Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2022 MLB Playoffs and World Series

Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves on winning their first World Series since 1995. Atlanta had the worst record among the 10 teams who made the postseason, but that didn't matter much once trade-deadline acquisitions Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler caught fire.

But now that it is officially the offseason, it's time to shift gears and set our focus 11 months into the future on the 2022 playoffs.

Even on the day before Opening Day, it's impossible to know what's going to happen in an MLB season. Had you said on March 31 that the Giants would win 28 more games than the Padres this year, you probably would have been called many different names, but you would've been correct.

Predicting what will happen next season before even knowing where anyone will sign during free agency is undeniably a bridge too far.

Let's have some fun anyway with win-loss projections and a full 2022 postseason bracket that I cannot wait to have screen-shotted and tweeted back at me on a daily basis next September and October.

It's especially difficult to know what to make of the AL East because it had four legitimate World Series contenders in 2021. Now, all four of those contenders have multiple key players hitting free agency.

Of the bunch, though, Tampa Bay's likely personnel changes are the least star-studded. The Rays might lose a few noteworthy relief pitchers and probably DH Nelson Cruz, but that's a small price to pay compared to Toronto losing Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray and Steven Matz, New York saying goodbye to Anthony Rizzo and Corey Kluber and Boston potentially needing to replace Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Schwarber, Adam Ottavino and J.D. Martinez—if Martinez opts out of the final year of his deal.

Combine that with the fact that Tampa Bay won this division by eight games this past season, and the Rays pretty much have to be considered the way-too-early favorite to repeat as AL East champs.

But two through four is anyone's guess, and it's an important guess since both AL wild card spots came from this division in 2021.

New York seems most likely to be the first runner-up, as the Yankees are still loaded even without Rizzo and Kluber. If Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres and/or Luis Severino can regain their pre-2021 dominant form, and if this team can stay reasonably healthy for a change, New York could/should be the best team in the big leagues in 2022. (But that's a lot of "ifs.")

And while Toronto might have the highest-scoring offense next season, that rotation is going to be loaded with question marks if Ray and Matz both walk. The Blue Jays will, once again, be one of the best fourth-place finishers since MLB went to the six-division format in 1994.

Projected AL East Standings:
1. Tampa Bay Rays 98-64
2. New York Yankees 95-67 (wild card)
3. Boston Red Sox 90-72
4. Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
5. Baltimore Orioles 53-109

Chicago won this division by a 13-game margin in 2021, and there's a good chance that was just the beginning of a multiseason reign by White Sox.

It's going to hurt a little bit if they're unable to re-sign Carlos Rodon after his dominant, 2.37 ERA season. But if we assume that young stars Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal will be healthy enough to appear in more than 177 combined games in 2022, that would make up for losing Rodon.

Also, it's not like the rotation is going to fall apart without Rodon. They still have Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease for at least two more years, and moving former highly touted prospect Michael Kopech from the bullpen back into a starting role could be a big boost.

Even if the rotation has some hiccups, this lineup should be dynamite. Needing to decide between Yermin Mercedes and Gavin Sheets as the primary DH is a nice biggest dilemma to have heading into the offseason.

Don't sleep on Detroit making a run at the White Sox, though. After a 9-24 start to the season, the Tigers went 68-61 the rest of the way. They aren't losing much of anything to free agency, and in spite of Miguel Cabrera's gargantuan contract, their current projected payroll for 2022 is merely $76.6 million. Considering this franchise had an Opening Day payroll north of $200 million just five years ago, they have plenty of room to make some big moves this offseason.

But to make that push, Detroit desperately needs to improve against its own division. The Tigers went 47-39 against the other five divisions, but finished either 8-11 or 7-12 against each of the other four teams in the AL Central in 2021.

If not Detroit, Cleveland could also threaten to make things interesting. If they let free agents Blake Parker, Bryan Shaw, Roberto Perez, Wilson Ramos and Ryan Lavarnway walk, basically the entire Guardians roster will be under the age of 30 with a lot of potential. In fact, they had nine different pitchers under the age of 27 make at least 11 starts in 2021. If that young nucleus can get healthier and more consistent, look out.

Projected AL Central Standings:
1. Chicago White Sox 95-67
2. Detroit Tigers 88-74
3. Cleveland Guardians 85-77
4. Kansas City Royals 71-91
5. Minnesota Twins 69-93

Apologies for being boring and picking yet another team to repeat as division champs—I promise I'll make up for it in the National League—but Houston is probably going to enter the 2022 season as the favorite to win the World Series.

The Astros do need to re-sign Carlos Correa and make another splash in free agency to cement that status, but they have plenty of room in the budget to make that happen with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke no longer on the payroll.

As far as that splash is concerned, another outfielder would be nice, especially if Michael Brantley leaves in free agency. But with Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber and others expected to be available, it shouldn't be difficult for Houston to sign a good one.

Can Seattle make another big push after going 90-72 with a Pythagorean W-L of 76-86, or are the Mariners headed for some serious regression to the mean? The latter seems more likely for a team loaded with guys who hit barely above or slightly below the Mendoza Line. But it sure would be fun if the M's finally make the playoffs again.

Oakland is in a bit of a weird spot with 17 pending free agents, but the majority of the top A's will be back for at least one more year. Outfielders Mark Canha and Marte are significant losses, but the rest of the free agents are expendable. The A's are also loaded with arbitration-eligible guys, so it's difficult to project what their free-agency budget will be. But they should be in the market for at least one big signing.

Speaking of big signings, the Angels will be a real contender if they go out and land one of the many ace-caliber pitchers available in free agency this year. The batting nucleus of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh could be every bit as good as what Boston had with Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez in 2021. But the pitching staff desperately needs someone it can count on aside from Ohtani. For now, we're projecting the Angels to finish .500. They could improve that by a dozen wins simply by landing a Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.

And while the Rangers expedited their rebuilding process by trading away all of their remotely valuable free agents in July, it's likely going to be at least another year before they are anywhere close to legitimately competitive again.

Projected AL West Standings:
1. Houston Astros 97-65
2. Oakland Athletics 91-71 (wild card)
3. Los Angeles Angels 81-81
4. Seattle Mariners 77-85
5. Texas Rangers 61-101

Let's begin this division with a quick history lesson: Seven of the past 11 World Series champions failed to make the postseason the following year, and the only team in the past 20 years to win a World Series and make it back to the fall classic the next year was the 2008-09 Philadelphia Phillies.

So if you're of the opinion that Atlanta is bound to at least win its division again since it just won a World Series, that's far from guaranteed.

In fact, it seems a little unlikely with Freddie Freeman, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall all potentially leaving as free agents, plus the unknowns of when Ronald Acuna Jr. will be able to return from his torn ACL and whether Marcell Ozuna will be allowed to return following domestic violence charges in May. The charges were dropped in September after Ozuna agreed to take part in a diversion program.

Atlanta won't crash and burn or anything. We're talking about a franchise that has placed either first or second in the NL East in 75 percent of seasons since the split from two to three divisions. But we're also talking about a team that only won 88 regular-season games and typically is not a big spender. We'll see how things shake out this offseason with Freeman in particular, but I suspect Atlanta will slip a bit to a .500-ish record.

Who takes Atlanta's spot after four consecutive division titles?

After four straight years of hovering around .500, perhaps 2022 will finally be Philadelphia's time to shine again. The Phillies desperately need to improve their bullpen, but they are in good shape elsewhere with Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler back for another MVP/Cy Young push.

The Mets are probably headed for a sixth consecutive year finishing third or worse in this division. Marcus Stroman, Michael Conforto, Javier Baez, Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Loup and others are all hitting free agency for a team that already has nearly $87 million tied up in just Francisco Lindor, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Robinson Cano.

And even though Juan Soto might be the best hitter in all of baseball, the Nationals might be headed for another rough year. That could change if Stephen Strasburg returns from thoracic outlet syndrome at anything close to peak form and if Patrick Corbin can bounce back from a horrific 2021 season.

The Marlins are also all but certain to be a sub-.500 team for the 12th time in 13 years. They have a handful of intriguing young players in infielder Jazz Chisholm and pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez. But even with all four of those guys playing well in 2021, Miami still lost 95 games.

Long story short, it sure looks like this will be the worst division in baseball again.

Projected NL East Standings:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
2. Atlanta Braves 82-80
3. New York Mets 76-86
4. Washington Nationals 71-91
5. Miami Marlins 66-96

Milwaukee has the widest gap between its ceiling and its floor for next season.

If Avisail Garcia returns on his $12 million player option, if Christian Yelich snaps out of his two-year funk and if the starting rotation has another season in which the five main guys all post an ERA between 2.43-3.22, this is easily a 100-win club. Conversely, if Garcia bolts for more money, Yelich continues to struggle and two of the five starters (most likely Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer) come back to Earth, the Brewers would be lucky to win 80 games.

We're leaning in the optimistic direction, though, and expecting another year of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff battling each other for Cy Young votes while Garcia returns to anchor a solid lineup.

While the Brewers repeat as NL Central champions, the Cardinals should be in good shape for another wild-card berth. Matt Carpenter hit .169 and Carlos Martinez had a 6.23 ERA in 2021, but they have team options on both of those guys and can free up about $30 million by letting them both walk. Andrew Miller is also hitting free agency, so there's another $12 million with which they can attempt to improve.

The wild card for the Cards is the possibility that Nolan Arenado opts out, though that seems pretty unlikely.

The much more likely opt out in the NL Central is Cincinnati's Nick Castellanos, which would be a massive blow for the Reds. He hit .309 with 34 home runs and 100 runs batted in. Even on a team that hit 222 home runs this season, he would not be easily replaced, and this pitching staff needs a fair amount of work, especially the bullpen.

It will be very interesting to see what the Cubs do over the course of the next month. They're still locked into Jason Heyward and Kyle Hendricks for a combined $38.5 million in each of the next two seasons, but they are otherwise practically a blank slate. They had a $221.6 million payroll in 2019, and they could bring in a dozen key free agents if they're willing to approach that number again. We're going to assume they make a pretty big swing, and that might mean bringing back all of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez.

And then there's Pittsburgh, which is unlikely to avoid a sixth consecutive year in either fourth or fifth place in this division. The Pirates did exceed expectations in 2021 by only losing 101 games, but they also traded away three of their best players and have little cause for optimism in 2022.

Projected NL Central Standings:
1. Milwaukee Brewers 94-68
2. St. Louis Cardinals 91-71 (wild card)
3. Chicago Cubs 83-79
4. Cincinnati Reds 74-88
5. Pittsburgh Pirates 57-105

Fresh off a franchise record for regular-season wins, do the 107-55 San Francisco Giants have enough magic left in the tank for another trip to the postseason?

At some point, that aging offensive nucleus is going to break down. Evan Longoria just turned 36. Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford will both be 35 by Opening Day. Brandon Belt is a free agent, but he'll turn 34 in April.

The bigger question, though, is the pitching staff. Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani are all hitting free agency, and it's a reasonably safe assumption they'll pay Johnny Cueto $5 million to buy him out of his $22 million team option for 2022. At that point, it becomes Logan Webb and a cast of unknowns. If they sign at least two quality arms in free agency, I'll be much more willing to consider a repeat as NL West champions.

Until then, we're reverting to what was the expectation seven months ago, and that's a duel between the Dodgers and the Padres atop this division.

The Dodgers do have a ton of key guys—Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, Chris Taylor, etc.—hitting free agency, but you just know they won't be shy about spending. Even if all those guys walk and they do nothing to replace them, they still have a ridiculously good lineup of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Gavin Lux, A.J. Pollock and Will Smith, plus a starting rotation of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and maybe Trevor Bauer depending on his availability after being placed on administrative leave by the league after a woman told police she had been sexually assaulted twice by the pitcher. MLB's investigation is still open, and the criminal investigation has been handed off to prosecutors to determine whether Bauer should face charges.

The Padres certainly should be solid with the vast majority of their nucleus back for another year. They'll just need their loaded starting rotation to do a better job in 2022. If Yu Darvish and Blake Snell bounce back from 4.22 and 4.20 ERAs while Mike Clevinger returns from Tommy John surgery and starts striking guys out left and right, San Diego is going to be a problem.

All three of the NL West's top teams are going to be a problem for the Rockies and Diamondbacks. When Trevor Story inevitably leaves Colorado, we'll see if either of these teams can avoid a 100-loss season.

Projected NL West Standings:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers 101-61
2. San Diego Padres 98-64 (wild card)
3. San Francisco Giants 87-75
4. Colorado Rockies 62-100
5. Arizona Diamondbacks 58-104

Wild Card Round

AL: Yankees over Athletics
NL: Padres over Cardinals

Division Series

AL1: Yankees over Rays
AL2: Astros over White Sox
NL1: Phillies over Brewers
NL2: Dodgers over Padres

Championship Series

AL: Yankees over Astros
NL: Dodgers over Phillies

World Series: Yankees over Dodgers