Updated NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

Just three weeks into the 2021-22 NBA season, the MVP race is already starting to heat up, with multiple viable candidates emerging from both conferences.

After a 50-point eruption on Monday, a two-time winner of the award, Stephen Curry, moved up to the top spot in Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker, which is "based on a model built using previous voting results."

Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and Rudy Gobert round out the top five there. And FanDuel's sportsbook offers a handful of other contenders, including Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell.

Using those two sources, current standings and other metrics like box plus/minus (BPM "is a basketball box-score-based metric that estimates a basketball player’s contribution to the team when that player is on the court," according to Basketball Reference), it's time for us to cook up our odds on the race and predict who'll claim the award at the end of the season.

Before analyzing the top five in the race, though, let's look at some lingering long shots. If Luka Doncic or Joel Embiid keeps his team around the top of the conference standings throughout the season, they'll be tough to ignore. Ditto for Ja Morant's superstar leap.

Luka Doncic

Much of the focus on the impact of rule changes has centered on James Harden and Trae Young, but Luka's free-throw-attempt rate has plummeted to a career-low 23.7 this season. And the lack of freebies has severely limited his scoring efficiency.

Still, the Dallas Mavericks are near the top of the West, and Luka's 24.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists have a lot to do with that. With room to improve both individually and collectively (Dallas is currently 21st in net rating), this case can certainly get stronger.

Joel Embiid

Being placed in health and safety protocols for a positive COVID-19 test may not help Embiid's MVP case, unless the time away strengthens his on-off resume (as it often has during rest and injury absences in the past).

Embiid has never had a negative net rating swing, and over the course of his career, the Philadelphia 76ers are plus-8.6 points per 100 possessions when he plays and minus-1.6 when he doesn't. If the Sixers struggle without him (a safe bet) and then surge upon his return, missing these games could bolster his argument.

Ja Morant

Ja burst onto 2021-22's scene by averaging 30.4 points over the first five games of the season. Cooling to 21.6 points over the next five has maybe quieted his MVP campaign a bit, but that early run and the 2021 playoffs (when he averaged 30.2 against the top-seeded Utah Jazz) showed us an MVP-caliber ceiling.

If the Memphis Grizzlies outperform expectations, he'll be a big reason why and could snag some narrative points.

As much as anything, this slide might have to justify why Giannis Antetokounmpo is fifth. And that has more to do with his team's record and the cases of the four ahead of him than what Giannis is doing.

Individually, Antetokounmpo remains one of the game's most steady and productive players. He's put up numbers like the 27.6 points, 11.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists he's averaging now for so long that we might be taking him for granted, but the right context might result in a little more appreciation.

After winning two MVP awards and dominating the 2021 playoffs on the way to a Finals MVP, Giannis is now on track for the third double-digit BPM season of his career. There are 30 such campaigns in NBA history, and Michael Jordan (seven) and LeBron James (five) are the only players with more than three.

The problem, again, is the Milwaukee Bucks' record. We can expect the reigning champions to turn things around eventually, but injuries have contributed to a 5-6 start. And with three starters (Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton and Donte DiVincenzo) still out with various ailments, Milwaukee could find itself in a pretty big hole in the standings before it's whole.

The 76ers, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets all look poised to chase the East's top seed this regular season. The Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors all look better, too.

With an improved East and an injury-riddled start to the campaign, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bucks finish a few spots down from first. And traditionally, it's tough to win an MVP if you're not in the top two or three.

The Brooklyn Nets got off to a bit of a slow start, too, but they already appear to be turning the corner. And with KD headlining most publications' preseason player rankings and now leading the league in scoring, there are a lot of narrative points adding up.

If Durant can keep the Nets at or near the top of the East while maintaining a scoring average around his current mark of 29.5 points, all while navigating the absence of Kyrie Irving and James Harden's free-throw attempts, he'll have a strong case.

But the "East is better" caveats that apply to Giannis also apply here. And Brooklyn has the kind of veteran-laden roster that could enter cruise control at some point in the season.

Durant is 33 and not far removed from recovering from a torn Achilles (though the more he plays, the more he dispels old notions of that injury). Harden is 32. And the average age of the entire roster trails only that of the Los Angeles Lakers.

This season will likely feature plenty of rest and the occasional injury, and the Nets probably won't sweat any of that too much. They're playing for the playoffs. And though perks like home-court advantage in multiple rounds are nice, being healthy and peaking at the right time are better.

All that is to say that there's a good chance Brooklyn finishes around the same area of the standings as the banged-up Bucks, and that could hurt Durant's MVP chances.

If the season ended today, and the MVP was simply given to the best player, there's almost no argument against Nikola Jokic.

In just 31.8 minutes, he's averaging 25.4 points, 13.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.0 blocks, with a 68.9 true shooting percentage. He leads the league in both offensive and defensive BPM, and his 14.3 overall BPM would be the highest in NBA history.

Those numbers aren't just theoretical, either. The absurd production has been a life preserver for a Denver Nuggets squad that's missing Jamal Murray and could be without Michael Porter Jr. for a bit as he deals with an ailing back.

With Jokic on the floor, Denver is plus-14.7 points per 100 possessions. When he's off, the Nuggets are a catastrophic minus-22.0.

Will Barton and Aaron Gordon have had their moments, but this is close to a statistical one-man show right now.

The hesitance implicit in having him third is similar to that of Antetokounmpo and Durant, though. As good as Jokic has been, missing their second- and third-best players will probably prevent the Nuggets from making a real run at the top few spots in the West.

Jokic could very well finish 2021-22 with the best numbers, but this award has often required more.

Miami has come back down to earth a bit after losing two of its last three games, but the Heat look like a bona fide contender. There are plenty of reasons for that, of course. Kyle Lowry's seamless fit and Tyler Herro's rise to Sixth Man of the Year front-runner are among them, but Jimmy Butler's MVP-caliber play is the biggest.

As several offensive stars around the league flounder while trying to adjust to rule changes, Butler's free-throw-attempt rate remains slightly above his career mark. That's helped push his true shooting percentage well beyond average and has him on the doorstep of the top 10 in scoring.

On a team with multiple All-Stars and decent depth, Butler leads the way in steals and points and is second in both rebounds and assists. And his defense, despite not being captured quite as well by the stat sheets, remains a calling card. Butler can be trusted on almost any guard or wing, as well as plenty of 4s.

For nearly a decade, Butler has been one of the game's best and most underrated Swiss Army knife players (he's 13th in the league in BPM since the start of the 2014-15 season).

Giving him an MVP now wouldn't be a lifetime achievement award—he'd have to earn it on his 2021-22 merits—but underappreciation of his game could be played up from a narrative perspective. And if he can keep the Heat at or near the top of the East this season, that narrative will gain plenty of steam.

Treading water until Klay Thompson's return would've been deemed acceptable after the Golden State Warriors' first couple of months of the season. But after three weeks, it sure doesn't seem like Stephen Curry is interested in treading water.

Golden State is a league-best 9-1 with a simple rating system (SRS accounts for both point differential and strength of schedule) mark well clear of second-place Utah's and a first-place defense that looks dominant.

Draymond Green's leadership, passing and linebacking, surprise contributions from Gary Payton II and the development of Jordan Poole have all played a role in the success, but that all pales in comparison to another age-defying season from Curry.

After scoring 50 against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, Curry is up to 27.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists, with a 61.2 true shooting percentage. And those numbers are largely buoyed by that performance and the 45-point outing he had in Golden State's second game of the season.

What's interesting about Curry's case is that it somehow feels like he hasn't quite found his rhythm yet. A run in which Curry dominates the internet and headlines for weeks is likely still on the way. And the addition of Klay, whenever that may be, could relieve him of some pressure, divert defensive attention and give him a few more open looks each game.

If you were putting real money on the award right now, it'd be hard to go anywhere but here (he's the odds-on favorite at FanDuel, too).

Nikola Jokic is currently fifth and sitting at +1400 in FanDuel's MVP odds. As evidenced by the odds set here, that feels like great value.

The absence of Murray and Porter could certainly doom his case by the end of the season, but it could go the other way, too. If Denver does somehow stay in the mix for home-court advantage, it'll be because Jokic keeps up the otherworldly pace he's on right now.

And even if Denver finishes behind a few teams in the West, it'll be tough to deny averages in the neighborhood of 25, 12 and seven alongside a rugged bunch of role players.

Another thing possibly working in Jokic's favor is the voters' (probably unconscious) penchant for repeat winners of this award. Since the turn of the century, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, LeBron James (on two occasions), Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all won back-to-back MVPs.

Jokic has a good shot to join that bunch.

Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado, or Tennessee. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details.