2021 NFL Draft: 5 Best 1st-Round Prop Bets to Jump on Now

The start of the 2021 NFL draft is Thursday, making this the perfect time to begin looking at props.

You can bet on when certain players or positions will get drafted or go extreme with various long shots. This piece will focus on the former, and with odds always subject to change based on betting trends, you should lock these five in now.

The quarterback class has been the biggest storyline surrounding this draft. There are five signal-callers projected to come off the board early in the first, with a chance that the first four picks are all QBs.

Trevor Lawrence is a lock at No. 1, with bookmakers setting the odds at -10000. That translates to one needing to risk $100 just to win a single dollar if and when the Clemson product is selected first. With the Jacksonville Jaguars desperate for a franchise quarterback, you can write this one in with pen.

BYU's Zach Wilson will surely go second. He is regarded as the second-best QB in the class and is -5000 to be the No. 2 pick and should land with the New York Jets, who recently cleared a path by trading incumbent starter Sam Darnold.

The third pick is where things get interesting. Alabama's Mac Jones currently paces the field with -167 odds, but there are other options. Ohio State's Justin Fields isn't far behind at +175, while North Dakota State's Trey Lance is +400.

Assuming the San Francisco 49ers go QB—it's hard to imagine another outcome after they traded up to the No. 3 pick—it will be on the Atlanta Falcons to make the final domino fall. Atlanta needs an heir to an aging Matt Ryan and could find one at No. 4, but there is also the potential to trade back.

A quarterback should still come off the board at No. 4 regardless of which team makes this pick. The price to move up will likely be too high to warrant any selection but a QB. While the odds aren't going to result in a spectacular payday, the "yes" side of this prop should cash tickets on Day 1.

Positional over/unders can be tough to predict, but one stands out in 2021. Bookmakers have set the total on tight ends taken within the first 32 picks at 1.5, with the under being heavily favored at -500.

The no-doubter is Florida's Kyle Pitts, an elite prospect with a good shot at being the first non-quarterback selected. Otherwise, the guy most likely to get picked early is Penn State's Pat Freiermuth, a behemoth of a prospect who would be a strong addition to many rosters.

Freiermuth was a bona fide weapon during his time at Happy Valley, racking up 43 receptions for 507 yards and seven touchdowns in 2019. He was on pace for another big year this past season before going down with a shoulder injury, but he still hauled in 23 catches for 310 yards and a score in four games.

At 6'5", 258 pounds, Freiermuth possesses ideal size to complement his excellent athleticism and sure hands. He would be a perfect safety net and red-zone weapon in the pros, and he adds value as a quality blocker.

He fits well with a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars, who hold the No. 25 pick. They could develop Freiermuth alongside projected top pick Trevor Lawrence. 

There is the option to wager on the Jags taking a tight end with their second pick at +1000, but the safer bet would be to just take the over on first-round tight end selections.

Freiermuth is a first-round talent at a thin position. Franchises desperate for help at tight end shouldn't let him fall into the second round, especially considering how weak the class is overall.

One of the most hotly debated topics leading up to the draft is which quarterback the 49ers will take at No. 3. The club cooked up a blockbuster trade to move up nine spots last month, giving up the No. 12 pick plus first- and third-rounders next year plus a 2023 first to the Miami Dolphins.

Assuming Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are off the board, the Niners will be choosing between Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. Bookmakers are giving an edge to Jones, who led Alabama to a national title and threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns against just four interceptions last season. He is -167 to become the third pick, but Fields is still very much in the running at +175, and Lance warrants consideration at +400.

Fields is the best value bet here. The Ohio State product came up short with the national title on the line but still had an incredible campaign, amassing 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air and adding another 383 yards and five scores with his legs in just eight games.

While Fields may not be as NFL-ready as Jones, he possesses a sky-high ceiling.

The Niners can afford to be patient bringing Fields along because of the presence of Jimmy Garoppolo. If the team does go with Fields, it would likely keep Garoppolo around for 2021 as the rookie gets brought up to speed.

While either Jones or Fields could work in head coach Kyle Shanahan's system, Fields would eventually bring more to the table. Although Jones would be a safer bet, Fields could end up being the best quarterback from this class. Jones doesn't have that type of upside, making him a questionable pick for a team that just gave up a ton of future value to land a top signal-caller.

The Cincinnati Bengals occupy one of the most interesting positions at No. 5 with no need for a franchise QB with Joe Burrow.

Some experts believe that Cincy will bolster its offensive line. It would be a sensible selection given the punishment Burrow endured last year, as Pro Football Focus ranked the Bengals as the third-worst unit in the league. The 32 sacks and 42 hits Burrow took were the second- and fifth-highest marks in those categories through the first 11 weeks of the campaign before he tore his ACL.

Penei Sewell, the elite left tackle from Oregon, would be an obvious candidate, but the Bengals could wait to address the issue. This O-line class is deep, as there are 10 offensive tackles and three interior linemen ranked inside the top 52 on PFF's big board. The team has selections at No. 38 and No. 69, as well as five other picks later in the draft.

If the Bengals don't go with Sewell, expect them to give heavy consideration to Florida's Kyle Pitts. He is not only the top tight end but also regarded as a generational talent. Cincinnati needs to support Burrow with more weapons, and arguably no prospect would be more impactful than Pitts.

Last year, Drew Sample was the Bengals' leading tight end option with 40 catches for 349 yards and a touchdown. Sample, a 2019 second-round pick, may be developing into a quality player, but he doesn't possess the game-breaking potential that Pitts has.

If Cincinnati misses out on Pitts, it will be difficult for the organization to find a worthwhile tight end in this draft. He is the only tight end ranked in the top 50 of PFF's big board, and only three players at the position fall within the top 100.

Modern defenses often deploy three or four cornerbacks at any given time, and using a first-round pick on an elite nickel corner is justifiable in 2021. No prospect has a brighter future at the position than Florida State's Asante Samuel Jr.

He's only 5'10" and 184 pounds, but he is an athletic ballhawk with incredible awareness. He's also strong enough and does a great job keeping things in front of him. PFF noted that Samuel conceded just 179 yards in coverage in 2020, a testament to his ability to limit big plays.

Samuel, whose father was a four-time Pro Bowl corner, needs to work on limiting penalties and improving as a tackler, but he'd still be a major asset in the right scheme. He possesses the speed and coverage ability that make his floor a stud nickel corner at the very least.

Even if Samuel only truly excels in the nickel, he would still be seeing the field quite often. Defenses were in nickel or dime packages over 70 percent of the time between 2018 and 2019, a trend that isn't likely to change anytime soon. That effectively makes the nickel corner a starting-caliber player.

If there is an early run on corners—with Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, Caleb Farley and Greg Newsome II coming off the board—Samuel should be gone before the opening day of the draft wraps up.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

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