Buying or Selling Latest MLB Trade, Free-Agency Buzz on Jackie Bradley Jr., More

The 2020 NFL season concluded this past weekend, and baseball is right around the corner.

That's right: Pitchers and catchers will report to spring training sometime next week, meaning we could see one last flurry of free-agent signings and trades.

Last week saw two of the biggest names sign, with Trevor Bauer heading home to Los Angeles after inking a pact with the Dodgers and Marcell Ozuna re-upping with the Atlanta Braves. Plus, the Colorado Rockies finalized a deal to send Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals. 

An offseason rife with frustrating periods of inactivity has also seen seismic acquisitions. What else is in store with spring training on the horizon? Here is some of the latest buzz from around Major League Baseball, including Jackie Bradley Jr.'s market.

Bradley is one of the best position players still on the market, and he's looking for a long-term deal.

Mike Puma of the New York Post reported last week the 30-year-old is seeking a "significant contract" of possibly four years or more. He might be all the more emboldened after Ozuna got four years from Atlanta.

Yes, Ozuna is seven months younger than Bradley. He is also far more productive at the plate. That said, Bradley is a generational defender at a premium position in center field. 

Bradley has ranked in the 91st percentile or higher in outs above average (OAA) in each of the last four years. He had a case for the Gold Glove last season and is consistently an elite defensive outfielder.

The Virginia native has been less consistent at the dish. Bradley has a career .732 OPS and 94 OPS+. He has had three seasons with an OPS over .800 but also had a wRC+ no higher than 90 in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. How will interested suitors evaluate Bradley? Some of his offensive results are confounding. 

Bradley ranked in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2018, but that yielded just a .234 average and a .403 slugging percentage. He struck out less and improved the whiff rate in 2020 but ranked in the 40th percentile or lower in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Yet, that change in approach resulted in an .814 OPS. 

Perhaps executives will bank on Bradley's upside as a guy who can hit for power to go with his defensive prowess. But given that he's on the cusp of 31 and lacks a steady offensive track record, a four-year deal seems unlikely.

The Verdict: Buy Bradley's desire for that length, sell his expectation

The New York Mets might be primed to push for Bradley after missing out on Bauer.

Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reported the Mets remain "very much engaged" with Bradley's camp after signing former Chicago Cubs center fielder Albert Almora Jr. Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post also reported the Mets had an "extended Zoom meeting" with Bradley in the past week. 

Adding Bradley would seem to make sense, especially considering Mets president of baseball operations Sandy Alderson said last month he is "not comfortable" with Dominic Smith as the everyday left fielder. But the Mets have a problem, as there will be nowhere else to put Smith.

Sherman reported Major League Baseball and the MLBPA finalized a deal on health and safety protocols Monday. However, that deal does not include the universal designated hitter.

Had the universal DH remained in 2021, the Mets could have signed Bradley while moving Brandon Nimmo to left field, shifting Smith to first base and moving Pete Alonso to DH. But Bradley would create an outfield logjam.

Alderson said on the Big Time Baseball podcast he has no interest in trading Smith, who likely could be packaged to fetch a top arm, if the Mets choose. New York could trade Nimmo, who will be a free agent in 2023. But the 27-year-old had an .888 OPS and 146 OPS+ in 2020 and is a key left-handed bat. 

It should be said the Mets vigorously pursued George Springer, which could suggest they might still sign Bradley. But Springer is a perennial All-Star, and those negotiations took place during a time when New York's front office probably felt more optimistic about the universal DH. 

Before Monday's deal was finalized, this would have been of the "buy" variety. But the Mets no longer appear as logical a destination as a team like the Houston Astros, who are still in need of Springer's replacement in center field.    

The Verdict: Sell

Although Cleveland traded megastar shortstop Francisco Lindor and veteran starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco, it is not inclined to blow it all up.

The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported teams have inquired about Jose Ramirez. However, he notes there is no interest in dealing Ramirez.

The 28-year-old was one of the best players in baseball in 2020. Ramirez hit 17 homers with 10 stolen bases and a .993 OPS. He led the American League with 45 runs scored, also posting a career-high 163 OPS+. Although Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu was more than deserving of winning AL MVP, Ramirez had a case, especially after leading the majors in FanGraphs WAR (fWAR). 

Then there's this interesting tidbit: Ramirez has been more valuable than Lindor since 2016 by fWAR, ranking fifth in baseball during that span, one spot ahead of the shortstop. 

Cleveland dealt Lindor because he was in his final year of arbitration and primed to sign a massive contract. But there is no incentive to move Ramirez, who has a $9 million salary in 2021 and a combined $26 million in club options in 2022 and 2023, per Spotrac. Those two options must be picked up shortly after the 2021 World Series. 

Cleveland is still hoping to contend, as evidenced by its signing of Eddie Rosario. It has a deep pitching staff and added production in the outfield. If shortstop Amed Rosario more closely resembles the guy he was in 2019, he could play a major role in determining Cleveland's ability to compete in the AL Central.

Ramirez's value is unlikely to go down anytime soon, considering how affordable he is over the next few seasons. Cleveland can deal him later if it wishes, but that would be nonsensical if the franchise hopes to contend in the present.

The Verdict: Buy

The Astros never seemed engaged in re-signing Springer, which might have something to do with a Carlos Correa extension. 

Houston reached an agreement with Correa on his 2021 salary, avoiding arbitration. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported the Astros will pay Correa $11.7 million in 2021, which is $575,000 over the midpoint of the initial figure exchange.

This could signal the Astros' willingness to start working on an extension with Correa. Rome reported Houston is typically a "file and trial" organization, usually refusing to negotiate after the deadline to exchange figures. But the Astros departed from that with Correa, who will be a free agent after this season.

As Rome noted, Correa said last month he wanted to be in Houston for the duration of his career, and Astros general manager James Click acknowledged the sides have discussed a long-term deal. Is it real, or is the good-faith negotiating just a bunch of smoke?

Correa is a bit of a polarizing star. His career has been hindered by durability questions. He was unabashed in embracing the villain role and going at Astros haters following the sign-stealing scandal.

The Puerto Rico native has also been inconsistent. Correa posted a .728 OPS in 2018 but hit 21 homers and had a .926 OPS in just 75 games in 2019. Then the 26-year-old struggled this past season, slugging just .383 with a .709 OPS. 

But there is no doubting Correa's talent. He dazzles in the field with tremendous range for a guy who is 6'4", 220 pounds—not to mention his cannon-like arm.

Despite his regular-season struggles, Correa clubbed six homers and drove in 17 runs during the 2020 postseason. He hit .362 in October and displayed leadership during an exchange with Framber Valdez in Game 6 of the ALCS.

Correa will demand a mint. However, the Astros have big money coming off the books next season, with both Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke set to hit the open market.

Houston has the financial flexibility to hash out an extension with its star shortstop, and avoiding arbitration could be a sign of things to come. 

The Verdict: Buy

This offseason always had a feeling of "one or the other" with respect to the Colorado Rockies trading either of their superstars.

Now that the Rockies have moved Arenado, they might hope to sign shortstop Trevor Story to a long-term extension. Buster Olney of ESPN reported Colorado is "not willing" to discuss Story—a free agent at the end of the season—in trades.

The rationale is straightforward. Colorado lost franchise a cornerstone in Arenado, but Story can be that guy.

He only turned 28 in November. He has an .877 career OPS and ranks fifth among shortstops in fWAR since 2016. He has consistently produced since reaching the majors that year. 

The Texan has all the tools. He hit 72 combined homers and 80 doubles in 2018 and 2019. He led the NL in steals (15) and triples (4) in 2020. Finally, Story ranked 12th among shortstops (OAA) in 2020, just one season after ranking fourth at the position in that same category.

Five-tool shortstops like Story are some of the most exciting players in baseball, and some of the most marketable. Consider the star power of guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Lindor and Javier Baez. Even if Story does not have the same level of charisma as those guys, he is every bit as dynamic. 

Of course, there is no telling whether Story has any intention of re-signing with a club that, in essence, is rebuilding. But the Rockies are likely to at least try to reach an agreement with Story. If nothing else, they can move him at the trade deadline if there is no movement on the contract front. 

The Verdict: Buy

Bauer's decision to play for his hometown Dodgers made all the more sense when considering the terms of his deal.

The reigning National League Cy Young winner will make $40 million in 2021 and can make $45 million in 2022. He also has opt-outs after each of the first two seasons of his three-year pact, which is worth $102 million. 

However, Bauer's choice reportedly took the Mets by surprise.

Sherman relayed the Mets believed they had an agreement with Bauer's camp sometime in the "final 24 hours of the negotiation." But Bauer never signed a term sheet, essentially allowing the Dodgers to make one final, resounding push. 

Sources told Sherman that Alderson "felt he had never proceeded to this extent of negotiations and not finalized the deal."

This is a difficult situation to assess. For starters, it is puzzling the Mets apparently did not cross the T's and dot the I's, so to speak. Why would Alderson and Co. believe an agreement was in place when they failed to consummate the deal with a term sheet? Additionally, while New York's offer was strong, it was similar to L.A.'s. 

Sherman reported the Mets offered Bauer a three-year, $105 million deal (with opt-outs) in which the right-hander could make $80 million in the first two years. Essentially, Bauer would make just $3 million more in total money and $5 million less in the first two seasons. Given the structure of both deals, the Dodgers' offer was likely more appealing even without the geographic narrative.

Bauer is 30 years old. He probably stands a good chance to opt out after year two, so as to reenter the open market and get another multiyear deal. With that in mind, why not take the extra $5 million from L.A.?

It just seems like Alderson and the Mets were beaten. For New York's front office to presume a deal was in the cards when the Dodgers' interest in Bauer had risen in recent weeks—and given the Dodgers were still considered "finalists" Thursday—is either patently foolish or an exaggeration on their part.

The latter might be as a result of the Mets getting outbid for another top free agent following the failed Springer negotiations. Either way, it seems a bit ridiculous for Alderson and Co. to suggest a deal was in place given how the situation played out.

The Verdict: Sell

Atlanta's positional group is mostly set after it re-signed Ozuna. Had the team not brought him back, however, the Braves might have made a push for Arenado.

Rosenthal reported the Braves talked with the Rockies about Arenado, whom Colorado sent to St. Louis. But it is doubtful there was ever any seriousness to the discussions.

Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos has typically been leery of lucrative, long-term deals, and Atlanta would have had to pay Arenado a massive sum.

Consider: The Cardinals could still wind up paying Arenado $164 million after tacking on a seventh year, even though the Rockies are sending St. Louis $50 million to complete the trade. That's a lot of money when considering the viability of Arenado-to-Atlanta, especially when looking at the Braves' future books. 

First baseman and reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman is slated to be a free agent in 2022, though it would be stunning if he makes it to the open market.

The 31-year-old has spent the entirety of his 11-year MLB tenure in Atlanta, with a career .295/.383/.509 slash line and a 139 OPS+. Freeman has long been one of the best hitters in baseball. He is also a former Gold Glover and a defining figure in the clubhouse. The Braves will likely work hard to extend his contract.

A possible Freeman reunion alone was reason enough to hold off on acquiring Arenado, but shortstop Dansby Swanson will be a free agent in 2023.

Re-signing Ozuna was not a cheap venture, per se. His contract can reach up to $80 million over five years. Still, that is a good deal cheaper than Arenado and offers that much more payroll flexibility for a possible Freeman extension and other expenditures.

The Verdict: Sell

The Tampa Bay Rays will be without Blake Snell and Charlie Morton in 2021, but they may be active in areas other than the starting rotation.

Rosenthal reported Tampa Bay is "open" to trading 25-year-old shortstop Willy Adames, who still hasn't reached arbitration. Adames hit 20 homers in 2019, and he hit eight more to go with an .813 OPS in 2020. But the Rays could look to sell high on Adames' value for numerous reasons.

For starters, his game has glaring holes. His strikeout rate has been in the 19th percentile or lower in the past two seasons, and he ranked in just the second percentile in the category in 2020. Adames also ranked dead-last among shortstops in OAA this past season.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the Cincinnati Reds have shown interest in trading for Adames.

Still, the more pressing reason Tampa could move Adames is its depth at short.

Top prospect Wander Franco figures to move through the team's system in a hurry after hitting .339 with an .872 OPS in 52 games at High-A in 2019. The 19-year-old has an elite hit tool and could reach the majors before the end of 2021.

Franco is not the only one to watch in the Rays pipeline. Rosenthal noted 2017 third-round pick Taylor Walls was exceptional at the team's alternate site this past summer.

An Adames trade isn't imminent. But it could be wise for the Rays to deal him before the strikeouts and lackluster defense sour his value.

The Verdict: Buy

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, unless otherwise noted.