Ranking the Chances for Every MLB Team to Land Carlos Correa in Free Agency

With the Astros eliminated by the Braves in Game 6 of the World Series, it could be the last time Carlos Correa is seen in the only uniform he's ever worn.

Free agency awaits the 27-year-old shortstop, who is the youngest in what could be a crowded class of players available at the position.

Correa would help any team, but only a small group is really in play to land him. The incumbent Astros are among them, but who is the favorite?

The answer is what we set to accomplish here, by ranking every team's chances of landing the All-Star shortstop.

Let's get started.

This is a team that doesn't spend a lot of money and probably wants to keep it that way.

The Pirates will add to their payroll, currently third-lowest in MLB, this offseason. But don't expect them to do it by adding a $30 million per year shortstop. 

They are more likely to bring back Erik Gonzalez than sign Correa.

Baltimore, like most teams, could certainly use Correa. But like the Pirates, the Orioles are not in the market for a shortstop with this kind of price tag. 

Baltimore's heavier focuses this offseason will be pitching and whether to trade its own homegrown stars. Correa could end up in the AL East, but this is the squad there least likely to get him.

If the Astros are reluctant to pay Correa beyond six years, you can be sure the Rays feel the same way, and probably stronger about it.

Houston general manager James Click, after all, comes from the Tampa front office tree of frugality and responsibility. 

And of course, Wander Franco is the Rays' shortstop of the future after they traded away Willy Adames.

Replacing outfielder Nick Castellanos in the lineup could become a top priority for the Reds if he opts out of his contract, as expected, and signing Correa does not appear to be in line with the Reds' immediate and future plans.

Like Arizona, Cincinnati will focus on rebuilding its bullpen and whether to exercise club options on key players like starting pitcher Wade Miley. On Wednesday, they made one of those club-option decisions by trading catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Detroit Tigers.

The Reds also appear to view Jose Barrero as the shortstop of the future.

The A's don't even know where they will be playing baseball long-term. That alone makes it hard to believe Correa would be interested in joining them.

If there is a team in the AL West with no chance to land the star shortstop, it's this one.

Plus, the Matts (Chapman and Olson) are both due for significant raises heading into their second year of arbitration. Oakland also has its own list of 10 impending free agents to tend to.

It would seem counterintuitive for Cleveland to trade Francisco Lindor to the New York Mets, only to sign his friend Correa to a similarly expensive contract to the one he commanded in New York. 

The Guardians will play in a much more competitive AL Central, and Correa may join the division. He won't do it in Cleveland, though.

The shortstop there will be either Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez, the centerpiece of the Lindor trade from Cleveland's perspective.

Kansas City shelling out the necessary coin to sign Correa is hard to imagine, given its spending habits and where the Royals' focus should be for 2022. 

How to configure the infield is a question for the Royals, but Correa is not a part of the equation. There is Nicky Lopez, who had a breakout season for Kansas City at second base and figures to be in the mix at shortstop. 

Bobby Witt Jr. is also expected to make his big league debut next year, and he can play all over the infield.

The D-backs are 23rd in payroll going into the offseason, and while they have plenty of decisions to make, signing Correa will not be among them. 

A team that lost 110 games could use help all over, but Arizona is more likely to focus on its pitching staff, both the bullpen and rotation. 

The D-backs also have Geraldo Perdomo, one of the best defensive prospects in the game, to develop at shortstop.

The Brewers just traded for Willy Adames and seem to have some core positions already in place.

Their primary need this offseason is to address the mediocre offense, which Correa would help. 

The two just seem to be unlikely partners, though. You don't trade for Adames just to sign Correa to a mega deal a few months later.

The Padres would be higher on this list if they already did not have highly paid franchise players at Correa’s position and potential position.

San Diego has already invested heavily in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Unless the Padres are interested in trading one of them, which seems unlikely, they don't appear to be a viable landing spot for Correa.

If the Rockies aren't spending on Trevor Story and already traded franchise icon Nolan Arenado, there is no reason to believe them to be a serious option for Correa. 

They are more about letting players like that go rather than keeping them, much less offering the type of deal Correa is looking for. 

MLB.com's Thomas Harding summed up the Rockies' shortstop situation this way:

"If they don't spend at the top of the market, strong fielders who figure to be targets are Jose Iglesias and Andrelton Simmons. A solid veteran could be the bridge until Ezequiel Tovar, 20, the team's No. 11 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is ready."

What became clear from Chicago's ALDS loss to Houston is that roster upgrades are needed on the South Side, especially defensively.

This was one of the worst defensive teams to make the playoffs, and that reared its ugly head when the White Sox faced the Astros. 

They do not, however, have an issue at shortstop with Tim Anderson manning the position. Yoan Moncada at third base is also a cheaper, more reasonable option when considering Chicago's needs are more at second base and right field.

This seems like a place Correa would at least entertain, but only if Miami was serious about paying.

Correa would be a natural fit in the city, an immediate star who would double up as a great player and brand ambassador. 

But how serious are the Marlins about paying for high-end players? Their track record is poor, which makes a logical fit with Correa a lot less interesting.

Rebuilding does not appear to be in the Twins' plans, but neither is signing a shortstop to a 10-year deal. 

Minnesota is likely more focused on pitching.

There is also the question of whether to invest in its own stars like Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey, or if the Twins find themselves in an all-out rebuild reluctantly.

Correa signing there would be a surprise, though it can't be ruled out entirely. 

Philly could use a dependable defensive shortstop like Correa. The team could also stand to give Bryce Harper some help so he does not have to carry the franchise for the next decade.

Correa to Philly actually makes plenty of sense. It's a big market, the team is willing to spend and there is a distinct need. It would be shocking if the Phillies don't make a pitch. 

The other question is whether this would interest Correa.

How shrewd would it be for the 2021 World Series champion Braves to sign Correa shortly after beating down his Astros to end the season?

I don't see it happening. It would make much more sense to just go with a steady Dansby Swanson in that spot, with Austin Riley emerging as a star at third base. 

But don't rule out the possibility, or just the idea, considering how aggressive this front office was at the trade deadline after losing Ronald Acuna Jr.

The obvious connection here is Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the bench coach for the Astros when they won the World Series in 2017. The relationship between these two, both natives of Puerto Rico, remains very strong. 

It's hard to consider Correa will be available and there not being at least be some kind of thought in Boston about acquiring him. 

But the Red Sox already have shortstop Xander Bogaerts locked up for the next five years and another two years with third baseman Rafael Devers under team control, so there isn't really a need here.

It would be on-brand for the best defensive shortstop in baseball to join one of the best defensive teams in baseball. 

This a team that could easily be higher in these rankings, but my sense is the Cardinals would be more in the market for Trevor Story or Corey Seager. 

St. Louis makes sense as a potential destination, considering it could use a shortstop and a player like Correa could be the difference in taking the Cardinals from being a nice end-of-season story to perennial contenders.

Toronto nabbed another Astros legend in George Springer last offseason. They almost took two of Correa's teammates, but a last-ditch effort by the Astros to re-sign Michael Brantley proved successful for Houston. 

The Blue Jays seem to like Bo Bichette at shortstop, but would Correa play third there?

Could Cavan Biggio make the change to second base like his Hall of Fame dad Craig (another Astros legend)?

Toronto has one of the more exciting young teams in baseball and has shown a willingness to be aggressive in free agency. There are plenty of reasons for Correa to be intrigued by it as a landing spot.

The Cubs are more likely to bring back Javier Baez than sign Correa, but if that doesn't happen, this is a surprise to look out for. The Cubs have money to spend, and Correa is interested in the highest bidder. 

Chicago also just traded away most of its young, star talent at the deadline as the window with that 2016 World Series group appeared to be closing. 

Jump-starting a new era with one of the 2017 World Series champions would be an interesting look.

Here is another young, promising young team that has shown in the past it is not shy about taking a big free-agent swing. 

The Mariners, who made a spirited attempt at a wild-card spot before the postseason, need more offense and will likely look to the outside for a way to bolster an overall slash line of .226/.303/.385 for .688 OPS, which ranked fourth-lowest in baseball. 

Simply going after Correa would show just how serious Seattle is about contending.

It would seem San Francisco's offseason priority is pitching and getting Kris Bryant to re-sign.

What makes the Giants an intriguing landing spot is the fact that they had this renaissance in 2021 with so many older players. 

If not Bryant, then could there be another young free-agent position player available that San Francisco is interested in? If so, why would it not be Carlos Correa, who is willing to play third base?

The Nationals should be active this offseason after a recent fire sale. They are rebuilding, and a perfect way to do that would be to sign one of these marquee shortstops in free agency.

Washington entered the offseason with some uncertainty at the position, and it signed Alcides Escobar to a one-year, $1 million extension.

That, however, should not be enough to keep them out of the Correa sweepstakes.

You can't be a team in the New York market and not be in the running for a player like Correa. 

Yes, the Mets just signed Francisco Lindor to a massive deal that Correa is wanting to mirror in his own payday. 

Surely they won't commit $500-600 million to the left side of the infield alone, right?

Seems irresponsible. But it is the Mets, you see.

Pitching should be the Angels' focus, but how could they not be intrigued by Correa? Having him leave the division-foe Astros would be good, but keeping him from going to the Mariners or Texas Rangers would be even better.

The Angels need an upgrade at shortstop. That could come internally by moving David Fletcher from second base, but that doesn't sound nearly as sexy as adding Correa.

It would surprise no one if the Angels neglected their pitching needs to go get him.

While it seems almost certain Correa is leaving the team that drafted him No. 1 overall as a 17-year-old in 2012, don't rule Houston out entirely. 

Astros owner Jim Crane said recently he intends to be in the mix to bring Correa, but dollars will be a factor. The Astros offered Correa contracts worth $120 million over six years, $125 million over and five years, but Correa considered both offers to be low. 

And that was before he led position players in wins above replacement (7.2) this season.

The Astros have to decide if it's worth paying for their homegrown star, who became one of the best postseason performers we've ever seen.

The Dodgers want to bring back Corey Seager, and they are willing to pay. They have several impending free agents they will have to either re-sign or replace, but Seager should be the priciest. The Dodgers enter the offseason with a $162.9 million payroll for 2022, according to Spotrac. 

Trea Turner, whom the Dodgers traded for from the Washington Nationals in July, seems like an obvious backup plan since he'’s played most of his career at shortstop.

What makes this interesting for the Dodgers, even with the Astros feud in the backdrop, is that Correa is objectively better than both Seager and Turner. 

So since they have the money and are willing to pay, why not just go get the best player?

President of baseball operations Jon Daniels made it clear last month the Rangers are not ruling out any free agents "because of a perceived price tag." They want to make a big splash in Arlington, and could stand to get better in every area. 

This is reminiscent of the Rangers in 2000, when they outbid everyone for a then-25-year-old Alex Rodriguez to be their franchise cornerstone (10 years, $252 million). 

Circumstances are different this winter, but the Rangers have seen Correa as much as anyone and the plan is for them to be aggressive.

The timing here is just too perfect. Detroit, for the first time in six years, has the payroll flexibility and upward trajectory to be a legitimate player in free agency.

Last spring, the Tigers signed Robbie Grossman to the team's first multiyear contract for a free agent in five years, then in August signed Jonathan Schoop to a two-year, $15 million extension.

Only Grossman, Schoop, Miguel Cabrera and recently signed catcher Tucker Barnhart have guaranteed contracts next season.

The Tigers, who have a need at shortstop, have a promising young core with A.J. Hinch managing, and Correa knows that potential well.

General manager Brian Cashman has already acknowledged what everyone knows. The Yankees have an obvious need at shortstop. Gleyber Torres has been a disappointment, and even if he wasn't, Correa projects to be a better option.

"Without question as I enter '22 I need to obviously upgrade that position from a defensive standpoint," Cashman told reporters in October.

There are several available, again, with Correa the best among them.

The Yankees already locked up Gerrit Cole two years ago after his time with the Astros expired, and it makes sense to do the same now with Correa.

If the decision for Correa comes down to the highest bidder with the best chance to continue spending to compete, that is the Yankees.