NBA Power Rankings: Stephen Curry and the Warriors Are Officially Back

We've heard over and over that basketball is a game of runs. In 2021-22, the NBA feels like it's in the middle of a season of runs.

Some teams, like the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns, started cold but have since rattled off impressive runs. We've seen the opposite from others, including the Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets, to name a few.

And then there are the Golden State Warriors. After two years outside the title contention picture, they're officially back, even before Klay Thompson's return. The Warriors being the constant almost feels like a return to normal, though they're certainly prone to twists and turns too.

At the moment, it's not hard to locate them in the power rankings, but the other 29 spots are as difficult to nail down as all of this season's winning and losing streaks (good and bad).

Previous Rank: 28

Record: 1-11

Net Rating: -11.0

Any team in the league would be in a world of hurt without its two best players (though the Denver Nuggets just won without their three best), but the situation somehow feels more dire with the New Orleans Pelicans.

The relationship with star Zion Williamson already felt a little precarious after an offseason of rumors, and a disaster like this probably doesn’t help. Team options, restricted free agency and the lure of a potential designated max extension give New Orleans plenty of leverage for keeping Zion, but we’ve seen multiple players win that wrestling match with their teams over the years.

Of course, in the long run, this could actually help. If Williamson sits most of the season and New Orleans stays at the bottom of the league, it could land another high-lottery pick to supplement the face of the franchise.

Title Odds: +16000

Previous Rank: 29

Record: 1-10

Net Rating: -7.3

In a publicized battle of No. 1 vs. No. 2, Jalen Green pretty much played the top pick to a one-on-one draw with 23 points on 8-of-20 shooting, but his Houston Rockets fell to a dismal 1-10.

This isn’t surprising, of course. The 2021-22 campaign was always going to be loaded with losses for Houston, but occasional wins against other rebuilding teams would be nice, at least for the confidence of a young roster.

There’s obviously still plenty of time for in-season development, but it’s looking like the Rockets have a pretty good shot to be the worst team in the league. 

Title Odds: +25000

Previous Rank: 30

Record: 2-8

Net Rating: -9.8

It took five games, but Cade Cunningham finally had a bit of a breakout for the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, scoring 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting (including 4-of-8 from three). It wasn’t an eye-popping performance, but Cunningham showed the sort of steady-handed game that helped make him the No. 1 pick.

He’s never in a hurry, doesn’t seem to get rattled by missed shots and is already making fairly advanced reads as a playmaker. It’s not hard to see the talent. It might just take some time to translate to production.

Title Odds: +25000

Previous Rank: 27

Record: 3-9

Net Rating: -9.2

The Orlando Magic have shown plenty of flashes, particularly in a recent win over the Utah Jazz. And though Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets humbled them with a 33-point blowout on Wednesday, there’s still much to be excited about.

First and maybe foremost, Cole Anthony has seemingly leapfrogged a lot of his draft classmates early in this 2021-22 campaign. Behind 19.3 points and a 39.1 three-point percentage, Anthony is top five in that group in box plus/minus.

Franz Wagner has been another pleasant surprise. His 13.4 points are decent for a rookie, but it’s another contribution that might be most encouraging. An average of 1.5 steals suggests Wagner might be the kind of multipositional defender Orlando likely hoped he’d be when they drafted him.

Jalen Suggs may be taking a bit longer than anticipated to adjust to the NBA, but the good signs from other parts of the roster should afford him some more time.

Title Odds: +25000

Previous Rank: 26

Record: 4-6

Net Rating: -7.3

For the third year in a row, the Oklahoma City Thunder entered the season surrounded by expectations for dreadful play. And for the third year in a row, they’re exceeding them early on. They could certainly fall apart, as they did following an injury to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season, but winning four of their first 10 games deserves at least a few kudos.

We’ll start with SGA, an All-Star-level talent who gives OKC a chance to at least be pesky against almost anyone. In two-plus seasons with the Thunder, he's averaged 20.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.0 steals. LeBron James, Tracy McGrady and Luka Doncic (for now) are the only players in NBA history who averaged at least 20/5/4/1/1 at the same age as SGA.

But good production from Gilgeous-Alexander is almost a given now. The more exciting development might be how well rookie Josh Giddey fits alongside him. OKC has already entrusted him to be the lead playmaker on plenty of possessions, including ones in which he shares the floor with SGA. He has a long way to go as a shooter (though his form looks fine), but Giddey already leads the Thunder in assists. He’s also first on the team in steals and second in rebounds, but it’s the vision and maturity with which he creates that is most intriguing.

Title Odds: +25000

Previous Rank: 23

Record: 3-7

Net Rating: -4.7

After an encouraging 3-1 start to the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves went into a full-fledged freefall that could get even worse. Their next two games are a road back-to-back in Los Angeles and against the Lakers and Clippers. Both teams are missing stars, but that’s no picnic. Then, they face the surging Phoenix Suns before the schedule cools off a bit.

It’s obviously early, but climbing out of a 3-10 hole in the Western Conference would be no small feat.

On the bright side, while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, Anthony Edwards is showing plenty of star upside. After scoring 48 points on Wednesday, his season average is 25.9, which would be the fourth-highest mark of all time for an age-20 (or younger) season.

Title Odds: +13000

Previous Rank: 18

Record: 4-8

Net Rating: -4.3

The Atlanta Hawks have been in a full-blown tailspin since a 3-1 start that suggested last season’s Eastern Conference Finals run wasn’t a fluke. They’re just 1-7 in their past eight games, and recent comments from star Trae Young might be illuminating.

“It's regular season,” Young told reporters after a loss to the Utah Jazz. “I'm not going to lie, it's a lot more boring than the playoffs. You got to find that motivation to play like the playoffs."

Whatever that may be, the Hawks clearly haven’t found it, particularly on the defensive end. And if players who should be capable of positively affecting a bottom-third defense (like Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish) don’t start soon, Atlanta might dig itself too deep a hole to climb out of in an improved Eastern Conference.

Title Odds: +3600

Previous Rank: 20

Record: 5-7

Net Rating: -0.3

De’Aaron Fox shot 76.1 percent on shots within three feet of the rim in 2020-21. For context’s sake, Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton was at 76.6 percent from that range last season. But after a full campaign of scoring like a center around the rim, Fox’s efficiency there has fallen off a cliff. This season, he’s at 61.0 percent.

Harrison Barnes’ late-career breakout has been nice for the Sacramento Kings, but they’ll need Fox to rediscover that finishing touch inside to truly compete for a playoff spot.

His ability to get to the paint is obviously still there, but defenses are a bit less likely to collapse if they feel like an anchor or rim protector can handle Fox alone. 

Title Odds: +24000

Previous Rank: 25

Record: 4-7

Net Rating: +2.3

The San Antonio Spurs are sort of the inverse of the Dallas Mavericks. They may be below .500, but a top-10 net rating suggests they might be better than their record.

At the very least, the Spurs, though they don’t have any bona fide stars, are loaded with competent role players who can make things difficult for anyone on a given night.

After Wednesday's blowout win over the Sacramento Kings, San Antonio has seven players averaging double figures.

Title Odds: +24000

Previous Rank: 22

Record: 5-6

Net Rating: -0.3

Things still feel a little uneven for the Boston Celtics, despite a solid 104-88 win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Jaylen Brown is out with a hamstring injury, Jayson Tatum is shooting 38.9 percent from the field and reliable scoring options after those two are hard to find.

Still, the outline of a solid team is there if those two are available and clicking. Al Horford, Robert Williams III, Marcus Smart and Josh Richardson can all be plus defenders. The stars-and-grit model has seen some success in the past.

Title Odds: +6500

Previous Rank: 24

Record: 5-8

Net Rating: 0.0

The Indiana Pacers have had their share of head-scratching losses this season, including a gut-wrencher against a Denver Nuggets team missing Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray this week. With 14.1 seconds left and the Pacers down two, their inbound defense completely imploded, leaving Jeff Green wide-open for a game-sealing dunk.

For a team that was seemingly turning the corner after a 1-6 start, it was a demoralizing way to lose a game it should've won.

But the Pacers didn't let that spoil their week, as they played the very next night and beat last season's top seed in the West on their home floor. In a physical game that was essentially ended by the ejections of Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles, Indiana was able to outmuscle a team with plenty of talent and continuity.

Perhaps this will be the confidence boost the Pacers have needed under new coach Rick Carlisle.

Title Odds: +13000

Previous Rank: 17

Record: 7-4

Net Rating: -3.1

The Dallas Mavericks have played far worse than their record suggests throughout the early portion of this season. After a double-digit loss to the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday, they’re in the bottom half of the league in net rating, offensive rating, true shooting percentage and strength of schedule despite a 7-4 record.

Put another way, the Mavericks have beaten bad teams like the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans, while getting blown out by playoff contenders like the Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat and Bulls.

Perhaps most concerning, good offense (a given over the two seasons leading up to this one) seems a world away under new coach Jason Kidd. The adjustments in the way fouls are called haven’t helped Luka Doncic and the Mavs, either.  

Title Odds: +4200

Previous Rank: 19

Record: 5-7

Net Rating: +0.8

Analysis of Damian Lillard’s struggles has mostly been confined to career-worst percentages from both the field (38.0) and three-point range (25.4). Those probably deserve attention, but Lillard’s recent comments on the rule changes and a subsequent video of him exploiting the old regime making the rounds should change the focus.

"I feel like the way the game is being officiated is unacceptable," Lillard told reporters this week. "I don't want to go too deep into it so they make a big deal out of it, but the explanations, the shit that's getting missed, I mean, come on. I felt like coming in, the rule change wouldn't affect me, because I don't do the trick the referees, I don't do the trick plays, and it's just unacceptable.”

Without the benefit of the tricks seen in the video cited above, Lillard's free-throw-attempt rate has plummeted from 36.3 in 2020-21 (and 33.2 for his career) to 16.7 this season. Without those high-efficiency trips to the line and whistles that erase terrible attempts from the stat sheet, Lillard is off to the worst start of his career, according to BPM.

Title Odds: +8000

Previous Rank: 13

Record: 6-7

Net Rating: -2.5

Many of the good vibes that came from national media following a 5-2 start have worn off for the Charlotte Hornets, but there are still reasons for optimism.

Despite a 10-point outing for Miles Bridges on Wednesday, it’s probably safe to say his breakout is for real. He’s already scored 277 points, a mark that took him 28 games to reach last season. Kelly Oubre Jr., who scored 37 off the bench in Wednesday’s road win over the Memphis Grizzlies, looks much more comfortable than he did as a Golden State Warrior last season. And probably most important, LaMelo Ball’s superstar trajectory appears impervious to a sophomore slump.

Ball is averaging 19.8 points, 7.1 assists and 2.8 threes per game. No one in the league matches or exceeds all three marks this season.

Title Odds: +12000

Previous Rank: 14

Record: 6-5

Net Rating: -4.7

Ja Morant’s superstar turn has helped the Memphis Grizzlies score at around an average rate, but that’s probably not going to be good enough if they remain one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

A starting five that includes De’Anthony Melton, Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. has held up pretty well (as evidenced by a 107.6 defensive rating that’s far better than the team mark of 112.4), but the team is hemorrhaging points with other groups on the floor.

Averages of 26.5 points and 7.3 assists could have Morant on the fringes of the MVP race, but he won’t get much closer than that if he and his teammates don’t start defending.

Title Odds: +8000

Previous Rank: 12

Record: 7-5

Net Rating: -0.6

With LeBron James nursing a strained abdomen and Russell Westbrook throwing the ball all over the gym, it’s pretty easy to argue that the Los Angeles Lakers, at least until LeBron returns, aren’t as good as their record suggests.

After squeaking by the tanking Rockets over a week ago, L.A. lost back-to-back games to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers. Then, they needed overtime at home in games against the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat. Over those five games, Westbrook is averaging 5.6 turnovers while shooting 38.3 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from three.

As many have pointed out, Westbrook started slow with both the Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards, so this may turn around. But the former situation required a dramatic philosophical shift (remember the Clint Capela trade?), and the latter only included one ball-dominant star with whom to share the ball. With the Lakers, Westbrook eventually has to figure out how to coexist with both LeBron and Anthony Davis.

Title Odds: +600

Previous Rank: 16

Record: 7-5

Net Rating: +1.4

Evan Mobley leads all rookies in wins over replacement player and blocks per game. He trails only Scottie Barnes in points per game and rebounds per game. And his agility on the perimeter is a big part of why the Cleveland Cavaliers have had some success with jumbo lineups that include Mobley, Lauri Markkanen and Jarrett Allen.

The unsung hero of Cleveland’s better-than-expected start to the season, though, might be veteran guard Ricky Rubio. He’s putting up career highs in points per game (14.3), threes per game (2.1) and three-point percentage (41.0). When Rubio's on the floor, Cleveland is plus-3.5 points per 100 possessions (compared to minus-5.9 when he's off).

Title Odds: +24000

Previous Rank: 10

Record: 7-6

Net Rating: +1.6

The early portion of the season has been a roller coaster for the Toronto Raptors, who started 1-3 and then ran off five straight wins before losing three in a row. On Thursday, they ended the most recent streak with a 115-109 win over the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers.

In that contest, Fred VanVleet scored 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting, giving him averages of 24.0 points, 6.6 assists and 4.0 threes over his last five games. Perhaps most encouraging, he's hit 47.6 percent of his threes in that stretch, a significant improvement over 33.9 percent he shot prior to the hot streak.

Toronto has managed a .500-plus record in large part thanks to its depth, but if the Raptors want to play with a little more consistency, VanVleet maintaining something closer to this level of play wouldn't hurt.

Title Odds: +13000   

Previous Rank: 8

Record: 7-5

Net Rating: +0.8

The New York Knicks’ 112-100 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday was sort of a microcosm of the entire season in one regard. Starting point guard Kemba Walker was minus-22 in just 18 minutes, while his backup, Derrick Rose, was plus-10 in 30 minutes.

It might be hard to coax much more playing time out of the veteran Rose, who’s in his 30s and has dealt with more than his fair share of injuries, but evidence is mounting that New York might need to try him in the starting lineup.

On the season, the Knicks are plus-18.0 points per 100 possessions when Rose plays and minus-10.5 when he doesn't.

Title Odds: +8000

Previous Rank: 21

Record: 7-4

Net Rating: +4.2

Paul George deserves plenty of credit for the Los Angeles Clippers' six-game winning streak. In this stretch, he's averaging 26.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 2.8 threes and 1.8 steals. But the real difference between this and the 1-4 start is the elevated play of his supporting cast.

During the streak, Reggie Jackson, Nicolas Batum, Ivica Zubac, Terance Mann, Luke Kennard and Eric Bledsoe are all averaging between 21.3 and 9.8 points. Even Isaiah Hartenstein is pitching in with 7.2 points in just 15.3 minutes. And Batum, Zubac, Hartenstein and Kennard all have effective field-goal percentages over 60 in this run.

In a season that has already been packed with ebbs and flows around the league, it's not hard to see things going south, but at the moment, the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers look more competitive than anticipated.

Title Odds: +2000

Previous Rank: 11

Record: 8-3

Net Rating: +4.0

After shooting 4-of-19 from the field in Wednesday’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bradley Beal is shooting 40.7 percent from the field. That’s the second-worst 10-game start of his career in terms of field-goal percentage, and the Washington Wizards are still 7-3.

That’s great news for a team that has relied so heavily on Beal’s scoring over the past few years. Exchanging Russell Westbrook for depth is certainly paying off.

Newcomers Montrezl Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma (all acquired in the Westbrook deal) round out Washington's top five in total points after Beal.

Title Odds: +16000

Previous Rank: 4

Record: 8-5

Net Rating: +5.4

The Philadelphia 76ers were cruising prior to a positive COVID-19 test for team MVP Joel Embiid. Since then, Philadelphia is unsurprisingly 0-3, and this is where the absence of Ben Simmons really hurts.

If he were available, the 76ers would presumably have a better shot in some of these games (though, since the partnership began, Philly's net rating is better when both are off the floor than it is when Simmons plays without Embiid). But ultimately, time for Tyrese Maxey to operate as the alpha could pay off in the long run.

Simmons may well have played his last game as a Sixer, and Maxey's 26.7 points since Embiid left the lineup suggests he's ready to assume the role of lead 1.

Title Odds: +1800

Previous Rank: 7

Record: 6-6

Net Rating: +0.2

Giannis Antetokounmpo putting up MVP-caliber individual numbers is pretty easy to take for granted. He’s now in his fourth (maybe even fifth) consecutive season doing it, so we may not appreciate it the way we should.  Just know that 26.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.1 steals while much of your supporting cast is dealing with various ailments isn’t normal for many players.

The more notable story for the Milwaukee Bucks right now (just because it’s new) might be Grayson Allen. With Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday all missing time early, Allen has ably stepped up with 15.4 points and a 41.9 three-point percentage.

There’s a chance he returns to the bench at some point this season, but this stretch has shown he’s ready to contribute for a title contender.

Title Odds: +700

Previous Rank: 15

Record: 7-3

Net Rating: +1.1

It’s safe to say the Phoenix Suns are closer to the right track following a 1-3 start. After cruising to victory over the Blazers on Wednesday, the Suns have now won six straight, and it still doesn’t feel like Devin Booker has quite locked in.

He’s posting his lowest marks since 2016-17 in both points per game and effective field-goal percentage, and he’s been held under 20 points four times. Contributions from the supporting cast, including a career-high 31 from Frank Kaminsky on Wednesday, have helped make up for Booker’s start.

If those contributions persist once Booker inevitably goes on an individual tear, Phoenix is going to look a lot like a team that could get back to the NBA Finals.

Title Odds: +1600

Previous Rank: 3

Record: 7-5

Net Rating: +7.0

The Miami Heat were without Jimmy Butler on Thursday, but with a combined 78 points from Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro, they almost managed to beat the Los Angeles Clippers on the road. Instead, Miami is now 7-5, with four losses in its last five games.

It's pretty easy to chalk Thursday's loss to the absence of Butler, but two of the others could point to a bigger problem.

During the last week, the Heat have a bottom-five defense. It's probably just one hiccup in a long season, but the team is pretty reliant on Butler and Adebayo on that end of the floor. Defensive progression from Herro and Duncan Robinson could help relieve some of that pressure.

Title Odds: +1200

Previous Rank: 9

Record: 7-4

Net Rating: +3.2

The altercation between Nikola Jokic and Markieff Morris was the biggest news of the week for the Denver Nuggets, but their performance without the reigning MVP (who was serving a one-game suspension for checking Morris to the ground) is the most encouraging.

On the season, Denver’s net rating is still a whopping 30.6 points worse when Jokic doesn’t play, but Wednesday’s 101-98 win over the Indiana Pacers—sans the big man—may have provided the blueprint for surviving bench minutes.

For one thing, Bones Hyland seems to have made his way firmly into the rotation. And though his shooting numbers leave plenty to be desired, it’s clear he can create shots against reserves. If the Nuggets can count on at least one player to do that while filling out the rest of the lineup with gritty defenders, they should be able to grind out some positive second-unit stretches.

Title Odds: +2300

Previous Rank: 1

Record: 8-4

Net Rating: +7.9

The Utah Jazz have dropped three of their last four, and two of those losses came against sub-.500 Eastern Conference teams (the Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers).

In both cases, the Jazz were carved up by opposing point guards. First, Cole Anthony scored 33 on them in Orlando. Then, Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell combined for 51 against them on Thursday.

This is a problem that has plagued Utah throughout the Mike Conley-Donovan Mitchell era (though Conley missed the Orlando game for scheduled rest). With a backcourt this small (both are listed at 6'1"), it can be difficult to contain effective scorers on the perimeter. And there's only so much Rudy Gobert can do when the floodgates are open outside.

Title Odds: +1000

Previous Rank: 6

Record: 8-4

Net Rating: +2.7

Even with James Harden still struggling to adjust to this season’s rule changes, it’s clear the Brooklyn Nets as a whole have found a little bit of a groove. They’ve won six of their past seven games, and Kevin Durant is compiling a solid early MVP case.

After scoring 30 points on 11-of-12 shooting, Durant is up to 29.5 points with a 67.4 true shooting percentage. At this point, it seems like KD could sleepwalk his way to 20 points. No one can speed him up. No one can force him into a bad shot. Most possessions are an exercise in futility for his defenders.

If Harden ever discovers new ways to generate trips to the line, the Nets are going to look like a juggernaut. But even if he doesn’t, he’s settling into a nice pass-first point guard rhythm. He’s eclipsed double-digit assists in four of his past six outings.

Title Odds: +260

Previous Rank: 5

Record: 8-3

Net Rating: +7.2

Most figured the Chicago Bulls would have little trouble scoring this season, but some kind of an adjustment period would’ve been understandable. With two ball-dominant All-Stars in Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic already on the roster, adding DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball could’ve been tricky.

But instead of fighting over opportunities, the combination of these four players seems to have elicited the passing abilities of each as much as anything else. Ball, Vucevic, LaVine and DeRozan are first through fourth on the team in assists, with averages ranging from 4.5 to 3.8.

With the ball moving around and all three levels of scoring covered, Chicago is already boasting a top-10 offense.

Title Odds: +3500

Previous Rank: 2

Record: 10-1

Net Rating: +13.1

Some have rightfully pointed to a soft strength of schedule that currently ranks 30th in the league when discussing the Golden State Warriors, but it’s not like they’re just sneaking by these teams. The Warriors are annihilating their competition. Simple rating system combines strength of schedule with point differential, and Golden State’s 9.72 mark there is currently 11th all-time.

That’ll almost certainly come back to earth a bit over the course of the season, but it’s safe to say the Warriors’ two-year hiatus from contention is over.

This team is good, deep, fast and led by an all-time great in Stephen Curry. After Wednesday’s shellacking of Minnesota, Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch told reporters, "The speed, before you play them for the first time, you don't realize how fast they are."

Once the Warriors add the spot-up shooting of Klay Thompson to this run-and-gun bunch, we might start experiencing some 2014-15 flashbacks.

Title Odds: +850