Buying or Selling 2021 NBA Playoffs' Breakout Stars

There has been plenty of handwringing among NBA media types over this postseason's lack of star power. Stephen Curry was knocked out in the play-in tournament. LeBron James just lost in the first round for the first time in his career. At least one of those two has been in every NBA Finals since 2011.

The 2021 playoffs aren't doomed without them, though. There are a few holdovers from the league's last star regime (mostly concentrated on the Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets), but this has largely been a showcase of the rising generation.

When LeBron, Curry, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and others of their era start to walk away from the game, there shouldn't be a talent vacuum like the one we experienced after Michael Jordan's retirement.

Just in terms of on-court ability, there is more than enough coming up to sustain the current level of play. Some of the evidence of that has been on display in this postseason.

When examining the breakout stars, we'll look past names like Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell. They've been special, but it's fair to say their breakouts had already happened.

Instead, let's look for players from that younger group who've find a way to go up a level during the first round and change. Then, let's examine whether that rise is sustainable or just a hot streak.

Playoff Stats: 29.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.5 threes, 48.8 field-goal percentage, 42.9 three-point percentage

For the first four seasons of his career, Devin Booker looked like a classic "good stats, bad team" guy. He averaged 21.4 points, but his field-goal and three-point percentages were both below average. And the Phoenix Suns have surrendered more points per 100 possessions when he plays in each of his six seasons.

Something has clicked for Booker since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, though. In something of a rebellion against the trend of the day, Booker's three-point attempt rate over the past two seasons is below his career mark. Over the same period, his effective field-goal percentage has gone up.

Being a bit more judicious with his shot selection and when he looks to take over games has has helped Booker's efficiency. And that latter, less tangible ability has jumped off the screen in this postseason.

Booker has two innate qualities that helped him eliminate LeBron and the Lakers in the first round. The first, a Kobe Bryant-like confidence that he can steal the show, has been in place for pretty much his entire career. The second, knowing when to push it, took some time to develop.

It's here now. And after his 47-point closeout performance against L.A., it looks like this should be a fixture of Booker's game going forward.

He dropped 22 of those points in the first quarter of Game 6, but that didn't convince him to hunt his own shot at the expense of teammates. Instead, he continued to let the game come to him. And on the few occasions the Lakers made things a bit uncomfortable, Booker was there to hit a timely, run-stifling shot.

Part of this more mature approach likely has something to do with the increase in talent around him, but Booker also deserves credit for this evolution.

He's still just 24 years old. There may be more development to come. But even if he plateaus now, Booker looks primed to be one of the game's best shooting guards for the next several years.

Verdict: Buy

Playoff Stats: 15.8 points, 10.7 rebounds, 79.6 field-goal percentage

Again, Booker's ascendance may not be independent of the improvement from his teammates. It's easier to pick your spots when you know the players around you can handle their responsibilities.

And though his raw production is down a bit in Year 3 and in this postseason, Deandre Ayton is showing he can absolutely handle his responsibilities.

After averaging 18.2 points on 14.9 shots in 2019-20, Ayton went for 14.4 points on 10.0 attempts this season. Rather than gripe about the smaller role, Ayton has become a star in it.

His true shooting percentage skyrocketed from 56.8 to 65.3, and it's jumped again in the playoffs. Against the Lakers, he was 43-of-54 from the field and 9-of-16 from the line for a playoff-leading true shooting percentage of 77.8.

Rather than forcing post-ups or mid-range looks to the big man, Phoenix is now just asking Ayton to take advantage of opportunities as a roll man and offensive rebounder who occasionally faces a fortuitous switch. But offense isn't the only area in which he's shown improvement.

It doesn't appear that Ayton will ever be a Dikembe Mutombo-type on defense, but he's had far fewer lapses on defense this season. When you're 6'11" and 250 pounds, just being in the right spot can make a huge difference, and Ayton was totally engaged and generally in the right spots against L.A.

The Lakers were in the bottom half of the league in field-goal percentage at the rim in the playoffs.

As Chris Paul ages (or perhaps departs), there's a chance Ayton's usage ticks up again. But experiencing this reduced role could help him in the long run. He now knows how to impact the game in far more ways.

Verdict: Buy

Playoff Stats: 30.2 points, 8.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 2.0 threes, 48.7 field-goal percentage, 32.3 three-point percentage

Ja Morant has had plenty of electrifying moments during his first two NBA regular seasons, but the most recent one actually presented some mild concerns for his shooting ability.

After shooting 47.7 percent from the field, 33.5 percent from three and 77.6 percent from the line as a rookie, Morant's splits dropped to 44.9/30.3/72.8 in 2020-21.

That was enough to offset slight upticks in scoring and assists.

In the playoffs, though, when defensive intensity is ratcheted up and opponents only have one team to focus on, Morant played the best basketball of his NBA career.

He averaged 30.2 points on 22.6 shots, 8.2 assists and 6.2 free throws. Regardless of who the top-seeded Utah Jazz threw at him, Morant was able to get to the lane, where he'd generally make the right choice on a kickout, loft an increasingly dangerous floater or try to set the internet ablaze with a highlight-reel finish.

He never did catch Rudy Gobert with one of those attempts at a viral moment, but the desire to attack the game's premier rim protector showed the competitiveness that makes Morant special.

Despite immense talent and experience gaps between his team and Utah's, Morant pushed the Jazz further and harder than many anticipated.

There may be more concerns with him than Booker or Ayton, though. For one, fun as the highlights might be, there may come a time in Morant's career when he needs the "discretion is the better part of valor" lesson.

As a smaller guard, when you get as high in the air as he does, landings can get tricky, especially if you run into a much bigger player on the way to the rim. This isn't a suggestion to abandon the attacks altogether, but a hint of the judiciousness discussed with Booker wouldn't hurt.

Additionally, despite the monster numbers, Morant still shot just 32.3 percent from three against Utah. Developing that outside shot takes more time for some than others. And even if he stays in the low 30s for his entire career, he'll still be in the mix for some All-Star appearances. But a league-average (or slightly better) three-point shot would make Morant a nightmare to defend.

Verdict: (Cautiously) Buy

Playoff Stats: 25.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.6 threes, 1.4 steals, 51.5 field-goal percentage, 40.0 three-point percentage

Dillon Brooks' competitiveness was like its own character in the Memphis Grizzlies first-round series against the Jazz. It was as though the player himself was possessed by some otherworldly force that convinced him that he was 1) the best player on the floor, and 2) going to win the series.

The thing is, that competitiveness isn't necessarily new. It may have intensified a bit for the playoffs, but Brooks has displayed it for most of his career. What was truly unique about these five games was how well he shot.

Over his four-year career, Brooks has a 42.0 field-goal percentage and a 35.3 three-point percentage. Among the 81 players with at least as many three-point attempts over the last four seasons, Brooks' 48.4 effective field-goal percentage ranks 79th.

In the first round, though, those three numbers jumped up to 51.5, 40.0 and 55.7. If he could maintain that kind of efficiency through a regular season, he'd be among the best shooting guards in the league.

Five games just isn't near enough to overcome a four-season sample, though. And since Brooks played three years in college, it's a bit more likely he was closer to a finished product upon his arrival than a one-and-done prospect would've been.

Despite woeful career advanced numbers, Brooks has proven himself as a rotation player. This postseason helped solidify that. But expecting him to maintain the production he had against Utah is unreasonable.

Verdict: Sell

Playoff Stats: 30.2 points, 9.8 assists, 7.2 free throws, 3.0 threes, 44.8 field-goal percentage, 34.6 three-point percentage

Much like Booker, Trae Young was already a star before this postseason tipped off. In fact, he made the All-Star team in 2019-20. But for much of his first two and a half seasons, there was some concern that his ball-dominance, shot selection and lack of size—particularly on defense—would make it difficult to build a winning team around him.

With this particular Atlanta Hawks roster now healthy, Young is squashing those concerns.

His 34.6 three-point percentage may leave a bit to be desired, but Young's ability to take complete control of possessions, get to the line and find open teammates has made him look like one of the game's best point guards this postseason.

The caveat on the shooting percentage still applies, but Young slicing and dicing the defenses of the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers looks a bit how a prime Steve Nash might've played in this era. The search dribbles, lob passes and hit-aheads are all very Nash-ian, but the increased likelihood to take over as a scorer is distinctly modern.

It's not as though this is all totally new (LeBron, Tracy McGrady, Chris Paul and Shaquille O'Neal are the only players in league history who matched or exceeded Young's minutes and offensive box plus/minus through an age-22 season), but Young appears to have refined his decision-making process.

He can still rattle off the heat-check stretches, but he's also more trusting of teammates like Clint Capela, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic and others.

As was the case with Booker and Ayton, it appears Young will stay at this new level (or perhaps go up again).

Verdict: Buy