Final Predictions for the Champions of Every 2020 CBB Conference Tournament
Championship Week is here, which means automatic bids for the 2020 men's NCAA tournament will be awarded left and right in the coming days. Both the Mountain West and Ohio Valley champions will be crowned Saturday, and 30 more spots in the field will be awarded over the subsequent eight days.
Who will earn those bids?
A word of viewing caution before we dive in: When you're scrolling through the many scores this weekend, make sure you have some sort of reference guide handy so you know which games are conference-tournament tilts and which ones are still regular-season clashes. The six major conference tournaments won't get underway until next week, but 15 of the other 26 conference tournaments have either already begun or will start by Saturday.
With that advice out of the way, we've made picks for all 32 tournaments.
Each of the six big ones will receive their own section, while the other 26 are grouped into one of three buckets: obvious picks, coin flips or toss-ups. Those should be self-explanatory, but just in case they're not, the obvious picks are the leagues with a heavy favorite, the coin flips have two co-favorites and the toss-ups are a tough call with at least three—and in a couple of cases as many as eight—legitimate candidates to win.
Don't expect me to go 32-for-32, but I'll do my best. To put into context what a decent percentage is here, there were nearly 1,300 entrants in last year's Jerome—in which you try to pick all 32 conference-tournament winners—and the guy who won it all "only" got 20 correct. I got 14 and that was good enough to finish in the top 10 percent. March Madness begins long before the NCAA tournament, folks.
The Obvious Picks
America East: Vermont
The Catamounts are often the heavy favorite, and that didn't work out so well in 2014 and 2018. But they have also won this tournament in two of the past three years, and that appears to be the most likely outcome for Anthony Lamb and Co.
Atlantic 10: Dayton
There's a solid second tier in this league, made up of Richmond, Rhode Island, VCU, Davidson, Duquesne and Saint Louis. In fact, the Billikens have twice given Dayton a run for its money. But the Flyers are one of just two teams in the country (along with New Mexico State) that is undefeated in league play. Picking against them seems like a silly idea.
Atlantic Sun: Liberty
The Flames have no case for an at-large bid thanks to three conference losses. However, they are the team to beat in the A-Sun tourney. As the No. 1 seed, they will have home-court advantage throughout this tournament, and they are 31-1 in Lynchburg, Virginia, over the past two seasons.
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Not only are the Panthers the heavy favorite, but they also darn well better win "Arch Madness," because four league losses have likely put this onetime bubble team in "auto bid or bust" territory. But if and when they draw Loyola of Chicago in the championship game, buckle up for an overtime affair. Both regular-season games required five additional minutes.
Mountain West: San Diego State
With all due respect to might-be-NCAA-tournament-bound Utah State, the 28-1 Aztecs are the clear pick to win the Mountain West tournament. And given all the recent losses by the likes of Duke, Maryland and Florida State, they should be able to lock up a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament by holding serve in Las Vegas.
Patriot League: Colgate
The Raiders are far from invincible. They have been swept by Lafayette and have lost four times in conference play. Still, they won this league by multiple games and at 23-8 are the only Patriot League team to finish the regular season with more than 18 wins.
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Every other team in this conference has at least 10 losses. Stephen F. Austin is 27-3. Don't overthink it.
SWAC: Prairie View A&M
The Panthers aren't elite by any stretch of the imagination, but they are clearly the front-runner in this league. They are almost in the KenPom.com top 200, while every other team in the SWAC is outside the top 250.
Western Athletic: New Mexico State
As mentioned, the Aggies have yet to lose in league play, and they have won this conference tournament in seven of the past eight years. If anyone else wins this thing, it would be a colossal upset.
West Coast Conference: Gonzaga
Gonzaga has lost two conference games in the last three years, including against BYU a couple of Saturdays ago. Both the Cougars and the Gaels of Saint Mary's are capable of winning this tournament, but Gonzaga won't need to face either one until the championship game. The Zags are the clear pick.
The Coin Flips
Big South: Radford (or Winthrop)
Neither of the Big South's co-favorites finished strong. Radford lost the regular-season finale at home against Gardner-Webb. Winthrop has lost three of its last six games. But Radford did enough to secure the No. 1 seed, which means it will have home-court advantage throughout the tournament. It also has arguably the best player in the conference in point guard Carlik Jones. Those edges should pay dividends.
Big West: UC Irvine (or UC Santa Barbara)
The Big West is somewhat of a hybrid between an "Obvious Pick" and a "Coin Flip." UC Irvine is the relatively clear favorite, but UC Santa Barbara is equally clear as the top challenger to the Anteaters. Our official pick is UCI, but sleep on Amadou Sow and Max Heidegger at your own risk.
Conference USA: North Texas (or Louisiana Tech)
For more than a month, these two teams have been Conference USA's 1A and 1B in the predictive analytics, typically ranking within five spots of each other in the NET. Both times they've played each other, the road team won on a last-second bucket. But North Texas should have the edge as the projected No. 1 seed, because that puts Louisiana Tech on a collision course with Western Kentucky in the semifinals, who the Bulldogs have lost to twice this season.
Horizon League: Wright State (or Northern Kentucky)
For the third straight year, the Horizon League is a two-horse race between Wright State and Northern Kentucky. The Raiders won in 2018 and the Norse won in 2019. Given the lack of strength elsewhere in the league, a rubber match looks like a strong possibility. And with Wright State boasting a 2-0 record in head-to-head game, advantage: Raiders.
Ivy League: Harvard (or Yale)
One month ago, Yale would have been an obvious choice. But the Bulldogs lost a home game to Harvard on Feb. 7, lost at Penn the following weekend and have won nail-biters in three of their last four. Meanwhile, Harvard has won six straight and would lock up the No. 1 seed by winning home games against Brown and Yale this weekend. Got to ride that hot hand.
Mid-American: Akron (or Bowling Green)
Akron had been the clear favorite for most of the season and was sneaking onto the fringe of at-large consideration until an 18-point loss at Bowling Green in late February. The Zips almost certainly need to win this tournament, and there's a good chance they'll need to do so in a championship game against the Falcons, considering these are the only teams in the MAC with at least 20 victories.
Summit League: South Dakota State (or North Dakota State)
What else is new? A Dakota State—South five times; North three times—has represented the Summit League in each of the last eight NCAA tournaments, and they are the co-favorites to secure this year's automatic bid. We're going with the Jackrabbits because they'll have the geographic advantage in a tournament played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. But NDSU's senior leaders, Vinnie Shahid and Tyson Ward, will have something to say about that.
The Toss-Ups
American: Connecticut
In each of the past three seasons, both the AAC champ and runner-up won at least 14 conference games during the regular season and earned No. 7 seeds or better in the NCAA tournament. But this year's AAC is different and much more open to chaos. Houston is the team to beat, but Connecticut has been relatively hot lately and could be gearing up for a big surprise in its final AAC tourney.
Big Sky: Northern Colorado
There's a top tier of Eastern Washington, Montana and Northern Colorado, followed by five other .500-ish teams that are at least capable of throwing a wrench into things. It wouldn't be a big surprise if there's only one member of that top tier still standing by the semifinals. Montana swept Eastern Washington who swept Northern Colorado who will be attempting to finish off a season sweep of Montana on Thursday night. Throw a dart and hope for the best.
Colonial: Towson
Six Colonial teams are ranked in the KenPom top 200, not one of which is in the top 120. While Hofstra has a slight advantage as that top team, anything could happen. There was a similar lack of separation in 2013 when No. 3 seed James Madison won it. Towson has as good a chance as any, considering it won at Hofstra by 11 last week.
MAAC: Saint Peter's
This is usually the "Iona Invitational," as the Gaels have won each of the last four MAAC tournaments. It has been a down year for them, though, paving the way for just about anyone to come away with this automatic bid. Siena, Saint Peter's, Monmouth and Rider should be the semifinalists, but just take a guess from there. We'll go with Saint Peter's, which has won 10 of its last 12, including four victories over the other three.
MEAC: Norfolk State
Over the past nine years, a team seeded No. 6 or lower has won the MEAC tournament as many times as the No. 1 seed, each doing so three times. And the gap between No. 1 and No. 6 in this year's standings is negligible. But let's go with Norfolk State, which is hosting the tournament and has an 11-2 record at home this season.
Northeast: St. Francis (Pa.)
It's a shame Merrimack is ineligible for postseason play because of some archaic rule that forces teams to wait a few years after transitioning from D-II to D-I before they can qualify for the NCAA tournament. And without the first-place Warriors, the NEC tournament is up for grabs with St. Francis (Pa.), Robert Morris and Sacred Heart as the most likely champions. Sacred Heart went 0-4 against the other two, though, so it would be quite impressive if they beat both to win.
Ohio Valley: Belmont
There's little separating Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay atop the OVC standings, but it is extremely pertinent information that Belmont has the No. 1 seed. Because of that, not only do the Bruins get a double bye into the semifinals, but they also get to avoid both the Racers and the Governors until the championship game. The winner of the projected Murray State-Austin Peay game will give Belmont a battle, though.
Southern: East Tennessee State
ETSU is the favorite, but Furman and UNC Greensboro aren't exactly chopped liver. Even the third tier of Chattanooga, Western Carolina and Wofford could mess around and win this thing without surprising anyone. This should be the most entertaining tournament outside the top six leagues.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern
Little Rock has the best record (21-10). Texas State is the best team, according to KenPom. South Alabama is the hottest team, going 8-0 in February. And don't forget about Georgia State as the two-time reigning Sun Belt champs. So, what the heck, give us fourth-place Georgia Southern to win. This tournament is w-i-d-e open.
Atlantic Coast Conference
The Favorite: Florida State
The one-point loss to Clemson on Saturday may have knocked Florida State out of the running for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but the Seminoles could force the selection committee back into a tough decision by winning this thing.
They're already locked into a double bye and should end up with the ACC's No. 1 seed, which may mean not needing to face Duke or Louisville until the championship game, if at all. Not that they couldn't handle either of those teams. The 'Noles swept the Cardinals, and they almost won at Cameron Indoor in their only regular-season meeting with the Blue Devils. But there's no question it would be easier to not need to deal with both of those teams on back-to-back days.
The Sleeper: North Carolina
From dead last to auto bid would be quite the conference-tournament Cinderella story, but would you be that shocked if the Tar Heels pulled it off? It might be short-lived, but it seems like they're figuring things out on offense. They put up 85 and 92 in back-to-back wins over NC State and Syracuse, and they couldn't even buy a three-point bucket in that win over the Wolfpack.
While the ACC isn't deep this year, the short-rotation Tar Heels would need to win five games in five days, likely culminating in three straight against some combination of Duke, Florida State, Louisville and Virginia. At some point, they're bound to run out of gas. But if any double-digit seed can make a serious run as a bid thief, this might be the one.
Our Pick: Virginia
Let's ride the hot hand. Duke has lost three of its past five, and Louisville has lost three out of six, but Virginia has won six straight and has remastered the art of winning close contests over the past month-plus.
The Cavaliers got hot while Tomas Woldetensae was on fire from three-point range, but they have continued to win in spite of his return to significantly less scorching levels. He didn't even score in Virginia's recent win over Duke, in which the three frontcourt guys (Jay Huff, Mamadi Diakite and Braxton Key) led the way.
Succeeding in March is all about peaking at the right time, and UVA appears to be doing just that.
Big 12 Conference
The Favorite: Kansas
Not only are the Jayhawks the Big 12 favorite, but they also have rapidly become the heavy favorite to win the whole shebang. Maybe they don't have overwhelming odds in the futures betting markets, but ask anyone who has been watching college basketball all season, and they'll confirm Kansas is the team to beat.
Even throughout their defunct 14-year Big 12 regular-season title streak, which ran through 2018, the Jayhawks almost always hit somewhat of a hiccup along the way, losing multiple league games in 13 of those 14 seasons. This year, though, they have been perfect (and usually not even challenged) outside of a home loss to Baylor nearly two months ago.
The Sleeper: West Virginia
The idea of anyone other than Kansas or Baylor winning this tournament seems ridiculous. They have been a duopoly atop this league all season, and we should all root for a Round 3 between those teams in the conference championship.
But if some team is going to crash the party and beat both of them, it might be West Virginia. The Mountaineers are in quite the funk lately, particularly on offense, but they can still get after you on defense, and they crash the offensive glass better than any other team in the country. If they could just make a few shots for a change, they could pull off this minor miracle.
Our Pick: Kansas
Missouri won this tournament in 2009 and 2012 before it left for the SEC, but among teams still in the Big 12, only Iowa State and Kansas have won this tourney more recently than 2005. And if you think the 12-18 Cyclones have any shot this year, it's time for a snap back to reality.
Baylor is a viable choice if you want to go against the Jayhawks, but I don't imagine I'll be picking Devon Dotson and Co. to lose again this season.
Big East Conference
The Favorite: Seton Hall?
My favorite ice cream flavor is Neapolitan, because you get three solid options with one pick. And I wish there was a way to "Neapolitan-ize" Creighton, Seton Hall and Villanova into one selection to win the Big East. Separating those teams atop the league and on the No. 2/3 seed lines for NCAA tournament projections has been next to impossible.
But assuming the Pirates can wrap up the No. 1 seed—and assuming Providence can't take a top-three spot from Creighton or Villanova—Seton Hall will be the clear favorite by virtue of only needing to face the Bluejays or the Wildcats in the championship game. The Pirates almost won it last year, and they did win in 2016. With Myles Powell running the show, they could do it again this year.
The Sleeper: Marquette
Do you feel comfortable betting against Markus Howard? Didn't think so.
In reality, you'd be betting against Marquette's inability to play defense, make two-point buckets or win a game away from home against one of the five best teams in this league. But Howard is this year's "Kemba Walker X-factor," capable of putting up 40 on any given night to save his team from a near-certain loss.
Our Pick: Villanova
This Villanova squad is nowhere near the annual title contender that we saw for the first five years of the "new" Big East. But neither was last year's version, and it still managed to win the conference tournament.
The Wildcats sputtered to a 5-4 record in February, but Jay Wright's guys always seem to figure it out just in time for this event. They have gone 14-1 in the Big East tournament over the past five years.
Big Ten Conference
The Favorite: Maryland
The Terrapins are floundering near the finish line. In the final seven days of February, they were soundly beaten by both Ohio State and Michigan State and needed a big comeback to defeat Minnesota. But they are still likely in line for the Big Ten's No. 1 seed, which would make them a marginal favorite in a conference from which no one emerged as the best team.
Not trying to besmirch Maryland with that synopsis. It has been a great year for this squad, and Anthony Cowan Jr. and Jalen Smith are capable of doing great things. But we do need to temper expectations regarding the emergence of a favorite here. The projected No. 12 seed (Minnesota) darn near won a road game against the projected No. 1 seed last week, and it ended up being a disappointing loss for the No. 12 seed. Anything is possible in this one.
The Sleeper: Penn State
It's hard to argue that anyone is a sleeper in a league with 12 teams ranked in the KenPom top 40, but perhaps Penn State qualifies since it likely won't receive a double bye.
The ability to occasionally win away from home has been a big separating factor in the Big Ten this year, and Penn State has been able to do that. It won at Michigan State, at Michigan, at Purdue and on a "neutral" court against Iowa (in Philadelphia). Now, let's see if the Nittany Lions can do something similar, but all in the span of about 72 hours.
Our Pick: Michigan State
The preseason favorite to win the national championship is hitting its stride, and it is poised to go on quite the run. Rocket Watts and Aaron Henry are making solid contributions with more regularity, and there always seems to be a Gabe Brown, Malik Hall or Kyle Ahrens pitching in with an impressive performance as of late.
Michigan State was tough to beat when Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman were the only guys opponents needed to worry about, but this team is operating at a different level. The Spartans won't be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but it's starting to feel like this could be a repeat of 2014, when both Michigan State and Louisville were among the betting favorites to win it all, despite earning No. 4 seeds.
Pac-12 Conference
The Favorite: Oregon
While UCLA would be the No. 1 seed if the tournament started today, Oregon will likely win its remaining home games against Cal and Stanford to lock up that top spot. Even if the Ducks land at No. 2, though, they'll still be the favorite.
Senior point guard Payton Pritchard is one of the most valuable and most experienced players in the nation, and he's no one-man show. Will Richardson has blossomed into quite the three-point sniper over the past month, and if Chris Duarte is able to hurry back from a broken pinkie finger, that's another double-digit scorer and quality defender at Oregon's disposal.
The Sleeper: Washington
Despite ranking dead last in the Pac-12 standings, the predictive metrics still deem Washington a team worthy of bubble consideration. KenPom has the Huskies at No. 59, which is only slightly behind likely tournament teams Arizona State and USC and well ahead of UCLA.
Since losing starting point guard Quade Green to academic ineligibility, U-Dub has developed a nasty habit of losing close games. But that means it has been right there in the closing moments of just about every loss. If that luck finally turns in their favor, the Huskies could win a conference tournament in which there are no particularly great teams.
Our Pick: UCLA
The Bruins have won 11 of their last 13 games, including season sweeps of Arizona and Colorado. Freshman point guard Tyger Campbell was inconsistent for the first three months of the season, but he averaged 12.0 points and 7.1 assists against 2.1 turnovers in February.
If that guy keeps showing up and getting the best out of the talent surrounding him, UCLA legitimately might be the best team in the Pac-12. At any rate, there's no question it has been for the past six weeks.
Southeastern Conference
The Favorite: Kentucky
There were many times early in the season when it felt as though Kentucky might not figure it out. The home loss to Evansville was, of course, the most alarming. There were also bad losses to Utah and South Carolina and questionable efforts against the likes of Utah Valley, UAB and Alabama.
But if there's a team other than Kansas that is hotter than Kentucky, please, step forward. (Tuesday's home loss to Tennessee was UK's first in more than a month.) The Wildcats aren't typically blowing out opponents, but they are lethal from the free-throw line and have a knack for finishing strong. It doesn't hurt that Immanuel Quickley is making a late push for National Player of the Year, having averaged 21.3 points per game in February.
The Sleeper: Alabama
Alabama has five players averaging at least four three-point attempts per game, and it can hang with anyone when a decent percentage of those shots are falling. The Crimson Tide took both Auburn and Florida to overtime on the road before losing those games, and they likely would have won the road contest against Kentucky if it hadn't been their worst shooting performance of the season (4-of-21 from three).
They will likely face Texas A&M (which they lost to February 19) in the No. 8/No. 9 game for the right to draw Kentucky in the quarterfinals, so the path isn't favorable. But if they catch fire from deep, anything can happen.
Our Pick: Kentucky
The Wildcats have won six of the last 10 SEC tournaments, and they were the runner-up in two of the other four. Picking against them in any given year seems like a poor decision, but especially this year when they are surging into the postseason and no one else in the conference looks like a threat to reach the Sweet 16.
Kentucky will probably win this league by at least a three-game margin while each of the other five major conferences figures to go down to the wire. That doesn't guarantee the Wildcats will win the SEC tournament, but it arguably makes them the biggest favorite among the top six leagues.