Predicting When Each Rookie QB Will Make His 1st Start in 2021

Ten quarterbacks were selected in the 2021 NFL draft, but only a handful will be making their first career starts when the regular season begins next week.

Even some of the quarterbacks taken early won't be starting in their openers. Trey Lance of the San Francisco 49ers (the third signal-caller off the board) seemingly failed to earn the QB1 job this offseason, while Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears (the fourth signal-caller selected) will be backing up veteran Andy Dalton in Week 1.

That doesn't mean they won't be starting at some point this season, however, as they—along with others—are too talented to keep off the field for long.   

Read on for a projection of when each of the signal-callers drafted this year will be making their first starts in 2021.

In a move that surprised no one, the Jacksonville Jaguars declared Trevor Lawrence their starter leading up to the preseason finale.

The Clemson product is being hailed as the savior of a franchise that has chewed up and spit out a litany of quarterback prospects since Mark Brunell left following the 2003 campaign. David Garrard is the only Jags signal-caller since Brunell to make the Pro Bowl (2009). 

Lawrence will get his first opportunity to show why the Jags used the top overall pick on him in Week 1 against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.

It's an ideal team for the 21-year-old to begin his career against, given that the Texans ranked in the bottom five in total defense and dead last in rushing yards allowed last year. Houston finished in the bottom 10 in points allowed and passing defense, and it failed to make any significant improvements this offseason, also saying goodbye to three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt.

Expect Lawrence to light up this hapless Houston foe and make his stamp on the NFL right away.  

New York Jets fans were initially angry when their franchise won a late-season game against the Los Angeles Rams in 2020, effectively ending their hopes of winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

The acquisition and preseason play of No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson has alleviated many of those concerns. In two exhibition contests, Wilson connected on 15 of 20 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

Jets general manager Joe Douglas described the BYU product as "everything the Jets hoped for" while raving about the 22-year-old quarterback's passion, preparation and skills.

Wilson is set to make his regular-season debut against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Week 1, starting his NFL career against an opponent that recorded just seven interceptions—tied for the second-lowest mark in the league—last year. Carolina's defense also ranked near the bottom in sacks (24th), passing yards allowed (28th) and completion percentage allowed (30th).

This is a fantastic opportunity for Wilson to get his feet under him and begin what could be an impressive career for a team that has been desperate for a franchise quarterback.

The 49ers drafted Trey Lance to be a franchise quarterback, but unlike the two players picked ahead of him, his new team won't throw him into the fire right away. 

Kyle Shanahan is taking a cautious approach with Lance, opting to keep incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo as the QB1 for much of training camp and in every preseason contest. The head coach won't officially name a starter, but he recently said it shouldn't be difficult to figure out based on how he utilized the quarterbacks. 

Lance isn't going to just hold a clipboard early in his career, however, as it appears Shanahan is open to the idea of rotating in Lance on certain plays.

The preseason finale showed what the offense could look like this year. On the first possession, San Francisco scored on a 10-play, 68-yard drive. It was telling how Garoppolo and Lance each received five plays apiece as the Niners marched down the field.

It's doubtful that the team will rotate the quarterbacks in and out on an average drive, but Lance will likely get snaps on plays and packages designed to maximize his unique talents.

Once the North Dakota State product gets comfortable with the speed of the pro game and a complete grasp on Shanahan's offense, he'll start pushing Garoppolo for more snaps each contest. By midseason, he should be more than ready for full-time action.

There would be no better time to work him in as the starter than Week 7 against the Indianapolis Colts. Shanahan could announce the move after Week 5 right before the Week 6 bye, giving Lance a two-week stretch to prepare for his new role.     

The Chicago Bears limped through the 2020 season with an inefficient offense led by ineffective quarterbacks. Overhauling the position was a top priority going into the offseason, and the team more than accomplished that goal.

Not only did the Bears ink a proven veteran in Andy Dalton, but they also got a potential franchise quarterback in Justin Fields.

Unfortunately for Chicago, the team now has a quarterback controversy on its hands. Dalton was reassured of his starting status following the draft and held on to those duties despite some flashes of brilliance from Fields.

The fanbase made it clear which player they would prefer, booing Dalton and cheering on Fields in the preseason. Head coach Matt Nagy didn't acquiesce to these demands, though, officially naming Dalton the Week 1 starter before the preseason concluded. 

That could change quickly, however, as the Bears have a brutal opening matchup on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. L.A. employed the league's top-ranked defense last year and amassed a whopping 53 sacks (second-most in the NFL). The team will be looking to pick up right where it left off.

Nagy is making the right move by keeping Fields out of the line of fire in Week 1. It wouldn't be an ideal confidence-builder for Fields to spend his debut getting flattened by Aaron Donald or failing to find open men against a secondary led by Jalen Ramsey.

If the game ends up being a blowout, Fields could see his first regular-season reps in the waning minutes against L.A.'s second-stringers. Nagy could then declare the rookie the starter for Week 2, placing him in a much more desirable matchup against a soft Cincinnati Bengals defense that gave up 32 passing touchdowns (a bottom-10 mark) and recorded a league-worst 17 sacks last year.    

Mac Jones was projected as a potential top-three pick leading up to the 2021 draft but wouldn't hear his name called until the New England Patriots were on the clock at No. 15.

At the time, it was expected that Jones would compete for the backup job behind incumbent starter Cam Newton. Throughout training camp, head coach Bill Belichick gave Newton his blessing as the starter and said it would take somebody outperforming the veteran to lose that role.

On Monday, Belichick shocked the world when he decided to release Newton, effectively making Jones the starter.

Newton's brutal week began when he had to spend five days away from the team because of a misunderstanding about coronavirus testing protocols. He followed that up with an ugly performance in the preseason finale last Sunday, completing just two of five passes for 10 yards and an interception before being yanked for Jones. That would be Newton's last appearance in a Patriots uniform.

Jones will have a tough test in his regular-season debut against the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins.

The 'Phins, led by head coach Brian Flores—a former New England defensive play-caller—narrowly missed out on a playoff appearance last year. Their defense gave up just 21 passing touchdowns, tying them for the second-fewest conceded in the league, and the unit tied for most interceptions in the NFL with 18.

If Jones can succeed against this foe right out of the gate, the Patriots will be in good hands with the Alabama product for the foreseeable future.     

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the lucky teams that can feel satisfied with their starting quarterback. With Tom Brady leading the squad to a Super Bowl victory in his first year in Tampa and back for another run, the Bucs aren't going to be making a change under center anytime soon.

They know the 44-year-old Brady won't be around forever, though, which is why they used a second-round pick on Florida quarterback Kyle Trask.

The rookie is a developmental prospect and will serve as the team's third-stringer behind Brady and veteran backup Blaine Gabbert. It would take an unfortunate injury for Trask to even dress for a game this season, so don't expect to see much of the 23-year-old until Brady retires.

While Trask probably won't have a chance to see any meaningful action in 2021, he's getting a rare opportunity to learn from a player lauded as the greatest of all time. That should only help as he tries to position himself as the future of the position in Tampa Bay.   

The Vikings recommitted to Kirk Cousins last year, signing him to a two-year, $66 million extension ($61 million guaranteed at signing) that will keep him in Minnesota through the 2022 season.

That money, coupled with Cousins' quality play, makes it difficult for rookie QB Kellen Mond to rise to the top of the depth chart this year. The Texas A&M product still has a fantastic opportunity to learn from the entrenched veteran while positioning himself to be Minnesota's starting QB in 2023.

And although the Vikings only kept two quarterbacks on the roster after final cuts, it appears as though team brass didn't feel comfortable with Mond being the sole backup this season.

The team signed veteran Sean Mannion to its practice squad Thursday after he was cut by Seattle. Mannion spent the last two seasons backing up Cousins before joining the Seahawks this offseason. He knows the Minnesota offense well and could step in immediately if Cousins goes down with an injury.

It's not a great endorsement of Mond, but the Vikings acquired the third-round rookie as a long-term project who could pay dividends down the line.  

The Houston Texans went from having one of the most desirable quarterback situations to one of the worst within the span of a year.

Starter Deshaun Watson requested a trade in January, but the team refused to oblige and tried to work things out with its superstar. In March the first of 22 civil lawsuits was filed against Watson by women alleging sexual assault or misconduct. Watson is set to be deposed in February 2022 at the earliest.

With Watson's NFL future uncertain, the Texans signed veteran signal-caller Tyrod Taylor in free agency and used its first pick in the draft to bring in rookie Davis Mills.

During the preseason, Mills occasionally made some great plays, but also struggled with turnovers, notably having a three-interception outing against the Buccaneers in the finale.   

New Texans general manager Nick Caserio indicated to reporters that Mills must become more "consistent": "I'd say like most players, there's been some good plays, there's been some bad plays. I think everybody has them, whether you're a rookie or a 10-year veteran. I think the most important thing for many players is consistency and being able to perform your job at a consistent level play after play."

Spending most of the season learning from Taylor should benefit Mills. The 32-year-old hasn't been a regular starter since his stint with the Bills from 2015 to' 17, but he was an efficient option. He amassed a 22-20 record while completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 51 touchdowns against a mere 16 interceptions.

Taylor represents the best chance for Houston to be somewhat competitive during a rebuilding year, but he is clearly not the long-term solution. At some point late in the season, the Texans will want to see what they have in Mills, which means the Stanford product should see the field once Houston is officially out of playoff contention.

If Houston is as abysmal as projected—DraftKings is pegging the team to win just four games—Mills could get a chance early. His first opportunity to start should come no later than Christmas, with Week 15 against the Jaguars looking like an ideal spot. 

If he takes the reins then, Mills would get a four-game stretch—including matchups against the Los Angeles Chargers, 49ers and Tennessee Titans—to audition for the team's starting QB job in 2022. 

Of the four quarterbacks taken in the middle rounds this year, Ian Book is perhaps the most intriguing.

The Notre Dame product led the Fighting Irish to a 30-5 record over four seasons in South Bend while passing for 8,948 yards and 72 touchdowns with just 20 interceptions. But scouts were concerned about his 6'0" stature and lack of a cannon arm, dropping him to the fourth round.

It shouldn't come as a shock that the Saints—who found success for well over a decade with another undersized signal-caller in Drew Brees, who didn't possess a huge arm—weren't afraid to roll the dice on Book's talent. Unfortunately, New Orleans has a quarterback conundrum in the wake of Brees' retirement, leaving Book as a third-string option at best.

With Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill battling it out for the starting job during training camp—a job that Winston ultimately won—Book was left contending with veteran Trevor Siemian for a deep reserve role. While the Saints released Siemian during final cuts, they are planning to re-sign him, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. It could be quite some time before the rookie finds his way onto the field.

His first start may not even come as a member of the Saints. According to Ross Jackson of Locked on Saints, the Monday Night Football broadcast team said the team has already received calls regarding Book's availability. With the Saints having a logjam at the position, it wouldn't be a bad move for the club to remove Book from the equation to help fill a hole elsewhere.

If things stay as is, it's unlikely that Book will get a chance to start in 2021.

The final quarterback taken in the 2021 draft isn't likely to make an impact early in his career.

Sam Ehlinger, the only signal-caller selected after the fifth round this year, will be starting the upcoming campaign on injured reserve after suffering a sprained knee in the preseason finale.

The Colts never had any plans to rush Ehlinger into action, as they traded for former Philadelphia Eagles starter Carson Wentz earlier in the offseason.

A window of opportunity opened after Wentz went down with a foot injury during training camp. With an initial recovery prognosis of five-to-12 weeks for the sixth-year veteran, Ehlinger suddenly found himself competing with second-year signal-caller Jacob Eason for a potential starting job.

Wentz healed faster than initially expected, returning to practice after being sidelined just three weeks. He encountered another setback recently, going on the reserve/COVID-19 list for five days after coming in close contact with a member of the Colts staff who tested positive for the coronavirus, but it seems he should be ready for Week 1.

Even when the Texas product comes off IR, he's unlikely to slot in any higher than No. 3 on Indy's depth chart. Eason strung together several strong practices and preseason performances, doing enough to earn the Colts' trust as the top backup.

If Ehlinger does see the field for meaningful snaps this year, it will almost certainly be because the players ahead of him went down with injuries.