Aaron Rodgers and the NFL's Most Likely Holdout Candidates Entering 2021 Season

Are NFL training camp holdouts becoming an anachronism? 

Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, players who don't report to camp on time lose an accrued season toward free agency, and fines for training camp absences have been stiffened as well. 

Those rules were also in place last year, but the COVID-19 pandemic obscured the entire 2020 offseason, and opt-outs were on the table. 

This year could be different, but you shouldn't expect any significant holdouts unless they come from star quarterbacks or superstar non-quarterbacks who can afford to take the risk.

Here are five potential holdouts who meet that criteria.

Have you heard that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers might be traded? That's been the buzz since Day 1 of the draft, when ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the three-time MVP does not want to return to the team that selected him 24th overall in 2005. 

If that is indeed the case and Rodgers remains on the Green Bay roster, there's a decent chance he doesn't show up for the start of training camp next month regardless of those $50,000 daily fines. Let's be real: That's a drop in the bucket for a guy who's earned more than $240 million off football alone, according to Spotrac.

Of course, this could all change if the Packers make a new financial commitment to Rodgers that is to the 37-year-old's satisfaction. But he's got a lot of leverage coming off an MVP season and with a lot of other ventures on the go. 

This could get complicated. 

The vast majority of future holdouts will likely come from players who have been hit with franchise tags. After all, they can't be fined unless or until they've signed that tender. Fortunately (or unfortunately if you like holdouts for some reason), every player tagged this year has either inked a long-term deal or signed their tender.

So our focus the rest of the way will be on players who remain on rookie contracts but are so damn good they can afford to lose an accrued season, and whose fines can still be waived by their teams. 

Like 2020 MVP runner-up Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, who could look at the fact that both Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were taken care of before starting their fourth seasons last year and decide to send a message with a camp holdout ahead of his fourth campaign. 

Allen is slated to make just $6.9 million in 2021, although he is at least guaranteed $23 million on his fifth-year option in 2021. Still, it could get awkward if he technically hits a walk year next summer. 

Here's hoping it doesn't have to come to that, because there's something special brewing with Allen in Buffalo, and those good vibes deserve more time. 

Meanwhile, the 2019 MVP is in a near-identical situation, except Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is owed even less than Allen in 2021 ($3.0 million) before he potentially hits his option year at $23 million in 2022. 

He, too, could look at the deals Mahomes and Watson landed after their third seasons and figure he's earned as much. And if that doesn't come his way before the start of Ravens camp, it's possible he'd use a holdout to make a statement. 

The good news is there appears to be some momentum. 

"I'm a guy that sort of likes to work with deadlines," Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta told the media last month. "The draft is almost over, so we'll kind of move on to the next big thing. We've got other things now on our plate, and Lamar Jackson is one of those things."

The question is, what does DeCosta view as the deadline here? And does that differ from Jackson's perspective?

This one's less likely because Baker Mayfield isn't as established as Allen and Jackson, and he at least makes more than either of them because he was selected first overall in the same draft. 

That said, what if both Allen and Jackson land long-term deals in the next six weeks and Mayfield—who excelled down the stretch in his third pro campaign—sees that Mahomes, Watson, Allen and Jackson were all rewarded after year three? (Same with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz the year before that, although those are probably cautionary tales now.)

Or what if neither Allen nor Jackson has a new deal when camps open and both hold out? Might Mayfield feel compelled to follow suit? 

It's all possible, but it's a riskier move for Mayfield simply because he hasn't accomplished as much as those aforementioned fourth-year peers and that lost year toward free agency is more likely to hurt him than either of them. 

Two young, dominant Pittsburgh Steelers defenders make sense as holdout candidates this offseason, but safety Minkah Fitzpatrick beats out edge defender T.J. Watt here because Watt wouldn't have a chance to get the team to waive his fines since he's entering his option year. That also means he's at least in line for a nice pay raise from $2.9 million in 2020 to $10.1 million in 2021. 

But Fitzpatrick, who is coming off back-to-back first-team All-Pro seasons with the Steelers, is scheduled to make a grand total of $13.3 million the next two years. That's fully guaranteed, but there's nothing after that and the 24-year-old might want to use this opportunity to declare his desire for a deal. 

Of course, Watt likely takes precedence for the Steelers. But if he signs between now and camp, that might only further inspire Fitzpatrick to sit out for at least a brief portion of training camp.