In or Out? Predicting Where Every Fringe 2021 NFL Playoff Team Will Land

In or Out? Predicting Where Every Fringe 2021 NFL Playoff Team Will Land
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1Carolina Panthers (5-5)
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2Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
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3Cleveland Browns (5-5)
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4Denver Broncos (5-5)
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5Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
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6Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
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7Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
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8Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
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9New Orleans Saints (5-4)
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10San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
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In or Out? Predicting Where Every Fringe 2021 NFL Playoff Team Will Land

Nov 19, 2021

In or Out? Predicting Where Every Fringe 2021 NFL Playoff Team Will Land

For some NFL teams, the 2021 season has been a blast. For others, the season has been a disaster.

Then there are the teams drifting in the middle of those two extremes.

For those teams, nothing is certain. They are neither assured of a playoff spot or doomed to head home as soon as Week 18 is complete. They are in the in-between.

The next eight weeks will determine those teams' fates. Peel off some wins, and the postseason is within reach. Suffer many more losses, and they'll be watching the playoffs on TV.

We're going to look at each of those teams here, with predictions for which fringe contenders will make the playoffs and which will come up short.

Carolina Panthers (5-5)

Heading into Week 11, a dozen of the AFC's 16 teams are .500 are better. In the NFC, only seven teams are .500 or better.

In other words: If the regular season ended today, the 5-5 Carolina Panthers would be in the playoffs.

The Panthers rank first in the NFC in total defense and third in scoring defense. Each of their next three games come against teams with losing records. And the return of quarterback Cam Newton seems to have injected a jolt of energy into the Carolina locker room.

"It was so much fun the moment Cam got here," wideout Robby Anderson told reporters. "To come to Carolina, and then the brother come back, it’s like a dream come true."

However, after starting the season 3-0, the Panthers have won only two of their past seven games. That skid included three straight games against teams with losing records (the Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants).

For all the things Newton does well, he struggled passing the ball last year in New England. And the Panthers' last four games are brutal. They have two games against the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers and trips to Buffalo and New Orleans.

That Week 17 tilt in the Superdome might determine whether the Panthers or Saints earn a wild-card spot. And the prediction here is that Newton and the Panthers come up short.

Prediction: 8-9, out of playoffs

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)

Thanks to second-year quarterback Joe Burrow, a fantastic rookie season from wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and a better-than-expected defense, the Cincinnati Bengals come out of their bye week with their best record at this point in the season since 2018.

While the Bengals have done a number of things well, taking care of the football hasn't been one of them.

Cincinnati has 13 giveaways on the season, which is tied for 10th-most leaguewide. The Bengals have a minus-four turnover differential, which offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said has to change.

"If you look at the teams that make the playoffs, the ones that in plus turnover differential are always going to be in the thick of it," Callahan said, via Jay Morrison of The Athletic. "Usually that means they’re not giving games away, and they’re not allowing people to take games from them."

The schedule isn't doing the Bengals any favors, either. Starting with this week's trip to Las Vegas to play the 5-4 Raiders, they have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule. Only one of their remaining opponents is under .500, and that's a 4-5 San Francisco 49ers team that just dropped a piano on the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.

Back in 2018, the Bengals faceplanted, going from 5-4 to 6-10. That isn't likely to happen in 2021, but given their penchant for turning it over and that brutal schedule, a .500 record the rest of the way isn't a stretch. 

Nine wins and the team's first winning season since 2015 would be a substantial improvement for the Bengals. But it won't be enough to get them into the playoffs. 

Prediction: 9-8, out of playoffs

Cleveland Browns (5-5)

Twice in the last three years, the Cleveland Browns rode into the regular season on a wave of hype. And twice in the last three seasons, the Browns have failed to live up to said hype.

Cleveland sports the NFL's fifth-ranked defense and drilled the Bengals 41-16 in Cincinnati two weeks ago. However, the Browns followed that up by getting blasted 45-7 by the New England Patriots on the road.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski told reporters that the Browns are still way too up-and-down:

"We are way, way too inconsistent as a team right now. I've seen some good moments from our offense, from our defense and from special teams. We just have to put it all together. ... I don't think there's any magic wand when it comes to that. We just have to identify and then work at it so that we can play to our full potential."

There's been nothing to indicate that Cleveland can put together that kind of run.

Yes, injuries have played a part, including quarterback Baker Mayfield's torn labrum. But the Browns have looked like a contender one week and a pretender the next.

They'll likely get back above .500 at home Sunday against the winless Detroit Lions, who could be without quarterback Jared Goff. But they have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule and don't play another team with a losing record after the Lions.

Given that Cleveland is 2-5 this season against teams .500 or above, that isn't likely to end well. 

Prediction: 8-9, out of playoffs

Denver Broncos (5-5)

The Denver Broncos are 5-5, but they're in last place in the AFC West.

Last week, it would have been much easier to make a case for Denver's postseason prospects. The Broncos were coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 30-16 road thrashing of the Dallas Cowboys that wasn't as close as the final score suggests.

However, that game now looks like an aberration, as they lost 30-13 at home this past Sunday to a mediocre-at-best Philadelphia Eagles.

That loss was a sobering reminder of the Broncos' flaws. They're stout defensively, ranking seventh leaguewide in yards allowed, but they're only 19th in yards gained, 23rd in points scored, 27th in third-down conversion rate and 29th in red-zone touchdown percentage.

Those are not the numbers of a playoff team.

The Broncos raced out to a 3-0 start buoyed by a soft schedule, but they're 2-5 since then, including a four-game skid. That upset win over Dallas was also Denver's first victory in five tries against teams that have a .500 or better record this season.

Given that six of the Broncos' final seven games are against such teams, including two games each against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, they aren't especially likely to finish above .500. 

Prediction: 7-10, out of playoffs

Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Back in 2018, the Indianapolis Colts lost five of their first six before winning 10 of their final 11 games to make the postseason. This year, they started 0-3, in part because quarterback Carson Wentz injured both ankles.

However, Wentz is now healthy. And after outlasting the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, the Colts have won five of seven to get back to .500 for the season.

After their overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago, head coach Frank Reich told reporters that the Colts need a statement win against a good team to turn their season around.

"That’s what it comes down to," Reich said. "You have to be able to beat those good teams. You have to find ways to win, to close it out at the end. That’s a combination of coaching and playing. We have to find a way to make that breakthrough."

They'll have plenty of opportunities soon enough.

The Colts travel to Buffalo on Sunday and follow that up with a home date with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After their Week 13 bye, they have home dates with the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders and a trip to face the Arizona Cardinals. 

Winning three of four there isn't out of the question. The Colts rank inside the top 15 in both scoring offense and scoring defense and have a history of finishing the regular season strong under Reich.

Indy gets to 10 wins and sneaks into the AFC playoffs. 

Prediction: 10-7, AFC wild card

Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)

The Las Vegas Raiders may be the most surprising team in the NFL this year.

Despite a litany of serious off-field issues, the Raiders won five of their first nine games, including victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. However, they've lost two straight, including a blowout at the hands of the rival Chiefs last week.

The Raiders similarly started hot in each of the past two seasons, only to go 3-5 over the second half of both campaigns. However, quarterback Derek Carr recently insisted that this year will be different.

"Why do I believe, why do I think we can finish better?. This group is different. I came in this morning—and usually, in the past, I would show up and I wouldn't see guys for a little while. I show up in the morning and guys are in there. Guys are showing up. We're walking in at the same time ... they're on fire, ready to go."

Unfortunately, the schedule and the Raiders' recent performance says otherwise. This week's home date with the Bengals is the first of five games against teams with winning records left on the slate, including trips to Dallas, Kansas City and Cleveland.

The Raiders haven't beaten an above-.500 team since Week 2, and they've dropped four of their last six. Vegas is outside the top 15 in scoring offense and a dismal 26th in scoring defense.

Get ready for deja vu all over again.

Prediction: 8-9, out of playoffs

Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

The Los Angeles Chargers have been on quite the ride this season under first-year head coach Brandon Staley.

In Weeks 3-5, the Chargers ripped off three wins in a row over the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns. They averaged a robust 35 points per game over that winning streak.

But in Week 6, they suffered a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens that started a 1-3 skid. After falling to the Minnesota Vikings last week, the Chargers are 5-4 and a half-game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West standings

Staley is aware that the Chargers need to play more consistently to make a run at the postseason. But he's confident they can do just that.

"We're halfway," Staley told reporters. "Past halfway now and we've given ourselves the chance to compete. But we have to get to work, we have to improve and that's also on my mind. When I wake up, it's how much we need to improve and that's where I've been spending a lot of my energy."

Among all of the fringe AFC playoff teams, the Chargers have the easiest remaining schedule. They have two games remaining against the so-so Denver Broncos, along with a home meeting against the New York Giants and a road game against the Houston Texans.

A 5-3 second-half record might not be enough to catch the Chiefs atop the AFC West, but it should get the Chargers into the postseason.

Prediction: 10-7, AFC wild card

Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

Some weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have looked like a contender. Just last week, they took down the 5-4 Chargers in Los Angeles.

But for the most part, the 4-5 Vikings haven't been quite good enough. All five of their losses this season were by a single score, and all five came against teams (Cincinnati, Arizona, Cleveland, Dallas, Baltimore) that are in the playoff hunt.

The Vikings have talent, especially on offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are one of the most potent wide receiver duos in the league. Dalvin Cook is an explosive young running back. And while quarterback Kirk Cousins might not be a superstar, he's a capable veteran starter.

But the Vikings are 23rd in the league in total defense and 2-5 against teams with a record of .500 or better. Considering that combination, it's hard to imagine them making a postseason push, particularly given their upcoming schedule.

On Sunday, the Vikings play the first of two games against the NFC North-leading Packers. They also have games remaining against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears (twice).

The Vikings need to notch five wins over that span to get to 9-8. But they have essentially no margin for error, and have hardly played error-free football.

An even split over the second half and slightly below .500 season (or worse) appears far more likely.

Prediction: 8-9, out of playoffs

New Orleans Saints (5-4)

The New Orleans Saints already had a massive hurdle to clear in 2021: replacing the greatest player in franchise history in quarterback Drew Brees.

Over the first six games of the season, the Saints appeared to be doing a fine job of doing so. They were 4-2 heading into a pivotal Week 7 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Saints beat the defending champions in that game, albeit at a steep price. Quarterback Jameis Winston suffered a torn ACL, thrusting journeyman backup Trevor Siemian into the starting lineup.

Since that game, the Saints have stumbled, losing two in a row to the Atlanta Falcons and Tennessee Titans ahead of this week's trip to Philadelphia. However, they still have a solid shot at the postseason.

For starters, it's not like Winston was on a 5,000-yard pace this season. The Saints were winning thanks to a top-12 ground game and a top-10 defense. Both are still present, and Siemian has been serviceable.

The Saints haven't fallen apart since Winston's injury, either. They just gave the AFC's No. 1 seed all it could handle in Nashville. They haven't lost a game by more than six points since Week 2, and they have wins over the Packers, Patriots and Buccaneers.

New Orleans' rest-of-season schedule isn't too daunting, either. Only three of the Saints' final seven games are against teams above .500 (Buffalo, Dallas and Tampa Bay).

If they win the games they're "supposed" to win, they'll earn a wild-card spot. 

Prediction: 10-7, NFC wild card

San Francisco 49ers (4-5)

A week ago, the San Francisco 49ers appeared to be on life support. After a pair of wins to open the season, they dropped four straight games, and they lost to a shorthanded Arizona Cardinals team led by backup quarterback Colt McCoy in Week 9.

However, the Niners followed up the worst loss of their season with their best win: a 31-10 thrashing of the 7-2 Los Angeles Rams on the road.

It was a potentially season-saving win, but San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that his team is leery of celebrating that victory too much given its precarious postseason positioning:

“I wouldn’t use the words nervous or anxious, but you understand that reality. Emotional games and stuff like that you’ve put a lot into, I've definitely seen that happen to teams. That’s why we weren't trying to celebrate too much last night. We've been frustrated with how this year has gone. We were very happy with how (Week 10) went, but that's one game. This league is week-to-week and it doesn't matter what you did the week before. I know if we can't get it done this week, I know it's not going to mean much to us at all.”

At 4-5 and in third place in the NFC West, the Niners face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. However, they have the sixth-easiest schedule moving forward, with an opponent winning percentage of just .459.

Beginning with this week's trip to Jacksonville, the Niners face five teams down the stretch with sub-.500 records, including the two-win Jags and one-win Texans.

This is largely the same team that represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, and the 49ers are getting players like safety Jaquiski Tartt and linebacker Dre Greenlaw back from injury.

The NFC West may be a lost cause. But a wild-card berth remains on the table.

Prediction: 9-8, NFC wild card

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