NCAA Men's Tournament 2021: Ranking Top Seeds Most Likely to Fall in Sweet 16

March is here, and it's madder than ever.

With No. 1 seed Illinois falling in the round of 32 on Sunday and four double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, chaos reigns supreme after an unusual regular season. We should expect the unexpected for the final four rounds of the NCAA men's tournament.

Given the way things have gone, we ranked the remaining No. 1-3 seeds based on their likelihood to be upset in the Sweet 16, from least to most likely.

Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks shouldn't get ahead of themselves, but things are looking good for their chances to reach the Elite Eight.

Through two games, Arkansas has done what it was supposed to. Its first-round matchup against Colgate unfolded as expected, with Justin Smith dominating the Raiders for 29 points, 13 rebounds, five steals and two blocks to compensate for a subpar teamwide shooting performance. The squad's subsequent game against 2019 national runner-up Texas Tech was much closer, but it was just as encouraging.

In the second half, the Red Raiders ate away at a 13-point deficit until it was a one-point game with two minutes left. Such a situation seemingly favored Chris Beard and Co. given their recent postseason success and battle-tested, top-20 defense, so for the Razorbacks to successfully hold serve down the stretch was a testament to their discipline—and it bodes well for their matchup Saturday.

While Oral Roberts has had a magical run with huge upsets against Ohio State and Florida—toppling the Buckeyes in overtime and erasing an 11-point second-half hole against the Gators—we'd feel more comfortable predicting its Cinderella run to continue if one of those wins had been a runaway. If this matchup gets tight down the stretch, we expect Arkansas to pull it out given how it just sealed a close game over a more talented and better-coached opponent.

Don't be surprised if the Golden Eagles march on to the Elite Eight. It would be historic but not shocking in this season. But of the remaining top seeds, Arkansas' short-term path looks like one of the most comfortable.

UCLA did well to dispatch BYU in the first round and caught a schedule break in the round of 32, putting Texas toppler Abilene Christian away by 20. It's been a nice run for the Bruins, but things aren't looking good against the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend.

Nate Oats' team has won eight straight and has been playing like a top seed for the better part of the season. The Tide can score as well as anybody, dropping 96 against Maryland yesterday and scoring 100 points twice this season, and they match that offensive prowess with one of the best-coached defenses in the nation. Arkansas mustered just 59 against Alabama in January, LSU scored 60 in February and Iona succumbed to the tidal wave (sorry) in Saturday's first-round game, managing 55 points.

Oats has this program on the verge of its first Elite Eight since 2004. Another win or two might remind the nation that Alabama isn't just a football school anymore.

Mick Cronin's club has the 12th-ranked offense in the country, per KenPom.com, so if any remaining team can go shot-for-shot with Jaden Shackelford, Jahvon Quinerly, John Petty Jr. and the rest of Alabama's roster, it could be the Bruins. On the other hand, if UCLA only scored 67 against Abilene Christian—a good defensive team but a far less athletic one than the Tide—then it might be lucky to crack 60 on Sunday.

Is Gonzaga a better team than Alabama? Certainly. In Creighton, though, the Bulldogs face a tougher opponent, one that has outperformed expectations lately.

The Bluejays' progress to the Sweet 16 can be seen as a classic lucky draw, considering they've beaten a 12th seed and a 13th seed. However, those two teams were popular upset picks. UC Santa Barbara was a top-75 KenPom team before the tournament and fought Creighton tooth and nail, while Ohio rode a wave of positive momentum into its round-of-32 date before getting swept away by Greg McDermott's defense. 

After a resounding 25-point loss to Georgetown in the Big East title game, the Bluejays have bounced back and shown why they were a Top 10 team earlier this season.

Of course, praise for Creighton seems faint when its opponent Sunday might be the best team we've seen since Anthony Davis' Kentucky squad of 2011-12. Gonzaga had zero problems against Norfolk State and Oklahoma, and Mark Few's team remains in pole position to win the title and run the table.

The Bluejays are good, but even at their best, they'll likely just be another group in Gonzaga's way.

Baylor-Villanova is bound to be one of the best games of the Sweet 16. The Bears have been a Top Two team all season long, while Jay Wright has his Wildcats competing to win their third title in six seasons. If you only have time to watch one matchup Saturday or Sunday, this is the one.

Both teams have been on their A-games. Scott Drew's club pranced past Hartford in the first round and kept Wisconsin at arm's length in the round of 32. Villanova, on the other hand, was a much more interesting case study through the first weekend.

The Wildcats lost four of their last seven prior to the tournament and suffered a devastating blow when star point guard Collin Gillespie tore his MCL. They were on upset alert against Winthrop and seemed unlikely to make a run. Such concerns have proved foolish, as Jeremiah Robinson-Earl's double-double pushed them past the first round and a red-hot first half against No. 13 seed North Texas made the Sweet 16 a reality.

Gillespie's injury will bite Villanova at some point, and that point is likely to be against Baylor's ferocious defense and efficient offense. But considering how well it's played without him and the fact that Wright is a master of March basketball, it's tough to minimize the Wildcats' chances.

Looking at the landscape, Villanova seems like one of the few teams left that could prevent the much-anticipated Gonzaga-Baylor title fight.

Despite losing Isaiah Livers before the tournament, the Wolverines have reminded us how deep and forceful they can be, averaging 84.0 points in victories over Texas Southern and an ambitious LSU team that led for much of the game. The lone remaining Big Ten school, Michigan is steady and has done little to cause concern. However, the same could be said about its Sweet 16 opponent, Florida State.

Leonard Hamilton doesn't have as much NBA-caliber talent as he did last season, but he's one of the best coaches in the country, martialing this team's two-way versatility, length and intelligence to brutal ends.

Raw talent hasn't always been enough, and the Seminoles entered the tournament in a rough patch, having lost three of their last five games, but the first weekend was a great sign that Hamilton is up to his old tricks. FSU beat pesky UNC Greensboro in the first round despite not making a three-pointer and shut down Colorado two days later, limiting the Buffaloes to 35.7 percent overall shooting and pulling away for a 71-53 victory.

Michigan is the better team, but Juwan Howard and his team should be on high alert, particularly with Livers' absence. At their best, the Seminoles can be overwhelming, and while the Wolverines are a balanced, experienced team, so was Colorado.

In summary, this is another must-watch Sunday.

It's time to sound the alarm for Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars.

Sunday's game against Rutgers was worrying, as the Scarlet Knights limited Houston to 37.3 percent shooting. Sampson's tournament experience came in handy as the second half wore on and the Cougars forced two key turnovers in the final minute, but it took a lot of effort to arrive at that point.

We praised Arkansas earlier for closing out against Texas Tech but are criticizing Houston for needing to pull out a victory in the final moments. Double standard? Actually, no. While the Razorbacks will take on Cinderella, the Cougars will face Syracuse, a team coached by underdog Svengali Jim Boeheim.

The Hall of Famer led his 2016 team from a No. 10 seed to the Final Four, made the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed in 2018 and seems to be on a similar path now. Led by coach's son Buddy, the Orange coolly dispatched San Diego State in the first round and looked confident in pulling out what became a tight victory over West Virginia on Sunday. Buddy Boeheim is averaging 24.2 points per game on 52.4/48.9/88.0 shooting splits over his last nine games and is a prime candidate to be this year's Kemba Walker.

Will he follow in Kemba's footsteps and lead Syracuse to a title? Probably not. Does his white-hot shooting combined with his dad's March track record bode poorly for Houston in the Sweet 16? Most definitely.