NCAA Bracket 2021: Smart Predictions for Round 1's Most Intriguing Matchups

NCAA Bracket 2021: Smart Predictions for Round 1's Most Intriguing Matchups
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1No. 8 North Carolina over No. 9 Wisconsin
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2No. 6 San Diego State over No. 11 Syracuse
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3No. 5 Colorado over No. 12 Georgetown
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NCAA Bracket 2021: Smart Predictions for Round 1's Most Intriguing Matchups

Mar 15, 2021

NCAA Bracket 2021: Smart Predictions for Round 1's Most Intriguing Matchups

The North Carolina Tar Heels did not have the best season by their high standards, but they still managed to reach the NCAA men's basketball tournament, which is something their biggest rival, the Duke Blue Devils, can't brag about.

Roy Williams' team earned an intriguing draw in the South Region against the Wisconsin Badgers. Greg Gard's squad carries a good amount of experience, but it fell apart toward the end of the regular season. If the Badgers rediscover a bit of the form that led them to a 7-3 start in the Big Ten, they could challenge the Tar Heels, especially on the boards through Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers.

The Syracuse Orange are another traditional men's basketball power locked into a lower seed, and some were shocked they did not end up in the First Four. Jim Boeheim's zone defense has given countless teams trouble in previous men's NCAA tournaments, but the San Diego State Aztecs could be well equipped to handle it since they have one of the most experienced backcourts in the field of 68.

The Georgetown Hoyas are also a historic program, but they have not achieved as much success of late as UNC and Syracuse. Patrick Ewing's side could be viewed as a dangerous No. 12 seed, but it faces a tough matchup with the Colorado Buffaloes, who were one win short of taking the Pac-12 tournament.

               

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No. 8 North Carolina over No. 9 Wisconsin

Although UNC came three points short of advancing to the ACC tournament final, it showed Friday night how it will win games in March.

The Tar Heels won the rebound battle against the Florida State Seminoles, 42-39, and used a 42-point second-half surge to be competitive down the stretch.

In the ACC tournament quarterfinal win over the Virginia Tech Hokies, the Tar Heels gained a 43-32 rebound advantage and made the same number of field goals as their opponent.

Armando Bacot, Garrison Brooks and Day'Ron Sharpe all average more than six rebounds per game, and they could turn in another 40-rebound night to eliminate Wisconsin.

UNC should have the edge on the glass in the first-round game since the Badgers had trouble containing two of the best paint players in the Big Ten. Kofi Cockburn and the Illinois Fighting Illini had a 13-board edge over Wisconsin on February 27, and Luka Garza pulled down 25 rebounds in two recent meetings with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers are solid players in their own right, but they do not have the high rebounding totals that UNC's trio possesses. The two frontcourt stars combine to average 9.1 rebounds per game.

If North Carolina's rebounding prowess takes away second-chance opportunities for Wisconsin and creates more of them on its end, it could run away with the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup.

No. 6 San Diego State over No. 11 Syracuse

San Diego State comes into March Madness on a 14-game winning streak that includes the Mountain West tournament title.

Syracuse won three of its last four games to jump off the bubble. It almost won its most recent contest against the Virginia Cavaliers, but it was beaten on a last-second game-winning shot.

The Orange are known for a zone defense that has been the ultimate neutralizer of offenses in previous years. They made the Sweet 16 in 2018 as an 11-seed and reached the Final Four in 2016 as a 10-seed. That could be in the back of your mind as you look at which teams could make Cinderella runs into the second weekend and beyond.

However, Syracuse should not be included on that list because it faces a difficult matchup against San Diego State's backcourt duo of Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel.

Mitchell and Schakel, who both average more than 14 points per game, are the primary holdovers from the squad that went 30-2 and challenged for a No. 1 seed before the men's NCAA tournament was cancelled last season.

The senior guards have played against all sorts of defenses and should not be fazed by Syracuse's zone approach. In fact, San Diego State's defense may be the one that tortures an offense in the No. 6 vs. No. 11 encounter.

During their 14-game winning run, the Aztecs allowed only two opponents to score more than 70 points, and it held eight foes beneath 60 points. If the Aztecs limit the three-point output of Buddy Boeheim and solves the zone early on, they should progress to the round of 32.

No. 5 Colorado over No. 12 Georgetown

Georgetown will be one of the sentimental favorites to win a game or two in the Big Dance.

Patrick Ewing's team won the Big East tournament in the building the coach used to call home with the New York Knicks, and it did so in the first event there following the death of former Hoyas coach John Thompson.

Georgetown deserves full credit for winning four games in four days, but its path was made easier by a handful of circumstances.

The Hoyas opened with a win over the Marquette Golden Eagles, who had a historically bad first half, scoring just 14 points. Then they beat a depleted Villanova Wildcats squad playing its second game without Collin Gillespie. Georgetown then took down a Seton Hall Pirates side it defeated three weeks prior before downing the Creighton Bluejays, who closed Big East play on a 3-3 record.

The Hoyas' magical run should end against the Colorado Buffaloes for a few reasons: better guard play, an even paint matchup and Tad Boyle's team finding itself in a similar situation as it was in the Pac-12 tournament final.

Colorado was upset by the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday, and it should be better prepared to deal with whatever a Cinderella team throws in its direction.

The Pac-12 side has a guard in McKinley Wright IV, who is arguably better than any of the backcourt players Georgetown faced in the Big East. The senior guard averages 15.5 points per game and hit the 20-point mark in three of his past five appearances.

Colorado also has the edge in the paint with Evan Battey and Jeriah Horne, who both average more than 10 points and five rebounds per game. Battey and Horne can neutralize the impact of Qudus Wahab and Jamorko Pickett, who average more than 12 points and seven rebounds per contest.

If Battey and Horne contain Georgetown's paint players, Wright could take over and be the difference-maker to avoid a 12-5 upset.

                     

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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