College Football Picks Week 5: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule
Week 5 should be the most exciting and important weekend of the 2021 college football season to date.
There are four Top 25 matchups strewn across the Saturday schedule. Two games come from the SEC, one involves a pair of Big 12 sides and the other will have massive implications for the College Football Playoff discussion.
Saturday's slate opens up with the Arkansas Razorbacks making a trip to Sanford Stadium to take on the Georgia Bulldogs.
Arkansas has the best resume in the sport right now after a home win over the Texas Longhorns and a neutral-site victory against the Texas A&M Aggies.
If the Hogs go into Athens and are competitive with Kirby Smart's side, the national perception of them will continue to grow in a positive manner.
For the Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday is all about making a statement in a rare chance to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Cincinnati already owns a victory over the Indiana Hoosiers. If it adds a road win over the Irish to that resume, it should be discussed as a playoff squad.
Notre Dame is searching for the same outcome. It can solidify its spot at the top of the playoff conversation by winning back-to-back games over ranked foes.
Week 5 Odds and Schedule
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Friday, October 1
No. 5 Iowa (-4) at Maryland (8 p.m. ET, FS1)
No. 13 BYU (-7.5) at Utah State (9 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Saturday, October 2
No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (-18.5) (noon ET, ESPN)
No. 14 Michigan (-1) at Wisconsin (noon ET, Fox)
Louisville at No. 24 Wake Forest (-6.5) (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
No. 7 Cincinnati (-2) at No. 9 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
UL-Monroe at No. 16 Coastal Carolina (-34.5) (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 3 Oregon (-8) at Stanford (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 11 Ohio State (-15) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
No. 10 Florida (-8.5) at Kentucky (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Louisiana Tech at No. 23 NC State (-19.5) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Mississippi State at No. 15 Texas A&M (-7) (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
No. 21 Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma State (-4) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan State (-10.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Boston College at No. 25 Clemson (-16) (7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
No. 22 Auburn at LSU (-3.5) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Arizona State at No. 20 UCLA (-3.5) (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
No. 18 Fresno State (-10) at Hawai'i (11 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Predictions against the spread in bold.
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No. 8 Arkansas (+18.5) at No. 2 Georgia
Arkansas received no respect on the opening line for its trip to Georgia.
The 18.5-point line may make sense from a public perception standpoint, but the Razorbacks' on-field product has proved to us they can be competitive against some of the best teams in the SEC.
Arkansas took down Texas A&M in Week 4. The Aggies were expected to be the third-best team in the conference behind the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia.
Georgia has flown under the national radar in the last few weeks, as it blew out a trio of weaker foes after its opening win over the Clemson Tigers.
Georgia's Week 1 win over Clemson looks less impressive by the week since the reigning ACC champion is nowhere close to the level it was at in previous seasons.
The Bulldogs defense allowed 23 points in four victories. The defense should look impressive again on Saturday, but they will be going up against a team with an equally as impressive unit.
Arkansas has a chance to stay within two touchdowns because its defense is as strong as any program in the nation. The Razorbacks conceded 14.5 points per game and held their last two foes to 10 points.
Both teams allowed under 150 passing yards per game. Georgia yielded 66 rushing yards per contest in September.
Those numbers suggest that under 49 points may be the smartest betting play. It is expected to be the exact opposite style of game that we will see between Ole Miss and Alabama.
Arkansas is not going to win at Georgia in a shootout, but if its defense plays as well as it has, it can have a chance to cover and win in the second half.
Georgia's offense is mostly unproven this season. It blew out the South Carolina Gamecocks and Vanderbilt Commdores to start SEC play, but neither of those teams are close to Arkansas' level.
JT Daniels could have a breakout performance at home, but he has been ineffective against Top 25 teams dating back to his time with the USC Trojans.
Daniels has eight touchdown passes and six interceptions in those high-profile matchups, and three of those passing scores came against a 25th-ranked Missouri Tigers squad last season.
No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame (+2)
Bet Notre Dame as a home underdog while you can.
The two-point line in favor of Cincinnati will likely shift in the Irish's direction at some point of the week.
Notre Dame's public perception is as high as any program in the country after its blowout victory over the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 4.
The 41-13 final score was inflated by a pair of defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but Notre Dame still controlled that game for most of the 60 minutes.
Notre Dame fended off three tests to start the regular season and then made a statement in Chicago against a Big Ten squad.
The Irish's key against Cincinnati will once again be their defense but for a different reason than how important it was versus Wisconsin.
Notre Dame defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman came from Cincinnati, so he knows firsthand how dangerous Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder can be.
Cincinnati should throw some new wrinkles into its game plan to counter the familiarity, but it may not be enough to get past the Irish defense.
Notre Dame held its last two opponents, both from the Big Ten, to 13 points, and it has the best defensive player on the field in Kyle Hamilton. He has three interceptions, two passes defended and is second on the Irish roster with 24 tackles.
Look for Hamilton to take away some passing lanes and to shadow Ridder in situations when the Cincinnati quarterback looks to run the ball.
If Notre Dame's defense continues to play at a high level, it should take Cincinnati out of the playoff discussion and make a case for itself to be one of the top four teams in FBS.
Notre Dame does not have another Top 25 foe on the schedule at the moment, so it could be undefeated and in the top four for quite some time.