Fantasy Football 2021: 7 Most Likely Players to Bust This Season

In the top half of NFL fantasy drafts, aim for reliable playmakers and high ceilings.

Oftentimes, managers make crucial mistakes with star players. Before you draft a household name over an unknown commodity, take a look at his supporting cast, recent production and the latest on his recovery timetable if he's coming back from an injury. 

Don't hold on to past glory in a new year.

A young player who had a strong 2020 campaign isn't guaranteed to top those numbers in 2021. As always, a club's offseason acquisitions can change the dynamic of an offense or impact the roles of roster holdovers.  

To help managers avoid early pitfalls in their drafts, we'll rank seven players who are most likely to underperform at their current average draft positions (ADPs via Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12-team points-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Each selection listed below has an ADP that ranges from the first to the sixth round.   

ADP: 3.02 (Round 3, Pick 2)

David Montgomery has the skill set to become a fantasy star. He accumulated 1,508 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2020.

Furthermore, he may not have to split pass-catching duties with fellow running back Tarik Cohen early in the season. The latter recorded 53-plus receptions in each of his first three campaigns but tore his right ACL in September of last year.

Head coach Matt Nagy doesn't have a timetable for Cohen's return. The Chicago Bears signed running back Damien Williams, but he's not much of a threat in the short passing game, with no more than 30 catches in a single season.

However, Montgomery's offensive line raises some concerns. The Bears cut their starting tackles from last year in Charles Leno Jr. and Bobby Massie. Rookie second-round tackle Teven Jenkins will undergo back surgery, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

The offensive line will head into the season without much chemistry. The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain noted the unit's clunky performance in the team's preseason finale: 

"Yes, this was the first time these five played together in a game. They've had only one padded practice as a unit. But it still wasn't a very confidence-instilling showing. The offense had one first down on the first three drives. Germain Ifedi got beat for a sack and had a false start. Sam Mustipher was called for a (questionable) holding penalty. The run game went nowhere."

Montgomery could struggle to find running lanes behind a shaky offensive line that needs help on the edges. Without Jenkins, Chicago will lean on 39-year-old Jason Peters at left tackle.   

ADP: 4.10

During the preseason, Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores clouded Myles Gaskin's fantasy outlook. He told reporters the offense will use three running backs in rotation:

"We are going to use them situationally as best fits their skill set and what's best for the team. Myles Gaskin can play first, second, third down, but depending on the situation, we may put another player in there... Malcolm Brown is a little bigger, what you may consider a power back. Myles is change of pace, good quickness. Salvon Ahmed has good speed, coming out of the backfield. They all played well in the preseason game.” 

As the big tailback (5'11", 22 lbs), Brown could handle goal-line touches, which puts a ceiling on Gaskin's scoring potential. Last season, Ahmed logged 21-plus carries in two outings, rushing for 85 and 122 yards in those contests. He's capable of producing a big game with a high volume of rushing attempts. 

Managers who take Gaskin would hope he has the hot hand among a trio of running backs throughout the season, which is too risky at his ADP. 

Gaskin has a higher bust potential than David Montgomery because of his three-way split with Brown and Ahmed in the backfield. Coming off a season in which he ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts, the former should handle a majority of the workload over Damien Williams, who just signed with the Bears this offseason, and Tarik Cohen, who's still recovering from a torn ACL.

ADP: 4.09

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will have plenty of pass-catchers to feed this year. Diontae Johnson will share targets with Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster in three-wide receiver sets.

In the second round of this year's draft, Pittsburgh selected tight end Pat Freiermuth, who caught a pair of touchdown passes from Roethlisberger in Week 2 of the preseason. Last year, Eric Ebron and James Washington ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, on the team in targets and remain on the roster. Rookie running back Najee Harris can catch out of the backfield. He hauled in 70 passes for 729 yards and 11 touchdowns between his junior and senior terms at Alabama.

Secondly, the Steelers will likely field a more balanced attack than last year, when they logged the fifth-fewest rushing attempts. As a first-round pick, Harris should be expected to take on a sizable workload, which may lower the target volume for Pittsburgh's pass-catchers across the board. 

In 2020, Pittsburgh led the league in passing attempts, but that's unlikely to happen again this year. As a result, Johnson could see a drop-off in his target share from the previous campaign (144), which hurts his fantasy stock because he only averages 10.9 yards per reception. 

Johnson's questionable volume in a loaded Steelers offense makes him a bigger potential bust than Myles Gaskin, who can make plays on all three downs as a ball-carrier and pass-catcher.

ADP: 6.10

Logan Thomas' ADP (6.10) moves him into the top 10 among tight ends (TE7), which is too high when you consider the Washington Football Team's additions at wide receiver.

Washington signed Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries this spring. Though the latter just had an underwhelming two-year stretch with the Tennessee Titans, hauling in 60 passes for 602 yards and four touchdowns, the former logged career highs in catches (77) and receiving yards (851) with the Carolina Panthers last season.

Furthermore, Samuel has some experience with offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who called plays for the Panthers at the end of the 2019 campaign.

Backup quarterback Kyle Allen told reporters that the team wants to utilize Antonio Gibson similar to how the Panthers employ Christian McCaffrey, which makes sense with Turner coming from Carolina. As a result, the second-year running back will likely take on a bigger role in the passing game. 

Last year, Thomas tied with running back J.D. McKissic for the second-most targets (110) in Washington. The tight end's opportunities in the passing game could take a significant hit with Samuel as the clear-cut No. 2 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and with Gibson's expanded role.

Thomas will find it difficult to match or surpass his receiving numbers from last season (72 catches, 670 yards, six touchdowns) because of the competition for looks in the aerial attack. He's a more likely bust candidate than Diontae Johnson, who should still command a high volume of targets as a lead wideout for the Steelers.

ADP: 1.12

The New York Giants didn't take any unnecessary risks with Saquon Barkley and slowly brought him along this offseason. Coming off a torn right ACL, he didn't take live reps at practice until August 26.

Among ESPN analysts, Stephania Bell, who's a board-certified orthopedic clinical specialist, provided some words of caution for Barkley's workload.

"Barkley's was not an isolated ACL injury and, as such, it is more complex. His rate of progression—in both volume and intensity—may continue to be altered daily, based on how he responds to workloads," Bell wrote. "I have always maintained his status is fluid as a result."

With the Giants' season opener against the Denver Broncos only 10 days away, Barkley's status for Week 1 remains unclear. Fantasy managers may see a lot of Devontae Booker early in the campaign.

On top of that, according to NJ Advance Media's Zack Rosenblatt, the Giants offensive line "had a rough camp overall." The starting unit features three second-year players in left tackle Andrew Thomas, left guard Shane Lemieux and right tackle Matt Peart.

Coming off a serious knee injury behind an unproven offensive line, Barkley isn't the running back you want in the first round. He's unlikely to play up to that slot value. 

Without a doubt, he will take on the lion's share of the Giants' backfield touches if healthy, but his first-round ADP (1.12) and gradual ramp up from a torn ACL made him the No. 3 player on the bust list, one spot higher than a healthy Logan Thomas, who will have a full workload.   

ADP: 6.08

Despite his recent injuries and pass-catching inefficiencies, Odell Beckham Jr.'s name still carries some sizzle, but fantasy managers need to adjust their expectations for him. 

Since 2017, Beckham has missed 25 games. This year, he's coming off a torn ACL. Last week, the eighth-year veteran took some encouraging steps in his recovery, getting reps in seven-on-seven and 11-on-11 drills, per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal. 

Though Beckham's recovery is trending in the right direction, he doesn't have the green light for a full workload yet. 

He also has a low ceiling for his potential scoring output. The Cleveland Browns field a run-heavy offense that helped lead them to the playoffs without him. Secondly, he has a 55.1 percent catch rate with the club, which is a significant drop-off from his 62.7 percent rate in five years with the New York Giants.

Even if quarterback Baker Mayfield and Beckham start to click, the latter may not see a consistent flow of targets with high-volume wide receiver Jarvis Landry and tight end Austin Hooper—who could have an expanded role in the passing game—on the field. 

Beckham hasn't scored more than six touchdowns in a single season since 2016, so he'll probably need big plays to generate gaudy fantasy numbers. Coming off a significant knee injury, the 28-year-old may not have the speed and explosiveness to rack up chunk yardage.

With competition for targets and his injury history, Beckham doesn't have a predictable target share or snap count. He's higher on the bust list than Saquon Barkley, who could touch the ball 12-16 times per outing in a reduced role.

ADP: 4.03

Miles Sanders doesn't have a clear pathway to a defined role.

Eliot Shorr-Parks of 94WIP believes Sanders and Boston Scott will split touches this season. Though he didn't provide a percentage on the workload share, the Philadelphia Eagles beat reporter made a point to highlight the latter's pass-catching ability.

In 2020, Sanders saw 52 targets, while Scott had 36. Yet the latter recorded a more efficient catch rate (69.4 to 53.8 percent).

If Scott handles an expanded role in the passing game, Sanders' value would take a significant hit under PPR scoring settings, but managers in non-PPR leagues should have concerns as well.

The Eagles have the personnel to employ a full-blown running back by committee. Along with Sanders and Scott, Philadelphia has a versatile playmaker in rookie fifth-rounder Kenneth Gainwell, who racked up 133 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage during the preseason. The Eagles cut Jordan Howard, but Shorr-Parks expects the team to bring him back before Week 1. 

So, Sanders may lose targets and touches to Scott, Gainwell and Howard in pass-catching, early-down and goal-line situations. On top of all that, quarterback Jalen Hurts, who rushed for 272 yards and three touchdowns in four starts last season, will likely contribute to the ground attack too.

The Eagles have plenty of players who can move the ball on the ground, which shifts the focus away from Sanders in the rushing attack.

Unlike Odell Beckham Jr., who's the most explosive threat in the Browns offense when healthy, Sanders doesn't have a unique skill set that sets him apart from everyone else in the Eagles backfield, making his role interchangeable. That is why he's No. 1 on the bust list.

Preseason stats courtesy of ESPN and CBS Sports.

Average draft positions current as of Thursday and courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.