Saints' Keys to Win vs. Buccaneers in 2021 NFL Playoff Matchup
The New Orleans Saints will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third meeting of divisional rivals in the NFL postseason.
New Orleans controlled the regular-season series with its NFC South rival. The second victory in Week 9 produced the much more dominant performance than Week 1.
The Saints' rushing defense starred in both contests, and for them to land a berth in the NFC Championship Game, the front seven needs to take Leonard Fournette out of the game and put pressure on Tom Brady.
Sean Payton's squad also owned the turnover battle in each matchup with the Buccaneers. If the Saints sustain pressure on the Tampa Bay backfield, they could do the same on Sunday night.
As for the offense, it needs to continue doing what it did in the wild-card round to outpace Tampa Bay just in case the game turns into a high-scoring affair.
Stifle the Tampa Bay Run Game
New Orleans only allowed five opponents to run for over 100 yards this season.
In the two meetings with Tampa Bay, the Saints limited their NFC South rival to 94 yards on the ground. The Bucs managed just eight rushing yards in Week 9.
In addition to containing Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II, the Saints sacked Tom Brady on three occasions in each contest.
Tampa Bay has taken some pressure off Brady in the last few weeks by developing an effective rushing attack. The Bucs ran for over 100 yards in three of the last five games. They had a single triple-digit ground outing in a six-game stretch before that.
In the wild-card win over the Bears, the Saints proved they could shut down a previously dominant run game, as they held David Montgomery to 31 yards on 12 carries. Montgomery entered the postseason with a five-game scoring streak and at least 70 yards in four of five contests.
Sunday's performance was even more impressive since it was achieved without Trey Hendrickson, who led the Saints in sacks and tackles for loss.
Even if New Orleans misses Hendrickson again, it should be able to get a push into backfield through Jordan and others.
If the Saints stifle Tampa Bay's ground game, it could force the visitors into long-yardage situations in which the hosts can thrive off of through blitzes and coverages that contain Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.
Win the Turnover Battle
One of the easiest keys to winning is the turnover battle. It is an adage that is used frequently, but it rings true for the Saints-Bucs showdown.
New Orleans forced six turnovers in Weeks 1 and 9, while Tampa Bay managed to earn a pair of turnovers, both of which occurred in the second meeting.
In Week 1, the Saints turned both of Brady's interceptions into points. Alvin Kamara ran for a touchdown four plays after the veteran quarterback's first interception. Janoris Jenkins returned the other pick for a score.
The third turnover forced by New Orleans was a fumble on a punt return that was cashed in with a Wil Lutz field goal.
In Week 9, the Saints displayed the same effectiveness is turning points into turnovers. Two of Brady's three interceptions resulted in touchdowns on the ensuing drive. The other pick occurred right before halftime.
If the Saints apply the same pressure to Brady and play tight coverage on his top wide receivers, they should have a chance to create a few turnovers on Sunday.
If Drew Brees and Co. turn any giveaways into end zone trips again, the offense should be able to open up a gap on the scoreboard.
Use a Heavy Dose of Michael Thomas
New Orleans' postseason success in the last four years can be tied to the performance of Michael Thomas.
Both of the wide receiver's 100-yard playoff performances occurred in victories, and he brought in five catches for 73 yards and a score versus Chicago.
In the Saints' last two playoff losses, Thomas was held to 70 yards or fewer and was kept out of the end zone by the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings.
Thomas typically performs well against Tampa Bay. He owns three 100-yard games in his last six appearances against the Bucs. Last season, he recorded 296 receiving yards and three scores in a pair of wins over Tampa Bay.
When he has been healthy this season, the 27-year-old has been targeted at a high volume. Both of his 100-yard outings came off nine-catch performances.
If Thomas gains the advantage against Tampa Bay's secondary, Brees can call on him multiple times in each drive to pick up long gains and first downs.
Thomas can also be more effective in the red zone. The scoring catch in the Wild Card Round was his first touchdown of the season.
If the Saints use him in a more effective manner inside the red zone, they could strike the Tampa Bay defense from all angles, including rushes from Kamara and Taysom Hill, and score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.
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Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference