NCAA Tournament Bracket 2021: Region-by-Region Sleepers, Final Four Predictions
Very few brackets picked for the NCAA men's basketball tournament will be perfect.
Even a 50 percent success rate on picks for a competition with so much unpredictability could be viewed as a success in some years.
Upsets will happen, especially in the first few rounds, which means you should take some time to familiarize yourself with the top sleepers in each region.
A majority of the unlikely victories will come from mid-major teams that dominated their respective leagues to get into the field of 68 and now have a chance to spring an upset that will enshrine them in March Madness lore.
While the upsets are fun for neutral observers, the best teams in the tournament will try to avoid them to land the championship they have been hunting all season.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs appear to be the most immune team to any upsets since they have not lost this season, but who joins them in the Final Four is up the air, with a handful of teams getting hot at the right time.
West Region
Final Four Prediction: Gonzaga
It will be hard to make a case against Gonzaga reaching the Final Four.
Mark Few's team has arguably the easiest region to work through, and it has nonconference victories over the three other top seeds in the West Region.
The first four rounds could be a national showcase for Gonzaga to prove why it has been the best team in the nation all season.
Gonzaga leads Division I with 92.3 points per game, which is almost six more than the Colgate Raiders in second.
The Bulldogs are also one of six programs to shoot over 50 percent from the field. They shoot 55.1 percent and are one of two NCAA tournament teams among that group. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are the other.
Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert and Drew Timme could extend their dominant shooting run in the first few rounds against teams that stumbled into the postseason.
If everything goes right for the Zags, they will not be tested until the Final Four at the earliest.
Sleeper: Ohio
The West Region has a slew of potential sleepers waiting to pounce on Power Five teams.
The Ohio Bobcats could be in the ideal position to make a run to the second weekend because they are coming off a fantastic run at the MAC tournament and have the potential to break down the defensive strengths of the Virginia Cavaliers.
Led by Jason Preston, the Bobcats have five players who average over 10 points per game and they shoot 48.9 percent from the field. Preston and Ben Roderick both shoot above 40 percent from three-point range as well. If Virginia tries to contain Preston, Ohio could turn to Roderick or Ben Vander Plas to knock down a few open shots.
At its best, Ohio will spread the ball around, have a balanced scoring column and put up a large number of points.
The Bobcats eclipsed the 80-point mark in all three MAC tournament games, and it held two of their foes under 70.
If its explosive offense translates to the Big Dance, Ohio could be one of the mid-major teams you fall in love with.
East Region
Final Four Prediction: Texas
A strong argument can be made that the Big 12 was a tougher conference to navigate than the Big Ten.
Shaka Smart's Texas Longhorns played six of their last eight games against Top 25 teams. Seven of the league's programs were ranked going into the conference tournament.
Texas survived a majority of its contests since mid-February to claim the Big 12 tournament title over the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday.
The Longhorns have a nice complement of high-scoring guards and powerful paint players who could guide them through the East Region. Texas has six players who average eight or more points per game and a quartet of that group brings down at least four rebounds per game.
Jericho Sims could be a candidate to be a breakout star in March since he has three double-doubles in his last four games.
In the Big 12 tournament final, Texas had four players scored 13 points or more, led by Matt Coleman's 30, and bested Oklahoma State in three-point and free-throw percentage as well as rebounds.
If Texas brings that well-rounded approach into the NCAA tournament, it could make a deep run, especially if the Michigan Wolverines are still without second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers.
Sleeper: St. Bonaventure
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have a chance to make some noise right off the bat in Indianapolis.
The Bonnies are coming off an Atlantic 10 tournament triumph on Sunday, and they won six of their last seven games to earn the No. 9 seed and a matchup with the LSU Tigers.
LSU pushed the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC tournament final, but it has also struggled at points against Top 25 opponents. The Tigers are 2-5 versus those teams. In those five losses, LSU eclipsed the 75-point mark on one occasion. It averages 82.1 points per game.
St. Bonaventure has the defense that can take LSU out of its shooting rhythm, as it held opponents to 65 points or fewer in its last six wins.
If Mark Schmidt's team flexes its defensive strength in the opening round, it could translate to a matchup with Michigan, where Hunter Dickinson's paint threat could be contained by Osun Osunniyi, who is a half-rebound away from averaging a double-double.
St. Bonaventure needs to play a near-perfect game to take down Michigan, but it has the defensive capabilities and a towering big man who could help it earn a shock Sweet 16 berth.
South Region
Final Four Prediction: Arkansas
If you have not watched much college basketball this season, Arkansas is one of the teams you must tune in to see.
The Razorbacks play a fast-paced, exciting style of basketball and have a handful of players who can score at a high rate on any given night.
In the last six games, JD Notae and Moses Moody combined to produce five team-leading performances that eclipsed 20 points.
Moody, a potential lottery pick in the 2021 NBA draft, leads a collection of four players who average over 10 points per game. As a team, Arkansas averages 82.4 points per game and shoots 45.5 percent from the field.
Additionally, the Hogs have a defense that conceded fewer than 70 points recently against two NCAA tournament teams, and they have a head coach in Eric Musselman who led the Nevada Wolf Pack to a Sweet 16 berth in 2018.
Arkansas has better closing ability than the Ohio State Buckeyes, who almost blew three games at the Big Ten tournament, and its offense is one of the few units that can keep pace with the top-seeded Baylor Bears.
Sleeper: Winthrop
The Winthrop Eagles will be the most popular sleeper pick in the NCAA tournament.
The Big South champion is 23-1 and has a favorable matchup against the depleted Villanova Wildcats, who are without point guard Collin Gillespie and do not have Justin Moore at 100 percent.
Each of the top four scorers on the Winthrop roster averages over 10 points per game and shoot better than 40 percent from the field.
Winthrop's difference-maker could be D.J. Burns Jr., who dominated the Big South tournament final with 22 points and a 91.7 field-goal percentage.
Burns could cause some issues inside for Villanova since he can be incredibly accurate in the paint. The 6'9" big has made over 70 percent of his shots in two of the last five games and has a field-goal percentage of 58.
If Burns gets going down low, he could partner with one of Winthrop's top three guards to wreak havoc on a Villanova team that is still figuring out to play without Gillespie, its second-leading scorer.
Midwest Region
Final Four Prediction: Illinois
The Illinois Fighting Illini may be the only team playing better basketball than Gonzaga coming into the NCAA tournament.
Brad Underwood's team reeled off seven consecutive victories, five of which were against Top 25 teams, to finish second in the Big Ten and win the conference tournament.
Illinois has a dynamic pair of playmakers in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn who can counter the production of every star on the teams it faces in March.
On paper, matchups with the Loyola Chicago Ramblers and Oklahoma State Cowboys could be difficult, but Cockburn could manhandle Cameron Krutwig while Dosumnu could outperform Cade Cunningham.
Just like Gonzaga, Illinois has a wealth of role players it can call on to make big shots if Dosunmu and Cockburn go through rough stretches.
On Sunday, four other players, and all three that came off the bench, found their way into double digits to support Dosunmu and Cockburn.
If Illinois receives similar production over the next few weeks, it could cut down the nets on April 5.
Sleeper: Morehead State
The Morehead State Eagles had one of the most impressive finishes to a mid-major season in the Ohio Valley Conference.
The No. 14 seed in the Midwest Region defeated the Belmont Bruins, who finished 26-4, twice in its last four games and knocked out the Eastern Kentucky Colonels, another 20-win team, in the OVC tournament semifinals.
Morehead State has a single defeat to Belmont since the calendar flipped to 2021, and it has a few explosive scorers who can keep pace with the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Johni Broome, DeVon Cooper and Skylear Potter all average over 11 points per game, and they all exceeded their averages in the OVC tournament final.
Morehead State received at least one 20-point performance from the trio in five of the last six games, and if West Virginia struggles to contain them, the Eagles could spring the first round's biggest upset.
West Virginia's NCAA tournament history under Huggins suggests an upset could be in the cards early on. The Mountaineers have made it past the Sweet 16 once in nine Big Dance appearances under Huggins, and they were eliminated four times on the event's first weekend.
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Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.