Patriots' Rooting Guide for NFL Playoff Implications of Week 10
The New England Patriots Week 10 matchup with the Cleveland Browns is among the most crucial of the week.
According to the New York Times' projections, the impact of the Browns game will be felt for weeks in terms of New England's playoff chances. The Pats have approximately a 71 percent chance of making the postseason with a win over the Browns. Without it, their odds will go from 56 percent to 43.
So Goal No. 1 for Pats fans on Sunday will be for Bill Belichick to dispatch of his former team in the early slate of games.
But it wouldn't hurt the Pats' chances if they got some help elsewhere. Whether they beat the Browns or not, there are some other games that could help their odds of either winning the division or snagging one of the three wild-card spots.
Specifically, these three games should be of interest.
Jaguars at Colts (1 P.M. ET)
This is a game that could go a long way in helping with the wild-card hunt. As it stands, the Patriots are holding on to the seventh seed and final wild-card spot. But the Indianapolis Colts are a team lurking in the shadows just a game behind.
New England is in right now, but they are part of a logjam of teams around .500. Case in point, there are four teams with the same 5-4 record as New England who wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
The Colts are just outside of that range at 4-5. A loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars would be devastating, putting them two games behind the wild-card pace.
ESPN's FPI only gives the Jags a 21.6 percent of pulling off the upset, but last week has to be encouraging.
The Jaguars shut down the Buffalo Bills offense in a 9-6 upset win. The Colts bring a different threat to that defense with Jonathan Taylor. The Bills only gave their running backs nine carries.
The Colts will give a much bigger test to the run defense, but the win is at least a sign the Jags can be competitive on any given week.
Rooting interest: Jaguars
Bills at Jets (1 P.M. ET)
The Bills' loss last week didn't just provide hope that the Jags could help New England for the second week in a row. It was also opened the door for the Patriots to make a serious run at the AFC East.
Buffalo has been the favorite to win the division from the beginning of the season, but that status is starting to show signs of cracks. According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, the Bills now have a 78 percent chance to win the division, but the Pats are the only team with a chance at 22 percent.
At this point, the Bills are just half a game ahead of New England. Typically, you wouldn't give the New York Jets a chance to win this one, but it's worth noting the Bills are 2-2 on the road this season, just lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars and have lost two of their last three.
The Jets defense isn't going to hold the Bills to six points. They have the highest points allowed per game in the league at 31.4. However, the offense has flourished since the bye week, posting 25.7 points per game in the three games since Zach Wilson went down.
It's a long shot, but Patriots fans should be hoping the Jets offense can hang in a shootout and spring the upset. That would give the Pats hope in the AFC East.
Rooting interest: Jets
Vikings at Chargers (4:05 P.M. ET)
The Los Angeles Chargers are in the lead in a competitive three-way AFC West battle, but they could go the way of the Cincinnati Bengals quickly.
Just two weeks ago, the Bengals were No. 1 in the AFC. Two consecutive losses in a row and they are now out of the playoffs and fourth in the division.
The Chargers got back in the win column with a 27-24 win over the Philadelphia Eagles after losing two straight to the Baltimore Ravens and Patriots. It was enough to stave off any collapse talks for now, but it certainly opens the window for the Minnesota Vikings to make the Chargers 1-3 in their last four games.
If there's a team that is set to help out the Patriots this week it should be the Vikings. The Chargers have a negative point differential (-2) on the season and have one of the worst run defenses in the league. They will see Dalvin Cook and the Vikes offense.
It's not a good matchup for Los Angeles, and they are already playing well below the level they showed at the beginning of the season.
Their continued slump could play a role in the wild-card race and help out New England in the process.
Rooting interest: Vikings