. The big question is whether the Ramblers can withstand the inevitable night when an opponent refuses to miss from the perimeter.

Title Chances: 3.9 percent

The Road Ahead

By the time we get to the Sweet 16, seeding really doesn't matter anymore. But facing a No. 15 seed at this stage of the tournament is still a nice perk. Arkansas also already has experience with that Oral Roberts offense, beating the Golden Eagles 87-76 shortly before Christmas. After that, though, it'll be a tough battle with a team that can absolutely stroke it from three-point range, be that Baylor or Villanova.

Reason to Buy

Arkansas does not have any clear weakness, and it has three potential tournament stars in Moses Moody, Justin Smith and JD Notae. Making a deep run is all about avoiding potholes, if you will, and leaning on your biggest stars. Notae struggled in that second-round game against Texas Tech, but Moody and Smith were awesome. When all three show up, Arkansas can beat anyone.

Reason to Sell

Limited depth has become a bit of a concern with both Connor Vanover and Vance Jackson Jr. basically vanishing from the rotation, but the Hogs still have a strong seven-man group without those big men. The bigger concern is that even their best shooters aren't all that accurate. Moody is the best three-point shooter on the roster, and he's only 7-of-23 since the start of the SEC tournament. If the Razorbacks get into a three-point duel with Oral Roberts, Villanova or Baylor, they're probably going to lose that battle.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Speed remains their ally. Arkansas didn't start pushing the tempo against Colgate until midway through the first half, and it never got much of a chance to get out and run against Texas Tech's defense. In a free-flowing game, you have to like its chances against anyone. In a stop-and-start half-court slog, though, the Hogs lose their edge.

Title Chances: 4.0 percent

The Road Ahead

Michigan survived a great game against LSU, but things don't get any easier from here. The Wolverines will face a lengthy Florida State in the Sweet 16 to likely draw an Alabama team that caught fire in its second-round win over Maryland. Those are two very different opponents, but both are capable of beating Michigan.

Reason to Buy

Michigan is a top-10 team on both ends of the floor. That didn't help Illinois in its loss to Loyola-Chicago, but this is a well-rounded squad that plays exquisite two-point defense and shoots at a high level. The Wolverines are undefeated when scoring more than 67 points, and they topped 80 in their first two games of the tournament.

Reason to Sell

As great as the defense is, Michigan doesn't force turnovers. LSU shot 28.6 percent from three-point range and 39.1 percent from the field and still put up 78 points by only committing three turnovers. The Wolverines had a similar close call in a home game against Rutgers and twice had trouble getting defensive stops against Ohio State. Also, though things went fine in the first weekend of the tournament, Michigan's ceiling isn't as high with Isaiah Livers out.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Hunter Dickinson and Co. own the paint. In addition to being unbeaten when scoring at least 67 points, Michigan is unblemished in 19 games when holding opponents below 42 percent from the field. That starts in the paint with Dickinson, and it depends on him avoiding foul trouble moving forward. Michigan could survive stretches without its freshman center when Livers was on the floor, but it'll be in some trouble if and when Dickinson battles early whistles against a Final Four-caliber foe.

Title Chances: 7.0 percent

The Road Ahead

Alabama will face UCLA's usually mediocre defense in the Sweet 16 to draw the winner of Michigan vs. Florida State. The Wolverines will likely be favored by a point or two if it's No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the East Region, but we're giving Alabama the slightly better title chances because it is more likely to avoid a loss in the Sweet 16. It also doesn't hurt that Alabama is at full strength while Michigan is lacking one of its best players.

Reason to Buy

The defense had a bit of an off night in the second round against Maryland, but this is usually one of the most efficient units in the country. Alabama does a fantastic job defending the perimeter, and then it can absolutely bury you from deep on the other end. In 32 games this season, Alabama has made 146 more three-pointers than it has allowed.

Reason to Sell

When those triples are falling, Alabama looks unbeatable. (See: 96-77 win over Maryland.) But things can get dicey in a hurry when they aren't falling. (See: 42-40 deficit 28 minutes into the game against Iona.) Alabama's overall shooting percentages are marginally better than the national average, as is its turnover rate on offense. The defense can usually carry them through, but scoring droughts are somewhat common for the Tide.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

They stay hot from distance. That 16-of-33 performance against Maryland might seem a bit excessive for most teams, but it was Alabama's 13th game with at least 12 made three-pointers. And the Crimson Tide proved back in January they can keep that fire going for a while, at one point making at least 14 threes in four consecutive games. With this defense, there's almost no chance of beating Alabama when it's hitting those long-range buckets.

Title Chances: 7.5 percent

The Road Ahead

Through no fault of its own, Houston has fallen into the easiest remaining path to the Final Four. The Cougars will draw No. 11 Syracuse for the right to face the winner of No. 8 Loyola-Chicago vs. No. 12 Oregon State. Even accounting for the fact that Loyola-Chicago is a top-10 team on KenPom and nowhere near your average No. 8 seed, that's quite the favorable draw. If Oregon State upsets the Ramblers, it would be pretty wild if Houston got to go through 15-10-11-12 to reach the national semifinals.

Reason to Buy

Loyola-Chicago is top-10 on KenPom, but Houston is all the way up to No. 3. The Cougars defense is so, so tough to score against (opponents have averaged 57.9 points during Houston's nine-game winning streak), and this team is relentless on the offensive glass. Houston really should not have won that game against Rutgers on Sunday, but the 14 offensive rebounds and lockdown defense enabled it to complete the comeback.

Reason to Sell

This team does not shoot well. Houston has had a field-goal percentage of 39.0 or worse in four of its last 14 games, and that's going to be a major problem if it flares up against an opponent better than SMU, Memphis or Rutgers.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The threes are falling. Houston is 20-1 this season when shooting better than 31.0 percent from beyond the arc, so we aren't asking for much. But the Cougars take 41.8 percent of their shots from downtown, so it's a critical success rate to monitor. Those triples probably really need to be going down if the Cougars run into Gonzaga in the national championship, but this team is at least capable of knocking off Baylor on a decent shooting night.

Title Chances: 8.0 percent

The Road Ahead

Forgive me for not remembering which commentator said this during the Baylor-Wisconsin game, but there was a remark that who Baylor plays is less important than how well Baylor plays together, and that's so true. Villanova and Arkansas could give the Bears fits next weekend, or Peak Baylor could show up and just bury those well-rounded-but-not-elite teams.

Reason to Buy

Best three-point shooting team in the country. One of the best turnover-forcing teams in the country. One of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country. Take your pick. Oh, and the depth, too. Baylor has five three-point snipers and three great offensive rebounders. Six of those eight guys are major assets on the defensive end of the floor, too.

Reason to Sell

Beyond their three major strengths, Baylor is either just OK or not very good in a lot of categories. Defensive rebounding, free-throw shooting (both getting there and converting from there) and three-point defense are legitimate concerns for a team that is expected to reach the national championship.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

They keep defending like they did this past weekend. Heading into the tournament, eight consecutive opponents had averaged at least one point per possession against Baylor's defense. But the Bears shut down Hartford completely and never had much of a problem with Wisconsin's offense. If they continue to hold opponents below one point per possession and at least come close to that mark against Gonzaga in the projected national championship, the Bears can do this thing.

Title Chances: 24 percent

The Road Ahead

As if Gonzaga needed any help getting to the Final Four, the Nos. 2-4 teams in its region have all bit the dust, leaving a Sweet 16 matchup with No. 5 Creighton and an Elite Eight game against either USC or Oregon. Gonzaga will be heavily favored in both games and will be expected to handle Michigan or Alabama in the Final Four, too.

Reason to Buy

As far as KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin is concerned, this is merely the best men's college basketball team in at least two decades. Gonzaga's mark in that category (37.04) is now slightly ahead of 2014-15 Kentucky (36.91) and light-years ahead of this season's second-best team (Baylor is at 29.73). Gonzaga's combination of pace and efficiency is unfair and has resulted in a scoring margin of 23.4 points per game.

Reason to Sell

Aside from the "Anything can happen in this tournament" axiom, one cause for concern is Gonzaga's slow starts on defense. Oklahoma jumped out to an early 18-12 lead on Monday. Santa Clara led 19-9 after nine minutes in late February. And who can forget BYU's 45-34 lead 15 minutes into the WCC championship? Let a team like Alabama or Baylor get that hot right away and it might not cool off.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The best team is destined to win this tournament. Gonzaga should be favored by at least six points in every remaining game, and it has won 27 of its 28 games by double digits. Of course, UNLV was in a similar boat during the 1990-91 season before losing to Duke in the Final Four. If Gonzaga's offense continues to do what it has done all season long, though, it should win it all.

Title Chances: 35 percent