NCAA Tournament 2021: Latest Predictions and Odds for Bracket-Busters
There are plenty of different ways to bet on potential bracket-busters in the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
The props and money lines you feel most comfortable with depend on how far certain teams will advance in your bracket projections.
If you think a team has one upset in it, you can wager on a money line or spread in the first round. If you think it will go further, you could bet on it to advance to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.
The Utah State Aggies and UC Santa Barbara Gauchos are both viewed as long shots to win more than one game, but they carry plenty of value if they go beyond the round of 64.
If they bust their respective parts of the bracket, they could cash in on some intriguing futures bets, as well as single-game tickets.
Utah State
Utah State possesses plenty of experience throughout the court that could test the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first round.
Neemias Queta, who averages 15.1 points and 10 rebounds per game, is one of the most dominant big men in the field of 68.
The Aggies have surrounded him with plenty of efficient shooters in Brock Miller, Marco Anthony and Rollie Worster, all of whom shoot over 40 percent from the field.
The inside-outside combination should test the Texas Tech defense, and if the Aggies can contain Mac McClung's production, they could spring an upset.
Utah State is currently a +163 (bet $100 to win $163) underdog in its matchup with Texas Tech, and it also carries value to make the Sweet 16 at +600.
Although the Mountain West ended up as a two-bid league, it could have had four teams if the Colorado State Rams and Boise State Broncos hadn't faltered down the stretch.
Utah State went 4-4 in matchups with Colorado State, Boise State and the San Diego State Aztecs. It won three in a row against the Aztecs and Rams in mid-January. In that stretch, Utah State held the two opponents beneath 65 points.
In each of its last four wins, Utah State held opponents under 60 points, and if that defense shows up in Indianapolis, it could lead to a run into the second weekend.
Utah State is at +600 to make the Sweet 16 because it would have to go through the high-powered offense of the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Aggies showed in their matchups with top opponents that they can lock down on the defensive end. If they find a way to silence Arkansas' guard unit, they could make a Sweet 16 run as a No. 11 seed.
However, Arkansas has been able to pull away from most of its opponents lately. It has a single win by fewer than five points since February 2.
With that in mind, it may be safer just to rely on Utah State's defense in the first round and take a small wager on its Sweet 16 future.
Prediction: Utah State beats Texas Tech, loses in round of 32.
UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara could be a popular bracket buster because of its matchup and seeding.
No. 12 seeds are typically the most reliable upset picks, and three of them advanced to the round of 32 in 2019.
The Gauchos reside in what may be the weakest part of any bracket since the fifth-seeded Creighton Bluejays and No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers experienced some struggles prior to March Madness.
Creighton managed to produce 48 points in the Big East tournament final, and it was limited to 59 points in its semifinal victory.
UC Santa Barbara closed its Big West campaign with five straight victories, all of which were by eight points or more, and won the conference tournament final by 16 points.
The Big West champion has three dynamic scorers, led by JaQuori McLaughlin, who averages 16.2 points per game and shoots 40.4 percent from three-point range.
Amadou Sow and Ajare Sanni both average over 10 points per game as well, and they could threaten the Creighton defense from a few angles.
The Gauchos could be an intriguing pick as a +245 money-line underdog against Creighton. If the Bluejays fail to score again, they could be susceptible to an upset.
If an upset occurs on the other side of the West region pod, UCSB could be pitted against the Ohio Bobcats in a No. 12-versus-No. 13 matchup. Virginia is only a few contests removed from a three-game losing streak and will not arrive in Indianapolis until Friday.
Since Creighton and Virginia could be upset-prone, a small flier on UCSB at +800 to make the Sweet 16 could pay out well.
Prediction: UC Santa Barbara advances to Sweet 16.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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