SEC Football: Preview and Predictions for the 2021 Season

The reigning SEC and national champion Alabama Crimson Tide are the favorites heading into 2021, even with so many replacements they have to make, especially on offense. In the last nine seasons, the Tide have won six SEC Championship Games, so it's no secret that Nick Saban's team can win the conference any given year. 

But is there a team from the East that can finally dethrone the Tide if they do make it to Atlanta as expected? The Florida Gators got close a season ago, losing 52-46, but they have to replace most of their offense that gave Bama a run for its money. Georgia looks to be the favorite in the East this year, but the Dawgs don't have the greatest record against Alabama recently. Can someone in the SEC West challenge the Tide for the divisional title in the regular season? 

As always, there are a ton of questions surrounding the SEC. Let's try to answer them to see what this season will hold for the conference that's won the national championship three out of the last four years.

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral

One of the biggest names returning at QB in the league had a heck of a 2020 season at Ole Miss. Corral had the most total yards per game (384.3) in the nation, and the Rebels offense finished seventh in passing yards per game, averaging 344.9. He gets most of his offensive line back from last year, as well as receivers Jonathan Mingo and Dontario Drummond. If Corral can put up these same kind of numbers, he could be in the Heisman conversation.  

Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller

Texas A&M's offense will likely lean heavily on Spiller and the run game this season thanks to the departure of longtime Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond. Spiller had 1,036 rushing yards and nine touchdowns last season, one of three SEC backs that eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. Texas A&M is replacing most of its offensive line, however, so that may be one adjustment for Spiller this season. 

Georgia QB JT Daniels

Although Daniels didn't start for the Dawgs until the final four games of the season, his numbers made some wonder why he wasn't named the guy early on. On the season he threw for 1.231 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two picks. We'll get to see Daniels as the full-time UGA starter face a big test early on, playing against No. 3 Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday night. 

Alabama WR John Metchie III

One of the few returning starters for the Tide is Metchie, who had 916 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season alongside Heisman winner DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. He's expected to be a favorite target for sophomore quarterback Bryce Young.

Can Alabama be dethroned?

It's pretty much a central question every year for the Tide. The toughest games on Alabama's schedule are No. 13 Florida in Gainesville, vs. Ole Miss on Oct. 2 followed by a road test at No. 6 Texas A&M the following week on Oct. 9. Still, Alabama could drop one of these games and win enough to clinch the SEC West, so don't be surprised if this happens. 

What will a rebuilt Florida offense look like? 

The Gators get to replace quarterback Kyle Trask, tight end Kyle Pitts and leading receivers Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney this season. Emory Jones is expected to be the starter in Gainesville, but redshirt freshman Anthony Richardson could see some quality reps, too. If Florida wants to take some pressure off Jones at QB, the run game has to improve. Last season, the Gators averaged just 4.3 yards per carry. Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Nay'Quan Wright are all expected to contribute to the ground game this season. Head coach Dan Mullen is known for what he does with quarterbacks, his track record featuring the likes of Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott and, most recently, Trask. We'll see if Mullen can make some magic happen under center with his new QB in Gainesville. 

Which new head coach could make a splash?

This year the league gets four new head coaches, in Auburn's Bryan Harsin, Tennessee's Josh Heupel, Vanderbilt's Clark Lea and South Carolina's Shane Beamer. Harsin might be inheriting the most talented roster of this group, including quarterback Bo Nix, running back Tank Bigsby and the Tigers' entire starting offensive line from last season. Auburn's defense gets six guys back, too. The Tigers' schedule is pretty favorable, but the toughest stretch for Auburn will be on its back end of the season. That starts with facing No. 5 Georgia at home on Oct. 9, Ole Miss on Oct. 30 at Jordan-Hare, followed with a road game against Texas A&M the following week. Per usual, the Iron Bowl is the last week of the season, and the Tigers get the Tide at home this season. 

Can Georgia finally upset the Tide? 

The Dawgs are the favorites to win the SEC East this season, but they have serious College Football Playoff hype surrounding them, too. The likely reason being the return of starting quarterback JT Daniels, as well as running back Zamir White, who had 11 touchdowns last season. UGA's defense, which finished first in the nation in defending the run last season, also gets five starters back. If Georgia wants to beat the Tide for the first time ever in an SECCG, this might be the year against a rebuilding Alabama offense.

Alabama 

Look, I know this shouldn't surprise you, even if Bama just lost a ton of talent to the NFL (which happens just about every season). The Tide have won the SEC Championship four out of the last five seasons. Sure, there are plenty of question marks on offense when you have to replace Mac Jones, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. But the Tide have had to reload plenty of times before. 

The biggest question will be if Bama can dominate week in and week out, since its schedule is pretty challenging on paper. The Tide open against No. 14 Miami in Atlanta, followed in a couple of weeks with a road game against Florida. Alabama's October doesn't look much easier, including games against Ole Miss on Oct. 2—the Rebels hung 48 on the Tide last year—followed by a road game against Texas A&M. Alabama then goes on the road to Mississippi State before facing Tennessee and LSU at home, with a bye week in between.

Georgia

The Dawgs have high expectations this year, returning seven starters on offense, including quarterback JT Daniels. Daniels, a former 5-star recruit who transferred to Athens from USC, is expected to have a big year, throwing 10 touchdowns in four starts last season, including a 178.5 passer rating. If the Dawgs can pull off an upset against No. 3 Clemson on Saturday, they will be the new favorites to represent the SEC in the College Football Playoff. The biggest games on UGA's schedule aside from the opener are a road game against Auburn on Oct. 9 and Florida in Jacksonville on Oct. 30.   

Florida Gators

The Gators won the SEC East for the first time in four seasons in 2020 and had one of the most productive offensive seasons in years. But they have to rebuild on offense in 2021, having to replace star quarterback Kyle Trask, as well as most of their receiving corps, including Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes. 

The expected starter at QB is former 4-star recruit Emory Jones, but redshirt freshman Anthony Richardson could see some reps, too. Florida does get back running back Dameon Pierce, who led the team with 503 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns last season. Defensively, the Gators need to drastically improve to be competitive in the SEC this season. They allowed 30.8 points per game in 2020, which was the most for Florida since 1917! Head coach Dan Mullen's teams have been known to surprise some folks with low expectations, so we'll see if he can make some magic with this rebuilt offense in 2021.  

Texas A&M and Ole Miss

The Aggies are ranked No. 6 in the preseason AP Poll, which is the highest for a TAMU team since 1995. Although the Aggies will have a QB not named Kellen Mond for the first time since 2016, this could be a big year for Jimbo Fisher's team. Under center, Texas A&M will be led by freshman Haynes King, a former 4-star prospect out of Longview, Texas. The Aggies defense gets a whopping nine starters back from a unit that finished second in the country in rushing defense, giving up just 92 yards per game, and ninth in total defense. Texas A&M gets Alabama at home this season on Oct. 9 and is looking to upset the Tide for the first time since 2012. 

The Rebels return eight starters from the unit that ranked 14th in the nation in scoring offense, including star QB Matt Corral. The Rebels finished 5-5 last season in head coach Lane Kiffin's first season in the SEC since his stint with Tennessee in 2009. But Kiffin's second year with the bulk of his offense returning could be a big one that might disrupt some things in the SEC West.

Sept. 18: Alabama at Florida

Florida hung with Alabama for all four quarters in the SEC Championship Game last season, and both of these teams are replacing a lot of talent, especially on offense. Bama will be the obvious favorite, but the Gators should benefit from home-field advantage here. The last time Florida beat Alabama in The Swamp was all the way back in 2006, during Urban Meyer's second season with the Gators, who went on to win a national championship that season. Florida head coach Dan Mullen has never defeated a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team.

Oct. 2: Ole Miss at Alabama 

Last year's game between these two was an instant classic, with the Tide coming away with a 63-48 victory in Oxford. Alabama's defense gave up a program-high 647 yards, too. I've already mentioned the firepower Ole Miss is returning on offense this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar shootout. The good news for Bama is that this one is in Tuscaloosa. 

Oct. 9: Alabama at Texas A&M 

Woo boy, this game already feels like a big one. It will have a similar feel to the 2012 Bama-TAMU game, in which Johnny Manziel upset the top-ranked Tide to put the Aggies on the map in the SEC. This game obviously has huge SEC West implications, and a Jimbo Fisher vs. Nick Saban matchup is always entertaining. Fisher is 0-4 against Saban all-time.

Oct. 30: Florida vs. Georgia

This matchup pretty much decides the SEC East every year, and 2021 looks to be par for the course there. The Dawgs are the favorites thanks to Florida having to massively rebuild on offense, but this game tends to be pretty unpredictable no matter which team has the better odds on paper.

Tennessee: Josh Heupel

Heupel spent three seasons at UCF from 2018 to 2020, replacing Scott Frost when he departed for Nebraska. He led the Knights to a 28-8 record, including a Fiesta Bowl berth in 2018. Prior to his first head coaching job at UCF, he was a longtime offensive coach with Oklahoma from 2006 to 2014 followed by stints with Utah State and Missouri. Heupel will look to make Tennessee relevant in the SEC East again, as he is the Vols' fourth coach in a decade. 

South Carolina: Shane Beamer

The Gamecocks' new head coach's last name should ring a bell to most college football fans. Beamer is the son of longtime legendary Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer. South Carolina's new headman started his coaching career as a graduate assistant at Georgia Tech in 2000. More recently, though, Beamer was at Virginia Tech as an assistant head coach/running backs coach until his dad retired in 2015. He then went back to Georgia for two seasons as the Bulldogs tight ends coach and special teams coordinator. He was on Lincoln Riley's staff at Oklahoma from 2018 to '20 as an assistant head coach and tight ends coach.

Auburn: Bryan Harsin 

Harsin was hired to Auburn from Boise State, where he spent the last seven seasons as the Broncos head coach. At Boise, Harsin had a nice 69-19 record, including five bowl game appearances, highlighted with a Fiesta Bowl victory over Arizona in 2014. Harsin has never been a head coach at the Power Five level, but the Tigers hope his success with quarterbacks, like Boise's record-setting signal-caller Brett Rypien, can translate to the SEC. Harsin's debut season got off to a bit of a rocky start, the head coach testing positive for COVID-19 just two weeks before Auburn's season opener against Akron. 

Vanderbilt: Clark Lea

Vanderbilt's new head coach is a Commodore graduate who played fullback for Vandy from 2002 to 04. Prior to landing in Nashville, Lea spent the last three seasons as Notre Dame's defensive coordinator and coached the linebackers there in 2017. He has been an LBs coach at Wake Forest, Syracuse, Bowling Green, UCLA and South Dakota State. The Commodores have been at the bottom of the SEC for the majority of their school history, the most success coming under James Franklin from 2011 to '13.   

Ole Miss

To be clear here, I nearly picked Alabama. But I just haven’t seen enough of Bryce Young and the talent he has around him to pick them in the preseason. I think the pieces will come together in Lane Kiffin's second season for the Rebels to have a big year. Led by Matt Corral at quarterback, the Rebels also return four of his offensive lineman, two of their leading receivers and running back Jerrion Ealy. 

Corral finished third in the SEC in passing yards behind Kyle Trask and Mac Jones, both of whom were Heisman finalists. Although Elijah Moore is gone to the NFL, receivers Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo combined for 796 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. 

Ealy averaged 5.1 yards per carry and had a career-high nine touchdowns last year. According to Ole Miss, Ealy is one of just six backs to have over 100 yards and two touchdowns against a Nick Saban-coached team, too.

Alabama 

Sure, the Tide are reloading on offense this year, but Nick Saban's defensive unit will be a force to be reckoned with. The Tide return eight starters from a unit that allowed just 19.4 points per game last season. 

One of the biggest returns is that of LaBryan Ray, who had 12 total tackles before missing the back half of the season with an injury. Defensive end Phidarian Mathis, who had five tackles for loss last season, looks primed for a big senior season. The best unit of this defense is the linebacking corps, led by junior Christian Harris, who had 79 total tackles (seven for loss) and 4.5 sacks last season. Harris will be joined by redshirt senior Christopher Allen, who led the SEC with 13 tackles for loss last season, adding six sacks and two forced fumbles. The unit also will feature linebacker Will Anderson Jr., who finished second on the team with seven sacks as a true freshman. 

Alabama's secondary features senior cornerback Josh Jobe, who had 55 tackles, 11 pass breakups and two sacks in 2020. Strong-side safety Jordan Battle finished third on the team in total tackles (66) last season, and sophomore Malachi Moore had three interceptions as a true freshman. Jalyn Armour-Davis and DeMarco Hellams are among the players who don't have much game experience, looking to prove they're worthy of starting spots. 

Good luck passing against this Bama secondary, SEC opponents.

SEC West

1. Alabama 11-1 

2. Ole Miss 10-2

3. Texas A&M 9-3 

4. LSU 7-5

5. Auburn 6-6 

6. Mississippi State 5-7  

7. Arkansas 4-8

SEC East

1. Georgia 10-2 

2. Florida 9-3 

3. Missouri 7-5

4. Kentucky 6-6 

5. Tennessee 5-7

6. South Carolina 5-7 

7. Vanderbilt 2-10

Alabama 

Five out of the last seven SEC title games have resulted in Alabama victories in Atlanta, and in a lot of those seasons, the Tide had to replace some great players. That's why it's so hard for me to pick against Bama when it comes to winning it all in the SEC. 

Now, that's not to say this schedule Bama faces won't be tricky. Mainly, the two games between No. 14 Miami and No. 13 Florida at the beginning of the season should set the tone for how good this Tide team really is. ESPN's S&P+ metric gives Bama just a 50 percent chance of getting by both teams. But even if the Tide lose one of those games, they can still make it to Atlanta come December. In the SEC West, Ole Miss and Texas A&M will be Bama's toughest tests, but I don't see either of them having enough to upset Alabama and win the division outright.  

As for who Alabama could face in the SEC title game, it's going to be either Florida or Georgia, barring complete chaos in the SEC East. If Florida pulls off an upset early in the season and goes on to win its division, Bama will have revenge on its mind come December. If Georgia emerges from the East, the Dawgs have never beaten Alabama in an SEC Championship Game, not to mention the Bulldogs have lost to Bama six times since their last victory in the matchup in 2007.

Yes, picking Alabama to win the SEC again isn't exactly going out on a limb. But this isn't Nick Saban's first rebuilding season, folks. He seems to have it pretty well figured out. This year shouldn't be much different in that respect.