5 NBA Players Ready to Make the Superstar Leap

There will come a day when the NBA's current class of superstars—LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, James Harden and all the rest—fades away. The league is in a constant state of renewal as youth ascends and age declines. So while a changing of the guard may not always seem imminent, the churning life cycle of the league is undefeated.

Ahead of the 2021-22 season, a handful of young players have shown immense potential and look poised to make the critical jump from very good to great. We already recognize these guys as major talents, but none has been to an All-Star game or made an All-NBA team.

That's going to change. These are the fast-rising, hard-charging superstars of tomorrow. And they're going to prove it this season.

Let's just shove all the chips into the middle with this entry, nominating Toronto Raptors forward OG Anunoby as the first (alphabetically, sure, but also in our hearts) potential superstar leaper on the list.

Anunoby's growth in four NBA seasons is easy to chart. He's gradually increased his usage rate and scoring efficiency since entering the league, with both peaking last year in the 69th and 84th percentile, respectively, among forwards. Those rankings now mark the 24-year-old as a relatively high-usage, high-efficiency offensive player, which is a big deal for a guy who was already the most versatile defensive weapon in the NBA last season.

When perhaps the most suffocating on-ball stopper in the league can apply that shutdown pressure across five positions, you've already got an airtight case for defensive superstardom. It's a shame Anunoby hasn't earned more plaudits for his work on D, but his offensive game is progressing fast enough for him to get recognition on that end as well.

Anunoby averaged 15.9 points and 2.2 assists with a 60.5 true shooting percentage in 2020-21, his age-23 season. Not to invite such a specific comparison, but Kawhi Leonard's age-23 season included averages of 16.5 points and 2.5 assists on 56.7 percent true shooting. We can't gloss over the fact that a 23-year-old Leonard also won Defensive Player of the Year, but Anunoby, despite inexplicably not making an All-Defensive team yet, belongs on the preseason short list for that honor in 2021-22.

With what looks like an improved handle and the opportunity to show his skills a playmaker with Kyle Lowry gone and Pascal Siakam injured to start the year, Anunoby is perfectly positioned for a full-fledged breakout.

Prior to his NBA debut, evaluators were only working with 12 games of footage from LaMelo Ball's time in Australia's NBL. His play in those games revealed a dynamic ball-handler and passer with concerning limitations as a shooter and defender. It's why he slipped to third in the 2020 draft.

Without skipping a beat, Ball rudely shushed those worries.

He shot 35.2 percent from long range on a diet of more difficult, self-created threes than most. His 39.3 percent knockdown clip on catch-and-shoot triples indicated that, instead of being a potential weakness, Ball's deep shooting was actually a strength. Ditto for the 6'6" (and growing?) guard's defensive disruption, as evidenced by a steal rate that ranked in the 95th percentile at his position. There's more to defense than creating turnovers, but Ball's anticipation and intelligence, combined with his length, give him as much defensive potential as any point guard in the league.

Ball's numbers as a 19-year-old rookie were historic. He's the only player that young to average at least 15.0 points, 6.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds. More than the stats, it's Ball's creative genius as a passer and roguishly confident flair that marks him most clearly as a future superstar. His style energizes teammates, lifting their level of play.

Whatever "it" is, he's got it.

We (or at least I) have done this every year since 2019. So welcome to your annual "De'Aaron Fox is about to blow up" notification.

Fox seemed like a surefire superstar after his second season, 2018-19, when the blindingly fast point guard shot 37.1 percent from deep and first flashed top-notch foul-drawing acumen. Elite efficiency seemed certain with those arrows pointing so dramatically upward, but Fox still hasn't shot it as well from long range since then.

Meanwhile, though, he's made gains just about everywhere else—particularly with his ability to attack the basket and either score, set up teammates or get hacked. Fox's open-floor speed is among the game's most dangerous weapons, but he's gradually found ways to leverage that gift in more settled situations. Now with three straight years at or above the 98th percentile in shooting fouls drawn among point guards, Fox is scoring at above-average efficiency rates without a three ball defenses respect.

At 32.2 percent on career-high volume last season, Fox might be on the path to changing how defenders guard him. He shot 39.3 percent on standstill triples, and he should get a rising number of those easier looks playing in more three-guard lineups with sophomore Tyrese Haliburton and rookie Davion Mitchell. Fox was only assisted on 52.4 percent of his threes last year; it's not out of the question that he hits at a league-average clip with more setups and fewer self-generated shots.

Coming off averages of 25.2 points, 7.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds, Fox heads into his age-24 season in good position to play up to the max-level salary that will kick in this year.

For the third straight season, it's time. Fox is going to land on the West All-Star team and put up numbers that make him a universally recognized superstar. And then, finally, we'll be able to end the yearly preseason speculation about when the real breakout is coming. Because it will have already happened.

Is it a superstar breakout if it only occurs over 35 games on a team absolutely nobody paid attention to? If so, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who racked up averages of 23.7 points, 5.9 assists and 4.7 rebounds as a 22-year-old last season, doesn't belong here. 

We're now two paragraphs in, though, so obviously those 35 games weren't enough to establish SGA as a superstar. When he's finished after this season, there'll be no doubt he belongs in that category.

The league's leader in drives per game by a mile last season, Gilgeous-Alexander is basically impossible to keep out of the paint. His unhurried, off-time cadence pairs perfectly with ambidextrous creativity and scoring flair around the basket to make SGA one of the NBA's most versatile and dynamic finishers. He's well above average around the rim but truly shines in the tricky short mid-range area, where his array of scoops and floaters are out of his hand before defenders can get off the ground.

He's a finishing savant, as crafty and unpredictable as a guard can be in the lane. That Gilgeous-Alexander's best skill stems from timing and feel—and not fast-twitch athleticism—makes it much easier to foresee consistent improvement. As he accumulates reps, he'll develop an even more nuanced feel for catching opponents unaware.

And, oh by the way, he shot 41.8 percent from three last season, too.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will not be a relevant competitive force this season, and that's the greatest obstacle to Gilgeous-Alexander making good on this prediction. It's hard to earn a superstar designation on a team primed to lose a ton as it focuses on the future, and there's always the chance OKC will shelve SGA like it did late last year if he suffers any kind of injury.

He'll also have less quality support around him than anyone else listed here. No matter. Gilgeous-Alexander's game is too pretty, too effective and too promising to doubt. Get ready for SGA to pop.

Superstardom isn't only about the numbers. The highlights and notoriety matter, too, and Ja Morant already has both of those locked down.

Few point guards have ever matched Morant's athleticism, a tool he's used to create a lengthier and more spectacular highlight reel than any two-year vet should have. If there were stats kept for a crowd's widened eyes and sharp intakes of breath, Morant would lead the league. His explosiveness stupefies.

The style comes with substance. Morant averaged 19.1 points and 7.4 assists as a 21-year-old last season, leading the Memphis Grizzlies to a 38-34 record and a playoff berth. That's a strong jump-off point for what's ahead, and there's good reason to believe Morant's statistical production will improve because of all the low-hanging fruit to pluck.

Morant can level up with more consistent focus on defense. His speed and bounce have yet to make an impact on that end. He has the gifts to be a plus rebounder who also piles up deflections, and why shouldn't his lift make him a prolific shot-blocker at his position? Shore up that side of the floor, price in modest improvement as a three-point shooter and Morant's superstar ticket should get punched without debate.

If Jaren Jackson Jr. resumes his own growth trajectory and provides full-season spacing at the center spot, Morant is going to absolutely explode.

Lastly, the Grizzlies point guard has already evinced the type of leadership and hunger for the moment you want to see in a franchise pillar. He dashed the Golden State Warriors' playoff hopes last year, unbothered by the championship experience of the team he vanquished.

Maybe that's because he operates like a player convinced he's going to carry a team to that level himself.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.